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Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Experts issue dire warning as food prices rise faster than inflation: 'This process is affecting multiple regions worldwide'
A recent version of the Ibre Letter, a monthly economic analysis from Brazil's Institute of Economics at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, explained why domestic food prices are rising faster than the country's general inflation. And while the answer was complex, a lot of it came down to changes in weather and climate, Agência Brasil reported. Ibre's research included statistics from the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which found that Brazil's food and beverage prices had risen by 7.25% over 12 months as of February. This was nearly twice as much as the overall inflation index of 4.56%. Between 2012 and 2024, household grocery and food prices rose by 162%. Ibre included several specific examples that illustrate the extreme increases, including fruit (up 299%) and vegetables (up 246%). When compared to the overall IPCA of 109%, several of these categories outpaced overall inflation by a factor of nearly two or three times. Ibre's author, Luiz Guilherme Schymura, explained that much of it comes down to a short supply, which has been intensified by rising global temperatures. A spike in extreme weather events and meteorological unpredictability, which are fueled by the planet's warming atmosphere, "are disrupting the supply of commodities [goods traded at international prices] and food products," he told Agência Brasil. "This process is affecting multiple regions worldwide, with Brazil being notably impacted." With severe droughts, flash floods, heat waves, tornadoes, and hurricanes all growing in severity and frequency due to the warming planet, farmers are anxious about being able to sustain stable harvests in the future. The issue extends beyond crops, too. Beef production dropped substantially in 2021 after pastures suffered significant damage from drought. In 2023, it had reached its lowest point in at least 10 years, Agência Brasil explained. The issue of a dwindling food supply isn't limited to just Brazil, and Brazilians won't be the only ones facing its impact. Ibre explained that agricultural production around the globe grew an average of 2.6% per year in the 1990s and 2000s but slowed to 1.9% in the 2010s. Much of this is due to unfavorable weather and climate conditions. Farmers worldwide have faced difficulties due to these factors, from sweetcorn in the Netherlands, to soybeans in Argentina, to apples in India. Ibre put it frankly: "Brazil is not producing enough food for its own population and the world. Crop production is growing at a slower pace than needed to meet domestic and international demand for food, particularly for human consumption." Do you worry about how much food you throw away? Definitely Sometimes Not really Never Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. The Ibre Letter emphasized that "the rise in food prices is not a temporary phenomenon" and therefore must be dealt with both now and in an ongoing way. Schymura recommended several practical approaches for both farmers and policymakers, all of which he says will help stabilize and boost the food supply. These suggestions include incorporating a wider variety of crops, building storage structures and public storage areas, and providing targeted credits to farmers. On an individual level, learning to shop smarter at the grocery store can help you squeeze more savings out of your grocery bill. And if you really want to cut back on grocery costs, learning to grow your own food is a great way to both save money and eat healthier. Join our free newsletter for easy tips to save more and waste less, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
Yahoo
14-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariff Shock Awaits China After Trade Surplus Hits $103 Billion
(Bloomberg) -- Supply Lines is a daily newsletter that tracks global trade. Sign up here. The Secret Formula for Faster Trains NYC Tourist Helicopter Crashes in Hudson River, Killing Six Even Oslo Has an Air Quality Problem Inside the Quiet, Extravagant Expansion of the Frick Collection Lisbon Mayor Wants Companies to Help Fix City's Housing Shortage The world's two biggest economies are headed for a divorce that will likely play out for the rest of this year and beyond, after a month that saw a huge spurt in China's exports and its overall trade surplus hit near $103 billion. Such an increasingly unbalanced flow of commerce is one of the problems US President Donald Trump says he's trying to fix with his tariffs on China, provoking tit-for-tat measures now spiraling into a trade war. Although Trump exempted many popular consumer electronics from his 125% tariffs on goods produced in China — at least for now — Beijing described this a 'small step' and urged the US to take a 'big stride' to defuse the trade tensions. Their standoff is already reshaping global commerce, with near-record shipments flowing from China to Southeast Asia last month. A frontloading of shipments ahead of the massive tariff hikes imposed by Trump against China this month also contributed to what was likely the last of the boom in trade with the US. China's trade surplus with the US accounted for more than a quarter of its total in March. Overall, last month's exports in dollar terms far exceeded forecasts and soared 12.4% from a year earlier, China's customs authority said Monday, reversing a decline of 3% in February. China and the US have spent the past two weeks locked in an escalating trade war, with both sides piling on new tariffs and raising barriers to trade. Both are holding out for the other to make the first move: Trump has said he's 'waiting' for a call from Beijing, while Chinese officials have repeatedly said they're open to negotiations but won't be bullied into talking. 'The deadlock may take some private intermediary contacts to break,' said Song Hong, deputy director of the Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank. 'It's impossible that China will submit to the US bully like some smaller trade partners. Irrational practices need to be removed or reduced, such as the additional tariffs slapped, to return to the track of rational dialogue.' The fallout of America's economic split from China will likely begin to materialize from this month, with little sign that the two sides are willing to back down and reduce their tariffs. China's Commerce Ministry last week called the Trump administration's use of steep tariffs — bringing them to economically meaningless levels — a 'joke.' While the prospect of a thaw seems far off, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday on ABC's This Week that the two sides have already had 'soft entrees' through intermediaries. 'We all expect that the president of the United States and President Xi of China will work this out,' he said. Lutnick's comment was trending atop the X-like Weibo Monday afternoon, attracting more than 40 million reads. While some users said the US is looking for an off-ramp, others made fun of Trump's flip-flops on China. For businesses, however, time is too short to take any chances. In March, many companies were likely bringing forward orders to get ahead of tariffs. What's more, the latest figures suggest companies were diverting shipments to countries across Southeast Asia, with China's exports to the region reaching the second-highest ever. This week, President Xi Jinping is making his first overseas trip of the year by visiting Southeast Asian nations including Vietnam. Exports to Vietnam and Thailand soared to records, while sales to the US exceeded $40 billion last month, up 9% on year and reversing a decline in February. The Trump administration put tariffs of higher than 100% on many Chinese exports, provoking a retaliation by Beijing. 'From Beijing's perspective, it now requires Trump to make some relatively big concessions as a gesture of him being willing to launch a meaningful dialogue with China,' said Feng Chucheng, founding partner of Hutong Research. Given a 'rather busy schedule' for China's leadership in the next several weeks, Feng said such a breakthrough is 'not possible' in the near term. Even so, the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings in Washington later this month will offer an opportunity for top US and Chinese officials at least to interact with each other. The annual discussions will mark the first global gathering since the most recent tariffs were announced. While China's export surge supported the economy in the first quarter, that boost may dissipate after the US threw global trade into chaos. China will report first-quarter economic growth on Wednesday, with gross domestic product forecast to expand 5.2%, according to a Bloomberg survey. Chinese stocks climbed for a fifth session on Monday, partly as the US tariff exemption offered investors some respite. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed 2.1% higher, while the CSI 300 Index for onshore shares rose 0.2%. 'The US has to find the proper way to deal with China,' said Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University's Center for American Studies in Shanghai. 'And unilaterally exerting pressure on China, including tariffs, is not the right way.' Newly-added US duties on Chinese goods this year hit 145% — well above the levels analysts have said would decimate bilateral trade — before the US decision to exempt certain consumer electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs. Trump downplayed his exemptions on Sunday, pledging still to apply tariffs to phones, computers and popular consumer electronics. What Bloomberg Economics Says... 'China's trade data for March has yet to reflect the full impact of the trade war. US buyers may have rushed to ship in goods before higher tariffs started in April, pushing exports up sharply. Going the other way, domestic producers appear to have reduced purchases due to concerns about a potential drop in external demand and still-soft domestic consumption. Looking ahead, exports may face strong headwinds in April.' — David Qu. For full analysis, click here Last week, Beijing hiked tariffs on all US goods to 125%, mirroring a move by the White House that pushed duties on Chinese imports to the same level, on top of an existing fentanyl-related 20% tax. China said it won't match any further hikes, but reiterated its vow to 'fight to the end' with other, unspecified countermeasures. 'The current levels of tariffs are obviously going to be damaging to both parties,' said Lynn Song, Greater China chief economist at ING Bank NV. 'After the recent cycle of escalation cools off, we expect that working level officials may get into contact, though a top level dialogue may not occur until the framework for an agreement is largely agreed upon.' --With assistance from Ailing Tan, Zhu Lin, Katia Dmitrieva and Josh Xiao. The Beauty Salon Recession Indicator Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose World Travelers Are Rethinking Vacation Plans to the US How One MBA Grad Blew the Whistle on a $2 Billion Deal Cheap Consumer Goods Are the American Dream, Actually ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
