Latest news with #Gruenwald
Times of Oman
02-05-2025
- Business
- Times of Oman
S&P cuts US growth forecast sharply but rules out chances of a recession
Washington DC: S&P Global Ratings has lowered the US GDP forecast for 2025, sharply by 50 basis points to 1.5 per cent, while raising its inflation forecast. For 2026, the US growth projection has been lowered by 20 basis points to 1.7 per cent. While there is an increased risk to the downside across all regions but S&P does not anticipate a material slowdown in growth. "We see a material slowdown in growth, but do not foresee a US recession at this juncture," it said. This growth projection by the rating agency S&P comes amid uncertainties arising out of the reciprocal tariffs announced by the US. Along with the US, S&P today lowered growth projections for several other large countries - India, Canada, Europe, Germany, Italy, the UK, China, Japan, among others. "A seismic shift in US trade policy has added to the uncertainty that has roiled markets and raised the specter of a global economic slowdown," S&P argued in its Global Macro Update. To help understand the potential effects, S&P has updated its macro view, including GDP growth and inflation forecasts and chances of a recession. "The jump in US import tariffs, trading partner retaliation, ongoing concessions, and subsequent market turbulence constitute a shock to the system centered on confidence and market prices. The real economy is sure to follow, but by how much?" said S&P Global Ratings Global Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald. "The risks to our baseline remain firmly on the downside in the form of a stronger-than-anticipated spillover from the tariff shock to the real economy. The longer-term configuration of the global economy, including the role of the U.S., is also less certain," said Gruenwald. Since assuming office for his second term, President Donald Trump has reiterated his stance on tariff reciprocity, emphasising that the United States will match tariffs imposed by other countries, including India, to ensure what he termed "fair trade". The tariffs have been kept in abeyance for 90 days, as several countries have reached out to the US administration for a trade deal. The April 2 tariffs and their aftermath have led S&P to lower the GDP growth forecasts. It reiterates that there are no winners in a scenario of escalating protectionist policies.
Time of India
02-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
S&P cuts US growth forecast sharply but rules out chances of a recession
S&P Global Ratings has lowered the US GDP forecast for 2025, sharply by 50 basis points to 1.5 per cent, while raising its inflation forecast . For 2026, the US growth projection has been lowered by 20 basis points to 1.7 per cent. #Pahalgam Terrorist Attack India's Rafale-M deal may turn up the heat on Pakistan China's support for Pakistan may be all talk, no action India brings grounded choppers back in action amid LoC tensions While there is an increased risk to the downside across all regions but S&P does not anticipate a material slowdown in growth. "We see a material slowdown in growth, but do not foresee a US recession at this juncture," it said. This growth projection by the rating agency S&P comes amid uncertainties arising out of the reciprocal tariffs announced by the US. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 3 Reasons to Plug This Into Your Home Today elecTrick - Save upto 80% on Power Bill Learn More Undo Along with the US, S&P today lowered growth projections for several other large countries - India, Canada, Europe, Germany, Italy, the UK, China, Japan, among others. "A seismic shift in US trade policy has added to the uncertainty that has roiled markets and raised the specter of a global economic slowdown," S&P argued in its Global Macro Update. Live Events To help understand the potential effects, S&P has updated its macro view, including GDP growth and inflation forecasts and chances of a recession. "The jump in US import tariffs , trading partner retaliation, ongoing concessions, and subsequent market turbulence constitute a shock to the system centered on confidence and market prices. The real economy is sure to follow, but by how much?" said S&P Global Ratings Global Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald. "The risks to our baseline remain firmly on the downside in the form of a stronger-than-anticipated spillover from the tariff shock to the real economy. The longer-term configuration of the global economy, including the role of the U.S., is also less certain," said Gruenwald. Since assuming office for his second term, President Donald Trump has reiterated his stance on tariff reciprocity, emphasising that the United States will match tariffs imposed by other countries, including India, to ensure what he termed "fair trade". The tariffs have been kept in abeyance for 90 days, as several countries have reached out to the US administration for a trade deal. The April 2 tariffs and their aftermath have led S&P to lower the GDP growth forecasts. It reiterates that there are no winners in a scenario of escalating protectionist policies.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Manufacturing activity hits 5-month low as Trump tariffs leave businesses in 'state of near paralysis'
US manufacturing activity slid to a five-month low in April as President Trump's tariffs continued to create uncertainty for businesses. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April, below the 49 seen the month prior. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the sector. The ISM's prices paid index for the sector came in at 69.8, roughly flat compared to the prior month. Meanwhile, new orders increased to a reading of 47.2, above the 45.2 seen in March. "In April, U.S. manufacturing activity slipped marginally further into contraction after expanding only marginally in February," Institute for Supply Management chair Timothy Fiore said in a press release. "Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, conditions that are not considered positive for economic growth." Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs The ISM release includes comments from survey respondents across various industries. Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients on Thursday that nearly all of the comments "described a state of near paralysis" as businesses struggle to account for the changing tariff policies. "The tone of these comments suggests that business planning is impossible for the majority of manufacturers, irrespective of their industry specialty," Simons wrote. "Frankly, it is a surprise that the index levels are as high as they are. These comments are consistent with a PMI reading in the 20s or 30s." In a separate release on Thursday, S&P Global's manufacturing data showed activity held flat at a reading of 50.2 in April. Meanwhile, S&P Global noted that tariff impacts boosted both input and selling costs. "It tells me that this process that started with the policy uncertainty and then moved to the markets is now starting to show up in the real data," S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald told Yahoo Finance. "That's kind of the last leg of this transmission." Gruenwald added that the "key variable" for the economy moving forward will be whether or not the labor market deteriorates further. "If you want to differentiate between the slowdown scenario and the recession scenario, it's going to center on the labor market," Gruenwald said. "So if we start to see cracks in the labor market, that's going to take us into the recession scenario. Not there yet, but we're starting to see a little bit of weakness." Read more: What is a recession, and how does it impact you? New data out this week has shown further signs of cooling in the labor market. ADP reported that private payrolls grew by just 62,000 in April, the smallest increase since July 2024. Meanwhile, a separate release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings hit a four-month low at the end of March and are hovering near their lowest level since December 2020. On Friday, the April jobs report is expected to show 135,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Manufacturing activity hits 5-month low as Trump tariffs leave businesses in 'state of near paralysis'
US manufacturing activity slid to a five-month low in April as President Trump's tariffs continued to create uncertainty for businesses. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April, below the 49 seen the month prior. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the sector. The ISM's prices paid index for the sector came in at 69.8, roughly flat compared to the prior month. Meanwhile, new orders increased to a reading of 47.2, above the 45.2 seen in March. "In April, U.S. manufacturing activity slipped marginally further into contraction after expanding only marginally in February," Institute for Supply Management chair Timothy Fiore said in a press release. "Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, conditions that are not considered positive for economic growth." Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs The ISM release includes comments from survey respondents across various industries. Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients on Thursday that nearly all of the comments "described a state of near paralysis" as businesses struggle to account for the changing tariff policies. "The tone of these comments suggests that business planning is impossible for the majority of manufacturers, irrespective of their industry specialty," Simons wrote. "Frankly, it is a surprise that the index levels are as high as they are. These comments are consistent with a PMI reading in the 20s or 30s." In a separate release on Thursday, S&P Global's manufacturing data showed activity held flat at a reading of 50.2 in April. Meanwhile, S&P Global noted that tariff impacts boosted both input and selling costs. "It tells me that this process that started with the policy uncertainty and then moved to the markets is now starting to show up in the real data," S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald told Yahoo Finance. "That's kind of the last leg of this transmission." Gruenwald added that the "key variable" for the economy moving forward will be whether or not the labor market deteriorates further. "If you want to differentiate between the slowdown scenario and the recession scenario, it's going to center on the labor market," Gruenwald said. "So if we start to see cracks in the labor market, that's going to take us into the recession scenario. Not there yet, but we're starting to see a little bit of weakness." Read more: What is a recession, and how does it impact you? New data out this week has shown further signs of cooling in the labor market. ADP reported that private payrolls grew by just 62,000 in April, the smallest increase since July 2024. Meanwhile, a separate release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings hit a four-month low at the end of March and are hovering near their lowest level since December 2020. On Friday, the April jobs report is expected to show 135,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Manufacturing activity hits five-month low as Trump tariffs leave businesses in 'state of near paralysis'
US manufacturing activity slid to a five-month low in April as President Trump's tariffs continued to create uncertainty for businesses. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April, below the 49 seen the month prior. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the sector. The ISM's prices paid index for the sector came in at 69.8, roughly flat compared to the prior month. Meanwhile, new orders increased to a reading of 47.2, above the 45.2 seen in March. "In April, U.S. manufacturing activity slipped marginally further into contraction after expanding only marginally in February," Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Timothy Fiore said in a press release release. "Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, conditions that are not considered positive for economic growth." The ISM release includes comments from survey respondents across various industries. Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients on Thursday that nearly all of the comments "described a state of near paralysis" as businesses struggle to account for the changing tariff policies. "The tone of these comments suggests that business planning is impossible for the majority of manufacturers, irrespective of their industry specialty," Simons wrote. "Frankly, it is a surprise that the index levels are as high as they are. These comments are consistent with a PMI reading in the 20s or 30s." In a separate release on Thursday, S&P Global's manufacturing data showed activity held flat at a reading of 50.2 in April. Meanwhile, S&P Global noted that tariff impacts boosted both input and selling costs. "It tells me that this process that started with the policy uncertainty and then moved to the markets is now starting to show up in the real data," S&P Global Ratings global chief economist Paul Gruenwald told Yahoo Finance. "That's kind of the last leg of this transmission." Gruenwald added that the "key variable" for the economy moving forward will be whether or not the labor market deteriorates further. "If you want to differentiate between the slowdown scenario and the recession scenario, it's going to center on the labor market," Gruenwald said. "So if we start to see cracks in the labor market, that's going to take us into the recession scenario. Not there yet, but we're starting to see a little bit of weakness." New data out this week has shown further signs of cooling in the labor market. ADP reported private private payrolls grew by just 62,000 in April, the smallest increase in private payrolls since July 2024. Meanwhile, a separate release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings hit a four-month low at the end of March and are hovering near their lowest level since December 2020. On Friday, the April jobs report is expected to show 135,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In March, the US economy added 228,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
