11 hours ago
What happens if Trump says no to war with Iran?
'We will be the first nation to become extinct through tiredness'.
This is the very Israeli joke doing the rounds in Tel Aviv where no night for the last five has gone uninterrupted without at least one dash to the bomb shelter.
It's a nice way of shrugging off danger and giving a nod to the country's resilience, while at the same time acknowledging the deep anxiety here.
Think back to sitting in the sun in your garden during the first weeks of the Covid lockdown unsure of whether you'll need to be intubated and you'll get the vibe.
With jokes out of the way, two big questions dominate conversation here – one spoken, one left hanging awkwardly.
Will the US join in the assault on Iran? And what happens if it doesn't?
For the moment, the vast majority of Israelis believe it is only a matter of time before Trump joins in.
Some think he and Benjamin Netanyahu have been in cahoots all along, others that the mercurial Israeli prime minister has left Trump with little option other than to attack.
They point to the build up of the US war machine in the region, the power of the Israeli lobby in Washington and the 'moral' case for action.
The phrase 'regime change' has not been used with such fervour since the build up to the invasion of Iraq in early part of 2003.
'Tougher than Iraq'
Every US president needs a Cheney, goes the quip, and Bibi is Trump's Dick.
There is a logic to all this and the fact that the US has not yet got involved is no indication that it will not do so.
Iran is a vast, mountainous and faraway country with a population of 92 million (just ask Senator Ted Cruz). It also has a standing army of 610,000, rising to 960,000 with reserves.
Taking on regime change in such a place is no small task – tougher even than Iraq – and the Pentagon will want weeks, perhaps months, to get its pieces in place before acting.
US generals would not just have to prepare for retaliatory strikes against their own troops in the region (some 40,000 to 50,000) but assure its allies in the Gulf that it would protect their gas and oil fields, not to mention the shipping lanes they rely on.
Let's face it, that recent trade tour Trump undertook in Saudi, the UAE and Qatar will have been for nothing if the region's oil industry goes up in smoke.
Then there are the political risks for Trump to consider, not to mention legacy.
The US was engaged in Iraq for nearly nine years and he owes much of his rise to power to the 'America First' promise and his rejection of 'endless conflict'.
It's no wonder his MAGA base is showing signs of splitting over the issue.
But what if Trump decides that war is not worth the risk. What if he rejects the TACO taunts, saying he never wanted the war?
That today – along with the ballistic missiles – is what most Israelis are losing sleep over.
