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EU remains ‘highly vulnerable' and dependent on US defence production
Despite recent efforts to boost European defence production, the bloc remains 'highly vulnerable' and heavily reliant on the United States—particularly for major, high-end defence equipment—according to a new analysis by the Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel.
Trade statistics show that the value of weapons imported to Europe increased from approximately $3.4 billion for the period 2019–2021 to $8.5 billion for 2022–2024 across the 27 member states, with the US leading this increase despite concerns over its capabilities.
'Europe has the industrial production capacities to increase production of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles,' said Guntramm Wolff, Bruegel's senior fellow, during the launch of the report Fit for war by 2030? on Friday morning.* 'What is more concerning is the more modern weapons systems, where we have limited capabilities,' he added.
Bruegel and Kiel Institute for the World Economy researchers have detected that the reliance on the US for certain defence and security domains is very high, including hypersonic missiles, next generation jets, AI integrated systems and intelligence services.
'There has been some increase in various systems—artillery in particular has grown substantially—but these increases are still relatively small compared to the overall demand,' Wolff said.
For example, the report notes that Europe held 1,627 main battle tanks in 2023, while projections suggest 2,359 to 2,920 will be needed in the coming years, depending on the scenario. As for air defence systems such as the Patriot and SAMP/T, stock levels in 2024 stood at 35 units—far below the 89 required.
'Major investments in research and development will be essential,' the authors advise EU policymakers and national governments, especially given Europe's lagging defence R&D compared to global competitors.
In 2023, Europe invested €13 billion in military R&D. By contrast, China invested €21 billion, while the US allocated a staggering $145 billion.
In March, the European Commission unveiled its rearmament initiative—now called Defence Readiness 2030—with a target of mobilising up to €800 billion to address the bloc's most critical defence shortfalls.
Meanwhile, NATO is expected to call on its 32 members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2032—or potentially by 2035—a target Spain has already criticised as 'unreasonable'.
But simply increasing budgets won't solve the problem, the report warns.
'More military spending will not automatically and immediately translate into military capabilities, especially if the defence industrial base is already under strain,' the researchers argue. The real challenge, they stress, lies in converting funding into tangible capabilities through a coherent, forward-looking strategic and operational plan.
With the European defence market still highly fragmented, greater integration would improve cost-effectiveness. But alongside procurement reform, military planning must also be strengthened.
'This is really about rebuilding the ability to understand war through the lens of peer conflict—and that is just as much of a challenge as disbursing the money,' said Dr. Alexandr Burilkov, assistant director for research at the GLOBSEC GeoTech Center.
According to the researchers' estimates, even the proposed €800 billion may fall short—insufficient to cover the development of missile capabilities, procurement of tanks, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles, modernisation of forces, and investment in air defence systems.
Russian drones struck the Black Sea port city of Odesa and the northeastern city of Kharkiv overnight, killing at least one person, Ukrainian officials have said.
The attacks against Odesa sparked fires in several apartment blocks, Ukraine's Emergency Service said.
Flames engulfed a four-storey residential building in the city, which partly collapsed and injured three emergency workers.
A separate blaze spread across the upper section of a 23-storey high-rise, leading to the evacuation of 600 residents.
In total, one person was killed and 14 others were wounded in the overnight strikes against the port city, according to Odesa's regional prosecutor's office.
At least eight drones hit civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, injuring two children and two others, Ukraine's Emergency Service said. A further four people were wounded in a second Russian strike on Friday.
Ukraine's Air Force said Russia launched 80 Shahed and decoy drones overnight, with Ukrainian air defences intercepting or jamming 70 of them.
A Russian missile strike on a nine-storey Kyiv apartment building earlier this week was a sign that more pressure must be applied on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday.
The drone and missile attack on Kyiv early Tuesday, the deadliest assault on the capital this year, killed 28 people across the city and wounded 142 others, Kyiv Military Administration head Tymur Tkachenko said.
'This attack is a reminder to the world that Russia rejects a ceasefire and chooses killing,' Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram, and thanked Ukraine's partners who he said are ready to pressure Russia to 'feel the real cost of the war".
As Russia proceeds with a summer offensive across the roughly 1,000-kilometre front line, US-led peace efforts have failed to gain traction.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected an offer from US President Donald Trump for an immediate 30-day ceasefire, making it conditional on a halt to Ukraine's mobilisation effort and a freeze on Western arms supplies.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday that the date for the next round of peace talks is expected to be set next week.
Ukrainian officials have not recently spoken about resuming talks with Russia, last held when delegations met in Istanbul on 2 June, though Ukraine continues to offer a ceasefire and support US-led diplomatic efforts to stop the fighting.
The two rounds of brief talks yielded only agreements on the exchange of prisoners and wounded soldiers.
