2 days ago
The Irish Times view on the US/Iran talks: difficult compromises lie ahead
Many actors are in play and a great deal is at stake in the latest round of talks between the United States and Iran on that country's nuclear enrichment programme. Israel is threatening to attack Iranian nuclear plants if the US fails to act, European powers accuse Iran of breaching agreed inspections, while Gulf powers exert a powerful influence on President Donald Trump to avoid a dangerous war by compromises that would open up large economic opportunities for the US.
These bilateral talks, and the parallel nuclear negotiations in Vienna, which could open up a new round of United Nations sanctions, hinge largely on whether
Iran can continue its nuclear enrichment programme
or must close it down. Iran flatly refuses to stop enrichment, a demand spearheaded by Israel and supported by a strong lobby within Trump's entourage. He has recently shifted his position towards no enrichment, but if that remains unacceptable to the Iranians he faces a fateful choice between finding a compromise and opening a path towards possible war.
Trump's first overseas state visit to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar last month exposed him to their immense wealth and newfound regional power, both of which he values. Their desire for more stable relations with Iran cuts right across Israeli leader Binyamin Netanyahu's push for military action against Iran's enrichment. That feeds into the intense debates around Trump's administration on whether such a war would derail his presidency.
There is scope for diplomatic progress if the political will is there. One suggestion from the US negotiator Steve Witkoff is that Iran's enrichment for energy and other peaceful uses be tied into a wider regional programme that would create security and economic incentives all round.
Iran's refusal
of that option could shift if it sees UN sanctions as a real possibility and chooses to avoid that. France, Germany and the UK should channel such pressure towards finding such a path to regional security as part of their wider critique of Netanyahu's war in Gaza.
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