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Free Malaysia Today
3 days ago
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Difficult for BRICS to stay united, says expert
BRICS founding members India and China have clashed over a border dispute, while other members have similar issues. (EPA Images pic) ASTANA : An expert on foreign policy believes that the BRICS group of emerging economies would find it difficult to stay united with tensions expected to surface as the US-China trade war escalates. Michel Duclos, a special advisor and resident senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne in Paris, said that while the bloc's members shared common worldviews, cracks were likely to appear in the grouping. Michel Duclos. 'BRICS will continue because they have a lot of common interests in their views about the world. 'But the organisation will be less and less cohesive, and some tensions will start appearing between some of the members of the club,' he told FMT during the Astana International Forum, an international platform for dialogue on climate change, geopolitics, as well as food and energy security. When asked which BRICS members were likely to clash, Duclos declined to name them but doubled down on his view. 'With issues like the trade war or various geopolitical issues, it's difficult to see BRICS remaining as united as it used to be.' The term BRICS was coined for the economic grouping formed in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China. South Africa joined in 2010 and the bloc later expanded to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia. Malaysia became a BRICS partner country on Jan 1 and could become a full member. India and China, among the founding members of BRICS, have seen tensions in the past over border disputes, including a deadly clash between their soldiers in the Himalayan frontier in 2020. Iran and the UAE also have territorial disputes in the Persian Gulf, while Egypt and Ethiopia have locked horns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project on the Nile River. Thomas Greminger, executive director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, said one of the reasons for the differences within BRICS was the way its own members had differing perspectives on the bloc and its purpose. 'There are those that use it clearly as an anti-Western platform, and that is definitely the case for China and Russia, but you have others that wouldn't see it like that at all,' he told FMT. For instance, he said, India and Brazil saw the grouping more as a platform to establish a global economic order that was more in their favour than that of the US. 'It's partly political, but it's not an anti-Western agenda. It's an agenda of being more assertive, to be taken more seriously as middle powers or as rising powers.' Nonetheless, Greminger believed the bloc would remain cohesive at least in the medium term, due to frustrations with a world order perceived to be constructed by the West. He cited the failure of the United Nations to reform the Security Council as one reason several countries were turning to BRICS. 'I think it's basically the fruit of a growing frustration with the traditional multilateral institutions.' Because of that, BRCIS is likely to remain relevant in the medium term unless other regional and global organisations reform themselves to become more inclusive, he said.
South China Morning Post
28-03-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
‘Reverse Deng': can Europe pull a role reversal and secure Chinese battery tech?
Since January, much ink has been spilled debating whether US President Donald Trump 's zany geopolitical policies have at their core a guiding principle referred to as a 'reverse Nixon'. Advertisement The goal, the theory goes, is to coax Russia from China's bosom, thereby weakening the US' primary adversary, in an inversion of former US leader Richard Nixon's thawing ties with China in the 1970s to isolate the Soviet Union. In Paris this week, however, a play on this term emerged in an effort to sum up a new element to the EU's approach to Beijing. 'Can Europe do a 'reverse Deng' with China?' asked François Godement of the Institut Montaigne, a French think tank, in a paper. Godement was referring to paramount leader Deng Xiaoping 's 'endorsement of special economic zones and joint ventures drawing in foreign capital and technology' 45 years ago, when China kicked off the reform and opening up to grow the economy. 'These policies led to China's economic miracle. Its economic surge is unparalleled in history, even considering the post-WWII success of Japan and the 'four dragons',' he wrote. Advertisement The 'four dragons' refer to the developed Asian economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan which achieved rapid industrialisation and fast economic growth rates in the second half of the 20th century.
Yahoo
26-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump, Macron and Zelensky lead wave of new 'mobile phone diplomacy'
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky interrupted a press conference he was holding to answer a telephone call from his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, he opened a window into a new world of geopolitical diplomacy. "Can I call you back in 15 to 20 minutes," Zelensky asked Macron before returning to reporters' questions. He then revealed that he spoke to Macron "once a day". Mobile phone exchanges between world leaders are "a new diplomacy" that is "more direct and spontaneous" and allows for "more frequent, quicker" contact, a Macron aide told AFP. The French president speaks to both Zelensky and US President Donald Trump "almost every day", a member of his team said. The same goes for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Mobile phone diplomacy is having knock-on effects, though, sidelining diplomats who are now no longer essential mediums of geopolitical communication. And these mobile phone exchanges have become more frequent since Trump returned to the White House with his unorthodox style of leadership. Whereas once, telephone contact between two leaders was organised in advance by aides and took place in their presence, these days such contact can be much less formal. Macron has spoken about how Trump sometimes contacts him "directly" without warning, even forcing him to leave meetings for a quick chat. In the corridors of power at the Elysee Palace in Paris, that is considered a necessary occupational hazard in a bid to exert influence on Trump. Such designs have become even more pressing for Ukraine and its European allies given the US president's abrupt foreign policy U-turn and softening of its stance towards Russia's Vladimir Putin. - 'Dangerous' - Such exchanges are not entirely new however, while their use can also depend on the different individuals involved. Trump prefers direct contact without intermediaries, whereas his predecessor Joe Biden stuck to classical bureaucracy, an ex-diplomat said. "Things have picked up pace. There has been a change in rhythm which has provoked a change in the nature of relationships," French former ambassador Michel Duclos, now an expert at the Institut Montaigne think tank, told AFP. In a French sense, that means that foreign policy has been increasingly concentrated in the presidency, Duclos added. Zelensky began direct mobile phone diplomacy as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Initially that was with Polish President Andrzej Duda, and sometimes even to discuss "topics that are much below the level of presidents, like some logistical and bureaucratic issues at the border", a source close to Zelensky told AFP. These kinds of calls aimed "to simplify and speed up everything as much as possible". The downside, according to Duclos, is that if the leader does not brief his aides soon after such calls, they could be left "out in the cold". The use of mobile phones is not exclusive and regular diplomatic channels are still in operation. While Trump has given his mobile phone number to Zelensky, the Ukrainian president has never called it. And despite his unorthodox approach, when Trump recently held two telephone calls with Putin -- bringing the Russian leader in from the cold of his relative international isolation -- he seems to have used conventional channels. But the former reality TV star has also boasted of holding many other telephone conversations with Putin of which there are no official records. Such covert conversations are "dangerous", said Duclos, who believes that Putin is a master at "manipulating" others. For Ian Bremmer, president of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, such contact would be "a strong advantage if it was between two leaders who trust each other, in the context of a stable functional relationship." But that's not the case with Trump, Bremmer told AFP. There is also the question of confidentiality. Diplomatic sources say that leaders speak to each other over encrypted platforms, such as Signal. But that was the medium by which an American journalist was apparently accidentally given access to a group in which top figures in Trump's administration discussed military plans. vl-ant-dk-fff/jmt/ybl/bc/sbk
The Guardian
09-03-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
The Guardian view on Modi redrawing India's electoral map: deepening a dangerous north-south divide
When Narendra Modi's alliance won a narrow majority in last year's Indian election, it signalled his waning popularity after a decade in power. A victory in 2029 may seem unlikely. Yet his government's push to redraw parliamentary constituencies using post-2026 census data could tilt the electoral field in his favour. The process, known as delimitation, ensures each member of parliament represents an equal number of voters – a principle of democratic fairness. Since 1976, however, it has been frozen to avoid penalising Indian states that curbed population growth. If delimitation proceeds, Mr Modi's populous northern strongholds will gain seats, weakening the political clout of India's economically dynamic and culturally distinct southern cone. Its five states are governed by different parties but, critically, none belong to Modi's ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP). Southern states have long accused Mr Modi's government of bias in federal funding and project approvals. Last week's gathering of the south's political leadership in Delhi to protest against his move underscores the risk of backlash. India's north and south are worlds apart: the six largest northern states have 600 million people – twice the south's population – but lag far behind. Tamil Nadu thrives on industry, education and social mobility, with only 6% in poverty compared with 23% in Bihar. A child in Kerala has better survival odds than in the US; in BJP-run Uttar Pradesh (UP), they're worse than in Afghanistan. It makes sense to redistribute resources to alleviate poverty. But UP alone receives more federal tax revenue than all five southern states combined. Even if it grew faster than southern India, it would take decades to catch up in per capita income. For southern India, delimitation represents both economic and political marginalisation – being taxed more, represented less and sidelined in national policymaking. A recent paper by Paris's Institut Montaigne thinktank highlights how India's north-south divide is deepening due to economic, demographic and political disparities, stirring southern discomfort. It compares the situation to the EU's Greek debt crisis, where wealthier northern countries resented subsidising the poorer southern ones. The report considers Mr Modi's home state of Gujarat – a wealthy but highly unequal western region with slow population growth – but warns that the Hindi‑speaking north's larger populace and lack of socioeconomic progress will deepen tensions and drag the country down. The Indian economist Jean Drèze notes that while the BJP lost ground in the north in 2024, it gained in the south. He argues that if seats were redistributed by population while maintaining state-wise party shares, Mr Modi's coalition would have won 309 MPs, not 294, out of 543 – an edge in a tight race. Prof Drèze suggests Mr Modi may be pushing delimitation to lock in a lead in 2029, when rising discontent could threaten his hold on power. Southern concerns could be addressed by freezing seat allocations for decades to allow the north to catch up. However, Mr Modi seems to prefer expanding India's parliament to prevent any state from losing representation, while shrinking southern influence. Much hinges on the timing of India's census, a crucial tool for evidence-based policymaking. Already postponed due to Covid in 2021, further delays are increasingly difficult to justify – they obstruct welfare distribution, stall efforts to improve women's parliamentary representation and appear politically motivated. If delimitation proceeds before 2029 it could reshape India's political landscape to the BJP's advantage – but at the cost of a growing north-south rift that threatens to fracture the Indian union.
Bloomberg
07-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump Has Reshuffled All the Cards: de Bailliencourt
Institut Montaigne Managing Director Marie-Pierre de Bailliencourt says Trump's position on defense, NATO and tariffs has opened a vast unknown for Europe. She also says Europe has the know-how and infrastructure to defend itself, but lacks the budget and coherent will. She speaks to Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on 'The Pulse.' (Source: Bloomberg)
