Latest news with #GregoryBrew
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- General
- Yahoo
F-35 Had To Maneuver To Evade Houthi Surface-To-Air Missile: U.S. Official
A U.S. F-35 stealth fighter had to take evasive maneuvers to avoid being hit by Houthi surface-to-air (SAM) missiles, a U.S. official told The War Zone. 'They got close enough that the [F-35] had to maneuver,' the official said. You can read more about the Houthis' air defense capabilities in our deep dive here. The comments partially confirm earlier reporting by The New York Times about what transpired during the U.S. campaign against the Houthis, known as Operation Rough Rider, that was launched March 15. 'In those first 30 days, the Houthis shot down seven American MQ-9 drones (around $30 million each), hampering Central Command's ability to track and strike the militant group,' the publication reported on Monday. 'Several American F-16s and an F-35 fighter jet were nearly struck by Houthi air defenses, making real the possibility of American casualties, multiple U.S. officials said. Lots of interesting takeaways from this piece, but the winner has to be "multiple US officials" confirming the Houthis nearly shot down an F-35, the most advanced aircraft ever built. — Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) May 12, 2025 The U.S. official we spoke with could not confirm that the F-16s came under fire. 'There is no indication that F-16s were targeted or anything got close to them during Operation Rough Rider, where they had to maneuver,' said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. 'That doesn't mean it didn't happen.' The exact date of the incident was not provided. Also unclear is whether the F-35 in question was an Air Force variant or one flown by the Navy or Marines. While F-35As from Hill Air Force Base arrived in the Middle East in March, the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, which is in the region, operates F-35C variants. Aircraft Carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) with its air wing consisting of F-35C Lightning IIs works alongside the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. — U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 10, 2025 In addition to the F-35 near-miss, the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman lost two F/A 18 Super Hornets. On May 6, a Super Hornet crashed into the sea during its attempt to land. Both the pilot and the Weapon System Officer (WSO) were able to eject and were recovered by helicopter with only minor injuries. TWZ confirmed that the arrestment failed on touch down and the jet careened off the deck. MH-60 Seahawk squadron HSC-11 made the rescue and the F/A-18F Super Hornet was from VFA-11, the Red Rippers. That was the second loss of a Super Hornet from the carrier in just a week. The other loss occurred while the vessel was evading a Houthi attack, with the Super Hornet rolling off the deck into the sea. Fortunately, nobody was hurt in that incident. UPDATE: A US official said that initial reports from the scene indicated that the Truman made a hard turn to evade Houthi fire, which contributed to the fighter jet falling overboard. — Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) April 28, 2025 These incidents have all come amid the Rough Rider campaign that U.S. President Donald Trump halted on May 8. The operation 'has cost America more than $1 billion since March, including the thousands of bombs and missiles used in strikes,' NBC News reported at the time. 'A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, said in a statement to The New York Times that 'President Trump successfully delivered a cease-fire, which is another good deal for America and our security,'' the publication reported in its May 12 story. 'She added that the U.S. military had carried out more than 1,100 strikes, killing hundreds of Houthi fighters and destroying their weapons and equipment.' .@POTUS: 'Following repeated attacks on American ships and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the United States military launched more than 1,100 strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. As a result, the Houthis agreed to stop… We hit them hard, we got what we came for, and then, we… — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 13, 2025 However, so 'many precision munitions were being used, especially advanced long-range ones, that some Pentagon contingency planners were growing increasingly concerned about overall stocks and the implications for any situation in which the United States might have to ward off an attempted invasion of Taiwan by China,' the Times explained. 'By Day 31, Mr. Trump, ever leery of drawn-out military entanglements in the Middle East, demanded a progress report, according to administration officials,' the Times added. 'But the results were not there. The United States had not even established air superiority over the Houthis. Instead, what was emerging after 30 days of a stepped-up campaign against the Yemeni group was another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region.' The War Zone cannot confirm the conclusions drawn in the New York Times piece. 'The culmination of the ceasefire accord underscored how quickly the Trump administration moved on initial intelligence to secure what in March seemed unthinkable to many experts in the short term: a Houthi declaration it would stop striking U.S. ships,' Reuters reported Tuesday. 'Trump's unconventional approach included bypassing close U.S. ally Israel, which is not covered by the agreement, and which was not told ahead of time, an Israeli official and a person familiar with the matter said.' As we previously reported, Operation Rough Rider included the use of U.S. Air Force B-2A Spirit stealth bombers to attack Houthi targets in Yemen. You can read more about the deployment of B-2s to the remote Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia here. All told, Operation Rough Rider attacks 'have destroyed multiple command-and-control facilities, air defense systems, advanced weapons manufacturing facilities, and advanced weapons storage locations,' CENTCOM said in an April 27 post on X. 'These storage facilities housed advanced conventional weapons, including anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, and uncrewed surface vessels, which were employed in Houthi terrorist attacks on international shipping lanes.' — U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 27, 2025 Trump ordered Operation Rough Rider in response to Houthi attacks on Red Sea-area shipping. They began in November 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians over the latest war between Israel and Gaza. They have forced ships to avoid the Suez Canal for a far longer route around Africa, boosting cargo costs by nearly $200 billion. The Houthis' attacks sank two vessels, damaged many others, caused the death of four mariners, and led to many being held hostage after a ship was seized. There were also a lot of Houthi weapons that missed their targets entirely. In addition to attacking shipping, the Houthis have also fired missiles and drones at Israel. You can read more about the Houthis' arsenal in our deep dive here. 'Houthi terrorists have launched missiles and one-way attack drones at U.S. warships over 170 times, and at commercial vessels 145 times since 2023,' Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told reporters at a March 17 press conference. The Houthis have attacked US warships 174 times & commercial vessels 145 times since put American lives at previous administration let this go on for years with next to no President Trump & Secretary Hegseth's leadership, that ends now. — Sean Parnell (@SeanParnellATSD) March 15, 2025 The fact that even the Houthis, with their relatively rudimentary air defenses, were able to keep many U.S. aircraft from making direct attacks, with a heavy reliance on valuable standoff weapons and even stealth bombers instead, certainly has broader implications that we will be exploring further in future articles. Contact the author: howard@
New York Times
03-05-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Oil Prices Are Falling. Here's Where That Could Spell Trouble.
Oil producing countries are bracing for a bumpy ride this year, with a precipitous drop in prices to the lowest levels in four years seen as the initial, alarming sign of looming turmoil. A price drop benefits any country seeking to cut its fuel bill. But in oil producing nations, lower prices can feed economic troubles, and sometimes political unrest, as governments slash spending. Analysts who had already been predicting lower oil prices because of softening demand amid increased global production said the possibility of a tariff trade war and the overall climate of uncertainty could well deepen producers' woes. 'The steep price dive and overall volatility is sending a very strong signal that the global economy is going to be rattled this year and that will translate into a lower demand for oil,' said Gregory Brew, a specialist on the geopolitics of oil and gas with the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis organization. Wealthy producers may be able to cushion the blow Earlier this year, the price for benchmark crude held steady around $73 a barrel, high enough to sustain the budgets of most producing nations. But some countries, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, base ambitious development plans on a price of at least $90 a barrel, analysts say. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have earmarked hundreds of billions of dollars for giant projects to try to diversify their economies away from oil. Although Saudi Arabia pays for its Vision 2030 development program outside its annual budget, the huge, futuristic city project, Neom, depends on oil revenues. To maintain those plans amid lower prices, these richer Gulf nations either have to draw money from their gargantuan reserve funds or borrow, analysts said. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Kuwait all have easy access to international credit, and can sustain that for years with citizens unlikely to feel the effects, analysts said. A different story for Iran and Iraq In Iran, international sanctions have whittled its oil customers down. There's China, but its demand for oil has slackened markedly amid an economic slowdown. And there are small independent refineries vulnerable to secondary sanctions, which the United States has imposed against two of them in recent months. To attract buyers, Iran will quite likely have to offer steep discounts, analysts said. Iran is negotiating with Washington over the future of its nuclear program; any agreement could bring sanctions relief. But that is unlikely this year. Iran also faces increasing pressure to cut spending by lowering its domestic energy subsidies. When it did that in 2019, antigovernment riots erupted and were put down with force. 'Keeping energy prices very low is extremely important because they know that if they don't, then they are at a relatively high risk of uprisings, riots and demonstrations,' said Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at the research firm Kpler. Next door, Iraq depends on oil for an estimated 80 percent of government revenue, so a drop in price would force it to take measures like not paying public sector salaries for chunks of time, a step sure to create domestic discontent. Since the country is not under sanctions, it too can borrow internationally to cover its bills, although that is costly. Vulnerability in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela Libya's two governments each hold a different half of the country. One runs the bank that takes in oil payments from abroad and the other controls the oil fields. Any price drop would likely ratchet up tensions between the two as they jockey over the revenue, analysts said. Nigeria's economy remains terribly vulnerable to a drop in oil revenue, on which it depends to help subsidize energy prices. A new, almost completed private refinery could mitigate the kind of fuel supply problems that can spark political unrest. Aside from Iran, the other global producer most exposed to price volatility is Venezuela, whose economy collapsed during the drop in prices in 2014-15. Public sector businesses and a bloated government payroll were so dependent on high oil prices that when they collapsed, analysts said, the ensuing economic problems sparked widespread protests that the government put down violently. Help from Russia and Iran has helped leaven the potential fallout this time around, since increased production and refinery capacity mean Venezuela is unlikely to face the kind of fuel shortages that caused widespread blackouts and fueled public anger. And then, there's Russia In Russia, about one third of the federal budget, predicated on about $70 a barrel for oil, comes from energy revenues. With sanctions, Russia discounts its oil by about $10 a barrel; a $60 price matches the price cap imposed in 2022 after it invaded Ukraine. Robust oil and gas sales, especially to China and India, have helped insulate ordinary Russians from much economic fallout from the war. The Kremlin has already eaten into its reserve funds, however, and a further price drop would make paying for the war, and everything else, challenging. Moscow probably still has enough cash reserves to muddle through, but in the short term, there could be pain, analysts said.
