5 days ago
Latest On Russian Aircraft Loss Assessments From Ukrainian Drone Strikes
Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery that TWZ has obtained from U.S.-based ICEYE US further points to multiple Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers having been damaged or destroyed at Belaya Air Base. Situated in Russia's eastern Irkutsk region, Belaya was one of five bases that Ukraine targeted in unprecedented covert drone attacks over the weekend. Exactly how many of Russia's aircraft were struck remains unconfirmed, and readers can first get up to speed on what is known about the operation and its aftermath in our past reporting here.
The image of Belaya that ICEYE US provided to TWZ was taken on June 1, the day of the Ukrainian drone attacks, and shows what the firm has assessed to be at least four Tu-95s likely damaged or destroyed at that base, as seen below. However, the resolution of the image and the nature of SAR, which does not show the same kinds of details that would be available in visual spectrum imagery, do make it difficult to definitively determine the state of any of the aircraft.
Ukrainian authorities claim to have hit 41 aircraft, in total, including Tu-95 Bear, Tu-22M Backfire, and Tu-160 Blackjack bombers, as well as A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft, and other types. In addition to Belaya, Russia's Dyagilevo, Ivanovo, Olenya, and Ukrainka air bases were also said to have been targeted.
Because I've not seen it anywhere yet…Here's a map I made of the 4 Russian air bases that Ukraine hit with drone attacks just now (red stars)Look how deeply they penetrate into Russian territory. Slava Ukraini.
— Mike Galsworthy (@mikegalsworthy) June 1, 2025
The New York Times separately reported today that as many as 20 planes at Belaya and Olenya, at least, were struck, citing unnamed American and European security officials. Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, previously said that 'at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed.' Independent verification of these claims remains difficult and they continue to be largely speculative.
ICEYE's specific assessments regarding Belaya do align with what can be seen in other SAR imagery of that particular base now circulating online from Capella Space and Umbra Space. Commercial satellite providers that offer SAR imaging capability have been a go-to since Ukraine launched its drone attacks due to heavy cloud cover over the targeted bases in Russia. SAR provides a valuable all-weather imaging option that can also 'see' through smoke, dust, and other obscurants.
The revetted parking positions.
— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) June 2, 2025
Satellite imagery shows Ukraine attack destroyed and damaged Russian bombers Drone operation was one of Ukraine's most damaging of war so farhttps:// via @Reuters
— Nino Brodin (@Orgetorix) June 3, 2025
'What we're seeing across multiple theaters reinforces why persistent, all-weather monitoring capabilities are essential for understanding rapidly evolving situations,' a spokesperson for ICEYE US told TWZ. 'Commercial SAR technology provides decision-makers with continuous situational awareness that doesn't depend on weather conditions or time of day—capabilities that are increasingly critical as conflicts become more dynamic and distributed.'
'The ability to detect changes in infrastructure, movement patterns, and ground conditions through any weather gives commanders and analysts the persistent vigilance they need to make informed decisions,' they added. 'This is exactly why we've focused on delivering commercial capabilities that complement national systems—providing redundancy and additional perspective when traditional sensors might be limited.'
At the same time, as TWZ has previously noted, SAR imagery, of the commercial variety in particular, has limitations for evaluating the kinds of damage that are of interest in the wake of Ukraine's drone attacks. Pairing SAR images with other intelligence-related products can help bridge the certainty gap.
When it comes to Belaya, videos taken at ground level had previously emerged online showing smoke rising from the base following the Ukrainain attacks, which lends further credence to what is seen in the SAR imagery.
Footage of a Ukrainian FPV strike drone flying towards Russia's Belaya Airbase, already heavily base, home to a number of bombers, was hit this afternoon.
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2025
Belaya, June 1, 2025, operation Spiderweb, another footage
— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) June 2, 2025
Video footage of the drone attacks on Olenya Air Base, located in far northwestern Russia near the Barents Sea, including views from the cameras on first-person-view (FPV) type kamikaze drones, had also previously appeared online. Olenya looks to have been one of the hardest hit bases, with the dramatic drone videos showing Tu-95 bombers, as well as an An-12 Cub cargo plane, being targeted. A satellite image of Olenya taken today from Planet Labs may show three Tu-95s and the An-12 damaged and/or destroyed, but it is too low-resolution to be conclusive.
Olenya/Olenegorsk/Vysokiy (part one).Smoking Tu-95: 68.139848, 33.444469Burning Tu-95: 68.143294, 33.448041Burning Tu-95: 68.144249, 33.448926Destroyed Tu-95: 68.145419, 33.449928Source:
— Evergreen Intel (@ 2025-06-02T14:22:59.735Z
Olenya/Olenegorsk/Vysokiy (part two).Burning An-12: 68.146555, 33.450901Destroyed Tu-95MS from part 3 at 68.145419, 33.449928 identified as RF-94257 '22 Red'
— Evergreen Intel (@ 2025-06-02T14:24:07.929Z
Satellite images of
Olenya Airbase as of June 3, 09:55 UTCThe airbase housed 1 Tu-160 (Blackjack), 1 Il-76 (Candid), 3 An-12 (Cub) and 28 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C).After the Ukrainian special operation, 4 completely destroyed planes can be seen: 3 Tu-95MS (Bear-H) and 1 An-12…
— AviVector (@avivector) June 3, 2025
A high-resolution satellite image of Dyagilevo Air Base from Planet Labs taken yesterday, which TWZ has reviewed, shows no obvious signs of damage to any aircraft there. It is worth noting that damage from shrapnel, which can be significant to relatively thin-skinned aircraft, would not be visible even in higher-resolution imagery.
Satellite images of
Dyagilevo Airbase as of June 2, 8:55 UTCThe airbase housed 3 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 5 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C), 14 Il-78M or Il-76MD (Midas or Candid) and 2 Su-30SM (Flanker-C).There was no serious damage after the Ukrainian special operation. In the right…
— AviVector (@avivector) June 2, 2025
Clear satellite imagery that might definitely show damage to aircraft at Ivanovo and Ukrainka has yet to emerge.
There are also unconfirmed reports today that the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, which carried out the drone attacks, has additional unreleased video footage showing two A-50s and multiple Tu-22Ms being struck at unspecified bases.
My frequent co-writer Michael Weiss also confirms the content of the video:
— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) June 3, 2025
As TWZ has noted in our past reporting on the Ukrainian drone attacks, any Russian losses of Tu-95, Tu-22M, to Tu-160 bombers, as well as A-50s, carry significant weight. None of these aircraft can be repaired and/or replaced quickly, if at all. Russian authorities have stated plans in the past to buy 50 ostensibly new-production Tu-160M2 aircraft with various upgrades. As of last year, however, only three appeared to have been built, none of which had entered operational service. TWZ has noted in the past that the Tu-160M2 plan could include refurbished existing jets and ones built using unfinished airframes.
Russia would not have had lose very many bombers, as well as A-50s, to have substantial impacts with regard to operations in Ukraine and well beyond. As we have previously written:
'Even taking one or two bombers out of operation will impact the Russian Aerospace Forces. The bomber triad has played a key role in launching the barrages of cruise missiles that have regularly struck targets across Ukraine.'
'At the same time, these aircraft are a integral part of Russia's nuclear deterrent. This makes them a matter of great prestige, but also a critical element in Russia's ability to launch nuclear or conventional airstrikes against targets outside of Ukraine. These aircraft are also regularly used for long-range patrols over Europe and Asia, also venturing as far as the coast of Alaska, and for irregular visits to strategic allies.'
'Wiping out a significant portion of one prong of the nuclear triad — the most flexible part of it — has an impact on the credibility of Russia's overall deterrent. It's also worth noting that Moscow has repeatedly said that attacks on strategic targets would constitute a red line for them, although, strategic bombers and critical locales have been attacked on numerous occasions in the past, too. None of these strikes have been as widespread and possibly successful as this operation though. Regardless, even if a handful of bombers met their demise, it's a blow to Russia's nuclear deterrent posture.'
Regardless of the full scale and scope the resulting damage, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian air bases far from the front lines has already had already clear propaganda and morale-boosting benefits. There is emerging evidence of second-order impacts in Russia, including disruptions due to the implementation of new protocols for inspecting trucks and other security measures, as well.
Russia has now started a truck phobia, massive traffic jams have gripped the Irkutsk region, every truck is being checkedSource:
— Oriannalyla
(@Lyla_lilas) June 2, 2025
А что случилось.По всей России фуры стоят…Может учения какие?
— Друг человека (@boris0630) June 3, 2025
As more and better satellite imagery continues to emerge, along with other verifiable visuals and other details, the full extent of Ukraine's mass drone attacks on Russian bases will come more and more into view.
Howard Altman contributed to this story.
Contact the author: joe@
