2 days ago
The New York mayor's race shows a badly divided Democratic Party
At first glance, it's stunning that former New York governor Andrew M. Cuomo and state Rep. Zohran Mamdani are so far ahead of their competitors in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York. After all, the field of candidates, who will debate one another for the first time Wednesday night, includes numerous contenders with more traditional résumés — they aren't 33 years old like Mamdani or had a government report conclude they sexually harassed 11 women like Cuomo.
But if you follow Democratic politics closely, the ascendance of Cuomo and Mamdani is less surprising. In primaries across the country over the past decade, a bloc of disproportionately younger, college-educated and very liberal Democrats have coalesced around progressive candidates. At the same time, older and more-ideologically moderate Democrats, particularly those without college degrees and African Americans, often back more centrist candidates with deep ties to the party's establishment. Ahead of the June 24 primary in New York, Mamdani has become the candidate of the city's young progressives; Cuomo of the older moderates — and there's not much space left for anyone else.
The persistence of this divide matters far beyond New York. Older moderate Democrats and younger progressives have disagreed sharply on how to take on President Donald Trump in the first few months of his administration. Looking forward to 2026 and 2028, it will be hard for Democrats to be unified if every primary results in one big bloc of the party feeling frustrated and unrepresented.
I am shocked that the perennial Democratic divide is so strong that it has made Cuomo and Mamdani the top candidates for mayor of New York. Neither is a conventional candidate for the job. In a city that often chooses insiders with long résumés for mayor, Mamdani is fairly new to the scene and not part of the political establishment. He worked on the campaigns of a few left-wing New York politicians before running on his own in 2020. Helped by an endorsement from the Democratic Socialists of America, he defeated an incumbent in the primary for a Queens state house district and then easily won the general election.
Mamdani of course isn't the only 30-something progressive rising in New York politics. But U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York), who has not endorsed Mamdani but is very critical of Cuomo, isn't in an executive role in a massive city. If elected, Mamdani will need to work with police chiefs, chief executives of major companies and other power brokers who aren't likely to show much deference to a 33-year-old.
Cuomo, who has been the U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban development, New York's attorney general and governor, has the requisite experience. But four years ago, it was hard to imagine him holding office again. The report from the office of New York Attorney General Letitia James detailing Cuomo allegedly touching women without their consent and making inappropriate comments seemed (and should have been) permanently disqualifying, particularly for a party that prides itself on women's rights and autonomy. Cuomo denies the allegations, but resigned under the threat of impeachment.
Also, in 2021, it seemed the Democratic Party had moved decidedly left and would no longer tolerate the centrist Cuomo, who for years had collaborated with Republicans in the New York State Senate to reduce the power of progressives in Albany.
But the ethics scandals and unpopularity of current mayor Eric Adams, who is a Democrat, created a huge void. Numerous candidates — moderates, progressive and those trying to position themselves in between — are all running, including city Comptroller Brad Lander and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams. (She is not related to the incumbent mayor.)
It's a very complicated election. The Democratic primary will be decided by ranked-choice voting, meaning that New Yorkers actually select up to five candidates, putting them in order of their preferences. Eric Adams, fearing he would lose the primary, is running as an independent. Mamdani or Cuomo, who are affiliated with minor parties in New York, could run in the general election even if they lose the primary. So it's possible New York has a four-way race in the fall: the Democratic primary winner; the runner-up; Adams; and the Republican candidate.
What's less complicated is how voters and activists have aligned themselves so far. New York is one of the nation's most distinct cities, but its mayoral race is playing out similarly to other recent Democratic primaries across the country. Cuomo is getting support from veteran politicians, church leaders and labor unions who backed his past campaigns and in some cases his father's. (Mario Cuomo was New York's governor from 1983-1994). That establishment support is helping him with voters more likely to be connected with those institutions, particularly voters older than 50 and African Americans. His voting base resembles the ones that helped former secretary of state Hillary Clinton defeat Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) in the 2016 Democratic primary and former president Joe Biden beat Sanders in 2020.
The kind of voters who were drawn to Sanders nationally are behind Mamdani in New York: White college graduates, people younger than 50 and those who identify themselves as very liberal in particular. Like Sanders, Mamdani is courting voters by proposing progressive ideas, such as a rent freeze and free city buses. He's also appealing to them with clever, personable ads and videos.
I hope Mamdani wins. My policy views are closer to his than Cuomo's. And while Cuomo says he did nothing wrong, James's report depicts someone who should never again be given a powerful job.
That said, even if Mamdani became mayor, I would be concerned about how he got there and what it portends for the broader American left. It's entirely logical that there are some fissures in the Democratic Party, which is made up of millions of people. What's so troubling is how big and perhaps intractable those divides are.
Biden entered the presidency facing deep skepticism from progressives and younger Democrats because so few of them backed him during the primary. He never really gained their trust. Similarly, President Sanders likely would have received little grace or loyalty from moderate or older Democratic voters, who opposed him en masse. In New York, Mamdani would triumph despite strong resistance from older moderates in the party; a Cuomo win would be a defeat for young progressives.
The party desperately needs to break this old/moderate/non-college vs. young/progressive/college-educated divide. But that's not easy. Progressives like me view the old guard as stuck in the past, conservative and uncreative. Moderate Democrats view progressives as elitist and impractical. Having such negative views of people you are supposed to be in coalition with is not ideal.
Progressives think the party's left wing should be in charge. (The moderates' leadership has led us to a country where Trump dominates politics.) The moderates would rightly point that Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden didn't win presidential elections by calling themselves socialists.
Mamdani is a charismatic, inspirational politician. He has a much better chance of moving people in the other camp to his than Cuomo, who is disliked even by people who agree with him on policy. But the New York race has made me even more nervous about 2027 and 2028. Will Democrats, instead of focusing on Trump, engage in a super-divisive, toxic presidential primary? If progressives and moderates remain divided by age, education, ideology and race, then the answer to that question seems, obviously, yes.
