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Has Iran traded goodwill with Gulf states to avoid war with Trump?
Little over a month ago, Gulf Arab leaders were giving US President Donald Trump the royal treatment.
During his whirlwind tour of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in mid-May, Mr Trump was met with lavish ceremonies and multibillion-dollar investment pledges meant to reset ties with Washington.
Last night, however, the skies over Doha lit up with Iranian missiles, while some Gulf neighbours scrambled to shut down their airspaces in response.
Iran launched a missile attack on the US-run Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, home to the largest American military presence in the Middle East. The attack came in retaliation for US air strikes over the weekend on Iranian nuclear sites, ordered by Mr Trump.
Yet the Iranian salvo appeared to be more message than mayhem. It was calibrated and telegraphed in a way that avoided American casualties. The base had been largely evacuated in anticipation and most of the missiles were intercepted.
Mr Trump said 14 missiles had been fired and that "hardly any damage was done", describing the attack as "weak". He even thanked Iran for warning the US about the missile salvo.
But even a symbolic attack carries consequences. 'The strike increases the regional distrust in Iran's policies,' Ali Bakir, assistant professor at Qatar University and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told The National. 'Everyone knew that Iran needed a face-saving hit and was allowed to strike Al Udeid, which resulted in nothing militarily – Doha intercepted all the missiles except one, which fell in an empty area.'
For Gulf Arab countries, the strike represents a jarring breach. Doha condemned the missile fire as a violation of its sovereignty. The rest of Gulf states quickly followed suit. An extraordinary meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council's Ministerial Council was to be held on Tuesday in Doha to discuss the attack, Secretary General Jasem Al Budaiwi said.
While the skies have since calmed, the diplomatic fallout could unsettle a hard-won balance.
After years marked by proxy wars, sabotage campaigns and deep mistrust, 2023 was a turning point in Gulf-Iran relations. Led by Saudi Arabia, Gulf states chose strategic de-escalation. The shift came after the US failed to prevent a string of Iranian-linked attacks on Saudi and Emirati oil facilities, including the 2019 strike on Aramco's Abqaiq facility. The lesson was clear: Washington's security guarantees were no longer ironclad.
Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Tehran in 2023. The UAE expanded trade talks with Iranian counterparts. Channels of communication with other Gulf countries were restored as well.
The strategy seemed to work. Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has been on edge, but the Gulf region has remained relatively unscathed. Even as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels increased their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, vessels owned or flagged by Gulf states were largely spared. Now, that progress faces its most serious test.
'Iran still has to work hard to repair ties with its neighbours, but its priority right now is regime survival and securing a negotiated outcome,' Mr Bakir said.
'Self-defence not aggression'
Iranian officials have framed the attack on Al Udeid as self-defence, rather than aggression towards its Gulf neighbours.
The Iranian attack "should in no way be interpreted as an action against the friendly and brotherly government of Qatar", Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a phone call with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. The comments came after Doha summoned the Iranian ambassador in protest against the attack.
Some observers say the strike was meant to demonstrate strength while undermining US influence in the region by reminding Gulf states that hosting American troops makes them potential targets.
'Gulf states do not want to escalate with Iran after this attack,' said Anna Jacobs, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. 'They condemn the missile strike, of course, and there will be a cooling-off period, but both sides remain committed to dialogue.
Despite the assault, Qatar revealed it helped broker the ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran, announced by Mr Trump.
Publicly and privately, Gulf countries have been working to prevent this conflict from erupting, and then spiralling further. In April, Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman travelled to Tehran, where he delivered a message, according to reports, that Israel was looking for an excuse to attack and that Iran should negotiate with the US over its nuclear programme.
At around the same time, Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed, delivered a letter from Mr Trump to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that outlined terms for a possible deal. Qatar and Oman have also played instrumental roles in backchannel diplomacy, trying to keep lines between Washington and Tehran open.
'The Gulf states want to see regional de-escalation and a ceasefire. What this Israel-Iran war has shown is how these conflicts destabilise the entire region and easily spiral out of control,' said Ms Jacob.
In launching measured strikes on the US base in Qatar, Iran may have avoided further escalation with the US. But it now risks squandering a rapprochement with its Gulf neighbours, countries that, while eager to avoid conflict, are unlikely to forget the sight of missiles streaking across their skies.
"The Gulf has gone through many crises and, with every test, one truth becomes clear: unity is indispensable. Our solidarity, under wise leadership, is the source of our strength and the safeguard of our stability and prosperity," Dr Gargash wrote on X on Tuesday. "Through this solidarity, we confront challenges."
