Latest news with #InstituteofSupplyManagement
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs spark concern, May's manufacturing PMI slips to 48.5: ISM
Manufacturing activity slipped again in May, with the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) falling to 48.5. ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Susan Spence joins Catalysts to explain how the tariff environment is weighing on demand and driving layoffs across the manufacturing landscape. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Fibre2Fashion
05-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
World manufacturing conditions worsen for 1st time in 4 months in Apr
World manufacturing operating conditions deteriorated for the first time in four months in April this year, according to the J.P. Morgan global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. Though the rate of decline was marginal, the data provided evidence of further potential weakness. World manufacturing operating conditions deteriorated for the first time in four months in April, manufacturing PMI data show. Though the drop rate was marginal, there was proof of further potential weakness. Global trade conditions worsened, jobs cut and business optimism slumped to a two-and-a-half year low. India, Ireland and the Philippines saw the greatest increases in production in April. Global trade conditions worsened, jobs were cut and business optimism slumped to a two-and-a-half year low. The PMI, produced by J.P. Morgan and S&P Global Market Intelligence in association with the Institute of Supply Management and the International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management, fell to 49.8 in April, down from 50.3 in March. Three of the five PMI components—new orders, employment and stocks of purchases—were at levels signalling contraction, in contrast to the trends in output and supplier delivery times, which were both consistent with improved operating performance. The expansion in production was the fourth in successive months. However, the rate of growth has remained weak throughout this sequence, a release from S&P Global Market Intelligence said. Output rose slightly in both the consumer and intermediate goods industries and was unchanged compared to one month earlier at investment goods producers. India, Ireland and the Philippines saw the greatest increases in production during April. Expansions were also registered in China and the euro area, among others. The United States and Japan were two of the larger nations to see contractions. New business fell for the first time in four months during April, with new export orders suffering its steepest decrease since August 2023. Rates of contraction in new export work accelerated to 18-, 16- and three-month highs in the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors respectively. Of the 28 nations for which PMI new export orders data were available for April 2025, all except three (Germany, India and Greece) saw new export business decrease. North America was particularly hard hit with the US, Canada and Mexico all seeing substantial drops in new export work, although the United Kingdom registered the steepest overall contraction. Business optimism fell to its lowest ebb since October 2022. Reasons cited by companies for their gloomier outlooks were mostly centred around concerns about the impact of tariffs and protectionism on their order books, supply chains and pricing. The level of global manufacturing business sentiment is not far off lows seen in 2019 when concerns about trade protectionism were also on the rise. Manufacturing employment fell for the ninth successive month in April, with the rate of job losses the fastest since January. Staffing levels were reduced in China, the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom, among others. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Forbes
02-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Tariffs To Be Announced After Market Close
New tariffs are set to be announced today, after the close of the stock market. (Photo by Gregor ...) Key Takeaways Stocks were mixed on Tuesday with the S&P 500 up 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.9% while both the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat. Markets have been waiting on today's announcement from President Trump as to just what new tariffs imposed by the U.S. will look like. That announcement is expected today, after the close of trading. While the tariff news will be the most talked about story, there are also some other items worth noting and what they may be suggesting from a macro perspective. Let's begin though with tariffs. Not much is known at this point as to just what will and won't be tariffed or the rates which will be applied. President Trump has kept his plans to himself but will announce them today at 3PM CT. While equity markets will be closed, index futures trade until 4PM CT and then reopen at 5PM. I think those will give us the first glimpse of how markets interpret whatever is announced. On Tuesday, the most recent Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released. That index came in at 49, below estimates of 49.5. While this isn't a headline grabbing number like Friday's employment report, I bring it up because it is one of those numbers you hear about when it breaks a certain threshold, which is what it did by falling below 50. Generally speaking, when this number is above 50, it means the economy is expanding. When it falls below 50, it suggests a contracting economy and is a possible recession indicator. Related to the ISM PMI number is what we're seeing with the benchmark 10-year note and its yield. After hitting a high of 4.81% in January, rates have been steadily declining. Currently, yields on the 10-year are down to 4.14%. As recently as just a couple months ago, elevated yields were being talked about as a sign of inflation. Now, the narrative has switched. Falling rates aren't being attributed to inflation coming under control, but rather, as a sign of a weakening economic outlook. The ISM PMI and fall in rates are just two data points and I don't want to jump to any conclusions about the future of the economy. At the same time, in addition to Friday's jobs report, we have a fair amount of economic data this week, much of which isn't something we might normally pay attention to. However, when investors begin getting nervous, they latch on to economic data they might otherwise ignore. Tied into the economic data are gold and oil prices. Gold, often seen as a safe haven, is trading above $3160 in premarket. Since its low of $1831 back in October of 2023, gold has been on a tear and is up 20% this year. Until recently, oil prices were trading in the mid-$60s. Prices have jumped above $70 recently, but I don't think that is a result of demand. Instead, I think it's a result of tariffs. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all goods from any country doing business in the U.S. that also imports oil from Venezuela. Therefore, even at $70, I believe oil is suggesting a weakened economic outlook. Turning to individual stocks, according to The Wall Street Journal, Visa is offering Apple $100 million dollars to take over its credit card business. Goldman Sachs was the original issuer of the Apple Card, which is supported by the MasterCard network. Since Goldman announced plans to leave the consumer lending sector, a bidding war has been going on for Apple's business with American Express, Chase and MasterCard all making offers. Tesla is scheduled to announce first quarter sales today. As Elon Musk has become more of a political figure, shares of Tesla have come under a lot of selling pressure. For the year, shares are down 34%. At the same time, Tesla dealerships and cars have been protested against and vandalized. Musk's association with the Trump Administration has had the effect of making the Tesla brand an extension of a political ideology. Therefore, it will be interesting to hear their sales numbers and outlook. For today, obviously the big story will be after the close. We often see directional moves ahead of big news and then as the release nears, markets move back toward being unchanged. Therefore, I would not be at all surprised if we see a big move intraday that reverses itself. I'm not necessarily expecting any panic at this point. While the VIX is at 23.54 in premarket, thus far, all the selling we have seen has been orderly. VIX briefly touched 30 at one point this year, which is a number where things can get panicky, but it quickly pulled back from that level. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we see an increase in volatility during the day, then a contraction overnight. While most agree tariffs are bad for an economy, there may be a sense of certainty after the announcement, allowing VIX to contract. As always, I would stick with your investing plan and long-term objectives. tastytrade, Inc. commentary for educational purposes only. This content is not, nor is intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any investment product or strategy is suitable for any person.
Yahoo
01-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariff Fears Reverse Recent Gains in Manufacturing Sector
President Donald Trump says tariffs are designed to bolster U.S. manufacturing sector by encouraging more domestic production of goods. However, the manufacturing sector is experiencing slowing demand and increased costs as uncertainty persists about the details of major tariff policies. Surveys of manufacturing executives released Tuesday showed weak production, orders and may be designed to bolster manufacturing, but the sector is starting to show nerves amid uncertainty around the import taxes. Two manufacturing industry surveys Tuesday showed that managers in the sectors saw slowing business in March, reversing recent growth. While tariffs continued to weigh on short-term sentiment, the surveys also showed that manufacturers were becoming increasingly worried about tariffs' long-term effects. 'Production and new orders portrayed weaker dynamics and businesses were less eager to hire in a less certain environment,' wrote Nationwide Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March fell to 49%, indicating a contraction in business activity coming after two months of growth in the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) survey. Before registering expansion in January and February, the ISM survey showed nearly two straight years of contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Factory managers struggled with inflated prices and high borrowing costs. However, uncertainty around tariffs policy is taking its toll on the sector, as survey results showed that potentially higher import taxes were at the top of manufacturing executives' minds. The ISM survey also showed that prices rose while new orders declined, hiring slowed and inventories piled up as manufacturers bought supplies ahead of the tariffs. A similar report from S&P Global also reflected declining sentiment in the manufacturing sector. 'A front-running of tariffs and shift to minimize import exposure is driving up prices, while persistent uncertainty is crimping underlying demand and leaves manufacturers longing for clarity,' wrote Wells Fargo economists Shannon Grein and Tim Quinlan. The reports come ahead of Wednesday's 'Liberation Day,' on which Trump is set to announce new tariff policies that could impact business with a wide swath of U.S. trading partners. Trump has promoted tariffs as a means to help the struggling U.S. manufacturing sector by encouraging more domestic production of goods. However, uncertainty over what the details of the tariff policy will be moving forward is dampening some manufacturers' outlook, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 'Business optimism about the year ahead has deteriorated further from January's near three-year high and has dropped sharply over the past two months, causing firms to stop raising payroll counts for the first time since October,' Williamson said. Read the original article on Investopedia
Axios
04-03-2025
- Business
- Axios
New tariffs hit, but there's a $100 billion hole in the data
President Trump is making good on tariff threats that will raise the stakes of his trade war with China and potentially ignite another in North America. Why it matters: It breaks a pattern of head fakes that Wall Street and businesses large and small had hoped would continue. Financial market jitters and bearish anecdotes from manufacturers were not enough to stave off the levies. Trump will plow ahead with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and double the import tax on Chinese goods to 20%, with few hints of how long the measures will last. The big picture: Escalating trade tensions have already been rattling the economy, even before the new tariffs took effect. Many businesses are in paralysis, waiting to make a move until White House trade policy becomes clear. One manufacturer told the Institute of Supply Management: "Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs. There is no clear direction from the administration on how they will be implemented, so it's harder to project how they will affect business." The intrigue: A new report casts doubt on how much a tougher trade policy has actually choked off imports from China. There are upwards of $100 billion worth of imports "missing" from U.S. data in 2024 — a trend that has worsened since the opening salvo of the trade war in 2018, according to calculations by the New York Fed. The report finds that "virtually all" of the missing imports can be attributed to China. If the nation is more reliant on Chinese imports than previously thought, the economic blowback from new tariffs might be worse. What they're saying: "Simply stated, the U.S. is saying it buys from China a lot less than what China says it is selling," Hunter Clark, an economic policy advisor at the New York Fed, writes in a new report. One clue: At least half stems from a surge of small-dollar purchases from China — including imports from popular Chinese e-commerce sites — that are not included in U.S. import data. These de minimis imports are not subject to tariffs and enter the U.S. "with light documentation," the report says, which contributes to the understated import data. About 67% of all the de minimis imports came from China between 2018 and 2021, according to estimates by Customs and Border Protection cited in the New York Fed report. What to watch: An initial Trump order would have effectively scrapped the de minimis exemption. That has been paused indefinitely while the government develops a system to collect tariffs on these goods. If that exemption is nixed, the effects might be notable for consumers buying from shopping platforms like Shein or Temu. The bottom line: Trump has implemented bigger China tariffs in recent weeks than in the entirety of his first stint in office. A flaw in trade measurement adds to the uncertainty of how big a shock might be ahead.
