Latest news with #Harvard-SmithsonianCentreforAstrophysics
7NEWS
07-05-2025
- Science
- 7NEWS
Soviet-era spacecraft that failed to reach Venus is due to crash back to Earth this week
A piece of a Soviet vehicle that malfunctioned en route to Venus more than 50 years ago is due to crash back to Earth as soon as this week. Much about the piece of space debris, called Cosmos 482 (also spelled Kosmos 482), is unknown. Though most projections estimate the object will re-enter the atmosphere about May 10, unknowns about its exact shape and size, as well as the unpredictability of space weather, make some degree of uncertainty inevitable. It's also unclear which portion of the vehicle is set to re-enter, though researchers believe it to be the probe, or 'entry capsule,' which was designed to survive the extreme temperature and pressure of landing on Venus — which has an atmosphere 90 times more dense than Earth's. That means it could survive its unexpected trip back home, posing a small but non-zero risk to people on the ground. While space junk and meteors routinely veer toward a crash-landing on Earth, most of the objects disintegrate as they're torn apart due to friction and pressure as they hit Earth's thick atmosphere while travelling thousands of kilometres per hour. But if the Cosmos 482 object is indeed a Soviet re-entry capsule, it would be equipped with a substantial heat shield, meaning it 'might well survive Earth atmosphere entry and hit the ground,' according to Dr Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics who shared his predictions about Cosmos 482 on his website. The risk of the object hitting people on the ground is likely minimal, and there's 'no need for major concern,' McDowell wrote, 'but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head'. Vying for Venus The Soviet Space Research Institute, or IKI, was formed in the mid-1960s amid the 20th-century space race, which pitted the Soviet Union against its chief space-exploring competitor, the United States. The IKI's Venera program sent a series of probes toward Venus in the 1970s and '80s, with several surviving the trip and beaming data and images back to Earth before ceasing operations. Two spacecraft under that program, V-71 No. 670 and V-71 No. 671, launched in 1972, according to McDowell. But only one made a successful voyage to Venus: V-71 No. 670 operated for about 50 minutes on the planet's surface. V-71 No. 671 did not. A rocket carried the Venera spacecraft into a 'parking orbit' around Earth. However, the vehicle then failed to put itself on a Venus transfer trajectory, leaving it stranded closer to home, according to NASA. Beginning in the 1960s, Soviet vehicles left in Earth's orbit were each given the Cosmos name and a numerical designation for tracking purposes, according to NASA. Several pieces of debris were created from V-71 No. 671's failure. At least two have already fallen out of orbit. But researchers believe the one set to plummet back to our planet this week is the cylindrical entry capsule — or Cosmos 482 — because of the way the vehicle has behaved in orbit. 'It is quite dense, whatever it is, because it had a very low point in its orbit, yet it didn't decay for decades,' said Marlon Sorge, a space debris expert with the federally funded research group, The Aerospace Corporation. 'So, it's clearly bowling ball-ish.' And though the Venus probe was equipped with a parachute, the vehicle has been out of service in the harsh environment of space for the past few decades. That means it's highly unlikely that a parachute could deploy at the right time or serve to slow down the vehicle's descent, Sorge told CNN. The risks of re-entry The chances of Cosmos 482 causing deadly damage are roughly 1 in 25,000, according to The Aerospace Corporation's calculations, Sorge said. That's a much lower risk than some other pieces of space debris. At least a few defunct rocket parts re-enter Earth's atmosphere each year, Sorge noted, and many have carried higher odds of catastrophe. But if the Cosmos 482 object does hit the ground, it is likely to land between 52 degrees North and 52 South latitudes, said Marco Langbroek, a lecturer and space traffic expert at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands. 'That area encompasses several prominent landmasses and countries: the whole of Africa, South America, Australia, the USA, parts of Canada, parts of Europe, and parts of Asia,' Langbroek said. 'But as 70 per cent of our planet is water, chances are good that it will end up in an Ocean somewhere. 'Yes, there is a risk, but it is small. You have a larger risk of being hit by lightning once in your lifetime.' Safety first Sorge emphasised that if Cosmos 482 hits dry land, it's crucial that bystanders do not attempt to touch the debris. The old spacecraft could leak dangerous fuels or pose other risks to people and property. 'Contact the authorities,' Sorge urged. 'Please don't mess with it.' Aerospace Corporation spokesperson Parker Wishik added that, under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty — which remains the primary document outlining international space law — Russia would maintain ownership of any surviving debris and may seek to recover it after landing. And while the global space community has taken steps in recent years to ensure that fewer spacecraft make uncontrolled crash-landings back on Earth, the Cosmos 482 vehicle highlights the importance of continuing those efforts, Wishik added. 'What goes up must come down,' he said. 'We're here talking about it more than 50 years later, which is another proof point for the importance of debris mitigation and making sure we're having that that dialogue (as a space community) because what you put up in space today might affect us for decades to come.'
Yahoo
05-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Soviet-era spacecraft from aborted Venus mission set to plummet to Earth
A Soviet-era spacecraft meant to land on Venus in the 1970s is expected to plunge uncontrolled back to Earth, possibly within the first two weeks of May. It's too early to know where the half-tonne mass of metal might come down or how much of it will survive re-entry, according to space debris tracking experts. Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek predicts the failed spacecraft will re-enter around 10 May. He estimates it will come crashing at around 242 kph, assuming it remains intact. "While not without risk, we should not be too worried," Langbroek said. Related 'Venus is a Russian planet': Russian space agency announces national effort to explore Earth's twin The object is relatively small and, even if it doesn't break apart, "the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime," he said. The chance of the spacecraft actually hitting someone or something is small, he added, but "it cannot be completely excluded." The Soviet Union launched the spacecraft known as Kosmos 482 in 1972, one of a series of Venus missions. But it never made it out of Earth orbit because of a rocket malfunction. Most of it came tumbling back to Earth within a decade. But Langbroek and others believe the landing capsule itself — a spherical object about one metre in diameter — has been circling the world in a highly elliptical orbit for the past 53 years, gradually dropping in altitude. Related NASA plans two visits to Earth's nearest neighbour Venus It's possible that the nearly 500-kilogram spacecraft will survive re-entry. It was built to withstand a descent through the carbon dioxide-thick atmosphere of Venus, said Langbroek of Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. Experts doubt the parachute system would work after so many years. The heat shield may also be compromised after so long in orbit. Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics said it would be better if the heat shield failed, which would cause the spacecraft to burn up during its dive through the atmosphere. But if the shield holds, "it'll re-enter intact and you have a half-tonne metal object falling from the sky". The spacecraft could re-enter anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, or as far north as London and Edmonton in Canada's Alberta, almost all the way down to South America's Cape Horn. But since most of the planet is water, "chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean," Langbroek said.
Time of India
02-05-2025
- Science
- Time of India
Decades-old Soviet spacecraft still orbiting Earth may crash back around May 10
This is an AI-generate image, used for representational purposes only. A half-ton Soviet-era spacecraft originally meant to land on Venus is expected to make an uncontrolled return to Earth around May 10 , according to space debris experts monitoring its orbit. While the exact reentry location remains unknown, predictions suggest it could impact anywhere between 52 degrees north and south latitude, spanning regions from Canada to Cape Horn in South America. The object, known as Kosmos 482 , was launched in 1972 as part of the USSR's ambitious Venera programme, but a rocket malfunction left it stranded in Earth orbit . According to Nasa , the spacecraft split into four parts after a failed attempt to reach a Venus transfer trajectory. Two pieces decayed within days, while the lander module, built to survive Venus' hostile atmosphere, remained in orbit for over 50 years. Dutch space tracker Marco Langbroek, who has closely followed the probe's orbit, was quoted by news agency AP as saying that the spacecraft could reenter Earth's atmosphere at around 150 mph (242 km/h). 'While not without risk, we should not be too worried,' he said, adding that the likelihood of impact injury is comparable to that of being hit by a meteorite. 'You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime.' Langbroek said that the probe's design increases the chance it might survive the fiery reentry. The lander, measuring about 1 metre in diameter and weighing nearly 500 kg, was engineered to withstand the thick carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere of Venus. 'It is possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth's atmosphere intact,' he wrote in a blog post. The lander's parachute system is unlikely to function after decades in space, and experts like Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics say the best outcome would be for the heat shield to fail, causing the object to disintegrate. 'If the heat shield holds, it'll reenter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky,' McDowell said in an email cited by AP. Langbroek added that while the object could fall on populated areas, 'chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean,' given the vast water coverage on Earth. This is similar to what happened with Russia's Phobos-Grunt probe in 2011, which fell into the Pacific Ocean. Originally, Kosmos 482 was launched just four days after its twin probe, Venera 8, which successfully landed on Venus and transmitted data for 50 minutes before succumbing to extreme heat. Kosmos 482 was intended to perform a similar mission, but its failure meant it never left Earth orbit. Space agencies and satellite trackers are now monitoring the descent closely, with more precise predictions expected in the days leading up to May 10.
