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India Today
10-05-2025
- Politics
- India Today
Before ceasefire came India's Israel-like shift in policy towards Pakistan
After three days of escalating tensions, India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire on Saturday, bringing the conflict to an end. The ceasefire, mediated by the US, ended India's 'Operation Sindoor' against Pakistan, but with dire warnings for the future: any misadventure by terrorists and their patrons in the future will be an act of war against also defined the new normal for the jihadis, and an ironic wish-fulfilment for the launch of 'Operation Sindoor,' the whole of Pakistan had been worrying about military strikes on terror infrastructure becoming the "new normal" for India. Well, here is the good news for Pakistan: by collectively thinking about India's terror doctrine, it manifested its destiny, serendipitously deferred by the ceasefire. Pakistan got what it subconsciously wished for on Saturday morning when India announced that any future act of terrorism targeting Indian interests, will be treated as an Act of War. The decision, made at a high-level security meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is an "Israel-like" shift in its policy. It comes amid an escalating military conflict between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the terror strike in Pahalgam, leading to the killing of 26 AS REVERED GUESTSIndia's policy on terrorism had so far been defined by a mix of caution, dialogue and restrained action. In the past, it had reacted to attacks by terrorists primarily as an internal law and order problem, letting the investigating agencies deal with when the attacks pointed to an external hand, primarily Pakistan's, India sought the cooperation of the concerned government, supporting its case with evidence and dossiers. To India's frustration and anger, this quest for justice through diplomacy rarely yielded results. In almost every case, the probe was thwarted—the standard ruse being inconclusive evidence, or complete denial of the role of any organisation or person from across the country. In the rare case when action was taken, the guilty were not handed over to India. On the pretext of trying them in their own court, the concerned government lodged them in high-security facilities with five-star glaring examples of this lack of cooperation and doublespeak are Masood Azhar, the founder of Jaish-e-Mohammad, and Hafiz Saeed. In spite of their hand in some of the biggest terror strikes in India since 2000, they were provided safe haven in Pakistan, with the fiat to operate with impunity. Even when Saeed, the Lashkar-e-Taiba chief declared an international terrorist, was tried and sentenced, he was hosted by the ISI as a revered any AS AN ACT OF WARWith the government deciding to treat terror as an act of war, the long and frustrating road to justice through diplomacy has been shut. India will now retaliate against terror with the full spectrum of force available, including precision strikes on terrorists, their headquarters, patrons and financiers. In short: An 'Operation Sindoor' kind of retaliation will be the new decision to not deal with terrorism only as a crime handled by cops and special agencies signals its new resolve. It shows India is keen to tear off the tag of 'soft state'—an impression that was created by its patient and diplomatic approach to deal with terrorists and their backers in the past. It wants to adopt a policy of zero tolerance and retaliate with the firmness and alacrity that's the hallmark of the Israeli and US policy. Both these countries have often struck preemptively to deal with threats. In the aftermath of a terror attack, they have resorted to precision strikes, targeted killings and even a full-scale war–the 2002 attack on Iraq by the US, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war being prime examples of this MESSAGE FOR PAKISTANFor the past five decades, Pakistan has pursued the policy of breeding terrorists in its backyard under the nuclear umbrella. In spite of India's measured approach, and when presented with irrefutable evidence, Pakistan has been intractable, even shamelessly defiant. It has been testing India's resolve with both covert and overt support to terrorism on Indian policy has been defined by the belief that India would operate below the diplomatic threshold in dealing with terrorists inside Pak territory. Islamabad's confidence has been rooted in its doctrine of nuclear-blackmail, a card it has used to deter should have realised that India is no longer willing to surrender to the nuclear-blackmail when the Narendra Modi government launched strategic strikes across the Line of Control after the attack on an Army camp in Pulwama. It should have been reminded of India's diminishing tolerance when India struck Balakot to avenge the 2019 terror attack in the precision strikes on terror infrastructure at nine locations, including Muridke and Bahawalpur, Pakistan has realised that this will be the new normal for India. Its journalists and security experts have been wondering how Islamabad would deal with India if every terror attack follows strategic bombing of targets in answer should be evident to them: Every single life lost in India will be avenged. If Pakistan continues to support terror, it should be ready to be at war with India—a destiny they'd be advised not to ceasefire is a reprieve for Pak, a time to rethink its policy, and its InTrending Reel


The Hindu
07-05-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
Operation Sindoor: Before the Missiles Fly, Someone Should Check the Budget
Published : May 07, 2025 16:16 IST - 6 MINS READ One of the most dangerous things about a wildfire is that it can start from almost anything—a lightning strike, extreme heat, a forgotten campfire, or even a discarded cigarette. What can often change the intensity and fury of a wildfire are the weather conditions. And sometimes the wildfire can smoulder for a long time, even an entire season. The weather in South Asia is grim, and the terror attack in Pahalgam has brought relations between India and Pakistan to a 'wildfire'-like moment. There is an uncontrolled nature to the public discourse, and the climate is primed for combustion, mutual suspicion, and calls for forceful military action. So far, events have been marked by high-pitched rhetoric baying for a sharp response and a swift war. The first round of responses are in place: halting formal trade ties to what are fairly low formal trade volumes with Pakistan, a downgrading of diplomatic relations, suspension of a major treaty governing water sharing—with the details of how this will be done still unclear—and the banning of Pakistani YouTube channels, including several prominent news outlets. The second round has been a series of missile strikes against Pakistan, a marked spike in tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Things are moving fast. A nationwide civil defence drill was announced that would include air raid sirens and blackout protocols, with officials urging citizens to keep torches, first aid kits and cash ready. Also Read | Pahalgam: The grief is real; so is the theatre Experts have pointed to both nations now having a higher risk appetite for initiating conflict and escalating it. The financial cost of a war is also being determined. While one think tank has warned of the 'financial costs, [hurt] human lives and policy losses' even low-intensity warfare could have, the closest benchmark is the Kargil conflict in 2002, where India reportedly spent Rs.14.6 billion per day while Pakistan spent close to Rs.3.7 billion per day. Other numbers are being assessed: India's handsome foreign exchange reserves of over $650 billion that could help cushion against a rise in military costs, shocks to the stock market in case of potential stock market outflows if there were to be a full-fledged war between the two neighbours, and the possibility of a wartime cess or surcharge on tax-paying individuals. All of this is already visible in a two-year high on volatility for the rupee that has one eye on trade tariff gyrations and the other on capital flight in the wake of an actual war. The Israel model The most striking note in the wake of the heinous militant attack in Pahalgam has been calls for India to model Israel. April 22 is to India what October 7 was to Israel, said one television commentator, while a former senior police official called for an 'Israel-like response'. What does an Israel-like response cost, and what does violent conflict do to a nation's economy? In the most recent Union Budget, the government increased its defence budget to Rs.6.21 lakh crore. It remains modest compared to China's 2024 defence budget of over $200 billion, for example. Israel's military expenditure surged by 65 per cent to $46.5 billion in 2024. Defence accounted for 8.8 per cent of GDP, an increase of 135 per cent from the allocation for defence in 2015, which was an already high 5.4 per cent of GDP. India's defence allocation remains below 2 per cent of its GDP—even lower than the levels of 2.4 per cent in FY21 (Financial Year of 2021). Sharp military aggression is also an intensely front-loaded cost; the Israeli government spent close to $6 billion in the December that followed the October 7 attack alone. There are other costs that have run longer and deeper across the Israeli citizenry. The 2025 state budget for Israel included an austerity package with steep spending cuts to offset ballooning war costs and tax measures including freezing income tax brackets and an increase in the supertax levied on the country's wealthiest. If India were to boost its military spend, it would find itself in a tricky bind. The most recent Union Budget was an admission that consumer spending needed urgent attention, and a tax stimulus was the answer. It is still unclear if there has been a meaningful improvement in eroding real purchasing power or in slowing personal loan growth. However, that tax stimulus has come with a downside; it means the government will lose 1 trillion rupees annually, which in turn will impact its revenues and restrict its ability to spend. There are other economic wounds from the war for Israel. Airfares have surged—airline companies in India are already bracing themselves for a rise in fuel costs because of longer journey times, tourism numbers for Israel have plunged (a given now for Jammu and Kashmir but perhaps something that other States will begin to see), and salaries remain stagnant, a running challenge for India alongside high unemployment numbers. The economic costs of conflict are clear. In a fragile phase of economic growth and recovery, Pakistan risks undoing all the progress it has made on improving fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability. And while India may appear relatively stable, the cost of prolonged conflict and troop mobilisation will begin to tell on its growth as well. Conflicts also divert resources from developmental projects to defence spending. In the coming weeks, the questions that Finance and Defence Ministries should jointly be assessing are: first, what is the cost of military preparations that preclude war, and how fit for purpose are India's conventional and non-conventional military forces? Second, what is the long-term cost to growth in a fragile economic period where countries across the world are facing an exceptional level of policy and trade whiplashes—geopolitical tensions will be a potentially lethal mix to this cocktail of uncertainty. And third, what could costs escalate to, in the event of a powerful third party entering this hostility between two nations? Also Read | The Indus Waters Treaty and the options ahead Generations of Indians have never experienced war and are now being trained for emergency situations. But they have seen a period of steady and clear economic deceleration that has left the country with gaping income inequality, our widest ever. If Israel is the model for military aggression, then the financial cost of that level of armed conflict must also be reckoned with. Because just as wildfires can either be contained or spread with fury, the fires that burn near communities can become dangerous and even deadly if they grow out of control. Mitali Mukherjee is the Director of the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, University of Oxford. She is a political economy journalist with more than two decades of experience in TV, print and digital journalism. Mitali has co-founded two start-ups that focussed on civil society and financial literacy and her key areas of interest are gender and climate change.


Hindustan Times
26-04-2025
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
‘Non-violence our nature, but to teach lesson…': RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat on Pahalgam terror attack
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat on Saturday made a veiled reference to the Pahalgam terror attack and stated that while non-violence was an important tenet of Hinduism, addressing threats from 'hooligans' was also part of the religion. Follow LIVE updates on the Pahalgam terror attack here During a book launch programme, Bhagwat said,"Non-violence is our nature, our value. Some people will not change; no matter what you do, they will keep troubling the world, so what to do about it?" as quoted by ANI news agency. Also Read: 'Modi bunkers' back in use as tensions rise along LoC after Pahalgam terror attack In the aftermath of a terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam, which took the lives of 26 civilians, the RSS chief used an anecdote from the Ramayana to make a veiled reference towards enforcing strict action against the perpetrators. 'Non-violence is our religion. Teaching a lesson to hooligans is also our religion. We never insult or harm our neighbours. But still, if someone turns to evil, what is the other option? The duty of the king is to protect the people; the king must perform his duty,' he said. Also Read: BJP leader, in controversial remark, vows 'Israel-like revenge' for Pahalgam attack Earlier, the RSS chief had reacted to the tragic incident and said, "Our soldiers or our people have never killed anyone by asking about their religion. The fanatics who killed people by asking about their religion, Hindus, would never do this. That is why the country should be strong." During the event to promote the book "The Hindu Manifesto, Mohan Bhagwat also stressed the need to understand Sanatan Dharma in true sense and elaborated on the principles of Hinduism. He also stated that the caste system went against the core tenets of Hinduism, saying, 'Nowhere does Hindu scriptures preach untouchability. Nobody is 'oonch' or 'neech' (hierarchy). It never says that one work is big and the other is small... If you see oonch-neech (hierarchy), it is adharma (irreligious). It's compassionless behaviour.' The RSS chief also said, 'If you want to recognise the truth. Not everyone has the power to judge the whole truth alone. Truth is that which is a little more than what everyone else has combined.' He added that Hinduism must coexist with other religions in the world.


Middle East Eye
25-04-2025
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
Experts warn of 'impunity' amidst Indian calls to implement 'Israel playbook' in Kashmir
The comparison between India's control over Kashmir and Israel's occupation of Palestine has long been made by academics and activists. Now, prominent Indian figures are invoking the connection themselves. Following an attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir, there have been widespread calls for an "Israel-like" retaliation by law enforcement, high-profile commentators, and members of the public. As the Indian response unfolds, experts warned to Middle East Eye that the implementation of the "Israel playbook" will create impunity around the state's treatment of Kashmiris. On Tuesday, gunmen opened fire on a group of tourists near central Pahalgam, killing at least 26 tourists, primarily from India. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters A group calling itself the "Resistance Front" – affiliated with Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba – issued statements claiming responsibility for the attack, although they are still to be verified. While media footage and eyewitness accounts from the incident have captured the role of Kashmiri locals in protecting tourists immediately after the attack, many members of the Indian public have called for a vengeful response against both Kashmiris and Muslims, referencing Israel's ongoing war on Gaza, in which over 51,000 Palestinians have been killed. Professor Mohamad Junaid from the Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, whose work focuses on state violence and activism in Kashmir, told MEE that the social media rhetoric being amplified by the "Hindu right-wing" is adopted from "anti-Muslim rhetoric from anti-Palestinian, anti-immigrant, and anti-minority discourses in the West". Many of these calls are coming from organisations and higher-profile journalists. The Stop Hindu Hate Advocacy Network (SHHAN) - based in the US - called for the "[flattening] of Kashmir," comparing Indian-controlled Kashmir to Gaza. Kashmir should be flattened like Gaza. Both don't deserve freedom. — Stop Hindu Hate Advocacy Network (SHHAN) (@HinduHate) April 22, 2025 Arnab Goswami drew widespread attention for announcing on his show on the right-wing YouTube channel Republic World that: "22 of April is to India what 7 October was to the Israelis." A guest featured on the programme added: "We demand we turn Pakistan into Gaza." Indian columnist Sanjay Dixit had a similar message for viewers of YouTube channel Jaipur Dialogues. The Ultimate Solution to Kashmir Terrorism Problem is destruction of Pakistan While this might take time, Surgical Strikes and Missile Attacks on Border Areas inside Pakistan should be a Contineous Affair India needs to adopt the Israel Model to finish Pakistan once and for… — The Jaipur Dialogues (@JaipurDialogues) April 22, 2025 The rhetoric has not been limited to talk show hosts and X users and has been invoked in mainstream Indian media coverage and by members of law enforcement, cementing a parallel between the Indian and Israeli states. Zee News, a prominent Indian news network, described the Israeli ambassador Reuven Azar's response as a statement from India's "closest friend, Israel". Muslims fear potential 'Israel-like' retaliation after Kashmir attack Read More » Former director general of police of Jammu and Kashmir S.P Vaid said that "we must respond like Israel," as reported by Hindi newspaper Jagran. Human rights groups have documented the ways in which the Police of Jammu and Kashmir, run by India's Ministry of Home Affairs, have led raids and interrogations against journalists, and maintained extrajudicial detentions of Kashmiris. Likewise, an opinion piece in The Print by former Indian army general MM Naravane called on India to 'borrow' from Israeli tactics. "It is time for India to bare its fangs and not fall prey to calls for restraint," he wrote. Experts have widely described Indian-controlled Kashmir as "the world's most militarised zone". Many of these military personnel are trained by Israel forces. An overview of the Israel model This is not the first time that the "Israel model" has been invoked in the context of Indian-controlled Kashmir. In June 2024, Indian author Anand Ranganathan called for an 'Israel-like solution' for Kashmir, nearly a year into Israel's war on Gaza. Indian consul to New York City Sandeep Chakravorty made similar analogies in 2019. Lawyer and author Suchitra Vijayan told MEE that the "invocation of 'Israel-style' tactics by Indian politicians, media, and internet users is not incidental". How India is implementing the 'Israel model' in Kashmir Read More » Rather, she added, "it reflects a strategic and ideological alignment between two ethnonationalist states - India and Israel - both of which have normalised prolonged military occupation, demographic engineering, and the criminalisation of dissent". Vijayan explained that this relationship is not just ideological, but extends to the 'shared infrastructures of violence: surveillance, digital repression, population control, and policing regimes that are increasingly modelled on each other's practices". India has long been the largest purchaser of Israeli weapons, while Indian-made Hermes drones have been used in Israel's war on Gaza. Research also show that Israeli drones and surveillance technologies are deployed in Kashmir. Human rights groups and academics have documented the shared approaches of both countries military and police – such as punitive home demolitions, extrajudicial killings, and arbitrary detentions, employed by the Israeli state against Palestinians, and the Indian state against Kashmiris. The use of these tactics has escalated following the revocation of Kashmir's special status in 2019, where the Indian government launched a major crackdown on dissent, targeting journalists and civil society. According to Kashmiri academic Hafsa Kanjwal, the Indian government's 2019 decision - which enables Indians to purchase land in Indian-controlled Kashmir – paves the way for similar "settler-colonial projects" in India and Israel, forcing "demographic change". Junaid said that by invoking the parallels between the two states, the Hindu right-wing aims to garner "the same kind of impunity to kill and destroy Muslim and Kashmiri lives that it believes Israel has". "They are feeding into the hate and dehumanisation of Palestinians and Kashmiris and using the power of the state to produce spectacles of domination," he added. At the time of writing, Indian news source Maktoob Media has reported the detention of at least 1500 Kashmiris, as well as incidents of Kashmiri students being violently targeted by Hindu nationalist mobs across India. "Israel's ability to act with impunity has created a global precedent, and India is watching, adopting, and adapting," Vijayan said.