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There is no better time to disarm Hezbollah
There is no better time to disarm Hezbollah

Ya Libnan

time29-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Ya Libnan

There is no better time to disarm Hezbollah

File : Hezbollah top commanders that were killed in its last war with Israel by David Schenker With the group and its Iranian patrons at their weakest point in decades, Beirut has a real opportunity to restore its sovereignty, but waiting for another futile 'national dialogue' may close that window Last week, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that Beirut would not forcibly disarm the Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah as part of its effort to gain a state monopoly on weapons. Instead, Aoun said Hezbollah would be convinced to give up its arms on its own, through dialogue and negotiations. Moreover, the president suggested the militia's troops could then be integrated into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). This approach, which avoids a potentially bloody face-off, will be unacceptable to both the US and Israel, and will ultimately undermine the hopeful progress Lebanon has made toward reasserting its sovereignty. Undoubtedly, President Aoun is in a difficult position. In the November 2024 ceasefire that ended the Hezbollah-Israel war, the Lebanese government agreed to implement United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1701 and 1559, which require the disarmament of all militias in the country. For its part, Hezbollah agreed to move its military hardware and personnel to the area above the Litani River, but it has rejected demilitarization elsewhere. Since the ceasefire was signed in December, the LAF has largely fulfilled its obligations to seize the militia's weapons and dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure along the frontier with Israel. Lacking sufficient numbers of troops and concerned about sparking a resumption of its sectarian civil war, however, Beirut has baulked at going after Hezbollah's arsenal north of the Litani. Meanwhile, consistent with the terms of the ceasefire, Israel continues to target Hezbollah assets and personnel throughout the state. Default Approach To square the circle while avoiding a seemingly inevitable confrontation with Hezbollah, Aoun has defaulted to Lebanon's perennial preferred method of dealing with uncomfortable and insoluble problems: national dialogue. Aoun is calling for a 'bilateral dialogue' with Hezbollah to reach an agreement on the organization's disarmament. Since 2005, Hezbollah has periodically engaged with the Lebanese government and political factions in dialogues focused on designing a 'national defense strategy.' These discussions proved sterile, largely because Hezbollah always refused to discuss ceding its weapons but also because the organization routinely murdered Lebanese critics who had the temerity to suggest that Hezbollah surrender its arms. Accordingly, until 2025, successive Lebanese governments accepted and legitimated, in their ministerial statements, the militia's possession of weapons and 'resistance.' For example, in 2010, Hezbollah participated in several rounds of talks. But Hezbollah maintained its position, and negotiations, unsurprisingly, made no progress. In 2012, then-President Michel Suleiman advocated for placing Hezbollah's arms under the authority of the LAF, but the group swiftly rejected it. In 2016, President Michel Aoun endorsed Hezbollah's arms as 'complementary' to the LAF. After years of futile efforts, in 2018, negotiations finally broke down after the militia deployed to Syria to defend the Assad regime against a popular revolt. Now, Hezbollah says it is again willing to participate in a dialogue. According to Hezbollah MP Ihab Hamadeh, this dialogue would focus on establishing a 'defensive strategy' that would have to 'convince' the Lebanese that the state could defend the country from Israel. Militia officials have said they could agree to disarm if Israel withdraws from Lebanon—a reference to five hilltop locations Israel continues to occupy in Lebanon—and ends its targeting of Hezbollah. But that position has since been contradicted by the organization's current leader, Naim Qassem, who said on 19 April that 'no one will be allowed to remove the weapons of the resistance.' In any event, these officials say the dialogue will not occur until after the parliamentary elections in 2026, currently slated for May. Delay Tactic As in previous failed national dialogues, it appears that Hezbollah is once again embracing talks as a delay tactic . The United States and Israel, as well as many critics of Hezbollah in Lebanon, understand that after sustaining so many losses in its war of choice in support of Hamas, the militia is looking to buy time to regroup and reconstitute. For his part, President Aoun is seeking to avoid a direct confrontation with Hezbollah, but he is under pressure. US Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus continues to press Aoun and the Lebanese government to fulfil their ceasefire obligations vis-a-vis Hezbollah. As Ortagus recently reiterated to the Lebanese network LBCI, 'that includes disarming Hezbollah and all militias .' Aoun's National Dialogue initiative and his trial balloon suggestion of incorporating Hezbollah fighters into the LAF were a well-intentioned effort to cajole Hezbollah into concessions the group is loath to make. To be sure, conscripting the militia into the LAF was the unstated policy vision for Hezbollah during the Clinton Administration. Yet Aoun clearly understands this approach won't fly with Trump's Washington. Indeed, immediately after floating the idea, Aoun clarified that absorbing Hezbollah into the LAF would not resemble the structure of Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces, known as the Hashd al Shaaby , into the Iraqi military. The Hashd—another Iranian-backed militia force—operates separately and outside the control of the Iraqi government. In the case of Hezbollah, Aoun said, militia members would not be permitted to operate as an independent unit like the Hashd, but would instead be recruited into the military as individuals. Despite Aoun's assurances, the approach—in which Hezbollah loyalists would receive military training and continue to possess weapons—is unlikely to advance the disarmament objective. Predictable Initiative Sadly, this initiative was predictable. On 8 October 2024—two months prior to the ceasefire and three months before Aoun was elected president—I anticipated this outcome in a paper published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy . At the time, I wrote: 'To avoid antagonizing the group (Hezbollah) while placating the West, they may be tempted to finesse the resolution to 'incorporate' Hezbollah into the LAF. This would be unacceptable, however.' Seven months on, the idea remains problematic. Lebanon has committed itself to disarming all militias and establishing a state monopoly on weapons. This is the sine qua non if Lebanon hopes to become a sovereign and successful state. And it is for the first time possible because of Israeli military operations in October and November 2024 that degraded Hezbollah to an unprecedented extent. Incorporating Hezbollah into the LAF will preserve the militia's latent capabilities and undercut the army. Delaying efforts to disarm the militia via an interminable dialogue will provide the group with a reprieve from extreme pressure. With both Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons at their weakest point, Lebanon has a fleeting opportunity to restore its eroded sovereignty. Washington will continue to press Beirut to seize this opportunity, but the decision ultimately rests with President Aoun and the Lebanese government. No doubt, Hezbollah will try to delay its demilitarization in hopes of maintaining a residual capability, and should the government persist and broaden its efforts against the group, there could be violent clashes. Despite the risks, however, there will never be a more favorable time to disarm Hezbollah—with or without its consent—than now. David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute . He worked in the Department of Defense during the George W. Bush administration, and was nominated on April 9, 2018, to head the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in the State Department . . He has written two books, Dancing with Saddam: The Strategic Tango of Jordanian–Iraqi Relations (2003) and Palestinian Democracy and Governance: An Appraisal of the Legislative Council (2000). ( The Washington Institute )

Analysis: Lebanon's new reality encourages Gulf states' visitors to return
Analysis: Lebanon's new reality encourages Gulf states' visitors to return

Miami Herald

time13-05-2025

  • Business
  • Miami Herald

Analysis: Lebanon's new reality encourages Gulf states' visitors to return

BEIRUT, Lebanon, May 13 (UPI) -- The oil-rich Gulf countries, once Lebanon's main supporters, now are making a cautious comeback after years of disengagement. This shift comes as Hezbollah has been significantly weakened, Iran's regional influence has declined and a new Lebanese leadership has emerged, promising long-overdue reforms. Lebanon has long depended on the financial support and investments of Gulf countries, particularly during times of economic hardship and political instability. For decades, Gulf states -- especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait -- provided crucial aid and direct investments that helped Lebanon reconstruct after the 1975-90 civil war and the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, sustain its economy and support its banking sector. However, in recent years, Hezbollah's dominance, Iran's expanding influence, and the Lebanese government's failure to implement reforms prompted Gulf countries to withdraw their support. The suspension of political and financial backing exacerbated Lebanon's severe economic crisis, which began in 2019. Strained diplomatic ties further discouraged private investors, and tourism suffered a major blow. The country was left increasingly isolated at a time when it most needed external assistance. Change begins That began to change last September, when Hezbollah suffered significant setbacks during a destructive war with Israel that broke out in support of Gaza in October 2023, and Iran started to lose its "Axis of Resistance." With Hezbollah's influence substantially reduced, a breakthrough in Lebanon's political deadlock followed. Former army commander Joseph Aoun was elected president and a new government was swiftly formed under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, a respected jurist. Aoun and Salam have pledged to disarm all militias, reassert the state's monopoly on arms and implement long-requested reforms -- signals that the Gulf states welcome. UAE's decision last week to lift the travel ban and allow its citizens to visit Lebanon was a sign of warming relations and renewed willingness to engage. On Monday, Kuwait announced that it will facilitate the return of its citizens to Lebanon, although they kept on visiting the country discretely during the past years. Saudi Arabia, which has snubbed Lebanon, may follow suit soon. Qataris had no issue, as they did not join the Gulf countries in isolating Lebanon in 2021 and have kept on coming, according to an official Lebanese source. The move to alleviate Gulf travel restrictions came after successive visits by President Aoun to urge Saudi, UAE and Kuwait leaders to help revive tourism in his country for such a move would generate immediate revenues. A new reality Aoun was keen to demonstrate that "there is a new reality" in Lebanon, and that there was "no need any more to continue isolating Lebanon and keeping the travel bans," according to the official source. The source said the security situation has improved a lot, despite Israel continuing airstrikes on alleged Hezbollah targets mainly in southern Lebanon beyond the Feb. 18 cease-fire deadline. "These attacks do not threaten the whole country as was the case during the war," he told UPI. Lebanon has been experiencing a significant decline in tourist numbers, which dropped to 1.13 million people in December 2024 from 2.1 million in 2018 to due to political instability, security tensions, the ongoing economic crisis and the recent Israel-Hezbollah war. Tourism revenues, which have been estimated at $5 billion annually in recent years, peaked at $8.6 billion in 2019. To the Gulf countries, security was the main concern. At Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport, strict security measures are now in place. New security chiefs have been appointed, advanced tools -- including AI-powered systems -- have been introduced, several airport staff linked to Hezbollah have been removed and smuggling attempts tied to the group, including a recent effort to move 22 kilograms of gold, have been foiled. Restoring the image The road leading to the airport has received a makeover. Hezbollah flags, banners and images of its leaders and Iranian figures were removed as part of a broader campaign targeting all political groups and aimed at restoring the capital's image and promoting tourism. Now, large posters welcoming visitors with messages of a "New Era" for Lebanon line the route from the airport. Even though such steps -- unthinkable just months ago -- were significant, Saudi Arabia chose to assess the new security measures independently. "We want things to be back to normal. We are waiting for the Saudis, who want to evaluate the security and political situation before taking a decision," the official source said. A Saudi delegation is expected to visit Beirut soon, potentially paving the way for the return of Saudi tourists to Lebanon before the Muslim Al Adha Eid in early June. The source, however, discounted that the return of the Gulf tourists also was linked to disarming Hezbollah, saying that "the issue of Hezbollah weapons is moving slowly." According to Mohanad Hage Ali, an analyst and fellow at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, if the Gulf countries' re-engagement is "truly linked" to disarming Hezbollah, "it might be a long wait." Hage Ali told UPI that the increase in Gulf travel will positively impact Lebanon's tourism this summer. However, any financial support or investments from the oil-rich countries would require Lebanon to implement necessary reforms, which "are currently stuck in [the Lebanese] parliament, awaiting U.S. pressure." Reform is slow He added that "the reform process is slow and depends on international pressure," expressing hope that reform laws would pass before summer and allowing for some support, particularly in the energy sector. That's why attracting back Arab, especially Gulf, tourists and "gaining their trust again," became Lebanon's "high priority," according to Tourism Minister Laura El-Khazen Lahoud. "We are working to address all the issues. ... We are doing everything we can to ensure that the reforms are adopted," Lahoud told UPI. "We want to put Lebanon back on track ... to make sure that it regains the place it deserves on the international touristic map, but things don't happen overnight." She expressed hope that Saudi Arabia will be encouraged and that other countries will lift their ban one after the other. "Unfortunately, they have forgotten how beautiful Lebanon is with its rich history, diverse culture and fascinating nature," she added. Copyright 2025 UPI News Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

Analysis: Lebanon's new reality encourages Gulf states' visitors to return
Analysis: Lebanon's new reality encourages Gulf states' visitors to return

Yahoo

time13-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Analysis: Lebanon's new reality encourages Gulf states' visitors to return

BEIRUT, Lebanon, May 13 (UPI) -- The oil-rich Gulf countries, once Lebanon's main supporters, now are making a cautious comeback after years of disengagement. This shift comes as Hezbollah has been significantly weakened, Iran's regional influence has declined and a new Lebanese leadership has emerged, promising long-overdue reforms. Lebanon has long depended on the financial support and investments of Gulf countries, particularly during times of economic hardship and political instability. For decades, Gulf states -- especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait -- provided crucial aid and direct investments that helped Lebanon reconstruct after the 1975-90 civil war and the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, sustain its economy and support its banking sector. However, in recent years, Hezbollah's dominance, Iran's expanding influence, and the Lebanese government's failure to implement reforms prompted Gulf countries to withdraw their support. The suspension of political and financial backing exacerbated Lebanon's severe economic crisis, which began in 2019. Strained diplomatic ties further discouraged private investors, and tourism suffered a major blow. The country was left increasingly isolated at a time when it most needed external assistance. Change begins That began to change last September, when Hezbollah suffered significant setbacks during a destructive war with Israel that broke out in support of Gaza in October 2023, and Iran started to lose its "Axis of Resistance." With Hezbollah's influence substantially reduced, a breakthrough in Lebanon's political deadlock followed. Former army commander Joseph Aoun was elected president and a new government was swiftly formed under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, a respected jurist. Aoun and Salam have pledged to disarm all militias, reassert the state's monopoly on arms and implement long-requested reforms -- signals that the Gulf states welcome. UAE's decision last week to lift the travel ban and allow its citizens to visit Lebanon was a sign of warming relations and renewed willingness to engage. On Monday, Kuwait announced that it will facilitate the return of its citizens to Lebanon, although they kept on visiting the country discretely during the past years. Saudi Arabia, which has snubbed Lebanon, may follow suit soon. Qataris had no issue, as they did not join the Gulf countries in isolating Lebanon in 2021 and have kept on coming, according to an official Lebanese source. The move to alleviate Gulf travel restrictions came after successive visits by President Aoun to urge Saudi, UAE and Kuwait leaders to help revive tourism in his country for such a move would generate immediate revenues. A new reality Aoun was keen to demonstrate that "there is a new reality" in Lebanon, and that there was "no need any more to continue isolating Lebanon and keeping the travel bans," according to the official source. The source said the security situation has improved a lot, despite Israel continuing airstrikes on alleged Hezbollah targets mainly in southern Lebanon beyond the Feb. 18 cease-fire deadline. "These attacks do not threaten the whole country as was the case during the war," he told UPI. Lebanon has been experiencing a significant decline in tourist numbers, which dropped to 1.13 million people in December 2024 from 2.1 million in 2018 to due to political instability, security tensions, the ongoing economic crisis and the recent Israel-Hezbollah war. Tourism revenues, which have been estimated at $5 billion annually in recent years, peaked at $8.6 billion in 2019. To the Gulf countries, security was the main concern. At Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport, strict security measures are now in place. New security chiefs have been appointed, advanced tools -- including AI-powered systems -- have been introduced, several airport staff linked to Hezbollah have been removed and smuggling attempts tied to the group, including a recent effort to move 22 kilograms of gold, have been foiled. Restoring the image The road leading to the airport has received a makeover. Hezbollah flags, banners and images of its leaders and Iranian figures were removed as part of a broader campaign targeting all political groups and aimed at restoring the capital's image and promoting tourism. Now, large posters welcoming visitors with messages of a "New Era" for Lebanon line the route from the airport. Even though such steps -- unthinkable just months ago -- were significant, Saudi Arabia chose to assess the new security measures independently. "We want things to be back to normal. We are waiting for the Saudis, who want to evaluate the security and political situation before taking a decision," the official source said. A Saudi delegation is expected to visit Beirut soon, potentially paving the way for the return of Saudi tourists to Lebanon before the Muslim Al Adha Eid in early June. The source, however, discounted that the return of the Gulf tourists also was linked to disarming Hezbollah, saying that "the issue of Hezbollah weapons is moving slowly." According to Mohanad Hage Ali, an analyst and fellow at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, if the Gulf countries' re-engagement is "truly linked" to disarming Hezbollah, "it might be a long wait." Hage Ali told UPI that the increase in Gulf travel will positively impact Lebanon's tourism this summer. However, any financial support or investments from the oil-rich countries would require Lebanon to implement necessary reforms, which "are currently stuck in [the Lebanese] parliament, awaiting U.S. pressure." Reform is slow He added that "the reform process is slow and depends on international pressure," expressing hope that reform laws would pass before summer and allowing for some support, particularly in the energy sector. That's why attracting back Arab, especially Gulf, tourists and "gaining their trust again," became Lebanon's "high priority," according to Tourism Minister Laura El-Khazen Lahoud. "We are working to address all the issues. ... We are doing everything we can to ensure that the reforms are adopted," Lahoud told UPI. "We want to put Lebanon back on track ... to make sure that it regains the place it deserves on the international touristic map, but things don't happen overnight." She expressed hope that Saudi Arabia will be encouraged and that other countries will lift their ban one after the other. "Unfortunately, they have forgotten how beautiful Lebanon is with its rich history, diverse culture and fascinating nature," she added.

Abu Dhabi formalizes the lifting of the travel ban to Lebanon starting May 7
Abu Dhabi formalizes the lifting of the travel ban to Lebanon starting May 7

L'Orient-Le Jour

time05-05-2025

  • Business
  • L'Orient-Le Jour

Abu Dhabi formalizes the lifting of the travel ban to Lebanon starting May 7

The United Arab Emirates officially announced Sunday the lifting of a travel ban to Lebanon for Emirati citizens, following a visit by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to Abu Dhabi earlier in the week. The decision will take effect May 7. Emiratis have faced regular travel restrictions to Lebanon since 2021, amid cooling ties between Beirut and Gulf monarchies driven by Iranian-Saudi tensions and Hezbollah's role in Lebanese politics. The most recent ban was issued in August 2023, just weeks before the outbreak of the Hezbollah-Israel war. The Emirati Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that citizens must register on the "Twajudi" platform before traveling and upon return. Travelers are required to submit details such as their residence in Lebanon, emergency contacts, and reasons for their visit. Failure to comply could result in legal action. The decision was initially announced May 1. The UAE Embassy in Beirut confirmed the move to L'Orient-Le Jour, though it did not provide further details on how the procedures will be implemented. 'Lebanon is Emiratis' second homeland,' says Rajji Following the announcement, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called the decision 'a reflection of the depth of fraternal ties between the two countries.' He added, 'It is an initiative that deserves our deepest gratitude to the Emirati state and its president, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Lebanon and the Lebanese eagerly await to welcome back their Emirati brothers — and all their brothers from the Gulf and Arab world — across all regions of Lebanon.' Foreign Minister Joe Rajji expressed his 'deep gratitude' on X to Emirati leadership and the Foreign Ministry for allowing travel to resume starting May 7. 'We look forward to welcoming Emirati nationals to their second homeland, Lebanon,' he wrote. Tourism Minister Laura al-Khazen Lahoud said the announcement 'reflects support for the measures taken by the Lebanese government and various security services to offer quality tourism services and ensure the safety and comfort of visitors.' She described it as a 'restoration of confidence in Lebanon' and voiced hope that 'other Gulf Cooperation Council countries will soon follow the Emirates' example so Lebanon can regain its place as a favored destination for Arabs and a hub for tourism and culture in the region.' Elected Jan. 9, President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam — appointed a month later — have made repairing ties with Gulf states a top priority. Aoun has already visited Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi.

Israeli airstrike hits Beirut suburb despite ceasefire with Hezbollah
Israeli airstrike hits Beirut suburb despite ceasefire with Hezbollah

The Guardian

time27-04-2025

  • Politics
  • The Guardian

Israeli airstrike hits Beirut suburb despite ceasefire with Hezbollah

Israel conducted an airstrike on a residential neighbourhood of Dahiyeh in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sunday afternoon despite a November ceasefire that officially ended fighting with the militant group Hezbollah. Videos showed three bombs hitting a building in Dahiyeh and rescue crews working to extinguish blazes after the blast; however, no casualties were reported. The Israeli military issued an evacuation warning before the bombing, prompting panic as residents fled the area. A spokesperson for the Israeli army said in a post on X that Israeli warplanes destroyed storage sites housing Hezbollah precision missiles. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the defence minister, Israel Katz, said in a joint statement: 'Israel will not allow Hezbollah to grow stronger and pose any threat to it – anywhere in Lebanon.' The Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, called on the US and France – both partners in the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire deal – to put pressure on Israel to stop its strikes on Lebanon. 'The ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity are unacceptable under any pretext,' Aoun said. Israel's strikes on the greater Beirut area on Sunday pointed to the fragility of a November ceasefire agreement that put an end to over 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Fighting started after Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israel on 8 October 2023 'in solidarity' with its ally Hamas's attack on southern Israel a day earlier. In late September, Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon and wide-ranging airstrikes across Lebanon that killed about 3,900 people and displaced almost a million people in Lebanon. Despite the implementation of the ceasefire, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes across Lebanon since November, which it says are targeting members of Hezbollah or the group's infrastructure. Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for one rocket attack in north Israel which it called a 'warning shot' since the ceasefire. Two additional rockets were launched at Israel from Lebanon in March, which Lebanese authorities blamed on a separate armed group. As of yet, Hezbollah has not responded to the near-daily Israeli strikes, instead deferring to the Lebanese state. The capabilities of the group, most of whose senior leadership have been killed over the last two years of fighting, are severely diminished. Under the terms of the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah is to withdraw and be replaced by the Lebanese army south of the Litani river – about 18 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border – and Israel is to withdraw its troops from south Lebanon. Most Israeli troops have withdrawn from south Lebanon, with the exception of five military points it maintains in Lebanon. Ceasefire violations in south Lebanon are meant to be referred to an independent committee and addressed by the Lebanese army, but Lebanese officials have complained that Israel is bypassing this process by unilaterally conducting strikes in Lebanon. The UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, said Sunday's strike 'generated panic and fear of renewed violence among those desperate for a return to normalcy'. Since the end of fighting, Lebanon's government has worked towards re-establishing a monopoly on arms within the country, under immense US pressure to disarm the group. Previously, the Iran-backed militia and political party's resources dwarfed the Lebanese army and the group dominated domestic politics for the two decades preceding the latest Israel-Hezbollah war. Hezbollah has said that it is in compliance with the terms of the ceasefire agreement as far as withdrawing from south Lebanon but its leader, Naim Qassem, said in an April speech that the group 'will not let anyone disarm it'.

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