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Calgary Herald

Opinion: Our collective dystopian future could be avoided

The protagonist in the dystopian novel Noetic Marj Odyssey, by Calgary author Inga M. Nelson, is a 17-year-old girl named Marj. She needs to wear respirators because of the smoke in the air due to forest fires. New types of infectious diseases that were dormant for thousands of years are active and pose a serious threat. Article content Article content These are some of the effects of unmitigated global warming projected by Nelson in 2046. Article content Article content The global climate change performance index, which ranks countries against how they are fulfilling their responsibilities to climate change mitigation, ranks Canada (62), the U.S. (57) and China (55) among the lowest performers in terms of legislating and implementing climate change policies. Among the top performers are Denmark, Netherlands, Britain and India (No. 10 ranking). In Canada, lobbying efforts by oil and gas producing provinces and the sector in general have forestalled attempts to legislate a transition to net-zero emissions by 2050. Article content Article content In the federal election campaign, climate change action is being portrayed by the conservative right as the enemy of economic efficiency and competitiveness. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre portrayed the consumer carbon tax as the No. 1 contributor to lack of affordability. Article content Article content These characterizations are inaccurate. The purpose of carbon pricing is to cap carbon emissions and enable trading of carbon credits in a competitive market. Several countries — including the EU, Britain, Sweden, China, Japan and South Korea — have carbon pricing regimes in effect. Carbon pricing regimes have not affected economic efficiency and competitiveness in these countries. Article content Post-COVID inflation was the No. 1 contributor to lack of productivity during the Justin Trudeau years in Canada. Inflation was triggered not by the carbon tax but due to misalignment between the fiscal and monetary policies of the Trudeau government. Liberal Leader Mark Carney's background as a central banker enables him to ensure this misalignment does not occur again in Canada. Article content A market-based carbon pricing approach to transitioning to clean energy would be the impetus needed to help provinces diversify from oil and gas dependence. While Carney has pledged to keep the market-based approach to reducing industrial carbon emissions through a carbon pricing regime (not a tax), Poilievre has promised to eliminate any federally mandated pricing. Instead, he would leave it to the provinces to deal with industrial emissions. Article content This begs the question of whether provincial initiatives alone would be sufficient for Canada to meet its commitments for scheduled reductions in carbon emissions under the Paris Accord, intended to help most countries transition to zero carbon emissions by 2050. Article content Article content Oil and gas producing provinces and the sector are seeking to expand production without limitations. However, there are limits to how much production can increase without retaliatory measures from OPEC countries, who do not want their market share eroded. Article content It is important to consider that peak oil consumption globally is expected to be reached between 2030 and 2035, according to the International Energy Agency. While it may make sense to incrementally increase Alberta's exports by expanding the existing TMX pipeline capacity to the west, it makes no sense to build a new pipeline to the east. Article content Another populist measure being put forward by the federal Conservatives claims that only one per cent of single-use plastics are not recycled. However, statistics indicate the vast majority of single-use plastics end up in landfills or the environment, while about 14 per cent is recycled. Plastics in landfills leach into groundwater. Hence, laws are needed to continue control of plastics pollution, consistent with the Canadian Constitution of Canada and the country's responsibilities. Article content While populist measures such as those put forward by Poilievre may appeal to some, it is important to bear in mind the kind of world we will be leaving behind for our children and grandchildren. The dystopian scenario put forward by the Calgary author is not far from what we are experiencing today.