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Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
South Asia's Rivals Are Weaponizing Water for Geopolitical Gain
India's recent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, alongside China's growing dominance over regional water resources and infrastructure, has heightened tensions in South Asia, one of the world's most water-stressed regions. Those geopolitical strains are exacerbated by the effects of climate change, which have altered weather patterns in an area that is home to nearly a quarter of the world's population. Most of those inhabitants depend heavily on rivers fed by the mountains of the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan system. Those ranges are collectively known as the world's 'Third Pole' for their vast frozen reserves of glaciers, which are second only to the Arctic and Antarctic. But their glaciers are vanishing, with downstream implications for the rivers they feed. A report released last month by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, or ICIMOD, showed that the region recorded its lowest snow persistence—the duration that snow remains on the ground—in 23 years, threatening water availability in major arteries like the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Earlier, ICIMOD also warned that up to 80 percent of the region's glaciers could disappear by the start of the next century, affecting the long-term stability of South Asia's water systems. The findings underscore the rising climate stress on a region already facing rapid glacial retreat, erratic weather patterns and recurrent floods. South Asia is a global climate hot spot, and the region's children may be the ones who will have to pay the price. Astaggering 347 million children under the age of 18 are already exposed to high or extremely high water scarcity in South Asia, the highest number among all regions in the world, according to a UNICEF report. To get more in-depth news and expert analysis on global affairs from WPR, sign up for our free Daily Review newsletter. As climate change and geopolitical tensions converge, experts warn that the region's fragile hydro-politics could be entering a dangerous new era. According to a recently published study, a total of 1,158 water conflicts, including domestic and international, occurred in transboundary river basins in Asia from 1948 to 2022. Among these, the Jordan and Tigris-Euphrates/Shatt Al-Arab River basins in West Asia had the highest number of conflicts, followed by South Asia's Indus River basin. The study, which looks at water resources as a trigger for and casualty of conflict, also noted a significant upward trend across the period studied, with a positive correlation between water stress and conflict. And as the recent tensions between India and Pakistan as well as broader trends in China's hydro-politics show, water is also becoming increasingly weaponized in the context of geopolitical rivalry. On April 22, a horrific terrorist attack in Pahalgam in India-controlled Kashmir killed 26 civilians, most of them male Hindu tourists. In addition to launching military strikes in response, the Indian government announced that it will be putting the Indus Waters Treaty, or IWT, in 'abeyance,' accusing Pakistan of failing to prevent cross-border terrorist attacks originating from its territory. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that 'India's water must serve India first,' while Islamabad warned that any move to restrict water flow would be treated as 'an act of war.' Tensions de-escalated after the nuclear-armed neighbors and bitter rivals reached a mutual understanding on May 10 to halt all military actions. Yet, the IWT—one of the rare examples of cooperation between India and Pakistan, even during past periods of open hostility and war—remains suspended. In the short term, this will not drastically affect Pakistan's water supply. India lacks sufficient storage capacity on the western Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers to cut off the flow of their waters immediately. However, New Delhi is reportedly actively exploring infrastructure projects that could reduce downstream flows over time. Such projects could have profound consequences. Pakistan depends on the Indus River system for nearly 80 percent of its agriculture. It also relies on upstream data provided by India to manage floods, forecast droughts and plan irrigation cycles. Without timely information on river flows and dam releases, Pakistan's ability to generate hydropower, ensure drinking water supplies and maintain food security could be severely compromised. The suspension of the IWT has also raised alarm bells about the status of other water-sharing agreements in South Asia. India has multiple bilateral treaties, including the Mahakali Treaty and Kosi River accord with Nepal, and the Teesta water-sharing deal with Bangladesh. While these arrangements differ in scope and legal architecture, many are politically sensitive and depend on goodwill rather than enforceable international norms. Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst, told World Politics Review that other neighboring states will likely see the suspension of the IWT through the prism of India's unique relationship with Pakistan. Still, he pointed to the precedent this could set as a source of at least some fear. 'If India is willing to back out of a World Bank-mediated treaty, something that's viewed as such a big success story,' he added, 'what could it then do when it comes to other treaties that are not seen through such a prestigious, high-stakes lens?' That fear looms especially large in Bangladesh, where tensions with India over water-sharing have been brewing for years. The Ganga Water Treaty, signed in 1996, is due for renewal in 2026. But relations between the two neighbors have soured since the ouster of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India in 2024 amid popular protests over her increasingly authoritarian rule. Water tensions are also rising in drought-prone Afghanistan, where the Taliban-led government has revived dam and canal construction projects on key rivers like the Helmand, Amu Darya, Harirud, Kabul and Kunar. These initiatives have drawn sharp criticism from downstream neighbors like Iran, Pakistan and Turkmenistan, which have accused Kabul of using water as a bargaining chip in other negotiations over energy, trade and security. With Afghanistan's water insecurity growing and diplomatic engagement with the Taliban regime still limited—even as climate change disrupts water resources in South and Central Asia—the risk of water disputes escalating into broader confrontations remains high, as was already seen in the 2023 border clashes between Afghanistan and Iran. Meanwhile, a far more powerful upstream player continues to shape South Asia's hydro-politics: China. Beijing has refused to join any regional water-sharing frameworks, while investing heavily in dam-building, hydropower and infrastructure projects across the region. As such, it has positioned itself as a key actor in the management of the Teesta River, which flows from India into Bangladesh and remains a source of vexation between New Delhi and Dhaka. China is also involved in several hydroelectric projects in Nepal, despite Indian opposition, as it jostles for influence in the region. Beijing, which enjoys longstanding military and economic ties with Islamabad, has also ramped up the construction of its 'flagship' Mohmand Dam in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of northwestern Pakistan, according to a report by SCMP. Though India is upstream from Pakistan on the Indus River, the river originates in Tibet, under Chinese control, sparking concerns of China using water as a geopolitical tool, something it has done in the past. For instance, after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, China blocked the Galwan River, an Indus tributary, causing water shortages in parts of India. Beijing's most ambitious project, however, lies on the Yarlung Zangbo, known downstream in India as the Brahmaputra River. Late last year, Beijing announced plans to construct the world's largest hydroelectric dam on the river. Once operational, the dam will give China unprecedented control over water flows into northeast India and Bangladesh, triggering fears about flash floods, droughts and even strategic manipulation of river flows in times of tension. In response, India has revived its own plans to construct a mega-dam on the Siang River, a major Brahmaputra tributary in Arunachal Pradesh that also feeds the Yarlung Zangbo. While framed as a defensive measure to counteract Chinese infrastructure, the race to dam Himalayan rivers carries enormous ecological risks. The region is prone to devastating earthquakes and landslides, and major dam failures could threaten millions of lives. As the effects of climate change intensify and political tensions deepen, the failure to strengthen regional institutions and modernize treaties could push already fragile arrangements past their breaking point. Water has long been a shared lifeline in South Asia. But unless it is protected, it may also become a fuse leading to conflict. Bansari Kamdar is an India-based journalist and researcher. Prior to this, she was the Europe, Middle East and Africa editor at Reuters, and she has also written for The Boston Globe, The Diplomat and Huffington Post, among other outlets. The post South Asia's Rivals Are Weaponizing Water for Geopolitical Gain appeared first on World Politics Review.
Nikkei Asia
5 days ago
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
Stolen futures: The Kashmir children caught up in India-Pakistan conflict
POONCH, Jammu and Kashmir -- Sanjeev Kumar still hears the explosions in his sleep. It was just past daybreak on May 7 when he made the decision to flee. All night, shelling by Pakistani forces had rattled the city of Poonch in India-controlled Kashmir, each blast shaking the walls of his home. He bundled his wife, sister and 13-year-old son, Vihaan, into their car and set off for Jammu, hoping to outrun the violence, which came after New Delhi launched military strikes against its neighbor in the wake of a terrorist attack in the region.
News18
19-05-2025
- Politics
- News18
Indus Waters Treaty In Abeyance: Why India Is Holding Back, For Now
Last Updated: Abeyance gives India flexibility without global backlash and keeps pressure on Pakistan without escalation The decades-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), once hailed as a model of water diplomacy between rivals, now sits in a state of deliberate abeyance, tangled in legal ambiguities, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and the shadow of cross-border terrorism. For India, the current moment represents both an opportunity to revisit a flawed treaty and a strategic dilemma—whether to push harder or hold back. Top government sources say India's decision to pause rather than break the treaty outright is not a retreat, but a calculated posture grounded in both legal prudence and international optics. Why The Treaty Is Still In Place At the heart of the IWT crisis lies a key structural flaw: the treaty provides no clear path for unilateral withdrawal or suspension. Article XII(4) of the agreement clearly states that the treaty shall remain in force 'until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose." This effectively means Pakistan cannot legally accuse India of a breach, since no formal revocation has occurred. As one senior official put it, 'It's a treaty without an exit ramp. That's by design—but it doesn't reflect the current reality of state-sponsored terrorism." India's Legal And Strategic Leverage India's position is further insulated by international legal instruments. In 2019, New Delhi filed a declaration with the International Court of Justice (ICJ), excluding disputes involving Commonwealth countries or matters affecting national security—blocking Pakistan's potential legal recourse at the global level. 'We are not tearing up the treaty, but we are signalling that terrorism has a cost—even in water-sharing," a senior official said. Pakistan's Geographic And Strategic Weakness Pakistan's vulnerability is geographic. Being a lower riparian state, it is heavily dependent on India-controlled rivers—particularly the Jhelum and Chenab flowing through Jammu & Kashmir. Despite past rhetoric, including 2008 threats to treat water diversion as an 'act of war," Islamabad has consistently relied on diplomacy, not force, revealing both its limitations and the deterrent value of India's economic and military edge. Moreover, the World Bank's role as a treaty facilitator is largely toothless. Its authority extends only to the appointment of neutral experts or arbitrators—whose rulings are advisory and non-binding, as seen in the long-stalled Kishanganga and Ratle dam disputes. Why India Is Holding Back—For Now Despite having a strong legal and strategic case, India has stopped short of declaring the treaty void, and that's deliberate. First, abeyance gives India flexibility without global backlash. Unilateral withdrawal could invite accusations of violating international norms or harming civilian access to water—especially under human rights frameworks. Second, the move keeps pressure on Pakistan without escalation. India's economic size and growing global alliances make a case for measured assertiveness over impulsive declarations. Third, it preserves India's image as a responsible regional power, especially at a time when it seeks global leadership roles—whether in the G20, BRICS, or UN platforms. What Lies Ahead The current IWT freeze reflects a broader trend in India's foreign policy: using restraint as leverage. For now, India is content sending the message that even water—a traditionally sacrosanct domain—is not beyond the consequences of terrorism. But should provocations escalate or talks stall indefinitely, India has left the door open to redefining the rules. The Indus may still flow, but the political current has undeniably changed.
Daily Mirror
14-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Mirror
Donald Trump target of thinly-veiled dig after his bold Pakistan ceasefire brag
President Donald Trump had gloated the US-mediated ceasefire between India and Pakistan last week came about in part because he had offered possible trade concessions Donald Trump's bold claims the ceasefire between India and Pakistan came about because he had offered possible trade concessions were exposed last night. Randhir Jaiswal, the spokesman for India's foreign ministry, took aim at the US President in a thinly-veiled dig, disputing Mr Trump's boast. He said there was, in fact, no conversation about trade between top leaders in New Delhi and Washington during their talks last week. Mr Trump, 78, had blown his own trumpet, telling reporters the conclusion was, in part, down to his negotiations. But Mr Jaiswal bluntly said: "The issue of trade didn't come up in any of these discussions." His comments at a press conference in New Delhi came after conversations were held between US Vice President JD Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in addition to other senior figures. He also denied Mr Trump's claims on a possible escalation involving a nuclear scenario between India and Pakistan. Mr Jaiswal added: "As you know, India has a firm stance that it will not give in to nuclear blackmail or allow cross-border terrorism to be conducted invoking it. In conversations with various countries, we also cautioned that their subscribing to such scenarios could hurt them in their own region." Mr Trump had said: "I said, 'come on, we're going to do a lot of trade with you guys. Let's stop it. Let's stop it. If you stop it, we'll do a trade. If you don't stop it, we're not going to do any trade'. And all of a sudden, they said, I think we're going to stop." Crediting trade leverage for influencing both the nations' decision, Mr Trump added: "For a lot of reasons, but trade is a big one." India's swift response casts shadow over Mr Trump's remarks. Regardless of their weight, there were concerns on Saturday - hours after the pact was reached - the ceasefire had been violated as explosions were heard in India-controlled Kashmir. Yet, this was something Mr Trump did not address as he spoke to journalists in his media briefing. India struck targets inside Pakistan on Wednesday in one of their most serious confrontations in decades. This sparked fears of an all-out nuclear war, which the Mirror reports would threaten to wipeout more than 125 million people worldwide. Speaking in his press conference, Mr Jaiswal added: "We have a longstanding national position that any issues related to the federally controlled union territory of Jammu and Kashmir must be addressed by India and Pakistan bilaterally. There has been no change to the stated policy."
New York Post
12-05-2025
- Business
- New York Post
Trump takes off for ‘historic' Mideast trip after string of foreign policy successes
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — President Trump took a victory lap at the White House Monday before jetting off on a three-country tour of the Middle East, where he's expected to try to drum up more investment in the US. Trump claimed credit for averting a nuclear war in the Indian subcontinent, forcing Ukraine and Russia into peace talks, brokering a trade breakthrough with China and winning the release of the last US citizen held hostage by Hamas. 6 President Trump rattled off a list of major international developments Monday ahead of his first extended foreign trip since retaking power. AFP via Getty Images Advertisement 'Now I'm going to depart on a historic visit,' Trump told reporters of his visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Untied Arab Emirates this week. A news-packed weekend began early Saturday, with the president announcing the US had helped India and Pakistan negotiate a cease-fire following four days of fighting precipitated by an April 22 Islamic terror attack that killed 26 at a resort in India-controlled Kashmir. 'We stopped a nuclear conflict,' Trump told reporters ahead of signing an order aimed at lowering US drug prices. 'It could have been a bad nuclear war. Millions of people could have been killed. So I'm very proud of that.' Advertisement Also Saturday, Trump's administration held trade talks for the first time with China in Switzerland, with both parties agreeing to lower their tariff rates by 115% for 90 days as they work out a permanent agreement — easing market worries after Trump's prior 145% rate brought shipping almost to a complete halt. Trump said China had agreed to fundamental trade reforms that will take time to formalize. 6 Trump said his team avoided a nuclear war between India and Pakistan and opened China to US trade. AP 'They've agreed to open China — fully open China,' the president claimed. 'It's going to take a while to paper it … And I think it's going to be fantastic for China. I think it's going to be fantastic for us. And I think it's going to be great for unification and peace.' Advertisement Trump said Beijing also 'agreed that they're going to stop' exporting fentanyl, which has killed nearly 300,000 Americans over the past four years — adding, 'They'll be rewarded by not having to pay, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs.' 6 Trump said he would be willing to attend a possible meeting Thursday in Turkey between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — which Trump had demanded take place. POOL/AFP/AFP via Getty Images Trump also touted progress between Russia and Ukraine — after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to potentially meet Thursday in Turkey with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump had publicly pressured Zelensky to attend, though it's not yet confirmed that Putin will show. The president said he might even reorder his Mideast trip to make a cameo at the talks. Advertisement 'I was very insistent that that meeting take place. I think good things can come out of that meeting … They're human souls, and they're being killed at levels that we haven't seen since the Second World War,' Trump said. 'If I thought it would be helpful — I don't know where I'm going to be at that particular point, I'll be someplace in the Middle East — but I would fly there, if I thought it would be helpful,' Trump mused. Trump is currently scheduled to fly from Qatar — which may be gifting him a $400 million luxury plane to use as Air Force One — to the UAE on Thursday. 6 Trump also noted that his envoy Steve Witkoff had secured the release of US Citizen Edan Alexnader from Hamas captivity. Getty Images 6 Trump made the remarks before leaving Washington for a three-country tour of the Middle East. AP Trump also celebrated the fact that the last living American held by Hamas, Edan Alexander, was released from the Gaza Strip and would be coming home — after US negotiators directly engaged with the terrorist group. 'Edan Alexander, an American citizen who, until recently, most thought was no longer living, thought was dead, is going to be released in about two hours,' Trump said. 'He's going to be released before the eyes of [special Middle East envoy] Steve Witkoff, who has done a fantastic job.' Trump's trip will begin in the scorching Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh, where he's expected to attend an investment conference on Tuesday followed by a meeting with Gulf State leaders on Wednesday. Advertisement 6 Trump will fly first to Saudi Arabia before stopping in Qatar and the UAE. REUTERS He's then set to fly to Qatar and the UAE to potentially broker more deals with foreign nations — with a possible pit stop in Turkey pending. The Middle East tour is the president's first major foreign travel of his second administration, mirroring the first big trip he took when he entered office in 2017. That journey lasted a week and included stops in Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, Italy, the Vatican, and Belgium.
