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News18
3 days ago
- Politics
- News18
Explained: Can China Really Stop The Flow Of Brahmaputra Water To India?
Last Updated: Taking technical, geographical and geopolitical factors into consideration, while China can alter the flow of Brahmaputra to some extent, it cannot fully stop it. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has hit back at Pakistan for claiming China could choke the flow of the Brahmaputra to India with facts, stating that the river 'grows in India, not shrinks". His remarks came after a senior aide to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Rana Ihsaan Afzal, claimed that the suspension of Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan could set a precedent for China to block the Brahmaputra River to India. 'If India does something like this, they stop the flow to Pakistan, then China can also do the same thing. But if things like this happen, then the entire world will be in a war," Afzal told Geo News. But, can China really stop the flow of Brahmaputra river to India? Taking technical, geographical and geopolitical factors into consideration, while China can alter the flow of Brahmaputra to some extent, it cannot fully stop it. In fact, altering the flow, too, could have major implications. Here's a closer look at why China cannot fully stop Brahmaputra's flow into India: Partial Control Due To Geography According to an article on China accounts for only 22 to 30 per cent of the total Brahmaputra River Basin's discharge. The article has been authored by PK Saxena, former Indian Commissioner for Indus Waters and Adviser, Ken Betwa Link Project Authority, Bhopal, and Teerath Singh Mehra, former commissioner, Brahmaputra and Barak, Ministry of Jal Shakti, Government of India. The authors say that the Tibetan weather and scanty rainfall and snowfall amounting to 4-12 inches per annum are mainly responsible for this. They also mention that Bhutan, despite its small size, contributes an equally significant 21 per cent while covering only 6.7 per cent of the river basin. Meanwhile, the Indian basin, which covers 34.2 per cent of the area, they say, contributes the maximum, 39 per cent, of the total discharge in the Brahmaputra River. 'Only 14 per cent of the entire Brahmaputra flow is therefore in the river before it enters India. The balance 86 per cent is contributed by the rains and monsoons in India. It is thus evident that China's contribution to the river flow of the Brahmaputra is minor, though not insignificant," the article says. Assam CM Sarma, in his post on X, mentioned, 'China contributes only ~30–35% of the Brahmaputra's total flow — mostly through glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall. The remaining 65–70% is generated within India, thanks to: Torrential monsoon rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, Major tributaries like Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, Kopili and additional inflows from the Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills via rivers such as Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi." 'At the Indo-China border (Tuting): Flow is ~2,000–3,000 m³/s. In Assam plains (e.g., Guwahati): Flow swells to 15,000–20,000 m³/s during monsoon," he added. China's Dam Construction China has approved the construction of the world's largest hydroelectric dam on the Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet), which involves diverting part of the river's flow through tunnels to generate hydropower. While it poses concerns for India over China altering the flow of water, the concerns are seasonal (specially in non-monsoon months). Assam CM Sarma had in January flagged concerns over China's proposed dam on the Brahmaputra in Tibet, saying the project will make the entire ecosystem fragile and dry. He also said the dam will make Assam depend on rainwater from Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan. According to a PTI report, Sarma had also said the Government of India communicated its concern to the Chinese side. 'We have already communicated that if this dam comes then the Brahmaputra ecosystem will become fragile and dry and then we will depend on the rainwater from Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan," he said. However, the project poses challenges for China as well. According to a report in Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, the Tibetan plateau is seismically active, making large dam projects risky with probabilities of big earthquakes. Any malfunction or natural disaster could cause catastrophic flooding downstream, which would be detrimental to China's own interests. The construction of the dam, hence, comes with its own engineering challenges. According to a Business Today report, experts have warned that if the dam fails due to seismic activity, structural flaws, or sabotage, the impact could devastate Arunachal Pradesh and Assam 'in minutes". The construction of the dam also poses the risk of flooding of northeast Indian states with China controlling the flow of water downstream. Meanwhile, India is also advancing the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project in Arunachal Pradesh, aiming to generate 11,000 MW of hydropower. The project is intended to bolster energy security and counterbalance China's upstream activities, but faces local opposition due to environmental and displacement concerns. Geopolitical Implications Of Altering The Flow China has not shared upstream hydrological data with India since 2022. Any unilateral action by China to manipulate the Brahmaputra river's flow could worsen India-China relations and complicate regional security dynamics. Not just India, any restriction to the flow could also harm China's diplomatic relations with Bangladesh, too, which will be impacted by any such alteration. With such geographical limitations and geopolitical concerns, China cannot fully stop the Brahmaputra river flow into India. A large volume of the river is generated within India itself. While China's dam projects and control over the upper reaches give it some leverage, the river's strength downstream and regional geopolitical realities limit China's ability to 'weaponize the water". First Published: June 03, 2025, 14:36 IST News explainers Explained: Can China Really Stop The Flow Of Brahmaputra Water To India?
Arab News
4 days ago
- Business
- Arab News
Islamabad's delegation in New York to advance Pakistan's case following India standoff briefs UNSC
ISLAMABAD: A high-level Pakistani delegation, led by former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, has met representatives of the United Nations Security Council's elected member states and briefed them on last month's conflict between India and Pakistan as well as New Delhi's attempt to block Pakistan's share of Indus waters, Pakistani state media reported on Monday. Tensions between nuclear-armed Pakistan and India remain high since they struck a ceasefire on May 10 following the most intense military confrontation between them in decades. Both countries accuse the other of supporting militancy on each other's soil — a charge both capitals deny. The latest military escalation, in which the two countries traded missile, drones and artillery fire, was sparked after India accused Pakistan of supporting militants who killed over two dozen tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22. Islamabad denies involvement. In its meeting with representatives of Denmark, Greece, Panama, Japan and other UNSC member states in New York, the Pakistani delegation highlighted that Islamabad's response to Indian missile strikes was 'measured, responsible and in accordance with the UN Charter,' the Radio Pakistan broadcaster reported. 'It briefed the UNSC elected members that [India's] holding [of] Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance may lead to water shortage, food crisis and environmental disaster in Pakistan,' the report read. 'The delegation called on the members of the Security Council to move beyond conflict management and actively support conflict resolution in South Asia.' India announced suspending the 1960 World Bank-brokered treaty, which ensures water for 80 percent of Pakistani farms, a day after the April 22 attack. Islamabad has called for a credible, international probe into the attack and described the Indian move to suspend the treaty as 'act of war.' Bhutto-Zardari told UNSC members that Indian allegations against Pakistan were without any 'credible investigation or verifiable evidence,' and that New Delhi's targeting of innocent civilians and suspension of Indus Waters Treaty was a threat to regional peace, according to the report. The Pakistani delegates underscored Islamabad's commitment to restraint and initiation of a comprehensive dialogue to address outstanding issues with India, particularly the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. Bitter rivals India and Pakistan have fought three wars, including two of them over the disputed region of Kashmir, since gaining independence from British rule in 1947. Both claim the Himalayan territory in its entirety but rule it in part. 'The elected members of UN Security Council appreciated Pakistan's outreach and welcomed its reaffirmation of commitment to peace and diplomacy,' the report said. 'They noted the significance of de-escalation, respect for international law, and the peaceful settlement of disputes emphasized that the UN Charter must guide state conduct, particularly in regions of high sensitivity such as South Asia. They acknowledged the risks posed by any further escalation and stressed the need to pursue diplomatic solutions.' The Pakistani delegation, led by Bhutto-Zardari, will also visit Washington DC, London and Brussels to present Pakistan's position on the conflict. Another delegation, led by Special Assistant to the Prime Minister Tariq Fatemi, will visit Moscow this week. Pakistan's foreign office earlier said the two delegations will 'underscore the imperative for the international community to play its due role in promoting a lasting peace in South Asia.'
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Terrorism is Pakistan's deliberate military strategy, says PM Modi
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel On the second day of his Gujarat visit , Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the veneer of Pakistan's proxy war on India was lifted the moment Pakistan gave state funerals to terrorists killed in Operation Sindoor Addressing a gathering at Mahatma Mandir in Gandhinagar, he said the recent incidents proved that it was no longer merely proxy warfare but a deliberate and calculated military strategy of Pakistan. Pointing out that following India's punitive actions, funerals of terrorists were conducted in Pakistan with full honours, their coffins draped in national flags and even saluted by the Pakistani military, clear indicators that these were not isolated militant activities but part of a structured war a dig at the Opposition, Modi said nine identified terrorist bases were eliminated within 22 minutes, with full transparency ensured through camera documentation, so that no evidence could be questioned further said that following Pakistan's attack in Kashmir after India's independence, Sardar Patel did not want the Indian Army's operations to be stopped until Pakistan-occupied Kashmir was reclaimed. However, Patel's advice was not followed, he said, adding that Pakistan's legacy of terrorism persisted and trained militants continued to infiltrate into India through systematic military training, aiming to target innocent and unarmed civilians, including those undertaking peaceful about the Indus Waters treaty , put in abeyance by India as part of measures to punish Pakistan in the wake of the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack, the PM underscored issues related to water resources in Jammu and Kashmir, pointing out that although dams were constructed on rivers, proper maintenance and de-silting were neglected for 60 said the gates meant for water regulation were left unopened, leading to a drastic reduction in storage capacity - from full utilisation to merely two-three per cent. Indians must receive their rightful access to water, he said, adding that while significant steps were yet to be taken, initial measures had in the day, he held a roadshow in Gandhinagar.
Business Recorder
23-05-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
Ministry warns: India not authorised to construct dams or structures
ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Water Resources has issued a stern warning, declaring that India is not authorized to construct dams or structures that obstruct the flow of water on the western rivers. Any such action, it warned, will be regarded as an act of war and met with an appropriate response. During a briefing to the Senate Standing Committee on Water Resources presided over by Senator Shahdat Awan on Thursday, a team of Water Resources Ministry—led by Federal Minister Muhammad Mueen Wattoo, Secretary Syed Ali Murtaza, and Pakistan's Commissioner for Indus Waters, Syed Mehar Ali Shah—provided detailed insight into India's recent moves to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. The Pakistani officials asserted that India cannot unilaterally suspend the treaty. 'India has already constructed dams on the eastern rivers, which fall under its share, and diverted their water. Now, it is attempting to violate the agreement regarding the western rivers,' said Commissioner Mehar Ali Shah. 'India may build hydroelectric projects on the western rivers under certain conditions, but it is not authorized to construct dams or any structure that blocks the natural flow of these rivers.' He emphasized that if India lacks the legal authority to terminate the agreement unilaterally, then such actions are unacceptable and illegal. Shah further explained that while India has expressed a desire to modify the treaty, Pakistan has never refused dialogue. 'Under Article XII of the IWT, modifications are possible through mutual consent. However, there is no clause that obligates one party to accept the other's proposed changes,' he noted, adding that discussions have been ongoing since January 2023. The committee was also informed that water flow in the Chenab River showed a temporary variation lasting only four days, after which normal inflows resumed. Responding to a question from Senator Humayun Mohmand, Secretary Water Resources Syed Ali Murtaza stressed that Pakistan will not legitimize India's illegal actions under any circumstances. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Business Recorder
India's IWT abeyance action a move aimed at destroying Pakistan's agriculture, Senate body told
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan said on Wednesday that India's action to place Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) 1960 in abeyance is absolutely unacceptable as it is an act of war and an effort to destroy Pakistan's agriculture. This was stated by Minister for Water Resources Moeen Wattoo during a meeting of National Assembly Standing Committee on Water Resources, presided over by the newly appointed Chairman Ahmad Atteeq Anwar. 'India's move is an attack on Pakistan's sovereignty. We will go to every extent to protect our existence,' he added. Secretary Water Resources, Syed Ali Murtaza informed the Committee that India has continuously violated the Indus Waters Treaty and is involved in tampering with water, adding that India also attacked Neelum-Jhelum Dam. India has been informed that it cannot unilaterally suspend the treaty.' World Bank rebukes India over IWT, warns against unilateral moves Neither there is any provision to put the Treaty in abeyance nor suspension, Treaty is invoked and if India does any violation, Pakistan will approach the appropriate forum for remedy. India is not talking with Pakistan under IWT for the last two years despite Pakistan's repeated requests, he added. The Committee was briefed that the office of Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters deals with the implementation of the IWT 1960 signed with India on the sharing of the waters of Indus system on rivers. Under the provisions of the Treaty, the waters from three Eastern Rivers ( Ravi, Suutluj, Beas) have been allocated to India for her exclusive use, whereas the waters of three Western Rivers ( Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) have been allocated to Pakistan, however, from the three Western Rivers, India has been allowed to use water: (i) for domestic use; (ii) non-consumptive use; (iii) limited agriculture use (701,000 acres additional area permitted in India and Indian held part of Jammu and Kashmir in the basins of the three Western rivers i.e. Indus, Jhelum and Chenab);(iv) generation of hydroelectric power( the use is permitted subject to observance of design and operational criteria specified by the Treaty ; and (v) storage works (upper limit of storage has been fixed at 3.60 MAF divided among three Wester rivers basins). Secretary Water Resources further stated that Pakistan has now increased monitoring of our rivers. Even if India builds dams, it cannot stop the flow of water. If India tampers with Pakistan's water, it will be considered an act of war, he said adding that on May 2nd and 3rd, there was a sudden rise in the water level of the Chenab River. Diversion of water from Baghliahar dam has also been noticed and this is being raised through proper channel. 'The water increased for 36 hours and then suddenly dropped — we are investigating this. If India is behind this, it would be a violation of the treaty. We are now collecting evidence and will take it to the relevant forum,' Secretary Water Resources maintained. He said that there are three options in case of a violation: going to the court of arbitration, pursuing diplomatic action, and finally, the military option. India cannot divert water outside the basin. 'We will take India's violation to the international level and to arbitration,' said the Secretary of Water Resources. Rai Hassan Nawaz, MNA inquired about the truth behind the allegations against former Indus Waters Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah. The acting Indus Waters Commissioner, Mehar Ali Shah explained that the information in the media regarding Jamaat Ali Shah is not accurate. He stated that an inquiry had been held against the former Indus Waters Commissioner, Jamaat Ali Shah after making him OSD, however, there is no evidence to support the allegations made against him regarding approaching the appropriate forum against one of the Indian projects. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
