Latest news with #IsraelAirstrike
Forbes
5 hours ago
- Politics
- Forbes
Israel-Iran War Can Alter Middle East Power Balance More Than Gulf War
People gather on a hill to watch smoke rising in the distance from an Israeli airstrike in Tehran, ... More Iran, on June 14, 2025. Iran's foreign minister said the country would respond "decisively and proportionally" to a wave of attacks that Israel launched beginning in the early hours of June 13. The attacks targeted multiple military, scientific and residential locations, as well as senior government officials. (Photo by Khoshiran / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by KHOSHIRAN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images) Less than three days since its launch, Israel's extensive Operation Rising Lion air campaign has already proven strategically devastating for Iran. Even if the incumbent regime in Tehran vanished tomorrow, it would take years for Iran to restore military capabilities that the Israeli Air Force decimated overnight with seeming impunity. Thus, in many ways, it's conceivable that Rising Lion will alter the military balance of power in the Middle East more so than the 1991 Persian Gulf War. The Israeli Air Force launched its devastating attacks early Friday, with waves of over 200 fourth- and fifth-generation fighter jets hitting targets across the country. They assassinated Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists in targeted strikes and heavily bombed Iran's main nuclear facilities and military bases. Iran immediately appeared powerless to do anything about it. By Saturday, the Israeli military announced it had established complete freedom of operation in the airspace around Iran's enormous metropolis, Tehran, over 1,000 miles from Tel Aviv, potentially putting Iran's leadership right in Israel's crosshairs. While the operation, which could continue for days or even weeks, has just started, and the smoke has yet to clear, it's already plausible that this is the most significant strategic shift in the regional balance of power since 1991. Television viewers around the world were awed by real-time coverage of that war and of the technology, particularly the stealth bomber and smart bombs the U.S.-led coalition used to smash Iraq's enormous army in mere weeks. The war forced Iraq to evacuate Kuwait, which it had invaded and occupied the previous year. Coalition air power systemically destroyed Iraqi control and communications and paralyzed the entire country by destroying much of its civilian and electricity infrastructure. Decades later, Iraqis still did not have 24-hour electricity due to that brief but intensely destructive air campaign. Within mere hours, Israel has done the same to Iran's command and control and systematically destroyed and degraded its military arsenal and strategic weapons. It's already targeting economic infrastructure, such as oil and gas facilities, which it had previously avoided targeting in its tit-for-tat exchanges of fire with Tehran last year. These strikes could paralyze Iran for years to come. Crippling sanctions and chronic mismanagement already saw Iranian experiencing electricity shortages in the months leading up to this devastating war. Aside from precision drone strikes carried out by covert operatives inside Iran, Israel is mainly relying on airpower to achieve its objectives, which is unsurprising given the distance between the two countries. Still, the campaign has caused more destruction across the country than Saddam Hussein's Iraq managed to in the opening salvos of his 1980 invasion of the western Iranian Khuzstan province, the last time Iran faced a conventional military attack. While unconfirmed Iranian reports claim that Tehran managed to shoot down some of the Israeli jets, the fact that Israeli F-16s are operating so deep inside Iranian airspace is noteworthy. It shows how thoroughly Israel has degraded strategic and even tactical Iranian air defenses. It's worth remembering that when the U.S. Air Force attacked Iraqi nuclear installations in Baghdad, it lost some F-16s and had to rely on radar-evading F-117 Nighthawks. Furthermore, U.S. jets bombing Iraq that year had access to Saudi mega bases south of Iraq and super-carriers in nearby seas. Israeli jets are flying an average of 1,000 miles for each strike. During Operation Desert Storm (1991) F-16A Fighting Falcon, F-15E Strike Eagle, and F-15C Eagle ... More fighter jets fly over Kuwait's burning oil fields. (Photo by: Photo12/Ann Ronan Picture Library/Universal Images Group via Getty Images) Interestingly, the Middle East Eye outlet reported that Israel is using unique, modified extended-range F-35s which have enabled Israel's stealth strike fighters, the spearhead of its air force, to attack Iran and return home without in-flight refueling. As speculated in this space in 2021, it was likely that the fuel tanks Israel was building for its F-35s were conformal, which would not reduce its critical stealthiness like drop tanks would. Iran stayed out of the 1991 Gulf War, ignoring overflights of American Tomahawk cruise missiles in its airspace. It reaped some benefits when Saddam ordered some of his most prized French and Soviet fighter jets to fly to Iran for safekeeping, where they were duly confiscated and integrated into the Iranian Air Force. Aside from its acquisition of Soviet MiG-29A Fulcrum fighters during that period, Iran hasn't upgraded its air force since then, resulting in it posing a negligible threat to this Israeli juggernaut. Tehran did manage to retaliate against Israel from the first day of the attack with ballistic missiles. Iran has a much larger and more advanced stockpile of these missiles compared to Saddam's arsenal of modified Scuds that targeted Israel and Saudi Arabia in 1991. At the same time, Israel also has much more advanced multilayered air defenses than it did in 1991, as outlined here in April 2024 when Iran targeted Israel directly with its ballistic missiles for the first-ever time. Iranian missiles have already caused more death and destruction in Israel than Saddam's arsenal. Nevertheless, these missile strikes are highly unlikely to deter further Israeli attacks or cause as much damage as Israel is doing to Iran. The Gulf War inflicted a staggering defeat on Saddam's army, which once numbered over a million troops and had fought Iran to a standstill in enormous battles at the end of the Iran-Iraq War three years earlier. The ensuing power vacuum saw Iraq militarily neutered and unable to project power or seriously threaten regional countries. During this period, Israel, which hitherto deemed Saddam's Iraq as a more severe threat than the emergent Islamic Republic and consequently cooperated with the latter on an ad-hoc basis, began to see Iran as its biggest threat. It's worth remembering that Netanyahu has been warning about the imminent dangers of a nuclear Iran since at least 1995. Politically, there are some parallels between today's war and its Gulf War predecessor. U.S. President George H.W. Bush was justifiably criticized and condemned when he seemingly encouraged Iraqis to revolt and depose Saddam Hussein. Iraqi Shia and Kurds did so, falsely believing America would send in the cavalry. Saddam brutally repressed them using helicopter gunships as American forces next door in the Gulf stood by, only later establishing no-fly zones to protect these vulnerable populations from additional attacks. The oppressed Shia Arab majority, in particular, felt betrayed and remained distrustful of America when it later invaded Iraq outright and deposed Hussein in 2003. Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is openly encouraging Iranians to overthrow their regime. However, it's not clear whether Israel has any plans to support or coordinate any ensuing uprising directly, nor whether it will help a revolt succeed by eliminating the Iranian leadership. It's unclear whether Israel would establish and patrol no-fly zones if Tehran assembled its remaining helicopters and fighter jets to suppress any Kurdish revolt, as this regime did shortly after seizing power in 1979. As Bush assembled his multinational coalition to confront Hussein, he spoke about the emergence of a New World Order. Ultimately, the Gulf War was a war for restoring the status quo in the region, which it largely succeeded in doing. Fascinating recent academic research has detailed how Saddam Hussein feared the emergent post-Cold War unipolar world after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He estimated that new world and American hegemony would last five years, during which the U.S. and Israel would take the opportunity to attack Iraq. Invading Kuwait was his gambit. It spectacularly backfired. In recent years, Iranian officials have repeatedly advocated a multipolar world and the end of the days of America standing as the sole superpower. Like Russia with Ukraine and China with Taiwan, Iran seemingly believes a multipolar world would benefit its strategic interests in the region and hegemony over weak Arab states, especially if it could help bring about the withdrawal of the U.S. military. Hamas's infamous October 7, 2023, attack against Israel was at least partially aimed at preventing a U.S.-advocated Israel-Saudi peace deal that could realign the region and potentially further sideline the Palestinians. That war triggered Israel's devastating destruction of the Gaza Strip and sequential destruction of Iran's militia proxies, most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, whose devastating defeat last September-October empowered Islamist rebels to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria in December. All these actions paved the way for the ongoing attack on Iran today. It seems increasingly likely that what we are witnessing is a more significant and consequential shift in the balance of power unfolding in the Middle East than in 1991 or at any other time in recent generations. And it will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications for future generations in the region and beyond.
New York Times
7 hours ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Who is the new head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps?
Iran named Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi as the new head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps after his predecessor, Gen. Hossein Salami, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Friday. Here's what to know about the new leader of a group created to defend Iran's Islamic system. Brig. Gen. Vahidi is best known outside Iran as a suspect in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people and wounded hundreds more. Prosecutors in Argentina have issued arrest warrants for five Iranian officials, including General Vahidi, for 'conceiving, planning, financing and executing' the attack. Interpol issued an alert, known as a Red Notice, in 2007 to inform the international law enforcement community that a national arrest warrant was outstanding. General Vahidi was born in 1958 in the central Iranian city of Shiraz. During the Iranian revolution in 1979, he had been studying electronic engineering at Shiraz University and around that time he joined the I.R.G.C., as well as revolutionary committees, according to Iranian media. He later received a Ph.D. in strategic studies. During the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, which began in 1980, he held a number of senior security roles. He went on to lead the I.R.G.C.'s Quds Force, which specializes in intelligence and directs operations outside Iran, from 1988 until 1998. From 2005, General Vahidi served as deputy defense minister and he was made defense minister in 2009, holding the post until 2013. He was also Iran's interior minister for three years until last August. The United States, the European Union, Canada and Britain have imposed sanctions on General Vahidi for human rights violations.
Wall Street Journal
2 days ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Israel's Nuclear Good Deed Against Iran
Israel's air campaign against Iran's nuclear program on Friday morning local time is a watershed moment for the Middle East and, if successful, a favor for the world. The Jewish state deserves American support as the strikes continue. 'We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment program,' Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in remarks early Friday. He disclosed an attack on the nuclear facility at Natanz, targeted strikes on nuclear scientists working on weaponization, and attacks on Iran's ballistic-missile program. Iranian media reported that several top scientists and generals, including Iran's chief of staff, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief and IRGC drone and missile chiefs, were killed.
Forbes
3 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
S&P 500 To Crash Post Israel Attack On Iran?
TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 02: Commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami ... More meets with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in the Iranian capital Tehran on June 2, 2025. It was reported that Hossein Salami was killed during Israel's attacks on Iran. (Photo by Iranian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images) U.S. stock futures experienced declines following Israel's airstrike on Iran, with S&P 500 futures dropping approximately 1.6%. This immediate market response reflects the index's sensitivity to geopolitical developments that threaten global stability. The attack prompted Israel's defense minister to declare a special state of emergency, while Iran has vowed retaliation for the strike on its nuclear program. The Wall Street Journal reported that the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard was killed in the attack. These escalating tensions have created uncertainty that typically weighs heavily on equity markets. On a separate note, see – Boeing Stock Faces Fresh Crisis After 787 Dreamliner Crash. The geopolitical crisis has triggered a flight to traditional safe-haven assets. Oil prices surged 9% following the attack, while gold prices also moved higher as investors sought refuge from equity market volatility. This pattern demonstrates how the S&P 500 and broader markets often move inversely to commodities during periods of heightened global tension. The current situation could echo the market dynamics observed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Initially, the S&P 500 fell more than 7% in the days and weeks following that conflict's onset, driven by widespread investor fear about geopolitical instability and its economic implications. However, the index demonstrated remarkable resilience. Despite the dramatic initial sell-off, the S&P 500 recovered to pre-invasion levels within a month, even as oil prices remained elevated. This recovery highlighted the market's ability to absorb geopolitical shocks when direct economic exposure remains limited. Also, see the last six market crashes compared. The S&P 500 is expected to face increased volatility and potential downward pressure in the immediate term. If Iran retaliates and tensions escalate further, the index could experience additional selling pressure as investors remain risk-averse. However, historical precedent suggests the market's capacity for recovery once initial uncertainty subsides. The S&P 500's track record shows that while geopolitical events create short-term disruption, the index often normalizes as investors assess the actual economic impact versus perceived threats. The key factor will be whether ongoing tensions in the Middle East remain contained or escalate into a broader regional conflict with more significant global economic implications. So ask yourself the question: if you want to hold on to your positions, or will you panic and sell if the market falls 2%, or 5%, or see even lower levels? Holding on to your stocks in a falling market is not always easy. Trefis works with Empirical Asset – a Boston area wealth manager, whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns even during the 2008-09 timeframe, when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
