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Newsweek
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Matt Gaetz's Chances of Winning Florida Governor Race, According to Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Former Representative Matt Gaetz is speculated to be considering a run in Florida's 2026 gubernatorial race, but polls suggest other Republicans have carved out early leads. Newsweek reached out to Gaetz for comment via email. Why It Matters Gaetz's entry into the field could upend the competition for the Republican nomination and test the limits of President Donald Trump's power. Gaetz remains popular among many conservatives in the state, but Trump has endorsed Representative Byron Donalds in the race. The election would give Gaetz a chance to return to politics after leaving Congress to pursue his nomination for U.S. attorney general. Gaetz later withdrew from consideration after accusations of sexual misconduct, which Gaetz has denied, that threatened to tank his confirmation. What To Know The latest poll of the Republican field, conducted by the James Madison Institute, did not place Gaetz as a leading figure but highlighted the evolving Republican field where endorsements and name recognition are key factors that could shape the eventual outcome of the race. The poll, conducted by Targoz Market Research from May 5 to 7, indicated that Florida first lady Casey DeSantis has an early lead with 29 percent, compared to Donalds' 28 percent and Gaetz's 10 percent support. When informed about Trump's endorsement, however, Donalds' support grew to 44 percent, while DeSantis' share of the vote fell to 25 percent. Donalds is the only Republican to officially declare his intention of running, although rumors continue to swirl about DeSantis and Gaetz, who has not ruled out a run, NBC News reported on Wednesday. Gaetz's history as a Trump ally and national media figure on One America News Network could give him a base among the state's conservative primary base. A Gaetz victory would be a "long shot," J. Edwin Benton, professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida, told Newsweek. Benton said Gaetz would appeal to "very conservative" Republican primary voters, but Donalds is an early favorite due to the Trump endorsement. "I think that Donalds having been endorsed by President Trump would hurt Gaetz tremendously," he said. Former Representative Matt Gaetz speaks to a reporter in Washington, D.C., on April 19, 2024. Former Representative Matt Gaetz speaks to a reporter in Washington, D.C., on April 19, would bring "excess baggage that no campaign needs," and accusations of wrongdoing, even without an indictment, would "weigh very heavily against him," he said. Polling results and campaign fundraising place Donalds as the current frontrunner. He has reportedly raised more than $14 million, according to NBC News. An April James Madison Institute poll showed Gaetz winning 8 percent of Republican primary voters, compared to DeSantis' 28 percent and Donalds' 22 percent. Florida has shifted toward Republicans in recent years. Although former President Barack Obama won the state in both of his runs, it has proven elusive for Democrats ever since. Trump carried it in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In his most recent election, he won by 13 points. Gaetz told The Tampa Bay Times in January he is considering a run. "I have a compelling vision for the state. I understand how to fix the insurance problem, and it's not to hand the keys to the state over to the insurance industry. If I run, I would be the most pro-consumer candidate on the Republican side," he said. What People Are Saying Kevin Wagner, associate dean of research and creative achievement at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek: "Matt Gaetz has the advantage of name recognition in Florida, and he would likely have a vocal base of support in a Republican Primary. While he would likely not have a lot of crossover appeal for Democrats, whomever wins the GOP primary will be a strong favorite to win in the general election, as Florida has trended Republican over the last several election cycles. "There are some challenges for Gaetz. He's likely to face other popular and well funded Republican candidates. He is also no longer in the office, and the public can quickly forget about leaders who are not in the news. President Trump's support will be important, and the President has already expressed support for Representative Byron Donalds. Without President Trump's backing Gaetz would face a difficult challenge as he would need strong support from President Trump's voters to win." Former Representative Matt Gaetz told NBC News: "Casey is right about one thing: It's very early. Many tectonic plates can shift in Florida in the next year or so." What Happens Next Gaetz has not formally entered the 2026 Florida governor's race, and no major public poll has included him as a leading candidate. His chances may shift depending on the final field, polling, and the timing of his potential announcement as Florida's legislative session concludes and candidates make their intentions clear.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Survey shows more Floridians support a property tax cut vs. sales tax
Front of the Florida Capitol Building, taken on April 25, 2025. (Photo by Mitch Perry/Florida Phoenix) Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis continued his full-fledged campaign on Friday to get the Florida Legislature to back his idea of providing immediate targeted property tax relief this year to Floridians, and for lawmakers to jettison their proposed sales tax cut. Speaking in Tampa earlier this week, the governor declared that any tax package sent to his desk that features a sales tax component would be 'dead on arrival.' That comment has now led to an apparent breakdown between legislative leaders in trying to come together on the state budget, which forced them late last week to extend the legislative session into June. DeSantis and Hernando County Republican Sen. Blaise Ingoglia said in Tampa this week that they have encountered very few members of the public who say they'd rather have a cut in the sales tax vs. property taxes, and a public opinion survey of Floridians released on Friday seems to back up the anecdotal evidence. In the survey of 1,200 Floridians taken in April for the James Madison Institute, 46% said they support eliminating property taxes while 32% supported reducing sales taxes. Another 12% said they preferred keeping things status quo. When asked whether they support eliminating property taxes by expanding the homestead exemption for primary residents, 65% said yes while just 24% opposed that proposal. Another 11% were unsure. However, following that question up, 60% said that they were concerned about how elimination of property taxes would affect potential cuts to local services, such as law enforcement and public schools. Only 33% of voters said that they were not concerned about that outcome. If policymakers want to eliminate property taxes, they would need to raise $43 billion (or $2,015 per Floridian) to maintain public services now funded with property tax revenue, the Florida Policy Institute recently wrote in a report titled, 'A Risky Proposition.' House Speaker Daniel Perez said last week that because the Florida Constitution prohibits the Legislature from exercising direct control over property taxes, any such reform would need to go before the voters on the November 2026 ballot. That's why, he said, there is a need for his Select Committee on Property Taxes to study the issue. The 37 lawmakers on the committee will prepare a Joint Resolution by this fall to allow lawmakers to put the question on the ballot next year. It would require 60% support to pass. DeSantis has said that the committee has been set up to fail, noting that Perez appointed several 'far-left Democrats' who the governor predicts will end up voting against such a proposal. The James Madison Institute survey was conducted by Targoz Market Research of 1,200 voters, 43% of whom said they were Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 23% independent voters. It has a +/- margin of error of 2.77%. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
Newsweek
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Democrats' Chances of Beating GOP in Florida's 2026 Governor Election—Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Republicans in Florida's 2026 gubernatorial race have carved out an early, yet narrow lead as Democrats plot a comeback in the conservative-trending Sunshine State. Why It Matters Florida, once the nation's premier battleground, shifted toward Republicans in recent elections with President Donald Trump carrying it by 13 points against former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. The state has become a bastion of conservative leadership over the past decade, but Democrats are hoping to make it competitive in the midterms, particularly if Trump's falling approval rating drags down Republicans next year. What to Know A new poll from the James Madison Institute, which surveyed 1,200 registered Florida voters from May 5 to May 7, showed potential candidate Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, a Democrat who has not formally said she is running, trailing Republicans by a single-digit margin. The poll shows the race could end up being closer than last year's presidential contest. Representative Byron Donalds, who is running and was endorsed by Trump, led Levine Cava by four points in a hypothetical matchup (38 percent to 34 percent), with State Senator Jason Pizzo, who last month left the Democratic Party, winning five percent support. Twenty-three percent were still undecided. Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, who hasn't said she plans to run, led Levine Cava by four points as well (39 percent to 35 percent). In that scenario, Pizzo won support from eight percent of respondents, while 18 percent were still undecided. Representative Byron Donalds arrives at a House Republican candidates forum on October 23, 2023 in Washington, D.C. Representative Byron Donalds arrives at a House Republican candidates forum on October 23, 2023 in Washington, reached out to Donalds' campaign, Governor Ron DeSantis' office and the Florida Democratic Party for comment via email on Friday. In the Republican primary, 29 percent said they would be inclined to vote for Casey DeSantis, while 28 percent leaned toward Donalds. Ten percent said they'd vote for former Representative Matt Gaetz, seven percent said they'd vote for former Lieutenant governor Janette Nunez and five percent leaned toward Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, though none of them have confirmed they are running. After learning about Trump's endorsement, Republicans were more likely to back Donalds over DeSantis (44 percent to 25 percent), according to the poll. On the Democratic side, Levine Cava held a lead with 32 percent. Former Representative Gwen Graham followed with 13 percent, while former Representative David Jolly received 10 percent support and former State Senator Lauren Book received 7 percent. The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 2.77 percentage points. Another recent survey found that a plurality of Floridians is not happy with the Trump administration. The Civiqs poll shows Trump's net approval rating in Florida was -1 point on May 7, with 48 percent approving of the job he is doing and 49 percent disapproving. What People Are Saying Donalds on CBN News, according to Florida Politics: "I have the support of President Donald Trump. I have the support of [Florida's GOP] Senator Rick Scott. I have the support of most of the Republican congressional delegation. And we're picking up steam every single day. I've been crisscrossing the state nonstop for the last six weeks, except when I'm here doing my job here in Washington." Casey DeSantis on whether she'll run for governor, in remarks reported by the Florida Phoenix: "We'll see." What Happens Next The gubernatorial field remains unclear, with potentially major candidates on both sides yet to declare. Fundraising, endorsements and shifting voter sentiment will likely define the race in the months ahead as Democrats hope to rebuild their brand in the Sunshine State.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
New poll of GOP gov race shows the power of Trump endorsement in Donalds-Casey DeSantis matchup
Graphic from James Madison Institute poll A public opinion survey shows U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leading Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, 44%-25, in the race for the Republican nomination for governor in 2026. That's from a new poll conducted for the James Madison Institute (JMI) in the middle of May among 516 Republican voters. That's after those Republicans were informed that Donalds has already been endorsed by President Donald Trump for the governor's race. The poll says initial results from GOP voters surveyed before learning of the Trump backing had Ms. DeSantis narrowly leading Donalds by a single point, 29%-28%. Ms. DeSantis is not a declared candidate yet for governor, but she has not dismissed the possibility of running next year to succeed her husband, Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited from running again. She has faced more media attention over the past month than at any other time as First Lady over the past six years. That's because of reports about potential misappropriation of funds involving Hope Florida and the Hope Florida Foundation, the social welfare charity that she has been associated with. Gov. DeSantis has accused House Republicans, the 'liberal media,' and Democrats of launching 'baseless smears against Hope Florida and by extension myself and the First Lady,' he said at a press conference in Kissimmee last month. Donalds announced his candidacy for governor on Feb. 26, five days after Trump endorsed him. Since his announcement, Donalds has reported raising more than $12 million as of the end of March, with most of that money flowing into his affiliated political committee. The James Madison Institute commissioned two public polls, one in April and one in early May. The April poll results were taken when South Florida Sen. Jason Pizzo was still in the Democratic Party and a potential nominee for that party's gubernatorial nomination next year. The May poll shows former Northwest Florida U.S. Rep. and now cable news pundit Matt Gaetz in third place at 10%; Jeanette Nuñez, the former lieutenant governor and now interim president of Florida International University, in fourth place with 9% support. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is next with 5%. As mentioned above, the JMI poll surveyed voters in both April and May. In April, it surveyed 464 Democratic voters, who gave Pizzo 41% support. In distant second place at that time was Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava with 15%. Former Republican U.S. Rep. turned Democrat David Jolly was next with 7%, followed by former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham at 5%. Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon and former South Florida state Sen. Lauren Book were next at 4%. South Florida state Sen. Shevrin Jones was at 2% and House Leader Fentrice Driskell was at 1%. But with Pizzo's departure, a follow-up survey in May of 396 Democratic voters showed Mayor Levine Cava now leads the Democrats with 32%. Gwen Graham is next at 13%, followed by Jolly at 10% and former state Sen. Lauren Book at 7%. However, 20% were undecided. The survey in both months was conducted by Targoz Market Research of 1,200 voters, 43% of whom said they were Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 23% independent voters. It has a +/- margin of error of 2.77%. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Poll: Trump's endorsement boosts Byron Donalds over Casey DeSantis for Florida governor
Among potential GOP candidates for Florida governor in 2026, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads First Lady Casey DeSantis by 19 percentage points, 44%–25%, according to a new statewide poll of registered voters by a conservative Tallahassee-based think tank. But that support came after the James Madison Institute's sample of 516 registered Republican voters, out of 1,200 registered voters altogether, were told President Donald Trump had endorsed Donalds – the only officially-declared leading Republican in the race. Before being told of the Trump endorsement, Mrs. DeSantis was statistically tied with Donalds, of Naples, at 29% and 28% respectively. The margin of error of the survey, which was conducted May 5 to 7, is 2.77%. "Trump's endorsement carries huge weight among Republican voters, but half (didn't) know it happened" till they were told, the institute's press release said. (The poll results were released to reporters the evening of May 8 but embargoed till May 9.) Casey DeSantis and Gov. Ron DeSantis have been buffeted for weeks by news reports related to her signature Hope Florida initiative, billed as a conservative alternative to traditional welfare programs. That controversy wasn't brought up to poll respondents, according to the released poll questions. A panel of the GOP-led Florida House and news outlets have been digging into a $10 million donation directed to the program's fundraising arm, and whether that money then was improperly diverted – amounting to a sort of campaign-finance money laundering. The DeSantises have strenuously denied any wrongdoing. Moreover, the closest Mrs. DeSantis has come to confirming her much speculated-about candidacy was saying, 'We'll see,' when asked at a conservative summit in Maryland in March. Before that, her husband threw cold water on the idea of a bid, telling Fox News' Laura Ingraham in February that it's 'not something that she's seeking out ... but it's flattering.' From February: Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis most favored among potential GOP candidates, poll shows The institute actually commissioned two public opinion polls, one in April and the latest in early May. But the April poll didn't make clear to respondents that Trump gave the thumbs up to Donalds. The earlier poll also was conducted before South Florida state Sen. Jason Pizzo left the Democratic Party. Pizzo's announcement that he was stepping down as Senate Democratic leader and becoming a 'no party affiliated' lawmaker came on the floor of the Senate on April 24, two days after that poll closed. In April, he polled at a whopping 42% 'among Democrats or those leaning Democratic.' Still undeclared, he's teased his own run for months. Now he can't run in Florida's closed primary system. Asking again in May, the JMI poll found Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava jumped to 32% among the poll's 396 registered Democrats from 15% the month before. And former Tallahassee congresswoman Gwen Graham, most recently an education official in the Biden administration, went up to 13% support from 5%. Another former Florida congressman, Republican-turned-Democrat David Jolly of Pinellas County, went from 9% support in April to 10% in May. Of all those polled in May, a combined 85% said they "always" or "nearly always" vote in elections. Also, 43% identified as Republican, 33% as Democratic and 23% as "independent." But 34% overall identified as "moderate." In one hypothetical general election matchup, Donalds overtook Levine Cava 38%–34%, with Pizzo garnering 5% as an independent candidate and 23% saying they were undecided. In another, Casey DeSantis beats Levine Cava 39%–35%, with Pizzo at 8% and undecideds at 18%. "DeSantis and Donalds are polling close to 40%, roughly the share of registered Republicans in Florida," the press release said. "That suggests early general election support is tracking closely with partisan ID, with a large share of voters currently undecided or soft in their preferences." Both the April and May polls were conducted by Targoz Market Research of Nashville, Tennessee. Read more at This story contains previously published material. Jim Rosica is a member of the USA TODAY Network – Florida Capital Bureau. Reach him at jrosica@ and follow him on Twitter/X: @JimRosicaFL. This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Poll: Byron Donalds surges past Casey DeSantis with Trump backing
