7 days ago
The Phoenix doctrine: Why Iran grows stronger
Many years ago, while writing a research paper on Iran, I was impressed by a recurring theme: Researchers and visitors alike consistently spoke of the depth of Persian civilisation and culture, in addition to falling deeply in love with the country. They described breathtaking landscapes in the south and the north, profound ancient history in Takht Jamshid and Isfahan, and a culture marked by extraordinary warmth, poetry and intellectual depth in Shiraz.
We, in Oman, appreciate this enduring appeal and how it stands in sharp contrast to the image sometimes portrayed internationally. This is evident in the recent warm welcoming of the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Muscat. Today, Iran faces intense military and economic pressure from the US and regional actors. Yet, history and current realities suggest a counterintuitive outcome: Iran is poised to emerge stronger from this fire. This resilience is deeply rooted in Persian civilisation and refined by decades of defiance.
Forged in the fire
The relentless economic sanctions, while causing undeniable hardship, have paradoxically forced Iran to diversify its economy away from crippling oil dependence, fostering significant self-reliance. The doctrine of the "Resistance Economy", actively promoted, prioritises boosting domestic production, slashing non-essential imports, and ramping up non-oil exports. The results, though emerging amidst high inflation (around 35 per cent as of mid-2024, IMF estimates), are tangible. Iran's non-oil exports reached a record $53 billion in 2023 (Iran Customs data). Sectors like agriculture, petrochemicals and mining have grown, while domestic manufacturing — especially in vital areas like pharmaceuticals and basic goods — has surged out of sheer necessity. Projections even indicate modest economic growth for 2024 (around 2-3 per cent, IMF/World Bank). This echoes the pragmatic ingenuity seen in Cyrus the Great's administration, which governed a vast, diverse empire through systems promoting local governance and infrastructure, fostering stability through adaptation.
Strategic depth
Military pressure and isolation have pushed Iran to invest heavily in building a network of regional partnerships and developing potent asymmetric capabilities. This strategy creates deterrence and extends influence far beyond its borders at a relatively low cost. Iran's advanced drone and missile technology, starkly demonstrated in operations like the April 2024 strike involving over 300 projectiles, showcases a capacity that complicates any direct military confrontation. Sanctions have demonstrably failed to halt the advancement or proliferation of these capabilities. Historically, the Safavid Empire (1501-1736) faced similar encirclement by powerful Ottoman and Mughal rivals. They survived and thrived by leveraging strategic alliances, fortifying key positions and innovating militarily, ultimately defining Persian culture as a unifying force against external pressures.
The cement of cohesion
External pressure often acts as a powerful unifying force in Iran, strengthening nationalist sentiment and rallying diverse populations against a perceived common aggressor. Sanctions are consistently framed domestically as an attack on the nation itself, not merely the government. While significant internal social and economic discontent exists, overt external threats consistently trigger a rallying effect. The massive national outpouring of grief and unity following the series assassinations of generals, ministers and the former president, with millions filling the streets, exemplified this dynamic. Continued pressure reinforces a deep-seated narrative of Iran as a besieged civilisation standing firm, a legacy stretching back to symbols like the defiant stand at the Battle of Thermopylae (480 BC) and the national mobilisation during the gruelling Iran-Iraq War.
Costs and challenges
This trajectory is not without severe costs or contradictions. Iran's regional interventions, while enhancing its leverage in some arenas, have also incurred disastrous consequences. Actions perceived as overreach or sectarian have demonstrably harmed Iran's standing among significant segments of the Muslim and Arab world, creating resentment and fuelling regional instability. In Syria alone, half a million lives were lost and fifteen million people became refugees. This damage to its broader Islamic and Arab reputation is a serious strategic liability that cannot be ignored. Furthermore, brain drain and sanctions inflict deep suffering on ordinary Iranians, and the focus on security can come at the expense of domestic freedoms and development.
Strength through resilience
Despite these significant challenges, Iran demonstrates a system adapting and hardening under pressure. It is building a more diverse economic base out of necessity, maintaining formidable asymmetric deterrence and harnessing a potent narrative of national resistance deeply connected to its historical identity. Like the mythical Phoenix rising from ashes, Iran draws strength from adversity. Its ancient civilisation has weathered invasions, empires and revolutions. The current pressures, while intense, are forging a nation that is increasingly self-reliant, strategically embedded through complex networks and often internally galvanised against external foes. To assume this pressure will break Iran is to misunderstand its deep historical roots and its proven, pragmatic resilience. The outcome is more likely to be a nation tempered, adapted, and ultimately, stronger.
