07-05-2025
How China is seeing Operation Sindoor
Chinese scholars, including Long Xingchun , Hui Suisheng, and Liu Zongyi, have long characterised India's military actions as provocative and unilateral. Their analyses consistently frame India's retaliatory strikes as part of an escalating pattern of aggression.
India's military preparedness has dominated the conversation across Chinese online platforms, especially in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack and India's assertive military response. Speculation over a potential India-Pakistan conflict is rampant, but one underlying theme is striking: the portrayal of Pakistan not as a fragile state, but as a determined and increasingly capable military power. It challenges the conventional image of Pakistan as the weaker adversary in the region.
A stronger Pakistan?
On Chinese platforms such as Weibo and Baidu, Pakistan is being seen as not just holding its ground, but actively modernising its military. A popular Weibo hashtag, #India_opens_fire_on_Pakistan_without_provocation, has sparked substantial online debate, amplifying the perception that Pakistan is preparing for a military escalation. Pakistani officials, including the ambassador to Russia, have been unequivocal about Islamabad's readiness to escalate to nuclear war, if necessary. 'Pakistan will use all types of capabilities, including conventional and nuclear,' said the ambassador to Chinese media.
Commentators in the country are increasingly asking: Should conflict erupt, would China stand by Pakistan?
Discussions on Baidu point to India's unresolved border disputes with Pakistan and China, framing these as deliberate provocations. One post provocatively asks: 'Has India forgotten the lessons of 1962? Is it once again eyeing its neighbours' territory?'
Such comments highlight the perception that China's support is helping Pakistan modernise its military, narrowing the longstanding power gap with India. Despite Pakistan's smaller size, this commentator emphasised that its forces are increasingly agile, technologically advanced, and increasingly capable of challenging India's military might.
India's military size—boasting 14 lakh active troops and a defence budget of Rs 6.81 lakh crore in 2025—is viewed as insignificant by Chinese commentators, owing to its internal fragmentation. The Indian military is described as a patchwork of outdated Soviet-era tanks, Western aircraft, and domestically produced weapons. Its perceived internal divisions and lack of standardisation are seen as hindrances to battlefield efficiency. In contrast, Pakistan is presented as having a more streamlined and strategic military force, despite its smaller size.
India has accelerated military upgrades, including the deployment of T-90 tanks in Kashmir and Rafale jets equipped with Meteor missiles. However, a Chinese analyst argues that these efforts are primarily in response to Pakistan's nuclear deterrence. According to him, the 2019 MiG-21 incident in which Pakistan downed an Indian jet and captured its pilot remains a cornerstone of Pakistan's military narrative, symbolising its resolve and deterrence capabilities. With China's support, Pakistan has bolstered its air power, adding advanced SH-15 howitzers and J-10C fighters to its arsenal. While India retains a numerical advantage, China's backing complicates the strategic calculus, the analyst wrote.
The Shanghai Observer highlighted the ongoing military signalling between the two nations. Pakistan's recent missile tests, including the Fatah missile and the Abdali Weapon System, were seen as a direct response to India's air force upgrades. The commentary also framed India's efforts to regain air superiority as a reaction to a 'shameful experience' in 2019, suggesting that India is scrambling to recover from its perceived humiliation.
Also read: Away from LoC, General Munir is losing a far more fateful war within Pakistan
China's strategic support to Pakistan
China has long been a staunch ally of Pakistan in its rivalry with India, offering both military and economic support. During the 1965 war, for example, China provided J-6 fighters and artillery, counterbalancing India's numerical advantage. As tensions persist, a Chinese analyst predicts that Beijing will continue its diplomatic and logistical support for Pakistan. While it'll likely avoid direct military involvement, China will also ensure that Pakistan remains strategically empowered.
In a potential India-Pakistan conflict, commentators argue, the battle would see Chinese military hardware, such as the J-10CE fighter jets and YJ anti-ship missiles, facing off against India's French Rafales and indigenous aircraft carriers. While India's larger military and defence budget confer an advantage, commentators argue that Pakistan's focus on strategic superiority, particularly in the air, backed by Chinese technology, could help level the playing field. India's ties with countries like the US and Israel reflect broader geopolitical manoeuvres, particularly concerning the CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor). India's aggressive posturing, including threats over water security, may also backfire diplomatically, driving further interest in Chinese military technology.
'If Pakistan wants to win the war, it needs to wait for the J-35 and 054B, and then the Indian army will have no chance of winning,' a Weibo user wrote. However, another post pointed out that while Pakistan may dominate the skies with advanced Chinese jets, its ground forces could suffer significant losses due to India's growing investment in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and FPV drones since 2020. This technological imbalance could lead to major setbacks for Pakistan, even with Chinese support.
A minority view within China contends that Pakistan's overall military power remains inferior to India's. The latter's superior leverage and military technology are likely to keep Islamabad in a reactive position. However, even this commentary concludes by suggesting that through continued reforms and strategic partnerships, Pakistan could narrow the gap over time.
Also read: Operation Sindoor strikes aren't the 'end'. It's the first salvo of a long-drawn-out battle
Slanted talk
While the likelihood of a full-scale war remains uncertain, the Chinese narrative around a potential India-Pakistan conflict consistently casts Pakistan as a formidable force. The discourse often shifts away from direct comparisons between India and Pakistan, focusing instead on the broader China-India rivalry and Chinese support to Islamabad. The message is clear: with China firmly behind it, Pakistan stands a better chance in a military escalation while India's preparedness remains dubious.
China continues to offer diplomatic and military support to Pakistan, positioning itself as a key player in any future clash. As the strategic rivalry between India and Pakistan endures, China's backing ensures that Beijing will significantly shape the outcome of the conflict.
Sana Hashmi is a fellow at the Taiwan Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)
