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BBC News
13-05-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
How a row over the Senedd is dividing the Welsh Tories
Step on to the pages of Conservative Home – or on to social media - in the last few weeks and you'll might have found a row playing out about the future of the Welsh anonymous blogger, Jack Welsh, accused Senedd leader Darren Millar of a "war" on the party's Welsh Tory devo-sceptic base, and called for him to reason? An interview with Welsh-language news website, Golwg360, where Millar was reported to have said that it should come "as no surprise" that any Conservative candidate must be supportive of implication, according to some grassroots Conservative members, is that you cannot stand for the party at the next Senedd election if you don't believe in the institution's continued row has spilled over onto posts on the social network formerly known as Twitter – X – where some Conservative activists have attacked the party's Cardiff Bay leadership. The policy has not been confirmed in firm terms, but it hasn't precisely been denied by senior figures in the party Wales has been told by the party's Welsh chairman that while candidates can hold views privately, they would be expected not to campaign on such an anti-Senedd Tory activist – a councillor – has claimed on the record that he was removed from an approved list of potential candidates for his views. A party spokesperson says he was never on the list for the 2026 some outside the party the whole row might seem odd. If you want to stand for the Senedd why would you scrap it?Even if you campaigned in a Senedd election to abolish the parliament, the powers to do that lie in Westminster and not Cardiff despite the pro-devolution leaning of the party's current leadership, there have always been mixed views on the issue among Conservatives, who are currently picking who can stand for the next Welsh Parliament due in May 2026. It dates back to the 1990s, when the Conservatives campaigned against the establishment of the then-National Assembly for took time for the party's attitude to change, which it did under the leadership of Nick Bourne. David Cameron and Theresa May's governments both supported legislation that strengthened the current position of the Welsh Tory leadership in the Bay is to support the existence of the institution, albeit opposing it's a devo-sceptic wing of the party has persisted, and some think that the Senedd could be a platform to campaign for constitutional change in Wales have played down how big a deal it is in the voluntary party - one senior Welsh Tory said before the row began that it is really a vocal minority who feel that the last election some Tory candidates – including one that became an MS, Joel James – had made statements supporting abolishing the Welsh himself posted, then deleted, a message on X last year about getting "rid" of the party's stance on devolution was part of the row that led to the exit of previous Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Andrew RT Davies, after he sent a Senedd message showing he asked people at an agricultural show what they thought of devolution. Some of those who are complaining compare the issue to how anti-EU MPs were able to be selected when the party officially supported membership of the European comes shortly after a grassroots row about party rules which have ensured that incumbent MSs can be more easily re-selected; and a failed bid by some of those who want a discussion on devolution opened with the members to take over the voluntary also an ongoing debate about where the future of the party lies - after a general election which saw all Welsh Tory MPs lose their seats, and recent polling which suggests no major reversal in the party's fortune so recent Senedd poll published has seen the party behind Labour, Plaid and Reform, in fourth place. The party's leadership has been keen to stress that you would expect candidates to support the party's told the BBC's Walescast last week that there is an "expectation that anyone who stands as a Welsh Conservative candidate should subscribe to Welsh Conservative policies"."That is something which all political parties expect of their candidates. It's perfectly normal. It's what happens at every single election.""Should we be offering scrapping the Senedd or anything like that? Absolutely not.""I recognise, though, that people are frustrated with what they perceive to be the lack of delivery, and that is a result of a Labour government."Cardiff councillor Joel Williams has been named as one individual who has been stopped from being a potential candidate for the reasons told BBC Wales that he believed he had been removed from an approved list of people the party sees as prospective candidates, because of his views on devolution. He stood for the Senedd in 2021 and in said: "I believe the Senedd should be abolished as it has clearly failed the people of Wales since its inception."However, Darren Millar believes Senedd candidates must support the Senedd; I respectfully disagree with him and I'm not prepared to modify my beliefs for personal advancement.""I acknowledge and respect my views are not universally shared however the majority of Conservative voters in Wales and our membership share my views on devolution."He said Wales had "gone into reverse since the establishment of the Senedd" and argued that the prospect of Millar's Tories "doing a deal with Welsh nationalists... goes against the very core and binding beliefs of Conservatives; that our commitment to the Union of the United Kingdom is unwavering".Bernard Gentry, Welsh Conservative chairman, disputed that Williams had been removed from a list – and said that a "new list" was being produced for the 2026 wouldn't comment on whether Williams had been refused a place on the list because of his views on devolution."What he believes – that's up to him," said Gentry."I can't comment on any individual case, it would be highly inappropriate for me to do so."But the idea that people have been removed from a list is incorrect because the list is being compiled and is still being compiled."A Senedd Tory spokesperson said: "Joel Williams has never been on the 2026 Senedd candidates list."Asked about the broader issue, Gentry told BBC Wales there had been "two or three people who had been making all sorts of comments online".He added: "I'm not saying you have to change your view or belief."What we're saying is if we're campaigning and people are candidates then they've got to sign up the manifesto."That means you don't go off and campaign on issues that aren't part of the remit of these elections."Gentry said the party would not be "campaigning on matters that are not to do with the powers of the Senedd" - such as devolution. 'Huge mistake' David Fouweather, a senior Newport councillor and former voluntary official, told BBC Wales: "The Conservative Party has always been a broad church. We had people that were Eurosceptic and for Europe in the same party working together."I think Darren Millar has made a huge mistake. He has split the party at a time when it needs to be more united than ever."There is a good percentage of the membership who are very much against devolution."To ask people now to go out on the streets, knock doors, deliver leaflets, make telephone calls, when they've been sort of disenfranchised by Darren Millar is a bit rich."Fouweather said there had "always been a problem with getting Conservative voters out for the Senedd because our people don't support it, they don't like it."He speculated that Reform could "mop up" Tory support if they offered a referendum on the Senedd.
Mint
24-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
What analysts miss in concalls while chasing guidance
The Indian markets have bounced back impressively over the past two weeks. A pause on reciprocal tariffs , helped fuel this rally. But it's not the time to get carried away. There's still a lot in flux. Rather than chasing potential winners in a global trade shuffle, we're focusing on businesses that are more insulated from political drama. And while smallcaps had a great week, we would advise against getting overexposed. Stick to your asset allocation, stay selective, take a slow, staggered approach, and respect the margin of safety while buying stocks. In markets like these, protecting your capital is just as important as growing it. The markets now seem to be getting over the tariff blues, and focusing on earnings season . The result season is the busiest time for analysts. It keeps them occupied with year on year and sequential growth, deviation analysis, and extrapolating future performance based on what happened in the quarter. They also ask bookkeeping questions to the management and pressure them to give growth guidance during conference calls or concalls. These concalls with the managements offer a great opportunity to get a sense of their vision, to assess their transparency when the going gets tough, and their focus and priorities–long-term sustainability or short-term targets. These calls can help analysts understand the broader industry environment and the company's competitive positioning. However, such concalls also have some limitations. They can defeat the purpose of better understanding and analysis of the business when the analysts resort to upgrading target prices and valuation multiples based on a single quarter's performance or when they take management's guidance too seriously. But this quest for precision and the short term obsession can be futile and farcical. GE (General Electric), along with its superstar CEO Jack Welsh, is a case in point. Under his leadership, GE's business was driven by short-term targets. Perform or perish was the guiding mantra. Obsessed with Wall Street's earnings expectations, the company met and surpassed consensus estimates every quarter for almost a decade (1995-2004). And the stock price followed. However, this growth came at a huge cost and with accounting gimmicks, as the subsequent years revealed. In the pursuit of growth led by acquisitions, the company became too big to manage or be nimble. Its unregulated finance arm– GE Capital–that lifted the performance - turned out to be the biggest chink in the company's armour. When the subprime crisis struck, the credit market dried up. The money-spinning finance arm thus became its undoing. Sharing lofty guidance, even meeting them in the short term, did not help the business or its investors. Some businesses are owner-operator driven, where managements neither offer nor falls for this bait. Then there are appointed managers who love to spew out quarterly guidance. Always be cautious of the precise ones in the short term. The pressure to meet them and street expectations is one of the biggest reasons for poor capital allocation decisions. A company may still meet short-term guidance and dole out to the concerned appointed manager his short-term performance-linked incentives. However, this does little good for the business in the long term. You could deploy the best of forecasting skills, and top them up with fancy DCF analysis, but a business won't follow the trajectory as projected in excel. Throw in a bit of Red Sea crisis, a pandemic, a war, a liquidity surge, or a regulator suddenly coming up with a ban, or a whimsical president... and it won't matter how much precision you were working with. It's best to be humble in this profession and aim to be roughly right than precisely wrong. That includes admitting that no matter how hard we try, not all the variables can be factored in precisely. There will always be 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknows' in practice. Instead of trying to be accurate about that percentage point in growth or margins, it's better to assess if we are investing in the right management team that's operating in the right industry from an investment perspective. In fundamental analysis, one needs a sense of the trajectory. But the focus should be more on the expected direction, understanding the downsides, and ensuring a margin of safety. Focus on what's important–the industry or opportunity size, potential downsides (including from tariffs), balance sheet quality, and the management quality. Also, keep in mind the time horizon of the investment and your personal asset allocation. Finally, welcome volatility and uncertainty. It's what is not yet known and factored in, that provides opportunities to outperform the market. Happy Investing. Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only. It is not a stock recommendation and should not be treated as such. This article is syndicated from
