Latest news with #INDEC
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Argentina monthly inflation seen at five-year low in May
BUENOS AIRES, June 10 (Reuters) - Argentina's headline inflation likely slowed in May to its lowest monthly rate in five years, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday. Consumer prices rose 2% last month, according to the average and median estimates of 24 local and foreign analysts, returning to an inflation level the country has not reached since the economy was paralyzed by pandemic lockdowns in the first half of 2020. Inflation has fallen significantly since President Javier Milei took office in December 2023, coming close to 2% in January and February before hitting 3.7% and 2.8% in March and April respectively. A May rate at or below 2%, if confirmed by the national statistics agency on Thursday, would be the best monthly rate of Milei's government. "Although the inflation data for March and April showed a slight acceleration compared to the previous months, in May a new trend begins to become evident", said Julian Orue, economist at Fundacion Libertad y Progreso. In mid-April, Milei's government eased Argentina's exchange rate regime, which, according to analysts, helped ensure a downward trend in inflation. "The downward trend in inflation is holding steady, despite the normal bumps that come with an economic stabilization and normalization process," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of VDC consultancy. The analysts' projections for May inflation ranged between a minimum of 1.6% and a maximum of 2.5%. Argentina's statistics agency INDEC will release official data regarding May inflation on Thursday afternoon (1900 GMT).
Yahoo
02-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Javier Milei's Free Market Reforms Are Starting To Pay Off
Argentina's poverty rate fell sharply in the second half of 2024, according to official data released this week, marking a major milestone for President Javier Milei's sweeping economic reforms. According to the country's official statistics agency, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), the poverty rate fell to 38.1 percent between July 2024 and December 2024—down nearly 15 percentage points from the first half of the year. Household poverty also declined by 13.9 percentage points, hitting 28.6 percent. And extreme poverty was cut by more than half, falling from 18.1 percent to 8.2 percent. It's a major turnaround from the beginning of Milei's presidency. When he took office in December 2023, he inherited a poverty rate of 41.7 percent, which quickly surged to 53 percent as his administration launched a "shock therapy" program to end Argentina's economic misery. One of the biggest drivers behind the poverty decline is the sharp drop in inflation. Annual inflation, which reached 276.2 percent a year ago—one of the highest in the world—dropped to 66.9 percent last month. Monthly inflation has also dropped, from 25.5 percent in December to just 2.4 percent in March. "These figures reflect the failure of past policies, which plunged millions of Argentines into precarious conditions while promoting the idea of helping the poor, even as poverty continued to increase," Milei's office said in a statement following the release of the INDEC report. "The current administration has shown that the path of economic freedom and fiscal responsibility is the way to reduce poverty in the long term." In other words, Milei's bet on free market reforms is starting to pay off. It's worth remembering the situation he walked into. "Milei inherited a country suffering from more than 200% inflation in 2023, 40% poverty, a fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficit of 15% of GDP, a huge and growing public debt, a bankrupt central bank, and a shrinking economy," writes Ian Vásquez of the Cato Institute. In response, Milei promised a radical shift in Argentina's economic model. His government slashed government spending, eliminated price controls, devalued the peso, cut subsidies, suspended public works, and laid off thousands of government workers. The changes weren't popular, but they were necessary. And now, the numbers are catching up. The economy is growing again. Gross domestic product grew in the last two quarters. The gap between the black-market dollar and the official rate has narrowed. Rents have fallen and the housing supply has increased since rent control laws were scrapped. Meanwhile, investor interest in Argentina is beginning to return, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is in talks with Milei's government over a new program. The IMF projects a 5 percent growth for Argentina in 2025. Still, challenges remain. Despite the improvement, over 11 million Argentines are still living in poverty, with 2.5 million facing extreme poverty. And more than half of all children ages 14 and under in Argentina are poor. Milei has consistently said that his adjustment plan would have a "negative impact on the level of activity, employment, real wages, and the number of poor and indigent people," before it started to work. Things are finally starting to get better and at the right time. With midterm elections coming in October, Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza, has an opportunity to expand its influence. Right now, the party holds only a small share of congressional seats. But with half of the lower house and a third of the Senate up for grabs, the growing economic momentum could give Milei the support he needs to deepen and accelerate his reforms. The post Javier Milei's Free Market Reforms Are Starting To Pay Off appeared first on
Yahoo
02-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Javier Milei's Free Market Reforms Are Starting To Pay Off
Argentina's poverty rate fell sharply in the second half of 2024, according to official data released this week, marking a major milestone for President Javier Milei's sweeping economic reforms. According to the country's official statistics agency, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), the poverty rate fell to 38.1 percent between July 2024 and December 2024—down nearly 15 percentage points from the first half of the year. Household poverty also declined by 13.9 percentage points, hitting 28.6 percent. And extreme poverty was cut by more than half, falling from 18.1 percent to 8.2 percent. It's a major turnaround from the beginning of Milei's presidency. When he took office in December 2023, he inherited a poverty rate of 41.7 percent, which quickly surged to 53 percent as his administration launched a "shock therapy" program to end Argentina's economic misery. One of the biggest drivers behind the poverty decline is the sharp drop in inflation. Annual inflation, which reached 276.2 percent a year ago—one of the highest in the world—dropped to 66.9 percent last month. Monthly inflation has also dropped, from 25.5 percent in December to just 2.4 percent in March. "These figures reflect the failure of past policies, which plunged millions of Argentines into precarious conditions while promoting the idea of helping the poor, even as poverty continued to increase," Milei's office said in a statement following the release of the INDEC report. "The current administration has shown that the path of economic freedom and fiscal responsibility is the way to reduce poverty in the long term." In other words, Milei's bet on free market reforms is starting to pay off. It's worth remembering the situation he walked into. "Milei inherited a country suffering from more than 200% inflation in 2023, 40% poverty, a fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficit of 15% of GDP, a huge and growing public debt, a bankrupt central bank, and a shrinking economy," writes Ian Vásquez of the Cato Institute. In response, Milei promised a radical shift in Argentina's economic model. His government slashed government spending, eliminated price controls, devalued the peso, cut subsidies, suspended public works, and laid off thousands of government workers. The changes weren't popular, but they were necessary. And now, the numbers are catching up. The economy is growing again. Gross domestic product grew in the last two quarters. The gap between the black-market dollar and the official rate has narrowed. Rents have fallen and the housing supply has increased since rent control laws were scrapped. Meanwhile, investor interest in Argentina is beginning to return, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is in talks with Milei's government over a new program. The IMF projects a 5 percent growth for Argentina in 2025. Still, challenges remain. Despite the improvement, over 11 million Argentines are still living in poverty, with 2.5 million facing extreme poverty. And more than half of all children ages 14 and under in Argentina are poor. Milei has consistently said that his adjustment plan would have a "negative impact on the level of activity, employment, real wages, and the number of poor and indigent people," before it started to work. Things are finally starting to get better and at the right time. With midterm elections coming in October, Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza, has an opportunity to expand its influence. Right now, the party holds only a small share of congressional seats. But with half of the lower house and a third of the Senate up for grabs, the growing economic momentum could give Milei the support he needs to deepen and accelerate his reforms. The post Javier Milei's Free Market Reforms Are Starting To Pay Off appeared first on
Yahoo
01-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Argentina reports a drop in poverty under President Milei, but many say life is harder
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentina's poverty rate dropped to 38.1% in libertarian President Javier Milei 's first year in office, the nation's official statistics agency reported on Monday, a closely watched measure reflecting the government's progress wrestling down what had been among the world's highest inflation rates. The decline in poverty for the second half of 2024 — from July to December — marks an improvement from the 41.7% that Milei's left-wing populist predecessors delivered for the second half of 2023. Milei swept to office late that year with a mandate to reverse the country's economic decline brought about by years of reckless borrowing. 'These figures reflect the failure of past policies, which plunged millions of Argentines into precarious conditions,' Milei's office said as the government statistics agency, known as INDEC, released its report. 'The path of economic freedom and fiscal responsibility is the way to reduce poverty in the long term.' But economists warn that the figure fails to capture the reality of ordinary people struggling to cope with the most radical austerity program in Argentina's recent history. Milei's blizzard of brutal cuts have hit everything from soup kitchens and bus fares to apartment rent and healthcare, eroding people's purchasing power. 'There is a big gap between what the statistics say and what you feel on the streets,' said Tomás Raffo, an economist at Argentina's largest public sector workers union CTA. 'We suffered a very strong blow where a lot more people went into poverty and now some of them have come out. ... But those who were poor before all this have gotten even poorer.' In the first half of 2024 — the first six months of Milei's presidency — INDEC reported that Argentina's poverty rate had soared to 53%. On Monday, INDEC reported that the poverty rate for the preceding six months had slid by 14.8 percentage points to just over 38%, a knock-on effect of rapidly falling inflation. Annual inflation plummeted to 66.9% last month compared to 276.2% a year earlier, according to INDEC. 'Politically, this is a very important achievement for the government, especially in this year of midterm elections,' said Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Asesores Económicos, a consultancy in Buenos Aires, noting this marked the lowest poverty rate since the first half of 2022. 'It shows that what the government is doing is starting to work.' That bright picture can be difficult to make out on the streets of Buenos Aires, where a growing number of Argentines try to survive by mining dumpsters for sustenance and hawking their wares at traffic lights. This month the capital was shaken by violent clashes between police and protesters demanding higher pensions. 'I see a lot more people selling things and sleeping in the street,' said Lorena Jiménez, a 46-year-old selling stickers with two of her nine children on Monday. A former house cleaner who lost her job last year, she and her kids now sleep most nights on the street, using the $160 they receive each month — part of a recently increased government stipend to support impoverished children — to pay for occasional hotel stays. Questions over the rosy statistics have mounted in a country where past administrations were caught doctoring official data for political means. After a major scandal, INDEC underwent a yearslong overhaul before regaining credibility in 2016. 'To me, this low inflation and poverty, it's a lie,' said Viviana Suarez, a 48-year-old insurance agent in Buenos Aires. 'How does it make sense when you go to the supermarket and see the prices and realize you can't buy any food that's not on sale?" A growing number of experts have voiced concern that, while perfectly orthodox, INDEC's inflation measure has become misleading partly because its consumer price index is based on a basket of basic goods from 2004. The government applies the inflation numbers to calculate the poverty rate. 'It's very outdated and gives little weight to the things with prices that have recently risen the most," said Raffo, the economist with CTA. For instance, CTA researchers say, food accounts today for a smaller share of an average household's budget than it did two decades ago. The index does not take into account digital subscriptions and other key expenses that have changed over time. It also misses how critical private services like health care and education have become more expensive since Milei took office, and how residents are paying more for rent in a recently deregulated housing market, Raffo said. He added: 'INDEC is capturing very little of what is really happening in the economy.' ____ Follow AP's coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean at
The Independent
01-04-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Argentina reports a drop in poverty under President Milei, but many say life is harder
Argentina's poverty rate dropped to 38.1% in libertarian President Javier Milei 's first year in office, the nation's official statistics agency reported on Monday, a closely watched measure reflecting the government's progress wrestling down what had been among the world's highest inflation rates. The decline in poverty for the second half of 2024 — from July to December — marks an improvement from the 41.7% that Milei's left-wing populist predecessors delivered for the second half of 2023. Milei swept to office late that year with a mandate to reverse the country's economic decline brought about by years of reckless borrowing. 'These figures reflect the failure of past policies, which plunged millions of Argentines into precarious conditions,' Milei's office said as the government statistics agency, known as INDEC, released its report. 'The path of economic freedom and fiscal responsibility is the way to reduce poverty in the long term.' But economists warn that the figure fails to capture the reality of ordinary people struggling to cope with the most radical austerity program in Argentina's recent history. Milei's blizzard of brutal cuts have hit everything from soup kitchens and bus fares to apartment rent and healthcare, eroding people's purchasing power. 'There is a big gap between what the statistics say and what you feel on the streets,' said Tomás Raffo, an economist at Argentina's largest public sector workers union CTA. 'We suffered a very strong blow where a lot more people went into poverty and now some of them have come out. ... But those who were poor before all this have gotten even poorer.' In the first half of 2024 — the first six months of Milei's presidency — INDEC reported that Argentina's poverty rate had soared to 53%. On Monday, INDEC reported that the poverty rate for the preceding six months had slid by 14.8 percentage points to just over 38%, a knock-on effect of rapidly falling inflation. Annual inflation plummeted to 66.9% last month compared to 276.2% a year earlier, according to INDEC. 'Politically, this is a very important achievement for the government, especially in this year of midterm elections,' said Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Asesores Económicos, a consultancy in Buenos Aires, noting this marked the lowest poverty rate since the first half of 2022. 'It shows that what the government is doing is starting to work.' That bright picture can be difficult to make out on the streets of Buenos Aires, where a growing number of Argentines try to survive by mining dumpsters for sustenance and hawking their wares at traffic lights. This month the capital was shaken by violent clashes between police and protesters demanding higher pensions. 'I see a lot more people selling things and sleeping in the street,' said Lorena Jiménez, a 46-year-old selling stickers with two of her nine children on Monday. A former house cleaner who lost her job last year, she and her kids now sleep most nights on the street, using the $160 they receive each month — part of a recently increased government stipend to support impoverished children — to pay for occasional hotel stays. Questions over the rosy statistics have mounted in a country where past administrations were caught doctoring official data for political means. After a major scandal, INDEC underwent a yearslong overhaul before regaining credibility in 2016. 'To me, this low inflation and poverty, it's a lie,' said Viviana Suarez, a 48-year-old insurance agent in Buenos Aires. 'How does it make sense when you go to the supermarket and see the prices and realize you can't buy any food that's not on sale?" A growing number of experts have voiced concern that, while perfectly orthodox, INDEC's inflation measure has become misleading partly because its consumer price index is based on a basket of basic goods from 2004. The government applies the inflation numbers to calculate the poverty rate. 'It's very outdated and gives little weight to the things with prices that have recently risen the most," said Raffo, the economist with CTA. For instance, CTA researchers say, food accounts today for a smaller share of an average household's budget than it did two decades ago. The index does not take into account digital subscriptions and other key expenses that have changed over time. It also misses how critical private services like health care and education have become more expensive since Milei took office, and how residents are paying more for rent in a recently deregulated housing market, Raffo said. He added: 'INDEC is capturing very little of what is really happening in the economy.'
