Latest news with #Hubris
CNBC
23-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Bank of America's Hartnett is fighting the flow and making a contrarian play on bonds
After a wild week for Treasury yields, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is making a big contrarian call, telling clients to bet on battered long-duration U.S. government debt. In a trade he calls "Buy Humiliation, sell Hubris," the firm's chief investment strategist thinks the 30-year bond, yielding over 5% around levels not seen since late-2023 and the dot-com bust before that, is a "cyclical buy opportunity." Writing in his weekly report on where investor cash is moving, Hartnett noted that long bonds are in the "same humiliating place that stock returns were in Feb'09 (-3.4%, then worst rolling return from stocks since 1939) & commodity returns were in Jun'18." In both of those cases, and particularly for equities, they were great entry points that capitalized on downbeat investor sentiment. "Catalysts of [the] 2020s bond bear market [are] now very well-documented in 2025, very priced in, maybe not fully but very priced in," Hartnett wrote. Indeed, investors have soured on bonds based on multiple triggers: worries over tariff-induced inflation as President Donald Trump engages in a global trade war ; the fiscal mess in Washington, particularly following this week's House passage of the "big, beautiful" spending bill that is expected to push government debt and deficits still higher, and an accommodative Federal Reserve that cut interest rates a full percentage point in the latter part of 2024. The 30-year yield is up nearly a full percentage point since the Fed started cutting in September, with the rest of the curve following the path higher. US30Y 1Y line 30 year yield "We say this is perfectly sensible given 'all hat and no cattle' path of US tariff policy (note Trump's approval rating has also recovered its Liberation Day losses), the 'DOGE is out, tax cuts are in' Q2 pivot, investor need to hedge risk 'bubble & boom' policies pursued as politically easiest way to reduce debt as % GDP," Hartnett wrote. However, he said the 30-year bond yield above 5% is "a great entry-point because…'losing the long-end' (and the US dollar) not a winner… > 5% bond yields negative for today's highly 'financialized' US economy relative to Rest-of-World, and bond vigilantes incentivized to punish unambiguously unsustainable path of debt & deficit." Investors actually pushed money to bonds over the past week, with the asset class seeing $25 billion in inflows, according to Bank of America. Investment grade fixed income scored $13.5 billion of fresh cash, the most since the September turning point for yields, while high yield drew $1.9 billion in the past week.
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
Why isn't Avengers: Doomsday actually exciting?
There aren't many things I would willingly do for five and a half hours. Certainly, that shortlist of things wouldn't have included watching an IMDb cast list revealed on the back of some chairs. However, that's exactly what the Avengers: Doomsday marketing team banked on people doing last week. Hubris, thy name is Kevin Feige. On the one hand, though, it's all quite understandable. A decade ago, Marvel could have done this and it would have been brilliant. When the Infinity Saga dominated cinema, we all would have been riveted at the concept of seeing the MCU's biggest cast ever receiving a gradual grand unveiling. But a lot has changed since Tony Stark snapped his fingers in the final moments of Avengers: Endgame. The most remarkable thing about the Avengers: Doomsday reveal is that nobody seems to be all that excited about it. For starters, the biggest surprise in this film — Robert Downey Jr's return to the franchise — was already spilled at Comic-Con way back in July 2024. Had this not already been revealed, the cast announcement's big pay-off — Downey Jr sitting in his chair and shushing at the camera — could have really landed. Instead, the feeling is more than a little muted. If anything, the cast announcement just underlined how light on A-list heroes the MCU currently feels. Admittedly, a lot depends on how well 2025's upcoming Marvel outings — Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four: First Steps — fare, given the prominence of those characters in the Doomsday cast. If those films turn out to be amazing, Doomsday will suddenly look much more impressive. Read more: The large cast of Avengers: Doomsday has become a meme (For The Win, 1 min read) But there's a more fundamental problem than the names. Marvel appears to have forgotten what powered the Infinity Saga — its destination. From the moment Thanos was revealed as Loki's superior at the end of The Avengers in 2012, we knew the big, purple baddie was looming in the Avengers' future with a glove full of colourful rocks. For the six years and 12 films between the first Avengers movie and Infinity War, the universe had a clear sense of direction and a formidable foe at the end of the road. It has now been six years and 13 films since Avengers: Endgame and, in all of that time, there has not even been a hint of that direction. Part of this is not a creative issue — Jonathan Majors as Kang was being teased as the franchise-wide villain for a while, prior to the assault allegations against him — but, even then, there was no sense that this was a coherent build-up. Marvel's cinematic story tapestry was never just about the act of assembling as many A-listers in one place as possible. It was about putting together a cast of heroes to take on a threat much bigger than any of them had ever faced in their individual movies. With Doomsday, though, we have no idea what's coming — we don't even know much about Downey Jr's take on Doctor Doom. Even Marvel's surprises don't hit particularly hard any more. The Doomsday announcement revealed that several members of the original X-Men cast — including Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen — will appear in the movie, suggesting some multiversal shenanigans. But these characters have felt like a fait accompli ever since Disney acquired Fox six years ago. It's less of a surprise than Hugh Jackman showing up as Wolverine in an MCU movie last year. Read more: Marvel fans "freaking out" about X-Men returns for Avengers: Doomsday (Digital Spy, 3 min read) Instead of feeling like a culmination, Avengers: Doomsday actually seems as if it's going to serve as a starting point. It's a statement of intent as to who will take centre stage in the MCU going forward, with the old guard giving way to the new. Along with its sequel, Secret Wars, in 2027, Doomsday will essentially wipe the slate clean and usher in a new world order for the MCU. But that creates something of an excitement gap. It's hard to get hyped for a team-up movie when we don't yet know most of the team and we haven't got a clue what will bring them together. Having said that, though, Marvel certainly got eyeballs with the live stream stunt. The marathon video earned 275 million views — though it's unclear how many of them watched for more than a few seconds — and broke every record for a Marvel-themed live stream. Read more: 'Avengers: Doomsday' Stunt Clocks 275M Views, Marvel Livestream All-Time Record (Deadline, 2 min read) But despite the sheer numbers, there's a clear sense that the MCU is not the cultural behemoth it used to be. The Doomsday cast reveal would once have been an internet-breaking statement of intent. But instead, it felt like an endurance test of an administrative exercise. Marvel cannot simply swagger through culture any more; it needs to give us something concrete to cling to. Avengers: Doomsday will be released in UK cinemas on 1 May 2026.
