Latest news with #IndiaSpend
Scroll.in
29-05-2025
- Climate
- Scroll.in
Summer of weather disruptions: Early showers in May wreck crops, flood cities across India
In a year when India braced for blistering heat waves, May 2025 unleashed unprecedented rainfall activity, catching the country off guard with almost double, or 85.7% more, the rainfall than usual. In fact, central India has seen five times the usual rainfall this month (by May 27) and south India crossed the 2.5 times mark. The south-west monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than usual and the earliest onset since 2009. Most parts of the country had been reeling under heat waves in March and April, and the expectation was that it would get worse in May. In the event, most parts of the country did not see any significant or prolonged heat waves. Instead, there were widespread thunderstorms, even hailstorms, which brought down maximum temperatures and spared India a scorching May. However, the unseasonal downpours led to massive crop losses in states such as Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Telangana, Gujarat and elsewhere. Now, as the country gears up for Kharif sowing, will May rains affect or decrease the spell of southwest monsoon in any way? Director General of the India Meteorological Department M Mohapatra answered in the negative and told IndiaSpend, 'Long range, seasonal rainfall is not dependent on May rainfall. There is no 1:1 relationship.' The department has forecast an ' above normal ' monsoon season this year. In a press conference on Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department forecast that monsoon will be particularly above normal over southern and central India, normal over northwest India, and below normal over northeast India. The month of June in fact has a forecast of 8% above normal rainfall (both forecasts with a margin of error of 4%). But there are bound to be variations. Even last year, while India's monsoon ended on a 6% surplus, there were large variations within regions and in between months. Within the monsoon months, there were variations in rainfall received, oscillating between deficit rain and surplus. Parts of Northeast India, Punjab, Bihar had seen deficient rainfall while Gujarat and Rajasthan saw surplus rainfall. Heatwave to thunderstorms At the beginning of May, the India Meteorological Department had forecast hotter days and nights, and above-normal heatwave days in northwest, central and east India this month. While it had also forecast rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (or 9% more) of the 'long period average', so far, India's monthly rainfall stands at 85.7% above normal instead (Data up to May 27). It started in the very first week of May when many parts of the country started seeing widespread rainfall. There was a prolonged wet spell with moderate to severe thunderstorms, squally or gusty winds over northwest, central and eastern India. Heavy rainfall was recorded in parts of east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kachchh on May 7 alone. That week had registered 35% more rainfall than was expected at this time of the year. The wet spell did not stop there. In the second week also, India saw 20% more rain than usual, so much so that there was no heat wave recorded. An important feature of this May's weather has been the presence of gusty winds, hailstorms, thunderstorms with lightning, and dust storms. On ground, the unexpected arrival of these weather events led to chaos and disruption. On May 20, Bengaluru city was lashed by heavy rain that killed three. Similar heavy rains were reported in Goa, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and many other regions of India. In Maharashtra, there has been widespread rainfall in Marathwada, Vidarbha and Konkan areas that are typically heatwave prone. On May 2, Delhi recorded its second highest 24-hour May rainfall since 1901, killing four. Delhi also reported dust storms on May 21, and on May 25, downpour led to a portion of the canopy to collapse at the airport. May 7 was recorded as Mumbai's second-wettest day in a decade, and the city is seeing its wettest May ever this year. Together, these extreme weather events have led to flight and train cancellations, traffic chaos, school closures, office disruptions and general disruption of normal life. These disruptions hit daily wage workers, small vendors, and local businesses the hardest, with many struggling to recover from days of halted operations and damaged infrastructure. The extent and severity of the weather activity is reflected in the data. Central India has recorded five times its usual May rainfall (402% above normal) and south India has recorded more than two-and-a-half times the typical amount (165% above normal). Even Northwest India has recorded 24.7% more rainfall. So, while March and April rainfall stood at the deficient mark, May rainfall so far stands at a surplus of 85.7% (all figures up to May 27). Together, the pre-monsoon season, which is March 1 to May 31 of a given year, now stands at a 28.3% surplus. Parts of northeast India, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh have however seen deficient pre-monsoon rainfall this year (March to May). Meanwhile, the Saurashtra and Kachchh region has seen 17 times the normal rainfall; the Gujarat subdivision has seen nearly 12 times; Konkan and Goa 19 times, and Vidarbha four times the normal rainfall this pre-monsoon season. Raghu Murtugudde, retired professor at the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay and emeritus professor, University of Maryland, said that the current thunderstorms (in May) are mostly due to the winds over the Arabian Sea meeting the winds from the Bay of Bengal, which is happening over peninsular and eastern India. 'That is firing up some rainfall events. Yes, it's unusual for a pre-monsoon period. But we have had unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific since 2023,' he said. M Mohapatra, the director general of IMD, called the May rainfall as 'not such a regular occurrence'. 'Frequency of western disturbances has been higher this year. Consecutive WDs have brought all this rainfall activity, thunderstorms, hailstorm, fall in temperature etc. The more southern latitude echoes of these WDs also help incursion of moisture from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. So that has caused this type of activity. It is a big country, there cannot be only one factor,' said Mohapatra. When asked about the accuracy of IMD's forecast for May, Mohapatra noted that the IMD had forecast above normal rainfall activity for the month of May. 'We gave spatial map which showed most parts of India to have above normal rainfall. Yes, we had forecast heatwaves, but that did not occur much.' In a press conference on Tuesday, Mohapatra stated that the month of May saw five to seven western disturbances develop, become active and extend up to Central India. This was the primary reason behind thunderstorms in many parts of India, which in turn brought down temperatures. Farmers hit The southwest monsoon – when it is on time – is the lifeblood of Indian agriculture, supporting over 50% of the country's farmland and contributing significantly to the economy through the Kharif crop season. This year, unseasonal rains in May have caused widespread crop losses in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat and many other regions. 'It would usually not rain so much in May. We had a good crop this time around. But the weather got adverse. My banana trees already had fruits on them and they could not bear the impact of thunder and rain. It is all in God's hands now,' said farmer Govind Kushwaha from Kushinagar district of Uttar Pradesh. Kushwaha had planted bananas on one acre of land. Half his trees have fallen due to the unseasonal rain on May 22. His fruits are now impacted – the harvest will be less than expected, and quality of what remains will be compromised due to exposure to the rains, resulting in poor demand or low prices in the market. Mango farmers are also badly hit in Uttar Pradesh. Awadh Mango Producers Bagwani Samiti Malihabad general secretary Upendra Singh said that farmers who had protected their mangoes using a technique called bagging (putting a net mesh over the fruit) managed to save their crop, but those who had not taken that precaution are facing heavy losses. 'This kind of weather is not good for horticulturalists. Thunderstorms have led to large scale losses in Lucknow, Meerut, Saharanpur, Aligarh, Jhansi and many parts of Western UP. These mangoes that have prematurely fallen have been damaged and will find no takers,' said Singh. Western disturbances Owing to India's sheer size, the unusual rainfall activity in May cannot be attributed to one weather phenomenon alone. Multiple meteorological factors such as western disturbances, upper air cyclonic circulations, troughs and deep depressions, interaction of winds from the west and east are all contributing factors. Western disturbances are storms that predominantly affect North India and Pakistan during winters. This year, these storms picked up from late January onwards. Western disturbances travel across the year but in different latitudes. They travel in lower latitudes during winters bringing significant amounts of rain and snow over North India. Meanwhile, in summers, these weather systems tend to travel in higher latitudes, confining snow and rainfall activities to the higher reaches of the region, according to research put together by Delhi-based think-tank Climate Trends. However, climate change might be changing the very nature of these Western disturbances. For example, Western disturbances dumped a lot of rainfall over western Himalayas in April. KJ Ramesh, Former Director General of Meteorology, IMD had said in April, 'Global warming has led to rapid warming of the Arabian Sea, which then emits more moisture northwards. Now, when the amplitude of Western Disturbances extends up to the North Arabian Sea, more moisture is fed into the system, resulting in intense weather activity over the hills.' Scientists have warned of an increasingly erratic trend in Western Disturbances amid global warming. AP Dimri, Director, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, said that increasing heat stress has also altered characteristics of Western Disturbances. 'Growing evidence shows that Western Disturbances are impacting weather outside the winter season, leading to extreme precipitation events. There is no doubt that increasing heat stress is the basis of everything, as it is generating more energy and at the same time pushing moisture upwards,' said Dimri. These shifting weather patterns align with broader climate change trends, where rising global temperatures are intensifying extreme weather events, from unseasonal rains to altered storm cycles, posing new challenges for India's climate resilience.
Scroll.in
15-05-2025
- Health
- Scroll.in
There are no ‘mystery diseases', only healthcare gaps and delayed prognosis
Seventeen people in Kachchh, who developed fever and respiratory distress towards the end of August 2024, died in quick succession between September 3 and 9, prompting authorities to rush teams to the affected area – villages Bekhada, Sanhrovand, Medhivandh and Morgar in Lakhpat taluka, and Bharavandh and Valavari in Abdasa taluka. 'Door-to-door visits to every household helped to identify others who were sick, and they were all started on symptomatic treatment,' Jayesh Katira, deputy director, epidemic in Gujarat's health department, told IndiaSpend. But the authorities struggled to name the disease, prompting the media to report the outbreak as a 'mystery' disease (see here and here). 'When the causative organism or agent of a disease, and its mode of transmission from one person to another hasn't been identified, lay people and the media tend to label it 'mysterious',' said Anil Kumar, principal advisor, National Centre for Disease Control, and president, Indian Association of Epidemiologists. Back in Kachchh, samples drawn from the patients were sent for testing to the National Institute of Virology in Pune. 'When we face an unknown disease, we test for diseases that have recently been seen in different parts of the country as well as for seasonal diseases that may have just emerged,' Katira explained. Tests for the Nipah virus, the Hantavirus, Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever and other viral infections occurring in humans all came negative, and so did the zoonotic link. Essentially, the samples were also tested for diseases originating in cattle. However, 'microbiology tests showed that a single patient was infected by various types of bacteria, which we believe worsened a simple viral infection,' added Katira. So, 'we attributed the deaths to an airborne respiratory infection.' Daily surveillance and treatment helped contain the outbreak, with two more people succumbing in the ensuing week. The Kachchh experience suggests that an outbreak of disease, no matter how virulent, can be brought under control with the right intervention. 'Epidemiologists don't call diseases 'mysterious', because the cause of occurrence and channel of transmission can always be identified with careful investigation,' said Kumar. Sometimes, he agreed, 'the environment can cause the causative agent to undergo some change, in which case the investigation can take time'. The term 'mysterious' suggests that the disease cannot be figured out or controlled, which is not the case. Kumar recommends the scientific terminology: 'an illness of unknown aetiology'. Pathogen combinations The combination of a virus and bacteria made it more challenging to identify the cause of disease in Kachchh. A mix of pathogens was also confirmed to be behind the outbreak of disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2024. In early December, the World Health Organization had reported the outbreak of disease in Panzi, a remote region in the country's Kwango province. More than 400 people had taken ill, with fever, headache, cough, weakness and a runny nose. Thirty-one patients had succumbed to the disease, which at the time, was considered 'undiagnosed'. A WHO update on December 27 said that laboratory tests suggested 'a combination of common and seasonal viral respiratory infections and falciparum malaria, compounded by acute malnutrition' had caused the severe infections and deaths, 'disproportionally affecting children under five years of age'. Kumar explained that 'it is possible that combinations of various bacteria/viruses and agent hosts and environmental factors lead to atypical presentation cases and outbreaks'. However, he emphasised that 'a careful high quality epidemiological investigation using advanced tools and technology can determine the channel of transmission and precipitating factors leading to the outbreak.' Comorbidities increase vulnerability According to the WHO, underlying malnutrition is believed to have compounded the severity of illness in Panzi, the Democratic Republic of Congo. In Kachchh, Katira pointed out that the affected area is mostly inhabited by a cattle-rearing community. 'Due to the inclement weather, they would have faced some hardship, and may also have skipped meals, due to which their immunity may have been compromised.' Of the 17 deaths in Kachchh, at least two occurred due to myocardial infarction (or heart attack) and one person also had cancer, Katira said. Essentially, 'the presence of non-communicable diseases also lowers immunity.' In Chhattisgarh's Sukma district, where seven deaths were reported to have occurred due to an 'unknown' disease in October 2024, the chief medical & health officer Kapil Dev Kashyap clarified that the deceased had suffered from severe diarrhoea. There too, a couple of the fatalities were elderly and had comorbidities (diabetes and hypertension). Rainfall effect Rainfall prior to the outbreak of disease was a common factor in Kachchh, Sukma and in the Congo. In the early days of September 2024, Kachchh saw heavy rainfall events, a factor that Katira associates with the easier transmission of viruses. While viruses are always present in the environment, Katira explained, high humidity and rain are ripe conditions for their spread. In fact, in Panzi, the high number of cases of fever and other symptoms was not considered an aberration in view of the onset of the rainy season. What stood out was the high number of fatalities. The residents of Chitalnar village in Sukma had developed severe diarrhoea after inclement weather. 'The people drink raw river water, and the area had seen heavy rainfall prior to the loss of life,' Kashyap told IndiaSpend. 'They had contracted a water-borne infection.' Poor infrastructure in rural India Kachchh and other parts of west Gujarat saw 75% more than normal rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season, a factor that could predispose the area to disease outbreaks. Heavy rain creates particularly challenging conditions for those living in kuccha homes. Heavy rain also cuts off access to health services for many people. 'People were cut off, making early diagnosis and treatment difficult,' Katira told IndiaSpend, of residents of the affected villages. Liaqat Ali, a member of the panchayat of Lakhpat, a village located about 45 km away from the affected area, told IndiaSpend that their approach roads to the nearest community health centre in Dayapar, which services the area, would have been inundated. 'Roads in this area are very bad at the best of times; during heavy rainfall the situation deteriorates,' said Ali. Ali also pointed out that the community health centre was understaffed, with just three of seven posts filled, and that conditions that should have been manageable in it – such as a pregnancy with some complications – were referred out. 'Provisioning health services in rural India is a challenge,' said Kashyap, speaking in the context of Sukma district, where he is posted. 'We have 20-30 villages where we have no health workers, we have been unable to identify the right people to employ and train.' Health workers are the most basic rung in the public health infrastructure, followed by sub-centres, primary health centres and community health centres. India had 167,275 sub-centres, 26,636 primary health centres and 6,155 community health centres, as of June 2024. In recognition of the 'time to care', or the time taken to reach a care centre, the government has mandated that every habitation in a challenging terrain should have a sub-centre within a 30-minute walk. However, the skills of the staff also need to be addressed. When 38 people from related families fell sick in village Badhal, in Rajouri district, Jammu & Kashmir, in early December 2024, they sought health services but still, 17 succumbed over the next six weeks – once again, supposedly of a 'mystery' disease. While the sickness started after a marriage in the family, the sarpanch of Badhal Mohammed Farooq told IndiaSpend that he didn't attribute the sickness nor the deaths to anything consumed at the event because 'neighbours and others who attended the marriage should have fallen sick too'. News reports cited cadmium toxicity as the reason for the sickness and deaths. IndiaSpend reached out to the chief medical & health officer of Rajouri, Manohar Lal Rana, the state surveillance officer for Jammu Division Harjeet Rai, and the senior superintendent of police, Rajouri, Gaurav Sikarwar, to understand how such toxicity might have developed, what sort of exposure might the community have had, and over how much time would the disease have developed. They declined to comment, saying the matter was still under investigation. Teams from many reputed hospitals across the country have visited the area to investigate the cause of disease. A source in the know, who did not want to be named as he was not authorised to speak to the media, made this interesting statement: 'Now if people in the affected area develop the same symptoms, no one will die.' The source indicated that 'when the first few people fell sick, the caregivers were clueless. They had never seen anything like it so they had no precedent to follow.' 'It is only after losing so many victims and having so many expert medical teams visit the area and share their opinion, that the local health staff would be able to treat a patient with similar symptoms,' said the source. Essentially, health professionals in basic health centres lack the experience to treat many diseases. Low acceptance of modern medicine Sometimes, patients' socio-cultural beliefs and lack of awareness pose obstacles to their timely treatment. Chitalnar, in Sukma, lies about 4 km away from a sub-centre, and about 10 km away from the nearest doctor stationed in the primary health centre in Pushpal. But when its residents fell sick, they first visited faith healers, according to Kashyap. 'During that time, their condition worsened, they developed dehydration.' After word got out, the authorities quickly created a mini hospital in a room in the village, where many of the sick were treated, and they also distributed oral rehydration solutions. However, the delay in accessing health services proved fatal for a few of those who had first fallen sick. Kashyap said a couple of the deaths had occurred in the district hospital, two had occurred in transit when the patients were being taken to the hospital, and a couple of patients had died at home. A similar situation arose in Udaipur district's Kotra block, where 17 children were reported to have died of a mystery disease over 30 days in October 2024. Kotra is predominantly populated by tribal people, who live in far-flung scattered villages. Ghata, one of the affected villages, has a doctor but people delayed seeking medical assistance for their children, panchayat member Lasma Ram told IndiaSpend. Lasma Ram attributed the deaths to 'seasonal diseases' and 'mosquito bites'. After word got out about the deaths, the investigating team constituted by the district health authority conducted door-to-door health screening and found several confirmed cases of malaria. Possibly, the children who died may also have succumbed to malaria. 'The health department had no medical reports or other documents to rely on, and so could not confirm the cause of mortality,' Udaipur district's chief medical and health officer Ashok Aditya told IndiaSpend. No disease is too complicated Confirming the cause of mortality is tricky sometimes. Still, experts caution against mislabelling outbreaks. 'We must steer clear of labelling any diseases as 'mysterious' or too complicated to explain to the public,' Jayaprakash Muliyil, epidemiologist and consultant, Department of GI Sciences, Christian Medical College, Vellore, told IndiaSpend. 'There is always a cause of disease, and India has sufficient trained epidemiologists to identify diseases.' Muliyil stressed the need to share scientific information with people 'in the interests of public health, even if it means informing people that the diagnosis of a disease is still a work in progress'. He also noted that 'there is a tendency to mask diseases to suppress information, or under-report deaths, sometimes for political reasons, which is counter-productive to public health'. Suppressing information only enhances rumours and gives rise to anxiety. Lapses in public health communication stood out quite starkly during the Covid-19 pandemic, the lessons behind those lapses have yet to be fully assimilated in the public health response to disease outbreaks, said Abhay Shukla, national co-convenor, People's Health Movement. Citing the 5 Ts of public health communication – Transparency, Trust, Timeliness, Truthfulness and Two-way exchange – Shukla explained that in about 10% of outbreaks, the cause may initially not be clear at local level and remains so for some time. But even then, 'whatever is known should be conveyed to the people'. 'Even letting people know the status of the investigation is helpful, the communication lines must be kept open,' said Shukla. Trust is trickier because it isn't built in a day. Trust in health systems is an outcome of successive good experiences with a health service point. However, it is a reflection of the gaps in health services – especially in remote regions – that people sometimes don't sufficiently trust the health system to accept special measures during emergencies, said Shukla. 'People aren't passive objects, they must be made partners in the control of outbreaks. But this requires building trust in the system and responding actively to people's queries.' 'Messaging must be timely and regular,' added Shukla. 'Silences generate rumours and negative emotions. The messaging must also be realistic, and based on the actual ground situation, and create channels for people to clarify their doubts.' Back in Badhal, everyone knows that high-level teams from various big institutions have investigated the deaths. But the sarpanch Farooq lamented, 'we still don't know the cause, and so, we remain fearful.' 'People no longer celebrate events together,' said Farooq. 'Nor do they want to eat or drink anything in each other's homes. Everyone thinks their family could suffer the same fate. If you get to know [the cause of the disease], please let us know too.'
Scroll.in
09-05-2025
- Business
- Scroll.in
India's census delay is denying millions subsidised foodgrains
The Census is now four years overdue, and the budget for the exercise has been slashed indicating further delays. This is even as millions of Indians are left without access to subsidised foodgrain, pushing them to the brink of food insecurity. Evidence shows that entitlements under the Public Distribution System have prevented about 1.8 million children from being stunted. Yet, the government now provides subsidised foodgrain under the National Food Security Act to 806 million people, lower by 8.1 million than even its own estimate. Under the National Food Security Act, 75% of the rural population and up to 50% of urban population receive rations. When asked whether millions of people were being left out, the government told Parliament that any revision in coverage 'shall be possible only after the relevant data of [the] next population Census is published'. Despite the extensive coverage, between 2021-'23 there was a prevalence of undernourishment in 14% of the population or 194 million people in India, according to the The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2024 report. An October 2024 analysis by economist Reetika Khera said that in spite of the improvement in coverage, the Union government was falling short of the coverage mandated by the National Food Security Act. On April 30, the government announced that it would enumerate caste during the population Census, but did not say when it would be conducted. The earliest the decennial population Census–based on which various welfare entitlements and surveys are estimated – is expected to be held in 2026, according to news reports. This would be five years after the expected timeline for publication. IndiaSpend had reported that in 1881, the colonial administration conducted the first synchronous census, in which work began on the same date across the country, a practice which then continued every 10 years, until the Covid-19 pandemic. But, based on the latest government response in parliament, the Census has not been declared, making India one of the few countries to not conduct a population Census following pandemic-related disruptions. IndiaSpend had reported that nearly 100 million people are estimated to be excluded from the public distribution system. According to the projections of the National Commission on Population, a little over 920 million persons would have to be covered in 2025 for urban and rural areas compared to around 800 million based on the 2011 population census, said economist Jean Drèze. 'Thus, more than 120 million may be regarded as unfairly excluded due to the Census delay.' Undernourishment despite PDS coverage Presently, 806 million people are covered under the National Food Security Act delivered through the public distribution system for which more than Rs 8,700 crore was released to states in 2023-'24. The public distribution system is operated jointly by state and Union governments and is a vital social programme for food economy and security. The National Food Security Act states that eligible households have to be determined based on the latest available Census. Although there is extensive free grain distribution, which is required for many households, there is still a problem of undernutrition and malnourishment, said development economist Dipa Sinha. Also, there are a large number of people who do not get PDS, she added. 'The additional numbers could be additional members in households who already have a card, and households which do not have a card at all. Amount of grain received depends on the number of members listed,' said Sinha. 'The government is not using population projection data, but literally interpreting the NFSA provision to consider only Census 2011 population which is now old data.' From January 2024, the government decided to extend the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana for five years and announced that the National Food Security Act households – poorest of the poor (Antyodaya Anna Yojana or AAY) and Priority households – would receive free food grains instead of subsided. But this effectively reduces the quantity available to priority households in the public distribution system by half, IndiaSpend had reported in December 2023. The government has allocated Rs 2.03 lakh crore for 2025, 1% lower than last year's budget allocation but 3% more than the revised estimate. But in April, a World Bank analysis said that extreme poverty (living on less than $2.15 per day) fell from 16.2% in 2011-'12 to 2.3% in 2022-'23, during which time 171 million people were lifted out of poverty. The five most populous states – Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh – accounted for 65% of India's extreme poor in 2011-'12 and contributed to two-thirds of the overall decline in extreme poverty by 2022-'23, it said. Given the persistence of poverty at the time of identification, these states also account for more than half the public distribution system beneficiaries. But the World Bank analysis, which uses household consumption expenditure surveys from 2011 and 2022, cautions that 'sampling and data limitations suggest that consumption inequality may be underestimated'. Following the release of the analysis, the Union government's April 2025 press release stated that there was 'remarkable progress in poverty reduction over the past decade', and the rise in employment, especially among women, and the reduction in multidimensional poverty point to broader improvements in living standards. In addition to the decennial census, six critical government datasets are delayed, and nine Union ministries have not released their annual reports – some of them for several years, IndiaSpend had reported in December 2024. 'Previously, in 2020, it was estimated 100 million people were left out due to delayed Census, which has increased to over 120 million now. There is also no clarity on the urban-rural proportion considering in the last decade we have seen demonetisation and the pandemic which has impacted migration patterns etc.,' said Sinha. '....All other surveys depend on population Census for its sampling.' The budget for the Census, Survey and Statistics/Registrar General of India was slashed by more than 50% in 2025 indicating that the government did not intend to begin the census this year. 'The PDS is still very important for the purpose of protecting everyone from hunger and insecurity,' said Drèze. 'However, it is only one of a range of measures that are required to ensure good nutrition.' Avoiding undernourishment also requires clean water, health care, sanitation facilities, childcare services and related amenities, not to forget purchasing power and action against gender inequality. Food entitlements and malnutrition A 2024 study estimates that public distribution system expansions from the National Food Security Act prevented approximately 1.8 million children under the age of five from being stunted. India's performance in the Global Hunger Index has been concerning over the years. The index – which calculates the score using undernourishment, child stunting, child wasting, and child mortality – ranked India 105 out of 127 countries in 2024 better than 111 of 125 countries in 2023. The Union government has repeatedly raised concerns about the 'flawed measures' used to ascertain hunger in the report which have led to India's low ranking. (You can find the government's response in parliament on the hunger index from different years here, here and here.) The 2024 paper by researchers Aditya Shrinivas, Kathy Baylis, Benjamin Crost showed that public distribution system transfers through extended coverage of the National Food Security Act also improved diversity of diets and incomes. 'The magnitude of the increase in wage earnings was more than the amount of the transfer itself, and may partly explain the large effects of food transfers on stunting in our context,' it said. In the absence of a nationally representative consumption survey between 2010 and 2022, the study used panel data from eight states – the best available data for evaluating the National Food Security Act – with monthly consumption data spanning three years before and two years after NFSA, said Shrinivas, Assistant Professor of Economics at Indian Institute of Management Bangalore and lead author of the study. 'I find that when more PDS is given at a lower price, despite it being restricted mostly to rice and wheat, the money that households save is redirected to consume more food, particularly animal protein and improving dietary diversity.' Despite the government's One Nation One Ration Card initiative to make interstate ration access particularly for migrants easier, it has not seen enough uptick except in Delhi, IndiaSpend had reported in July 2023. Instead of having urban and rural quotas for inclusion, there could be a universalisation with some exclusion criteria, feels Sinha. 'This removes the rich and provides food security to the rest, which is easier than identifying poor households that need to be included. This helps in urban areas particularly where there is a transitory population that may not have documents to access PDS despite being long time residents.' IndiaSpend has written to the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution and Registrar General & Census Commissioner of India on the impact of the delay, the estimate of PDS exclusion, and the timeline for the announcement and publication of the population Census. We will update the story when we receive a response. Food security effects The fifth National Family Health Survey conducted during 2019-'21 showed that more than one in three children under age five were stunted. This means, millions of children who would otherwise have received access to foodgrain if the Census was conducted are now left without food security, potentially leading to lifelong adverse outcomes. 'Stunting [where a child is short for his/her age] is a proxy for overall cognitive and physical underdevelopment,' according to a September 2017 report by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, as IndiaSpend reported in January 2018. 'Stunted children will be less healthy and productive for the rest of their lives, and countries with high rates of stunting will be less prosperous.' Adults who were stunted at age two spent nearly one year less in school than non-stunted individuals, according to this study conducted by University of Atlanta in 2010, as IndiaSpend reported in July 2016. Similarly, a study of Guatemalan adults found that those stunted as children had less schooling, lower test performances, lower household per capita expenditure and a greater likelihood of being poor. For women, stunting in early life was associated with a lower age at first birth and more pregnancies and children, according to this 2008 World Bank study. A 1% loss in adult height due to childhood stunting is associated with a 1.4% loss in economic productivity, according to World Bank estimates. Stunted children earn 20% less as adults compared to non-stunted individuals, we had reported. Further, experts say that early childhood malnutrition increases the risk of developing non-communicable diseases such as hypertension, diabetes and heart disease in adult life, as IndiaSpend reported in October 2019.
Scroll.in
08-05-2025
- Health
- Scroll.in
Rising humidity is dangerous and it's making India's hot summers worse
On April 30, Mumbai was not having an unusually hot day at 33.9 degrees celsius if we only go by the mercury. But with 69% humidity, the impact felt on the human body was as good as 46 degrees. And this wasn't even the hottest day of the season. In comparison, the ' felt temperature ' in Rajasthan's Barmer with the maximum temperature of 46.8 degrees celsius but 9% humidity (April 30, 5.30 pm) was a lower 43.6 degrees celsius. As India grows warmer, it is also getting more humid, particularly on the coasts and the North East region which historically have higher humidity as compared to the plains. It is therefore essential to also monitor and study the impact of humidity on heat outcomes and health for hundreds of millions of Indians. New research shows that the combined effect of temperature higher than 32 degrees and humidity beyond 60% is hazardous for the human body, especially among outdoor workers with sustained exposure. Many stations in Konkan, Goa, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Odisha, West Bengal are surpassing this limit on the daily in summer. What's more is that the research warns that at temperatures above 32 degrees celsius, each 10% increase in relative humidity resulted in a 22% increase in physiological strain on participants. Humid heat inhibits the body's ability to cool down through its natural mechanism of sweating. And humidity has increased across India at the rate of 0.79% per decade during the period of 1969 to 2012. 'Humidity is an almost forgotten factor when it comes to Indian settings. Everybody is talking about heat,' said Vidhya Venugopal, faculty of public health at Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research, Chennai. 'The kind of heat one experiences in Rajasthan is very different from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu. There are differences even within a state. How your body reacts to 20% humidity is different from 60% humidity.' 'When you sweat so much, there is cellular dehydration and electrolyte imbalance. We must pay attention to the humidity factor in our approach to extreme heat,' said Venugopal, whose research area is extreme heat and health. High humidity levels coinciding with high temperatures are likely to create lethal weather conditions and imperil the lives of millions across large parts of the subcontinent, as IndiaSpend reported in August 2017, based on research published in the scientific journal Science Advances. Climate change will make such conditions more frequent as the 21st century comes to a close. IndiaSpend wrote to the Union Ministry of Health on what steps it is taking to issue advisories to people and various stakeholders to protect from or mitigate the impact of humid heat. We will update this story when we receive a response. Perspiration nation As has been the trend for a few years now, warmer temperatures set over India as early as February this year, obscuring the spring. The India Meteorological Department has been issuing heatwave alerts right from March. The IMD measures heat throughout the day for hundreds of weather stations which is marked by the day's maximum temperature. The same is done for minimum temperature at the end of every night. Each weather station has a 'normal', and the departure from this normal shows how much hotter or cooler it is than usual. All weather stations also record relative humidity , which is the measure of how much water vapour is contained in the air as compared to how much it can hold. This is expressed in percentage. However, when issuing information on extreme heat or record-breaking heat, only temperatures are taken into consideration. The threshold for declaration of a heatwave is also dependent on the same, but there are lower thresholds for coastal locations as compared to the plains. Due to high humidity, there might be a reason to re-draft these guidelines. In coastal areas, a heatwave is declared if the temperature crosses 37 degrees celsius for two consecutive days in at least two stations. This threshold is 45 degrees celsius for a station in the plains. However, if one considers a maximum temperature of 36 degrees celsius, just one degree lower than the criteria, and factor in 60% humidity, the 'felt temperature' or 'heat index' as per this calculator is 48.1 degrees, higher than the 'mark' for a severe heatwave. In other words, the human body will experience thermal discomfort high enough to be categorised into a 'severe heat wave' and yet, the station will not even record a 'heatwave'. (It must be noted that relative humidity varies as per the time of the day, location and other factors whereas maximum temperature is one value at one time of the day). Declaration of a heatwave means that various stakeholders from the Union ministries to the concerned local authorities can take measures to prepare for extreme heat outcomes. This includes taking care of those most vulnerable to heat (infants, elderly, people with chronic diseases), issuing alerts and advisories to people. In case of a red alert, there are chances of a heat stroke and extreme care is needed for the most vulnerable. Our survival depends on our bodies staying at a consistent temperature. Normally, our core temperature – from the top of the head to mid-chest, encompassing the brain, lungs and chest – is regulated at 37 degrees celsius, and our skin at 35 degrees celsius. Sweating helps us shed excess heat – sweat beads cool the skin, and evaporation of sweat gets rid of heat, restoring the equilibrium. This process of thermoregulation occurs efficiently only when ambient air is favourable for us. Air can hold a limited quantity of water until it saturates. In dry air without much water content, your sweat evaporates quickly, causing cooling. In humid air that has much moisture already, sweat does not evaporate as easily, leading to overheating of the body. Physical labour – such as on farms, where 48.8% of Indians work – becomes unsafe in such conditions, and can prove fatal, as IndiaSpend reported in July 2021. And this is not in the future. India lost around 259 billion hours of labour annually between 2001 and 2020 due to the impacts of humid heat, as IndiaSpend reported in January 2022 based on a study from researchers at Duke University. The loss of these productive hours cost India $624 billion or about 7% of its 2017 gross domestic product. Felt temperature is the thermal discomfort the human body feels and is a combination of maximum temperature and relative humidity. If we add solar radiation and wind speed to it, it gives us a ' wet bulb globe temperature '. There are discussions globally on whether the WBGT might be the most accurate depiction of temperatures. Either way, meteorologists around the world are now talking about extreme heat not just in temperature numbers but in terms of ' heat stress '. IMD has been issuing a forecast for 'hot and humid weather conditions' for a few years now. For example, on April 17 it forecast that such weather is likely to prevail over Gujarat that day; and in Marathwada and central Maharashtra during April 17-21. 'Hot and humid weather' is when maximum temperatures remain 3 degrees celsius above normal along with above-normal relative humidity. However, these alerts are different from the colour-coded alerts issued by IMD, such as yellow, orange and red to denote heatwaves in summer. 'Humidity is more dynamic than temperature,' explained an IMD scientist who did not wish to be named. 'Humidity cannot have a national mean because it changes throughout the day. As temperature rises, the air's capacity to hold moisture also rises. You cannot have one figure for the entire day also. 'For our experimental heat index, we are using temperature and humidity figures of 2.30 pm but for this heat index or wet bulb globe temperature to become the norm, data is not available in India. We need more studies and data on physiological response from India. It is a multiple stakeholder process beyond IMD,' they added. The officer was referring to an experimental heat index that IMD has been issuing for the last three years wherein it measures 'apparent temperature'. Just like the calculations for 'felt temperature' used earlier, this heat index measures the heat stress the body is expected to feel and is a combination of air temperature and humidity. It is derived using a formula similar to the one being used in the United States but it is not validated across India. Senior IMD scientist RK Jenamani said that the IMD is trying a number of new things. 'In order to look at different thresholds, heat index, we also need all-cause mortality data. But we have started giving hot and humid weather alerts. Everyone is considering humidity, it is definitely a parameter. We are starting a lot of new things. In our daily forecast, we are now forecasting relative humidity also,' said Jenamani. The scientist was referring to an annexure in the daily press communication wherein based on the day's humidity, IMD has been forecasting the next day's humidity levels across India as a percentage range. Stranded on a heat island The phrase 'urban heat island effect' has become ubiquitous in Indian cities. In simple terms, it is the warming effect felt in cities as compared to their nearby rural areas because of construction material used, concretisation, greenhouse gas emissions etc. trapping more heat within those cities. A 2024 report by Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment analysed three factors that contribute to heat stress in six megacities of India during summer – air temperature, land surface temperature and relative humidity. Its findings showed that humidity had contributed to a significant increase in these cities' heat stress. In Chennai, one of the hottest and most humid places in India, humidity was responsible for adding on average 6.3 degrees celsius heat stress to the city. That is because Chennai's summertime has registered 0.4 degrees increase in ambient temperature as decadal average, while its relative humidity has increased by 5% between 2001-'10 and 2014-'23. 'There is direct co-relation between increase in built up area and increase in urban heat stress,' the CSE analysis on Chennai found, adding that the city's built up area has increased from 30% in 2003 to about 74% in 2023, while green cover fell from 34% to 20% in the same time. Kolkata also had identical numbers but less of an urban heat island effect. In Mumbai, summertime has registered a 0.6 degrees celsius increase in comparison while relative humidity has increased by 7% between 2001-'10 and 2014-'23. High humidity was responsible for adding, on average, 5 degrees celsius of heat stress to the city. Mumbai's built up area has increased from 38% in 2003 to 52% in 2023 while its green cover has decreased from 36% to 30% in the same time period. And across India, as we said, humidity increased at the rate of 0.79% per decade during the period of 1969-2012. Global warming has a role to play here as well. A 2011 research paper stated that 'there is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1 degrees celsius warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere'. Outdoor workers swelter Exposure to extreme heat can cause fatigue, heat cramps, dehydration, dizziness and even fatal sunstroke. But how does humid heat impact health? A new paper published by researchers from Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research, Chennai found that workers exposed to high humidity were 150% more likely to experience more physiological strain compared to those in low humidity conditions. Here, physiological strain is calculated using core body temperature and heart rate. It identified a threshold of 32 degrees celsius temperature and 60% relative humidity and stated that 'this highlights a critical point beyond which thermoregulatory mechanisms become inefficient'. The researchers surveyed 1,400 labourers in various outdoor occupations such as agriculture, brick kilns, salt pans for this paper. Tanya Isaac, lead author of the paper, said, 'Temperature and humidity by nature are tough to quantify (their impact on physiological strain). Even then, humidity is very important to track because it limits evaporative cooling from your skin. Even if a person is experiencing a low temperature like 35 degrees celsiuss but very high humidity, they are suffering from heat as good as 45 degrees celsius. You need alerts that combine multiple factors and not just one,' she said. The research has recommended that policymakers must integrate humidity-adjusted thresholds into heat action plans and occupational safety guidelines. Industries such as agriculture, brick kilns, construction, and salt pans require specific protections since they are at extreme risk of heat-related illnesses when this threshold is breached. Some examples of protections in agriculture could be mandatory rest breaks, adjusting work hours, cooling vests, wide brimmed hats and hydration stations. In salt pans, protections could be reflective clothing, mechanised salt harvesting to reduce labour intensity, emergency cooling tents and saline IV drips near worksites, recommended Isaac.
