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Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Failed Soviet spacecraft could crash to Earth this week — here's where it might hit (map)
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. A failed Soviet spacecraft that was mistakenly trapped in Earth orbit more than 50 years ago is expected to finally crash back to our planet this week. Experts predict that the spacecraft, called the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft, will make its final, fiery plunge through the atmosphere sometime between May 8 and May 12, traveling at an estimated speed of 150 mph (242 km/h) as it careens through the sky like a meteor. Built to withstand a trip through the dense atmosphere of Venus, the 3-foot-wide (1 meter), 1,091 pound (495 kilograms) lander is likely to stay in one piece as it falls to Earth like a cosmic cannonball. But where will Kosmos 482 land, and are any major cities in its potential path? Unfortunately, at the moment, nobody knows for sure where Kosmos 482 will hit — and its potential landing area covers most of the planet. Given the satellite's current orbit, it could ultimately land anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude, Marco Langbroek, a lecturer in space situational awareness at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands who discovered the lander's imminent return, wrote in a blog post. Here's what that area looks like, shown in orange on the map below: The projected landing zone encompasses an enormous area on both sides of the equator. This broad swath includes the entire continental United States, all of South America, Africa and Australia, and most of Europe and Asia south of the Arctic Circle. (The Arctic Circle begins just above 66 degrees north latitude). Virtually every major city on Earth, from New York to London to Beijing, falls within this zone. That sounds bad — but you shouldn't worry: The odds of the runaway Kosmos spacecraft hitting any given populated area are exceptionally slim. With roughly 71% of our planet's surface covered in water, it is overwhelmingly likely that Kosmos 482 will land in the ocean, as most pieces of deorbited space debris do. Related: Doomed Soviet spacecraft tumbling toward Earth may already have its parachute out, new images hint The odds of the spacecraft falling directly onto your head are probably "the usual one-in-several-thousand chance" associated with falling space debris, Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, wrote in a blog post. Experts won't be able to narrow down Kosmos 482's potential landing zone until it actually begins its descent through the atmosphere, which is currently predicted to happen on May 10, give or take a couple days. The Kosmos 482 probe was made and launched by the U.S.S.R. in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union's Venera program to explore Venus. The program achieved success with the Venera 7 and 8 probes, which were the first two spacecraft to successfully land on Venus in 1970 and 1972, respectively. Kosmos 482 was built as a sister probe to Venera 8. But due to a malfunction with the Soyuz rocket that lofted Kosmos 482 into space, the probe failed to achieve enough velocity to reach Venus, instead settling into an elliptical orbit around Earth. RELATED STORIES —How do tiny pieces of space junk cause incredible damage? —Space junk: How broken satellites are creating a garbage crisis in the sky —It's time to clean up space junk before orbits become 'unusable,' according to new ESA report Soon after its botched launch, Kosmos 482 broke into several pieces. The probe's main body reentered Earth's atmosphere on May 5, 1981, while the Descent Craft remained in its unintended orbit for almost 53 years — until now. Kosmos 482 is just one of more than 1.2 million pieces of space debris measuring larger than 0.4 inches (1 centimeter) in size, and one of roughly 50,000 pieces of space junk measuring more than 4 inches (10 cm), according to a recent report from the European Space Agency (ESA). Orbital collisions and uncontrolled reentries are becoming increasingly common, with "intact satellites or rocket bodies … now re-entering the Earth atmosphere on average more than three times a day," according to the ESA report.
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Failed Soviet-era spacecraft expected to crash back to Earth within days
A failed Soviet-era spacecraft that became trapped in Earth's orbit by mistake more than 50 years ago is expected to crash back down onto the planet in a matter of days, according to space experts. Cosmos 482 was launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union's Venera program, which intended to explore Venus, according to NASA. The unmanned spacecraft experienced a successful initial launch on March 31, 1972, and temporarily orbited Earth. However, it did not achieve sufficient velocity to launch into a Venus transfer trajectory, NASA said, and the payload -- or the portion of the craft significantly related to the craft's primary mission -- was unable to exit Earth's orbit. MORE: SpaceX loses another Starship in latest launch, with debris seen streaking across the sky Astronomers hypothesize that a malfunction on a timer caused the engine to burn prematurely, NASA said. The spacecraft then broke into four pieces. Two of the pieces, which remained in low orbit, decayed within 48 hours. Orbital decay refers to an incremental decrease in altitude, gradually closing a craft's distance to Earth, according to NASA. The other two pieces -- including the large lander probe -- became stuck in Earth's higher orbit. It has experienced orbital decay for decades, NASA said, and that decay has brought it close enough to reenter the planet's atmosphere around May 10. Because the probe was designed to withstand entry into Venus' atmosphere -- which is 90 times denser than Earth's -- it is possible that parts of it could survive reentry and continue onward to the planet's surface, according to NASA. The risk of Cosmos 482 striking people on the ground is low -- but not impossible, Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, wrote on his website last month. "No need for major concern, but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head," McDowell wrote. PHOTO: Venus is shown in this undated NASA image. (NASA) MORE: Falling space debris is increasingly threatening airplanes, researchers say The lander probe is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere between Friday and Sunday, NASA said. The craft is about 3.2 feet across and weighs about 1,100 pounds. As of Tuesday, the landing location was estimated to be anywhere between 52 N and 52 S latitude. This large swath contains the United States, as well as most of the continents on Earth. The time and location of a return to Earth will likely be predicted more accurately as reentry nears, according to NASA. PHOTO: A world map shows the possible crash zone of Kosmos 482. (ABC News Photo Illustration) MORE: NASA confirms International Space Station object crashed through home in Naples, Florida Astronomers are increasingly monitoring space junk left near Earth during launches of satellites and other spacecraft. There are currently more than 1.2 million known pieces of space debris, 50,000 of which measure more than 4 inches across, according to a 2025 report by the European Space Agency. "Even if we created no new space debris, it would not be enough to prevent a runaway series of collisions and fragmentations," the ESA said in a statement. Failed Soviet-era spacecraft expected to crash back to Earth within days originally appeared on
07-05-2025
- Science
Failed Soviet-era spacecraft expected to crash back to Earth within days
A failed Soviet-era spacecraft that became trapped in Earth's orbit by mistake more than 50 years ago is expected to crash back down onto the planet in a matter of days, according to space experts. Cosmos 482 was launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union's Venera program, which intended to explore Venus, according to NASA. The unmanned spacecraft experienced a successful initial launch on March 31, 1972, and temporarily orbited Earth. However, it did not achieve sufficient velocity to launch into a Venus transfer trajectory, NASA said, and the payload -- or the portion of the craft significantly related to the craft's primary mission -- was unable to exit Earth's orbit. Astronomers hypothesize that a malfunction on a timer caused the engine to burn prematurely, NASA said. The spacecraft then broke into four pieces. Two of the pieces, which remained in low orbit, decayed within 48 hours. Orbital decay refers to an incremental decrease in altitude, gradually closing a craft's distance to Earth, according to NASA. The other two pieces -- including the large lander probe -- became stuck in Earth's higher orbit. It has experienced orbital decay for decades, NASA said, and that decay has brought it close enough to reenter the planet's atmosphere around May 10. Because the probe was designed to withstand entry into Venus' atmosphere -- which is 90 times denser than Earth's -- it is possible that parts of it could survive reentry and continue onward to the planet's surface, according to NASA. The risk of Cosmos 482 striking people on the ground is low -- but not impossible, Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, wrote on his website last month. "No need for major concern, but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head," McDowell wrote. The lander probe is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere between Friday and Sunday, NASA said. The craft is about 3.2 feet across and weighs about 1,100 pounds. As of Tuesday, the landing location was estimated to be anywhere between 52 N and 52 S latitude. This large swath contains the United States, as well as most of the continents on Earth. The time and location of a return to Earth will likely be predicted more accurately as reentry nears, according to NASA. Astronomers are increasingly monitoring space junk left near Earth during launches of satellites and other spacecraft. There are currently more than 1.2 million known pieces of space debris, 50,000 of which measure more than 4 inches across, according to a 2025 report by the European Space Agency. statement.
NDTV
06-05-2025
- Science
- NDTV
Soviet-Era Spacecraft To Reenter Earth After 53 Years In Orbit: Report
A former Soviet spacecraft is predicted to crash back to Earth this week. Weighing approximately 453 kg, Kosmos 482 will reenter the planet's atmosphere around May 10, CNN reported. Launched in 1972, Kosmos 482 malfunctioned on its way to Venus. An issue with a timer resulted in an early engine shutdown, trapping the Soviet spacecraft in Earth's orbit for over half a century. With the aircraft now set to crash down, scientists are unsure which part of it will reenter the Earth. Some think it will be the probe, also known as the "entry capsule." The majority of space debris and meteors, which frequently veer toward a crash-landing on Earth, break apart due to friction and pressure as they strike the planet's dense atmosphere while travelling thousands of miles per hour. Cosmos 482, being a Soviet reentry capsule, is expected to be equipped with a substantial heat shield. It was designed to survive the extreme temperature and pressure of landing on Venus. The spacecraft "might well survive Earth atmosphere entry and hit the ground," wrote Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, on his website. He added, "The risk of the object hitting people on the ground is likely minimal, and there's no need for major concern, but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head." According to scientists, Cosmos 482 may land within 52 degrees north or south of the equator. Even if the area contains a large portion of the ocean, entire countries are still vulnerable to an uncontrolled spacecraft crashing down on their territory. Since a lot of the Earth is covered by oceans, scientists are optimistic that it will land in water. However, no one is certain about it. If Cosmos 482 hits dry land, it's important that onlookers avoid touching the debris. Dangerous fuel leaks or other damage to humans and property might occur from the outdated spaceship.
Yahoo
05-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
A Soviet-era spacecraft that failed to reach Venus is due to crash back to Earth this week
Sign up for CNN's Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more. A piece of a Soviet vehicle that malfunctioned en route to Venus more than 50 years ago is due to crash back to Earth as soon as this week. Much about the piece of space debris, called Cosmos 482 (also spelled Kosmos 482), is unknown. Though most projections estimate that the object will reenter the atmosphere around May 10, unknowns about its exact shape and size — as well as the unpredictability of space weather — make some degree of uncertainty inevitable. It's also unclear which portion of the vehicle is set to reenter, though researchers believe it to be the probe, or 'entry capsule,' which was designed to survive the extreme temperature and pressure of landing on Venus — which has an atmosphere 90 times more dense than Earth's. That means it could survive its unexpected trip back home, posing a small but non-zero risk to people on the ground. While space junk and meteors routinely veer toward a crash-landing on Earth, most of the objects disintegrate as they're torn apart due to friction and pressure as they hit Earth's thick atmosphere while traveling thousands of miles per hour. But if the Cosmos 482 object is indeed a Soviet reentry capsule, it would be equipped with a substantial heat shield, meaning it 'might well survive Earth atmosphere entry and hit the ground,' according to Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who shared his predictions about Cosmos 482 on his website. The risk of the object hitting people on the ground is likely minimal, and there's 'no need for major concern,' McDowell wrote, 'but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head.' The Soviet Space Research Institute, or IKI, was formed in the mid-1960s amid the 20th-century space race, which pitted the Soviet Union against its chief space-exploring competitor, the United States. The IKI's Venera program sent a series of probes toward Venus in the 1970s and '80s, with several surviving the trip and beaming data and images back to Earth before ceasing operations. Two spacecraft under that program, V-71 No. 670 and V-71 No. 671, launched in 1972, according to McDowell. But only one made a successful voyage to Venus: V-71 No. 670 operated for about 50 minutes on the planet's surface. V-71 No. 671 did not. A rocket carried the Venera spacecraft into a 'parking orbit' around Earth. However, the vehicle then failed to put itself on a Venus transfer trajectory, leaving it stranded closer to home, according to NASA. Beginning in the 1960s, Soviet vehicles left in Earth's orbit were each given the Cosmos name and a numerical designation for tracking purposes, according to NASA. Several pieces of debris were created from V-71 No. 671's failure. At least two have already fallen out of orbit. But researchers believe the one set to plummet back to our planet this week is the cylindrical entry capsule — or Cosmos 482 — because of the way the vehicle has behaved in orbit. 'It is quite dense, whatever it is, because it had a very low point in its orbit, yet it didn't decay for decades,' said Marlon Sorge, a space debris expert with the federally funded research group, The Aerospace Corporation. 'So it's clearly bowling ball-ish.' And though the Venus probe was equipped with a parachute, the vehicle has been out of service in the harsh environment of space for the past few decades. That means it's highly unlikely that a parachute could deploy at the right time or serve to slow down the vehicle's descent, Sorge and Langbroek told CNN. The chances of Cosmos 482 causing deadly damage is are roughly 1 in 25,000, according to The Aerospace Corporation's calculations, Sorge said. That's a much lower risk than some other pieces of space debris. At least a few defunct rocket parts reenter Earth's atmosphere each year, Sorge noted, and many have carried higher odds of catastrophe. But if the Cosmos 482 object does hit the ground, it is likely to land between 52 degrees North and 52 South latitudes, Langbroek said via email. 'That area encompasses several prominent landmasses and countries: the whole of Africa, South America, Australia, the USA, parts of Canada, parts of Europe, and parts of Asia,' Langbroek said. 'But as 70% of our planet is water, chances are good that it will end up in an Ocean somewhere,' Langbroek said via email. 'Yes, there is a risk, but it is small. You have a larger risk of being hit by lightning once in your lifetime.' Sorge emphasized that if Cosmos 482 hits dry land, it's crucial that bystanders do not attempt to touch the debris. The old spacecraft could leak dangerous fuels or pose other risks to people and property. 'Contact the authorities,' Sorge urged. 'Please don't mess with it.' Parker Wishik, a spokesperson for the Aerospace Corporation, added that under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty — which remains the primary document outlining international space law — Russia would maintain ownership of any surviving debris and may seek to recover it after landing. And while the global space community has taken steps in recent years to ensure that fewer spacecraft make uncontrolled crash-landings back on Earth, the Cosmos 482 vehicle highlights the importance of continuing those efforts, Wishik added. 'What goes up must come down,' he said. 'We're here talking about it more than 50 years later, which is another proof point for the importance of debris mitigation and making sure we're having that that dialogue (as a space community) because what you put up in space today might affect us for decades to come.'
