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New York Times
10-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
The Hall of Fame's rule changes did not fix the problem. Here's how to do so
(Editor's note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando's Pick Six of Feb. 10, 2025.) The Hall adopted new rules this year to 'help ensure that membership in the Hall of Fame remains elite' after some felt too many borderline candidates were earning gold jackets. The changes reduced the class size to four in 2025 after the Hall averaged 7.8 inductees per year from 2015-2024, not counting a 20-member Centennial class. GO DEEPER Hall of Fame voting rules: Why the highest NFL honor is now more exclusive Antonio Gates, Eric Allen and Jared Allen earned enshrinement as modern-era players. Sterling Sharpe earned enshrinement as a senior player (retired at least 25 years). The four-member class was the Hall's smallest since 2005. The changes failed in another sense because, in my view as one of the 49 selectors, the committee did not sufficiently prioritize voting for the most elite candidates regardless of how long other candidates had been waiting. Advertisement Gates and linebacker Luke Kuechly met the super-elite standard better than the other modern-era finalists, but Kuechly, in his first year of eligibility, was forced to wait. Opinions on players vary. Not everyone will agree with my take on Kuechly relative to the other finalists. But I'm very confident the public outcry would be much louder if, say, Kuechly were excluded over a 10-year period than if Eric Allen, Jared Allen or both were excluded for that long (Eric Allen had been excluded much longer than that, gaining enshrinement in his 19th year of eligibility). Some voters advocate hurrying to enshrine long-eligible candidates before they fall into an abyss with other senior candidates, perhaps never to surface again. Some of these voters also complain about too many first-ballot selections, contending these players push others into the seniors category. This thinking was more defensible when enough slots were effectively available for nearly all finalists to earn enshrinement eventually. Following this line of thinking under the new, more restrictive rules creates a disconnect with the Hall's mission to improve class quality. That disconnect was on display Thursday night when the Hall introduced a class lacking in both size and star power. The table above stacks the 15 modern-era finalists for 2025 by how likely each was to earn enshrinement based on Pro Football Reference's Hall of Fame Monitor score, which takes into account career production and honors. This is not, by any means, how Hall classes should be elected. But it's a thoughtful, independent point of reference. It's telling when almost none of the highest-rated players earn enshrinement. Voters must recalibrate. The chart below arranges modern-era Hall of Fame player classes by weighted career AV (Y axis) and Hall of Fame Monitor score (X axis). The problem should resolve itself temporarily in 2026 when Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald become eligible. A three-man class with Brees, Fitzgerald and Kuechly would rank sixth among 46 modern-era player classes since 1980 in average Hall of Fame Monitor score (the 2025 class ranks 40th). Bill Belichick could be the choice in the senior/coach/contributor category, further elevating the 2026 class prestige. Advertisement There are other concerns. In addition to the 15 modern-era finalists listed above, the committee also considered three seniors, one coach and one contributor separately. Sharpe was the only one to earn enshrinement under rules that assure between one and three are enshrined. The Hall would be wise to reconsider slot allocation. Three slots for seniors is too many after 18 were enshrined in the past six years, including 10 in 2020. I see no obvious contributor candidates beyond Robert Kraft. Should that category be in the mix every year? Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin are the strongest coach candidates, pending Belichick's eligibility. Their candidacies are stronger than those for contributors. The way things are set up now, voters pick three of the five finalists in this combined category, with 80 percent of votes (40 of 49 this year) required for enshrinement. Seven of the broader selection committee members serve on the subcommittee for senior candidates. They could, in theory, vote only for seniors, while the other subcommittee members (nine on the coach committee and seven on the contributor committee) must also choose players. I do not think subcommittee voters are this rigid, but with every vote being so precious, and with players naturally having the edge over coaches and contributors anyway, the 3-1-1 distribution exaggerates the imbalance. We saw the results of that imbalance when only Sharpe qualified, when many voters thought both Sharpe and Holmgren would make it. (Photo of Luke Kuechly: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)
New York Times
06-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Pro Football Hall of Fame voting rules: Why the highest NFL honor is now more exclusive
NEW ORLEANS — Three years have passed since Deion Sanders, arguably the greatest cornerback in NFL history, complained loudly about the Pro Football Hall of Fame lowering the bar for enshrinement. Were too many borderline candidates making it through the process, watering down what it meant to earn the coveted gold jacket and bronze bust in Canton? Sanders clearly thought so. The Hall agreed, implementing stricter rules in August 2024 to, in its words, 'help ensure that membership in the Hall of Fame remains elite.' Advertisement Fans will see the results of the new rules for the first time when the Hall reveals its 2025 class Thursday night at the NFL Honors show in New Orleans, site of Super Bowl LIX. As one of the 49 selectors, I participated in the voting but do not know the results. Here's a primer on what to know and expect heading into the announcement: The Hall welcomed 179 new members from 2000 to '24, up from 118 over the previous 25-year period (1975-99). That included a special 20-member NFL Centennial class in 2020. The selection committee has enshrined the maximum five modern-era candidates per year for 17 consecutive years. The average was 4.1 per year over the preceding 40-year period. The swell in numbers also reflects the Hall's decision to separate coaches and contributors from modern-era candidates beginning in 2015. The committee has enshrined 17 coaches and contributors in the nine years since, in addition to the five-person modern-era classes. As a result, the Hall has enshrined 7.8 total candidates per year on average since 2015, not counting the 20-member Centennial class. 'With the revisions, classes are more likely, statistically, to include five or six members,' the Hall said in a news release announcing changes to the process. Bruce Smith, Rod Woodson, Randall McDaniel and Derrick Thomas were the modern-era players enshrined in 2009. Jerry Rice, Emmitt, Smith, John Randle, Russ Grimm and Rickey Jackson followed in 2010. These super-elite classes rank 1-2 since 1980 on average using Pro Football Reference's Hall of Fame Monitor, which adjusts for era and position when taking into account career production and honors to predict the likelihood of being enshrined (the data is available for players who debuted since 1955). Advertisement The third-ranked class since 1980 featured Walter Payton, Larry Little and Dan Fouts in 1993. Barry Sanders and John Elway headlined the fourth-ranked class in 2004 (Carl Eller also was part of it). The fifth-ranked class by this measure featured Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Brian Urlacher and Brian Dawkins (2018). The 2000 class was next with Ronnie Lott, Joe Montana and Howie Long. At the other extreme, the 2022 modern-era class of Sam Mills, Richard Seymour, Bryant Young, LeRoy Butler and Tony Boselli ranked 44th out of 45 classes since 1980. Only the 1996 class (Charlie Joiner, Mel Renfro, Dan Dierdorf) ranked lower. The average class quality (using a five-year rolling average of the Hall of Fame Monitor metric) peaked in 2011 and remained relatively steady until the past three years. In 2024, it dropped to its lowest level since 2003. While there is no comprehensive metric for determining Hall worthiness, when every member of a class might have missed the cut in a strong year, alarms sound. Sanders did not need help from Pro Football Reference to feel what those numbers suggest was happening. Did Sanders and the Hall overreact to a single outlier class? Was it time to reverse the trend toward larger classes? The Hall decided to err on the side of exclusivity while its ranks remain proportionally more exclusive than other halls of fame (there are 378 members of the Hall at present, compared to 351 for the Baseball Hall of Fame and "more than 450" for the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, despite the NFL having employed many more players). The 15 modern-era finalists this year are cornerback Eric Allen, defensive end Jared Allen, tackle Willie Anderson, guard Jahri Evans, tight end Antonio Gates, receiver Torry Holt, linebacker Luke Kuechly, quarterback Eli Manning, receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, running back Fred Taylor, kicker Adam Vinatieri, receiver Reggie Wayne, safety Darren Woodson and guard Marshal Yanda. Advertisement Vinatieri and Manning are two of the more interesting candidates this year. Both delivered in the clutch during Super Bowls. Both also enjoyed long careers. But Vinatieri is a kicker competing against every-down players, while Manning arguably was never a top-five player at his position. Both rank higher on the Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor than some others at their positions who are already enshrined. The table below ranks these finalists by their Hall of Fame Monitor scores (logos reflect the teams with which each played the most games). In general, a score around 100 suggests likely enshrinement. But dozens of Hall of Famers have scores in the 40-80 range, including decorated quarterbacks such as Joe Namath (70.0), Troy Aikman (64.3) and Jim Kelly (59.1). If the five finalists with the highest Hall of Fame Monitor scores were enshrined this year, the 2025 class would average 111.2, which would rank 18th among the 45 classes since 1980. But for the first time in nearly two decades, there might not be five modern-era inductees. (John Bradford / The Athletic) In past years, the selection committee — which typically comprises 50 voters but currently has one open spot — chose five finalists from the 15. Once this reduction was made, each of the remaining five needed 80 percent "yes" votes from the committee to gain enshrinement. Under this setup, the final five gained enshrinement every time for the past 17 years. Under new rules, the final 15 are reduced to seven. At that point, each voter picks five of the seven. Candidates receiving 80 percent of the votes gain enshrinement. The new math makes it possible for none of the final seven to meet the 80 percent cutoff (40 of 49 votes). If fewer than three meet that percentage, as in the first hypothetical scenario shown below, the three with the most votes will gain enshrinement (we'll detail tiebreaking procedures separately). For the maximum five modern-era candidates to be selected, the other two finalists could command no more than 45 combined votes (or 50 in a typical year with 50 voters). Such a scenario might look something like this. Voters are not forced to choose between the modern-era finalists listed above and the following senior/coach/contributor finalists: seniors linebacker Maxie Baughan, receiver Sterling Sharpe and offensive tackle Jim Tyrer, who have all been retired for at least 25 years; former Green Bay and Seattle coach Mike Holmgren; and former NFL co-founder Ralph Hay, the contributor. Advertisement Bill Belichick becomes eligible in the coach category next year if he does not return to the NFL by then. That raises the possibility of Belichick advancing as the coach candidate to compete for votes with Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who could emerge in the contributor category. In past years, finalists from these categories gained enshrinement if each received 80 percent approval from the committee. Their odds for enshrinement were high because voters did not have to choose these candidates at the expense of any others. Voters could simply vote "yes" without consequence, essentially rubber-stamping candidates put forth by the various subcommittees. Under new rules, voters must pick three of five candidates from these categories. Only those receiving 80 percent of the votes gain enshrinement. If no finalist meets that bar, the single finalist with the most votes gains enshrinement. As a hypothetical (see below), if one candidate gets 42 of 49 votes (86 percent) and another gets 37 of 49 votes (76 percent), only the first candidate would gain enshrinement, and only 68 votes would remain for the other three candidates. For the maximum three candidates from this category to be selected, the other two candidates could command no more than 27 combined votes (or 30 in a typical year with 50 voters). What happens if fewer than three modern-era finalists and/or zero senior/coach/contributor finalists receive 80 percent of the votes? The Hall would then determine candidates based on the following eight criteria, in this order: • Most votes for election (final ballot), including the vote for each senior, coach or contributor candidate; • Most votes in the vote to reduce from 10 to seven modern-era player finalists; • Most votes in the vote to reduce from 15 to 10 modern-era player finalists; • Most votes to reduce from 25 to 15 modern-era player semifinalists; • Most votes to reduce from the final preliminary list to 25 modern-era player semifinalists; • Most times as a finalist; • Most times on the preliminary list; • Alphabetical last name (in even years) or reverse-alphabetical (odd years) on an alternating year basis. (Photos of Adam Vinatieri, left, and Eli Manning: Justin Berl, Steven Ryan / Getty Images)
