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Straits Times
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
What are the outlines and risks of a possible Ukraine peace deal?
A municipal worker stands in front of an apartment building heavily damaged a day before, by a Russian air strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the frontline town of Kostiantynivka, in Donetsk region, Ukraine May 8, 2025. Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS What are the outlines and risks of a possible Ukraine peace deal? Russia and Ukraine say they want to talk about peace so what are the contours of any potential peace deal - and what are the dangers? SECURITY GUARANTEE Ukraine, which was subject to a full-scale invasion in 2022 and saw Russia annex Crimea in 2014, says it needs security guarantees from the major powers - primarily the United States. It wants more than the 1994 Budapest Memorandum under which Russia, the U.S. and Britain agreed to respect Ukrainian sovereignty and refrain from the use of force against Ukraine. Under that deal, the powers simply promised to go to the United Nations Security Council if Ukraine was attacked. The problem, say sources involved in the discussions, is that any security guarantee that has teeth would lock the West into a potential future war with Russia - and any security deal without teeth would leave Ukraine exposed. Under draft proposals for a possible peace settlement seen by Reuters, diplomats spoke of a "robust security guarantee", including possibly an Article 5-like agreement. Article 5 of the NATO treaty commits allies to defend each other in the event of an attack, though Ukraine is not a member of the alliance. As part of a failed 2022 deal, Ukraine would have agreed to permanent neutrality in return for security guarantees from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, and other nations including Belarus, Canada, Germany, Israel, Poland and Turkey, according to a draft seen by Reuters. But officials in Kyiv say agreeing to Ukrainian neutrality is a red line they will not cross. NATO AND NEUTRALITY Russia has repeatedly said that possible NATO membership for Kyiv was a cause of the war, is unacceptable and that Ukraine must be neutral - with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy has said it is not for Moscow to decide Ukraine's alliances. At the 2008 Bucharest summit, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine and Georgia would one day become members. Ukraine in 2019 amended its constitution, committing to the path of full membership of NATO and the European Union. U.S. envoy General Keith Kellogg has said NATO membership for Ukraine is "off the table". President Donald Trump has said past U.S. support for Ukraine's membership of NATO was a cause of the war. In 2022, Ukraine and Russia discussed permanent neutrality. Russia wanted limits on the Ukrainian military, according to a copy of a potential agreement reviewed by Reuters. Ukraine staunchly opposes the idea of curbs to the size and capabilities of its armed forces. Russia has said it has no objections to Ukraine seeking EU membership, though some members of the bloc could oppose Kyiv's bid. TERRITORY Moscow controls about a fifth of Ukraine and says the territory is now formally part of Russia, a position most countries do not accept. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Russian forces control almost all of Luhansk, and more than 70% of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, according to Russian estimates. Russia also controls a sliver of Kharkiv region. In Putin's most detailed public proposals for peace, outlined in June 2024, he said Ukraine would have to withdraw from the entirety of those regions - so even from areas not currently under Russian control. Under a draft peace plan crafted by the Trump administration, the U.S. would de jure recognise Russian control of Crimea, and de facto recognise Russian control of Luhansk and parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Kherson. Ukraine would regain territory in Kharkiv region, while the U.S. would control and administer Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is currently controlled by Russia. Kyiv says that legally recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied areas is out of the question and would violate Ukraine's constitution, but that territorial matters could be discussed at talks once a ceasefire is in place. "The major issues here are the regions, the nuclear plant, it's how the Ukrainians are able to use the Dnieper River and get out to the ocean," Trump envoy Steve Witkoff told Breitbart News last week. SANCTIONS Russia wants Western sanctions lifted but is sceptical that they will be lifted soon. Even if the U.S. lifted sanctions, EU and other Western sanctions - such as those imposed by Australia, Britain, Canada and Japan - could remain for years to come. Ukraine wants the sanctions to remain in place. Reuters has reported that the U.S. government is studying ways it could ease sanctions on Russia's energy sector as part of a broad plan to enable Washington to deliver swift relief if Moscow agrees to end the Ukraine war. OIL AND GAS Trump has suggested that Putin, who leads the world's second largest oil exporter, might be more inclined to resolve the Ukraine war following a recent drop in oil prices, though the Kremlin said national interests trump oil prices. Still, some diplomats have speculated that the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia are seeking lower oil prices as part of a bigger grand bargain that involves issues from the Middle East to Ukraine. Earlier this month, Reuters reported that officials from Washington and Moscow have held discussions about the U.S. helping to revive Russian gas sales to Europe. CEASEFIRE European powers and Ukraine demand Russia agree to a ceasefire before talks but Moscow says a ceasefire will only work once verification issues are sorted out. Kyiv says Moscow is playing for time. RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE The reconstruction of Ukraine will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and European powers want to use some of the Russian sovereign assets frozen in the West to help Kyiv. Russia says that is unacceptable. Russia could agree to using $300 billion of sovereign assets frozen in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine but will insist that part of the money is spent on the one-fifth of the country that Moscow's forces control, Reuters reported in February. Ukraine has said it wants all the $300 billion of seized assets to be poured into post-war reconstruction. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
What happened the last time Russia and Ukraine held peace talks?
A municipal worker stands in front of an apartment building heavily damaged a day before, by a Russian air strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the frontline town of Kostiantynivka, in Donetsk region, Ukraine May 8, 2025. Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS Russia and Ukraine may be on the point of holding peace talks for the first time since the early weeks of the war. Here is a short guide to what was on the table back in 2022, the last time the two countries held peace talks, and why those talks broke down. WHERE AND WHEN DID NEGOTIATIONS TAKE PLACE? Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Belarus on February 28, 2022, four days after Russia's full-scale invasion. They later held meetings by video link before meeting again in person in Istanbul on March 29. After that they exchanged multiple drafts until mid-April, before the talks broke down. WHAT WAS DISCUSSED? - According to draft documents published last year by the New York Times, Ukraine was prepared to become a permanently neutral, non-aligned and nuclear-free state, with no foreign troops or weapons on its soil. These terms would have barred it from joining NATO but allowed for the possibility of EU membership. - In return, Ukraine would have received security guarantees from a group of countries including the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - Britain, China, Russia, the United States and France. - A partially agreed draft said the guarantor states - including Russia - would respect and observe Ukraine's independence and sovereignty and refrain from the threat or use of force against it. - The draft proposed holding talks over a period of 10-15 years regarding the status of Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. WHAT WERE THE KEY POINTS OF DISAGREEMENT? - If Ukraine was attacked, it wanted the guarantors to provide assistance that could include "closing airspace over Ukraine, providing necessary weapons, using armed force in order to restore and subsequently maintain the security of Ukraine as a permanently neutral state". But Russia insisted any decision must be agreed by all guarantor states - meaning Moscow would have a veto. - The two sides disagreed sharply on the future size of Ukraine's armed forces and its military arsenal. For example, Kyiv was ready to agree to cap the size of its forces at 250,000, with 800 tanks and a maximum missile firing range of 280 km (174 miles). Russia was demanding limits on Ukraine of 85,000 personnel, 342 tanks and a 40 km missile range. - Moscow demanded that Ukraine recognise Russian as an official state language and end what it considers to be discrimination against Russian-speakers, something Ukraine denies. - Russia demanded the repeal of what it called "laws of Ukraine on Nazification and glorification of Nazism". Ukraine rejects the Nazism charge as absurd. WHY DID THE TALKS BREAK DOWN? By April 2022, the situation on the battlefield appeared to be turning in Ukraine's favour. It had beaten back Russian forces from around Kyiv and shown evidence to the world of alleged Russian war crimes that provoked international condemnation, although Moscow denied them. Western countries were scaling up military aid to Kyiv and escalating sanctions on Moscow - all factors that made Ukraine less inclined to accede to Russian demands, according to a detailed account of the peace talks in the journal Foreign Affairs by historian Sergey Radchenko and analyst Samuel Charap. ARE THE 2022 DRAFTS STILL RELEVANT? U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said in February that the so-called Istanbul protocols offered "guideposts" for negotiations between the warring sides. A Kremlin aide said on Sunday that the peace talks being proposed now should take into account the 2022 negotiations and the fact that Russia now controls nearly a fifth of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in December 2024 that there were no "Istanbul agreements", only talks in which Ukraine had responded to an "ultimatum" by Russia but did not sign anything. WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE FAILED TALKS? The original negotiations were focused mainly on sovereignty issues, but Russia's stance has hardened since then to include specific demands on territory. President Vladimir Putin said in June 2024 that Ukraine must withdraw entirely from four regions of the country - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - that Russia has claimed as its own but only partly controls. Ukraine says it will never legally recognise Russian occupation of Ukrainian land. At the same time, Zelenskiy has acknowledged that his forces are unable at this point to take back all the lost territory and that it may be recovered over time by diplomatic means. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Japan Today
28-04-2025
- Politics
- Japan Today
Russia declares 72-hour ceasefire in Ukraine for next week to mark Victory Day in World War II
In this photo provided by Ukraine's 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier looks out of a shelter on the anti-drone firing position in Kostyantynivka, the site of the heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Thursday, April 24, 2025. (Iryna Rybakova/Ukraine's 93rd Mechanized Brigade via AP). By ILLIA NOVIKOV Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday declared a unilateral 72-hour ceasefire next week in Ukraine to mark Victory Day in World War II as the U.S. presses for a deal to end the 3-year-old war. Kyiv insisted on a longer and immediate truce. The Kremlin said the truce, ordered on 'humanitarian grounds,' will run from the start of May 8 and last through the end of May 10 to mark Moscow's defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 — Russia's biggest secular holiday. Ukraine, which has previously agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal of a full 30-day ceasefire, dismissed Putin's move as window dressing. 'If Russia truly wants peace, it must cease fire immediately,' Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said, according to the ministry. He emphasized that Kyiv is ready for a 'lasting, reliable, and complete ceasefire' for at least 30 full days. 'Why wait for May 8? If we can cease fire now from any date and for 30 days — so that it is real, and not just for a parade,' he said without specifying whether Ukraine would be ready to accept the Moscow-proposed truce. The Kremlin had urged Ukraine to follow suit. 'Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example,' it said, warning that 'in case of violations of the ceasefire by the Ukrainian side, the Russian armed forces will give an adequate and efficient response." Putin previously announced a unilateral 30-hour Easter ceasefire and Ukraine voiced readiness to reciprocate any genuine truce at the time, but it said Russian attacks continued. Moscow, in turn, accused Ukraine of failing to halt its attacks. Russia and Ukraine had also earlier pledged to observe a 30-day halt on strikes on energy infrastructure that was brokered by the Trump administration, but they repeatedly accused each other of massive violations until the measure expired. The truce attempts underlined the massive challenges for monitoring any possible halt to hostilities along the more than 1,000-kilometer (over 600-mile) line of contact. Up until now, Putin had refused to accept a complete unconditional ceasefire, linking it to a halt in Western arms supplies to Ukraine and Ukraine's mobilization effort. The Kremlin reaffirmed that 'the Russian side again declares its readiness for peace talks without preconditions aimed at removing the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis and constructive cooperation with international partners.' Just before the ceasefire announcement, Ukraine and Russia targeted each other with long-range strikes. Russia's drone attack early Monday damaged an infrastructure facility in Cherkasy, central Ukraine, disrupting gas supplies to households in the city, Mayor Anatolii Bondarenko said. The Russian Defense Ministry said its forces downed 119 Ukrainian drones overnight, most of them over Russia's Bryansk border region. In Ukraine, air raid sirens rang out across the country Monday morning. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage. The outcome of a push by Trump's administration to swiftly end the fighting, which has cost tens of thousands of lives, remains unclear, clouded by conflicting claims and doubts about how far each side might be willing to compromise amid deep hostility and mistrust. The clock is ticking on Washington's engagement in efforts to resolve Europe's biggest conflict since World War II. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that this week would be 'very critical.' The U.S. needs to 'make a determination about whether this is an endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in,' he said on NBC's 'Meet the Press.' American military aid has been crucial for Ukraine's war effort, and further help could be at risk if the Trump administration walks away from attempts to end the war. Trump said over the weekend he harbors doubts about Putin's sincerity in pursuing a deal, as Russian forces have continued to strike civilian areas of Ukraine with cruise and ballistic missiles while the talks have proceeded. But on Friday, Trump described a brokered settlement on the war as 'close.' Western European officials have accused the Kremlin of dragging its feet on peace talks so that Russia's larger forces, which have battlefield momentum, can seize more Ukrainian land. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed the war in a phone call Sunday with Rubio, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. They focused on 'consolidating the emerging prerequisites for starting negotiations,' the statement said, without elaborating. Russia has effectively rejected a U.S. proposal for an immediate and full 30-day halt in the fighting by imposing far-reaching conditions. Ukraine has accepted it, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says. A French diplomatic official said over the weekend that Trump, Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed 'to pursue in the coming days the work of convergence' to obtain 'a solid ceasefire.' The diplomat said a truce is a 'prior condition for a peace negotiation that respects the interest of Ukraine and the Europeans.' The official was not authorized to be publicly identified in accordance with French presidential policy. Ukraine, meanwhile, has balked at surrendering land to Russia in return for peace, which Washington has indicated could be necessary. A key point of leverage for Ukraine could be a deal with Washington that grants access to Ukraine's critical mineral wealth. Ukraine and the U.S. have made progress on a mineral agreement, with both sides agreeing that American aid provided so far to Kyiv will not be taken into account under the terms of the deal, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Sunday. 'We have good progress,' he said after talks with U.S. Treasury Under Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington. 'The main thing is that we clearly defined our red lines: The agreement must comply with Ukraine's Constitution, legislation, and European commitments, and must be ratified by Parliament,' Shmyhal said. Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022 has developed a significant international dimension, further complicating negotiations. Putin on Monday thanked North Korea for sending what the U.S. estimates are thousands of troops to help defeat Ukraine, as well as allegedly supplying artillery ammunition. Iran has also helped Russia in the war, with Shahed drones, and China has sold Russia machinery and microelectronics that Moscow can use to make weapons, Western officials say. The U.S. and Europe have been Kyiv's biggest backers. © Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
Toronto Sun
27-04-2025
- Politics
- Toronto Sun
Russia launches nearly 150 drones against Ukraine as Trump doubts Putin's desire for peace
Published Apr 27, 2025 • 2 minute read In this photo provided by Ukraine's 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade press service, a soldier talks on the phone in a shelter in Kostyantynivka, the site of the heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Thursday, April 24, 2025. Photo by Iryna Rybakova/Ukraine's 93rd Mechanized Brigade via AP / AP KYIV, Ukraine — Russia launched a sweeping drone assault and airstrikes across Ukraine overnight into Sunday, killing at least four people, officials said, after U.S. President Donald Trump cast doubt over Russian President Vladimir Putin's willingness to end the war. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account Three people died and four were wounded Sunday morning in airstrikes on Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region, the regional prosecutor's office said. Another person died and a 14-year-old girl was wounded in a drone attack on the city of Pavlohrad in the Dnipropetrovsk region, which was hit for the third consecutive night, local Gov. Serhii Lysak said. The attacks came hours after Russia claimed to have regained control over the remaining parts of the Kursk region, which Ukrainian forces seized in a surprise incursion last August. Ukrainian officials said the fighting in Kursk was still ongoing. Trump said Saturday that he doubts Putin wants to end the more than three-year war in Ukraine, expressing new skepticism that a peace deal can be reached soon. Only a day earlier, Trump had said Ukraine and Russia were ' very close to a deal.' Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days,' Trump wrote in a social media post as he flew back to the United States after attending Pope Francis' funeral at the Vatican, where he met briefly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump also hinted at further sanctions against Russia. The Trump-Zelenskyy conversation on the sidelines of the pope's funeral was the first face-to-face encounter between the two leaders since they argued during a heated Oval Office meeting at the White House in late February. Russia fired 149 exploding drones and decoys in the latest wave of attacks, the Ukrainian air force said, adding that 57 were intercepted and another 67 jammed. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. One person was wounded in drone attacks on the Odesa region and one other in the city of Zhytomyr. Four people were also wounded in a Russian airstrike on the city of Kherson on Sunday morning, according to local officials. Russia's Defence Ministry said Sunday that air defences shot down five Ukrainian drones in the border region of Bryansk, as well as three drones over the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. Five people were wounded when Ukrainian forces shelled the city of Horlivka in the partially occupied Donetsk region, the city's Russian-installed Mayor Ivan Prikhodko said. Canada Sunshine Girls Sports Columnists Columnists
