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One U.S. State Is ‘Overdue' for a Major Earthquake, Study Finds
A new study published in the journal JGR Solid Earth has found that one U.S. state is 'overdue' for an earthquake. Lead author Vasiliki Mouslopoulou believes that the information, while chilling, presents an opportunity to correct the course. "The main message to take away is that everyone could benefit, including California," Mouslopoulou told Live Science.
Mouslopoulou and her co-authors collected data from California as well as four other earthquake-prone regions: the Basin and Range province, which encompasses most of Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and northwestern Mexico; Japan; Greece; and New Zealand. Earthquake scientists use this data to determine which areas might be at risk for a future incident by measuring the period since the last serious earthquake to the average amount of time between two big earthquakes throughout history. An area is considered to be 'overdue' for an earthquake if the amount of time since the last quake exceeds by 50 years the average amount of time between two large study found that roughly 45 percent of the fault lines in California are overdue for a massive earthquake when compared to less than 20 percent in the other regions studied. Mouslopoulou posits that the other models might be influenced by California's erratic earthquake patterns, which could prove problematic for predicting earthquakes in the future. At this point, data suggests that California won't remain in this pattern forever. If the state segues into a more active phase of earthquakes, Mouslopoulou believes it's likely the state will eventually align with faults around the globe.
Mouslopoulou will next compare California's fast faults, such as San Andreas which generates earthquakes in 'supercycles,' or clusters, with other fast-slip systems across the globe, like those in Turkey or off the coast of Chile. "It will be very interesting to see how these fast-moving faults and regions compared to the Californian faults," Mouslopoulou said.
One U.S. State Is 'Overdue' for a Major Earthquake, Study Finds first appeared on Men's Journal on Jun 13, 2025
