3 days ago
EPA report lets cat out of the bag on greenhouse gas emissions
Confirmation from the Environmental Protection Agency over the past few days that Ireland has gone backwards on its greenhouse gas emissions targets is hugely disappointing.
People are blue in the face, listening to government ministers and policy makers constantly highlighting the important of climate action and their commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Now however, the EPA has let the cat out of the bag.
Despite all that talk, the gap to where Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions must be by 2030 is widening.
And it is not widening by a little. It is widening by a lot.
The legally binding target is for Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions to be 51% lower, in 2030, than they were in 2018.
A year ago, EPA analysis suggested that if every realistic climate policy in the Climate Action Plan was delivered on time, ahead of 2030, it might be possible to cut emissions by 29%, at most.
Now, after receiving updates from Government departments and agencies, the EPA says the maximum reduction achievable, is only 23%.
Either number - a cut of 23% or 29% - represents a massive failure.
There is the global warming potential, and the climate damage, caused by not cutting emissions fast enough.
But there is also a huge cost to the taxpayer.
Recent analysis from the Irish Fiscal Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council suggested it could cost the taxpayer up to €26 billion for carbon credits by 2030, to make up the shortfall envisaged last year.
But now that the emissions gap is bigger, the bill to the taxpayer will be bigger too.
This feels like some kind of disaster unfolding in slow motion.
The focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation
The key reason is that despite all the talk from politicians there is not enough focus on implementing and delivering the climate-related policies the government has signed up to.
That is what Laura Burke, the Director General of the EPA, said when she launched the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections Report last Wednesday.
"This highlights the economy-wide effort needed to decarbonise our society and the focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation."
That was how she put it.
A key paragraph on page 10 of the EPA report, goes right to the heart of why we are going backwards.
Know first, that these latest emissions projections were done on the basis of the official "Climate Action Plan 2024", published at the end of 2023.
On page 10 the EPA report explains that: "Climate Action Plan 2025 is not specifically referenced in this report as it had yet to be published during the preparation phase of the 2024-2055 projections. A review was undertaken and there are no significant additional measures in CAP 2025 therefore no major omissions in these projections."
What this paragraph is saying is that, with so few years to go before the crucial 2030 deadline, an entire year has been allowed to pass without a single important climate initiative, or effort, having been added to the policy mix.
Yet there is no time to waste.
Notwithstanding the need to constantly come up with new policy initiatives, the number one thing should be to deliver, as quickly as possible, on the climate- related commitments already made.
Delaying difficult but inevitable changes only makes them harder to implement. It will not make them go away.
'Sustainable transport'
Climate Action Plan 2023 introduced a so-called "Avoid-Shift" policy on transport. The aim was to introduce behavioural change and sustainable transport measures to save 2 million tonnes of carbon emissions.
Central to that was a commitment to increase the price of petrol and diesel out to 2030 to encourage people to choose other modes of transport.
So far there is no sign of any willingness by Government to follow through on that.
But if they are not going to do it, what are they going to do instead to deliver the promised emissions reduction?
Last year the target was 945,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030. This year the EPA says the maximum possible is 640,750.
Many observers doubt even that amount can be achieved - especially since tax incentives to encourage electric vehicle purchases have been reduced in recent years.
What will the Government do to address that?
There is also a commitment in the Climate Action Plan to use behavioural and sustainable transport measures to engineer a reduction in total vehicle kilometres travelled. We are still waiting for that, and very much more.
Time is running out for climate action. We have one year less to go to an immovable deadline in 2030.
The clear message from the EPA this week is that government inaction is the core of the problem and the potential bill for the public, which is already enormous, is rising by the day.
