3 days ago
‘Global order has been upset': World Affairs Council gauges tariff war impact on Western Mass
SPRINGFIELD — Empty container ships in China might mean empty shelves in American stores for back-to-school shopping, Halloween and, here's the big one, Christmas.
'The ordering for that is five months or more out,' said business consultant Kristen Rupert, who gave a talk, 'Global Trade Turmoil — Challenges, Implications & Opportunities,' Wednesday afternoon for the World Affairs Council of Western Massachusetts. 'Things could change. But can you restart that process?'
The World Affairs Council of Western Massachusetts was founded in 1927, just after the turmoil of World War I, as part of nationwide effort to combat xenophobia and isolationism among the American electorate. The lunchtime talk drew about 30 people.
The instability and unpredictability of world trade and international relations in the second Donald Trump administration is already having an impact here in Massachusetts.
And unpredictability is the key word. Rupert, who once was the executive director of associated Industries of Massachusetts International Business Council, began her talk Wednesday by asking her audience to keep their phones on and scan for news alerts.
'It's happening that fast,' Rupert said. 'The global order has been upset. And it is going to take a long time to find a new order. If ever.'
But the good news, she said, is that companies are resilient and adaptable. It will just take time.
The tariffs on goods from China were to have been 245%, then a still-high 30%. A 50% tariff on European goods was pushed back until July 9.
'Small businesses are the ones that are really struggling and are going to struggle,' Rupert said. 'If you're Walmart and Target, you can absorb it.'
She talks with owners and CEOs, including one high-end dressmaker who had to cut back on the textiles she can order from France, China and Italy.
Another manufacturer near Boston told her it pre-ordered materials ahead of the tariff in order to save money, but still had to lay off six workers.
She spoke of business worried that they would have to pay high import taxes on goods in transit. It was similar to stories told by V-One Vodka founder Paul Kozub of Western Massachusetts and others.
She also warned of the economic impact from lost tourism — Canadians are a big tourism market for New England, and the loss of international students. At many colleges and universities, foreign students make up 5% to 25% of the student body.
The University of Massachusetts Amherst says in its website that it had 1,600 overseas students last year. Across the state, there were about 79,000 international students at Massachusetts colleges and universities in the 2022-23 academic year.
'And they pay full tuition,' Rupert said. 'And it is not just them. It is their families who come to visit.'
She did have some advice. She wants business to make their case in the public and political spheres
CEOs should measure the impact in terms of jobs and reach out to elected officials and use suppliers and customers in other states to get attention in Republican-leaning red and 'purple' congressional districts.
Massachusetts can be at a disadvantage as a heavily Democratic state with less clout in a polarized Washington.
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Read the original article on MassLive.
