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The National
23-05-2025
- Business
- The National
Iran should pay heed to Trump's changed Middle East priorities
US President Donald Trump's tour last week of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE was billed as diplomatic and economic engagement, complete with investment deals and high-profile meetings. But behind the pageantry, the visit offered a deeper message that the US is reasserting itself in the Gulf in favour of regional pragmatism. At the heart of this recalibration lies a strategic convergence between the US and its Gulf allies on two of the Middle East's most entrenched challenges – Iran and Syria. For years, Gulf capitals have expressed frustration with what they saw as Washington's erratic presence in the region characterised by rhetorical commitments without strategic consistency. Mr Trump's visit sought to reverse that perception by reinforcing a vision that prioritises economic engagement and strategic containment over open-ended military entanglements or unfulfilled and costly democracy-promotion causes. Nowhere was this clearer than in the interlinked Iranian and Syrian files. Mr Trump's visit signalled the most tangible shift on Syria. In a move that would have been unthinkable a year ago, the US President met with Syria's new President, Ahmad Al Shara. The meeting capped months of lobbying by Gulf states, who have increasingly advocated for a post-Assad settlement rooted in Arab stewardship. Following the encounter, Mr Trump pledged to lift US sanctions on Damascus, clearing a path for broader international reintegration and investment that could revitalise the Syrian economy. This US endorsement will certainly accelerate Gulf efforts that are already underway. Riyadh and Doha have announced a settlement of Syria's World Bank arrears, the UAE has pledged full support for the country's recovery and Doha reopened its embassy while offering to finance public-sector salaries. These moves reflect a shared calculus that re-establishing a functioning, centralised Syrian state, with Gulf support, is the most effective way to curb Iranian entrenchment in the Levant. On Iran, Mr Trump's position has been more ambiguous but no less significant. Upon returning to office, he swiftly reinstated the 'maximum pressure' campaign, reimposing sanctions and curtailing Iran's oil exports. The move is aimed at forcing Tehran into a new nuclear agreement. Critics argue that this strategy has only hardened Iran's resolve, pushing it to enrich uranium at higher levels and deepening regional instability. Yet the administration has made clear that it views these measures not as a way of collapsing the Iranian government, but as pressure points to extract more favourable terms for a bigger, better agreement than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was abandoned in 2018. At the same time, Mr Trump has reintroduced a diplomatic track with notable Gulf support. Indirect negotiations with Tehran began in March, following the delivery of a private letter hand delivered to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by the UAE. Mediated by Oman, the talks have focused on limiting uranium enrichment and intend to address regional de-escalation, which is key to broader regional security. For Gulf states, the US dual-track approach mirrors their own assessment that pressure alone is insufficient, and that some form of negotiated settlement is necessary to prevent the kind of escalation that could destabilise the region. Iran's return to indirect negotiations is driven by both internal and external pressures. Domestically, a struggling economy affected by high inflation and unemployment, a climate crisis and rising public discontent have narrowed the government's options. Fearful perhaps of another round of nationwide protests last seen in 2022-23 after the death of Mahsa Amini, Iran's supreme leader has come to support engagement with the Trump administration to stave off domestic unrest. Interestingly, Iran's leadership is appealing to Mr Trump's deal-making impulses by appearing open to US commercial opportunities. Amid these challenges, the issue of post-Khamenei succession is also hanging over domestic decision making. Externally, Mr Trump's warnings of potential military action and growing international isolation have added urgency to Tehran's calculations. Gulf states, while not central players in the nuclear talks, have positioned themselves as constructive mediators looking to stave off any confrontation between Iran and the US that would likely also include Israel. Seeing themselves as eventual economic investors should an agreement be reached, this time Gulf states are playing an important guarantor role. Still, the road to a new agreement is riddled with obstacles. Some members of Mr Trump's administration have insisted on a full halt to uranium enrichment. This is a demand Tehran has repeatedly rejected as a violation of its sovereign rights. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking as European signatories to the original JCPOA threaten to reimpose sanctions if no deal is reached before the October 'snapback' deadline. Both sides remain publicly entrenched, but diplomats say a principle-based framework that would lay the groundwork for a technical agreement is taking shape behind closed doors. While in the Gulf, Mr Trump struck an optimistic tone. He told reporters that Iran had 'sort of agreed' to terms limiting its nuclear activities, while reiterating that 'all options remain on the table'. Gulf leaders welcomed the message, interpreting it as a blend of deterrence and diplomacy. What they fear most is unpredictability, and Mr Trump's visit, despite his reputation for volatility that impacted Gulf states during his last administration, is seen as a step towards strategic coherence. Equally important was the way Mr Trump framed the region itself. Throughout his trip, he praised the Gulf's economic transformation – particularly Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and the UAE's diversification efforts – as models of responsible governance. In contrast, he castigated Iran's leadership as ideologically rigid and economically self-destructive. This rhetorical dichotomy was not incidental. It further reinforced a narrative that casts the Gulf as a pillar of regional stability and Iran as the source of disruption. In this sense, the Gulf visit was not just about optics or defence deals. It was a strategic statement about how the US sees the future of Middle East security. Mr Trump's endorsement of Gulf diplomatic initiatives, from Syria's political transition to the Iran talks, signals an American burden-sharing approach in action. This model will certainly be tested over the coming years and through future US electoral cycles. For now, much depends on the outcome of the Iran talks, the consolidation of Syria's new government and by the enduring impact of the ongoing war in Gaza that – unlike other crises – appears to have no end in sight.
The National
16-05-2025
- Politics
- The National
Trump's Middle East tour leaves Israel in 'confusion'
Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip US President Donald Trump's visit to the Middle East has left Israel in a position of uncertainty, highlighting differences over Iran and Syria while it presses on with its war in Gaza, experts have told The National. Mr Trump on Friday concluded a Gulf tour on which he met Syria's President Ahmad Al Shara, signed major economic deals worth trillions of dollars with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and attempted to tackle several crises and conflicts across the Middle East. He also set out a carrot-and-stick approach to Iran and raised the prospect of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and establishing ties with Israel, though that is yet to happen. "Mr Trump has not only left out Israel from his tour, which certainly conveys certain signals, but also shed light on policy differences between Washington and Tel Aviv over Syria and Iran," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East North Africa Programme at London's Chatham House. Mr Trump's visit "shows the close relationship between Gulf states and Washington and his willingness to listen to them on key regional issues", Ms Vakil told The National. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday he spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Syria and Iran while Mr Trump was touring the Gulf, and assured him of the solid ties between the two states. Mr Rubio "stressed the deep US commitment to its historic relationship with Israel and the ironclad US support for Israeli security", State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said. She said the two men expressed a "mutual commitment to make sure Iran never possesses a nuclear weapon". However, Mr Trump's trip leaves a confused picture behind in Israel, said Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the country's Institute for National Security Studies. 'There is a sort of confusion because on the one hand, politicians in Israel feel that they were thrown aside, but on the other hand, there is no doubt that some things that have been said or done by Mr Trump are deeply and well co-ordinated with Israel,' he said. The co-ordinated issues included the push to include Saudi Arabia and other Arab states in the Abraham Accords, Mr Michael told The National. But Mr Trump's move to lift US sanctions on Syria was a move that Israel has opposed. The visit also comes at a time where the US has been engaged in talks with Iran – mediated by Oman – with four rounds being held since April 12. Both sides have described the negotiations positively and a further round is expected soon. Reports have emerged of ties between Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu becoming strained as the two leaders are at odds over a possible Iranian nuclear deal. Israel has previously opposed making concessions to Tehran on the nuclear issue. Mr Trump said on Friday 'good things' would happen in the Gaza Strip over the next month. That was a change from his previous rhetoric, having threatened that "all hell is going to break out" if Hamas did not release Israeli hostages. 'We have to help the Palestinians, a lot of people are starving in Gaza,' said Mr Trump after boarding Air Force One in the UAE, without elaborating on what would happen. Earlier in the day, speaking at a business forum in Abu Dhabi, Mr Trump said he was looking to resolve a range of global crises, including Gaza. 'We're looking at Gaza,' he said. 'And we've got to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving. A lot of people are – there's a lot of bad things going on.' Israel has been pressing ahead with its brutal war on the besieged strip. No aid has entered since early March and the entire population of Gaza is at critical risk of famine, with half a million people facing starvation, a global hunger monitor warned this week. On Friday, it was reported that at least 250 people have been killed by the latest round Israeli strikes in Gaza. Israel was also taken by surprise when the US announced a ceasefire with Yemen's Houthi rebels early this month. The agreement mediated by Oman stipulates neither the US nor the Houthis would target the other, including US vessels in the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandeb. The deal did not feature Israel. Dina Esfindiary, Middle East geoeconomics lead at Bloomberg Economics, told The National the move shows 'the relationship between Mr Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu isn't as comfortable as many may think'. That the deal does not cover Israel is 'interesting in itself, they were not even told about it and were taken by surprise when they heard', she said.
