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Yahoo
12-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
What would happen if the OSIRIS-REx asteroid Bennu smashed into Earth in 2182?
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. What would happen if Earth were struck by another catastrophic asteroid? While such an event would be devastating, researchers at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea wondered specifically how Earth's climate and ecosystems might change in the aftermath of such an impact. They calculated that there is a very small chance — about 1-in-2700, or 0.037% to be exact — that asteroid Bennu, which is roughly the size of the Empire State Building, could collide with our planet in September 2182. Bennu was the target for NASA's OSIRIS-REx asteroid sampling mission, which touched down briefly on the space rock in October 2020 to gather over 4 ounces of material, and then brought that sample back to Earth for a landing in the Utah desert in September 2023. While the odds of Bennu impacting Earth may sound alarming, they're not entirely unexpected. "On average, medium-sized asteroids collide with Earth about every 100–200 thousand years. This means that our early human ancestors may have experienced some of these planet-shifting events before with potential impacts on human evolution and even our own genetic makeup," Axel Timmermann, professor at IBS and one of the study's contributing authors, said in a statement. While some are left to worry about Bennu's low probability of impact, the IBS researchers used advanced climate models and the supercomputer Aleph to figure out what would happen after. "Depending on the collision parameters, an impact between a medium-sized asteroid and Earth could cause regional to large-scale devastation," wrote Timmermann and his colleague Lan Dai in their study. "Beyond immediate effects such as thermal radiation, earthquakes, and tsunamis, asteroid impacts would have long-lasting climatic effects by emitting large quantities of aerosols and gases into the atmosphere." Previous studies have extensively explored the aftermath of the much larger Chicxulub asteroid, which took place around 66 million years and was likely responsible for the mass extinction of the dinosaurs. But it was not the impact that had the most devastating effect: the 6-mile-wide (10 kilometers) asteroid ejected enormous amounts of dust, soot, and sulfur into the atmosphere, which created a global "impact winter." "Less attention has been paid to the effects of medium-sized asteroid collisions, which are far more frequent than the 'planet killer' asteroids but yet still can have marked global consequences," wrote Dai and Timmermann. The impact excessive amounts of dust can have on the climate depend on several factors: how much dust enters Earth's atmosphere, where it gets "injected" and how long it hangs around. After running several scenarios using their model, the researchers found that injecting around 100–400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere would cause dramatic disruptions to the climate, alter Earth's atmospheric chemistry, and reduce global photosynthesis for several years after the impact. "The abrupt impact winter would provide unfavorable climate conditions for plants to grow, leading to an initial 20–30% reduction of photosynthesis in terrestrial and marine ecosystems," said Dai in a statement. "This would likely cause massive disruptions in global food security." In the most extreme scenario, solar dimming caused by the dust could cool the planet by up to around 39 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), reduce global rainfall by 15%, and deplete the ozone layer by about 32% — and these impacts could be even worse depending on the region. This wasn't entirely unexpected, but the duo was surprised to find that oceanic data from their simulations showed plankton might recover more quickly than land plants. Instead of the rapid decline and slow two-year recovery seen on land, plankton in the ocean bounced back within six months and even increased beyond normal levels afterwards. "We were able to track this unexpected response to the iron concentration in the dust," said Timmerman. This is because iron is a key nutrient for algae. The Earth's upper crust contains around 3.5% iron, and dust generated on impact would carry these nutrients into the ocean, along with any additional iron that might be carried by the asteroid. "Depending on the iron content of the asteroid and of the terrestrial material, that is blasted into the stratosphere, the otherwise nutrient-depleted regions can become nutrient-enriched with bioavailable iron, which in turn triggers unprecedented algae blooms," the scientists wrote in their study. RELATED STORIES: — Asteroid Bennu: The squishy space rock that almost swallowed a spacecraft — 1st look at asteroid Bennu samples suggests space rock may even be 'a fragment of an ancient ocean world' — How NASA's OSIRIS-REx mission will help protect Earth against asteroid Bennu and its flyby in 2182 "The simulated excessive phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms might be a blessing for the biosphere and may help alleviate emerging food insecurity related to the longer-lasting reduction in terrestrial productivity," added Dai. The world would undoubtedly change after such an event, with rapid cooling and ecosystem collapse making survival a challenge. However, understanding these potential impacts could help prepare humanity for this possible future. "Our simulated climatic and ecological responses to dust injections from medium-sized asteroid collisions provide the basis to quantify the possible effects of abrupt events on planetary life," they concluded. The study "Climatic and ecological responses to Bennu-type asteroid collisions" was published in the journal Science Advances on Feb. 5.
Jordan News
08-02-2025
- Science
- Jordan News
Scientists predict devastation if asteroid Bennu strikes Earth in 2182 - Jordan News
The rocky object called Bennu is classified as a near-Earth asteroid, currently making its closest approach to Earth every six years at about 186,000 miles (299,000 km) away. It might come even closer in the future, with scientists estimating a one-in-2,700 chance of a collision with Earth in September 2182. اضافة اعلان So what would happen should Bennu strike our planet? Well, it would not be pretty, according to new research based on computer simulations of an impact by an asteroid with a diameter of roughly three-tenths of a mile (500 meters) like Bennu. Aside from the immediate devastation, it estimated that such an impact would inject 100-400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere, causing disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis lasting three to four years. "The solar dimming due to dust would cause an abrupt global 'impact winter' characterized by reduced sunlight, cold temperature and decreased precipitation at the surface," said Lan Dai, a postdoctoral research fellow at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea and lead author of the study published this week in the journal Science Advances. In the worst-case scenario, the researchers found that Earth's average surface temperature would decrease by about 7 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), average rainfall would fall by 15%, there would be a reduction of up to 20-30% in plant photosynthesis and a 32% depletion in the planet's ozone layer that protects against harmful solar ultraviolet radiation. The impact of a Bennu-sized object - a medium-sized asteroid - on Earth's land surface would generate a powerful shockwave, earthquakes, wildfires and thermal radiation, leave a gaping crater and eject huge amounts of debris upward, the researchers said. Reuters
Yahoo
06-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Scientists predict devastation if asteroid Bennu strikes Earth in 2182
By Will Dunham WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The rocky object called Bennu is classified as a near-Earth asteroid, currently making its closest approach to Earth every six years at about 186,000 miles (299,000 km) away. It might come even closer in the future, with scientists estimating a one-in-2,700 chance of a collision with Earth in September 2182. So what would happen should Bennu strike our planet? Well, it would not be pretty, according to new research based on computer simulations of an impact by an asteroid with a diameter of roughly three-tenths of a mile (500 meters) like Bennu. Aside from the immediate devastation, it estimated that such an impact would inject 100-400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere, causing disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis lasting three to four years. "The solar dimming due to dust would cause an abrupt global 'impact winter' characterized by reduced sunlight, cold temperature and decreased precipitation at the surface," said Lan Dai, a postdoctoral research fellow at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea and lead author of the study published this week in the journal Science Advances. In the worst-case scenario, the researchers found that Earth's average surface temperature would decrease by about 7 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), average rainfall would fall by 15%, there would be a reduction of up to 20-30% in plant photosynthesis and a 32% depletion in the planet's ozone layer that protects against harmful solar ultraviolet radiation. The impact of a Bennu-sized object - a medium-sized asteroid - on Earth's land surface would generate a powerful shockwave, earthquakes, wildfires and thermal radiation, leave a gaping crater and eject huge amounts of debris upward, the researchers said. Large quantities of aerosols and gases would reach the upper atmosphere, causing years-long effects on climate and ecosystems, according to Dai and study senior author Axel Timmermann, a climate physicist and ICCP director. The unfavorable climate conditions would inhibit plant growth on land and in the ocean, they said. "In contrast to the rapid reduction and slow two-year-long recovery of plants on land, plankton in the ocean would recover within six months - and even increase afterward with unprecedented diatom (a type of algae) blooms triggered by iron-rich dust deposition into the ocean," Dai said. Severe ozone depletion would occur in the stratosphere - the second atmospheric layer as you go upward - due to strong warming caused by the solar absorption of dust particles, the researchers said. An asteroid collision of this magnitude could cause massive loss of human life, but that calculation was outside the study's scope. Dai said the potential death toll "mainly depends on where the asteroid impact occurs." Scientists know a great deal about Bennu, considered a "rubble pile" asteroid - a loose amalgamation of rocky material rather than a solid object. It is a rocky remnant of a larger celestial body that had formed near the dawn of the solar system roughly 4.5 billion years ago. NASA's robotic OSIRIS-REx spacecraft journeyed to Bennu and in 2020 collected samples of rock and dust for analysis. A study published in January showed that Bennu's samples bore some of the chemical building blocks of life, strong evidence that asteroids may have seeded early Earth with the raw ingredients that fostered the emergence of living organisms. Asteroids have struck Earth occasionally over its long history, often with cataclysmic results. An asteroid estimated at 6-9 miles (10-15 km) wide hit off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago, eradicating about three-quarters of the world's species and ending the age of dinosaurs. NASA in 2022 carried out a proof-of-principle planetary defense mission by using its robotic DART spacecraft to change the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, with an eye toward doing this in the future if one appears on a collision course with Earth. "The likelihood that a Bennu-sized asteroid will strike Earth is quite small at 0.037%. Even though small, the potential impact would be very serious and would likely lead to massive longer-term food insecurity on our planet and climate conditions that are similar to those seen only for some of the largest volcanic eruptions in the last 100,000 years," Timmermann said. "So it is important to think about the risk," Timmermann added.
MTV Lebanon
06-02-2025
- Science
- MTV Lebanon
Scientists Predict Devastation if Asteroid Bennu Strikes Earth in 2182
The rocky object called Bennu is classified as a near-Earth asteroid, currently making its closest approach to Earth every six years at about 186,000 miles (299,000 km) away. It might come even closer in the future, with scientists estimating a one-in-2,700 chance of a collision with Earth in September 2182. So what would happen should Bennu strike our planet? Well, it would not be pretty, according to new research based on computer simulations of an impact by an asteroid with a diameter of roughly three-tenths of a mile (500 meters) like Bennu. Aside from the immediate devastation, it estimated that such an impact would inject 100-400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere, causing disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis lasting three to four years. "The solar dimming due to dust would cause an abrupt global 'impact winter' characterized by reduced sunlight, cold temperature and decreased precipitation at the surface," said Lan Dai, a postdoctoral research fellow at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea and lead author of the study published this week in the journal Science Advances, opens new tab. In the worst-case scenario, the researchers found that Earth's average surface temperature would decrease by about 7 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), average rainfall would fall by 15%, there would be a reduction of up to 20-30% in plant photosynthesis and a 32% depletion in the planet's ozone layer that protects against harmful solar ultraviolet radiation. The impact of a Bennu-sized object - a medium-sized asteroid - on Earth's land surface would generate a powerful shockwave, earthquakes, wildfires and thermal radiation, leave a gaping crater and eject huge amounts of debris upward, the researchers said. Large quantities of aerosols and gases would reach the upper atmosphere, causing years-long effects on climate and ecosystems, according to Dai and study senior author Axel Timmermann, a climate physicist and ICCP director. The unfavorable climate conditions would inhibit plant growth on land and in the ocean, they said. "In contrast to the rapid reduction and slow two-year-long recovery of plants on land, plankton in the ocean would recover within six months - and even increase afterward with unprecedented diatom (a type of algae) blooms triggered by iron-rich dust deposition into the ocean," Dai said. Severe ozone depletion would occur in the stratosphere - the second atmospheric layer as you go upward - due to strong warming caused by the solar absorption of dust particles, the researchers said. An asteroid collision of this magnitude could cause massive loss of human life, but that calculation was outside the study's scope. Dai said the potential death toll "mainly depends on where the asteroid impact occurs." Scientists know a great deal about Bennu, considered a "rubble pile" asteroid - a loose amalgamation of rocky material rather than a solid object. It is a rocky remnant of a larger celestial body that had formed near the dawn of the solar system roughly 4.5 billion years ago. NASA's robotic OSIRIS-REx spacecraft journeyed to Bennu and in 2020 collected samples of rock and dust for analysis. A study published in January showed that Bennu's samples bore some of the chemical building blocks of life, strong evidence that asteroids may have seeded early Earth with the raw ingredients that fostered the emergence of living organisms. Asteroids have struck Earth occasionally over its long history, often with cataclysmic results. An asteroid estimated at 6-9 miles (10-15 km) wide hit off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago, eradicating about three-quarters of the world's species and ending the age of dinosaurs. NASA in 2022 carried out a proof-of-principle planetary defense mission by using its robotic DART spacecraft to change the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, with an eye toward doing this in the future if one appears on a collision course with Earth. "The likelihood that a Bennu-sized asteroid will strike Earth is quite small at 0.037%. Even though small, the potential impact would be very serious and would likely lead to massive longer-term food insecurity on our planet and climate conditions that are similar to those seen only for some of the largest volcanic eruptions in the last 100,000 years," Timmermann said. "So it is important to think about the risk," Timmermann added.
Asharq Al-Awsat
06-02-2025
- Science
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Scientists Predict Devastation if Asteroid Bennu Strikes Earth in 2182
The rocky object called Bennu is classified as a near-Earth asteroid, currently making its closest approach to Earth every six years at about 186,000 miles (299,000 km) away. It might come even closer in the future, with scientists estimating a one-in-2,700 chance of a collision with Earth in September 2182, Reuters reported. So what would happen should Bennu strike our planet? Well, it would not be pretty, according to new research based on computer simulations of an impact by an asteroid with a diameter of roughly three-tenths of a mile (500 meters) like Bennu. Aside from the immediate devastation, it estimated that such an impact would inject 100-400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere, causing disruptions in climate, atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis lasting three to four years. "The solar dimming due to dust would cause an abrupt global 'impact winter' characterized by reduced sunlight, cold temperature and decreased precipitation at the surface," said Lan Dai, a postdoctoral research fellow at the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) at Pusan National University in South Korea and lead author of the study published this week in the journal Science Advances. In the worst-case scenario, the researchers found that Earth's average surface temperature would decrease by about 7 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), average rainfall would fall by 15%, there would be a reduction of up to 20-30% in plant photosynthesis and a 32% depletion in the planet's ozone layer that protects against harmful solar ultraviolet radiation. The impact of a Bennu-sized object - a medium-sized asteroid - on Earth's land surface would generate a powerful shockwave, earthquakes, wildfires and thermal radiation, leave a gaping crater and eject huge amounts of debris upward, the researchers said. Large quantities of aerosols and gases would reach the upper atmosphere, causing years-long effects on climate and ecosystems, according to Dai and study senior author Axel Timmermann, a climate physicist and ICCP director. The unfavorable climate conditions would inhibit plant growth on land and in the ocean, they said. "In contrast to the rapid reduction and slow two-year-long recovery of plants on land, plankton in the ocean would recover within six months - and even increase afterward with unprecedented diatom (a type of algae) blooms triggered by iron-rich dust deposition into the ocean," Dai said. Severe ozone depletion would occur in the stratosphere - the second atmospheric layer as you go upward - due to strong warming caused by the solar absorption of dust particles, the researchers said. An asteroid collision of this magnitude could cause massive loss of human life, but that calculation was outside the study's scope. Dai said the potential death toll "mainly depends on where the asteroid impact occurs." Scientists know a great deal about Bennu, considered a "rubble pile" asteroid - a loose amalgamation of rocky material rather than a solid object. It is a rocky remnant of a larger celestial body that had formed near the dawn of the solar system roughly 4.5 billion years ago. NASA's robotic OSIRIS-REx spacecraft journeyed to Bennu and in 2020 collected samples of rock and dust for analysis. A study published in January showed that Bennu's samples bore some of the chemical building blocks of life, strong evidence that asteroids may have seeded early Earth with the raw ingredients that fostered the emergence of living organisms. Asteroids have struck Earth occasionally over its long history, often with cataclysmic results. An asteroid estimated at 6-9 miles (10-15 km) wide hit off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago, eradicating about three-quarters of the world's species and ending the age of dinosaurs. NASA in 2022 carried out a proof-of-principle planetary defense mission by using its robotic DART spacecraft to change the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, with an eye toward doing this in the future if one appears on a collision course with Earth. "The likelihood that a Bennu-sized asteroid will strike Earth is quite small at 0.037%. Even though small, the potential impact would be very serious and would likely lead to massive longer-term food insecurity on our planet and climate conditions that are similar to those seen only for some of the largest volcanic eruptions in the last 100,000 years," Timmermann said. "So it is important to think about the risk," Timmermann added.
