22-04-2025
Exclusive: Carnegie consortium commits $10.2 million to decipher nuke risks
A consortium led by the Carnegie Corporation of New York is pledging millions of dollars to turbocharge nuclear weapons expertise, particularly concerning risk reduction and the bomb's intersection with space and artificial intelligence.
Why it matters: Political uncertainties in the U.S. are sparking proliferation concerns and prompting nuke discussions in France, Germany, Poland and South Korea.
Meanwhile, China is expanding its own arsenal, the nuclear shadow looms over Ukraine and negotiations about Iran's future creep along.
Driving the news: Louise Richardson, the Carnegie Corporation of New York president, announced the fund at a conference Tuesday.
How it works: The consortium is launching with $10.2 million to distribute over the next two years, with plans to raise more funds going forward.
Backers include Carnegie, Longview Philanthropy, PAX sapiens and Founders Pledge. Others may chip in.
The group will soon seek research proposals from think tanks, university centers, nongovernmental organizations, individual experts and more.
Who gets what will be determined by the consortium members. Grants will likely be a minimum $500,000.
The announcement is meant to make clear "that nuclear threats are still here. They're still with us, and they're being complicated by things like emerging technologies," James McKeon, a program officer in the Carnegie international peace and security program, told Axios.
"You could say it's a success every single day that a nuclear weapon is not used," he said. "But, of course, we want to be more specific than that."
"For us, success in nuclear policy means long-term investment. It's a long-term challenge."
Context: The U.S. and Russia wield the largest nuclear stockpiles in the world, with thousands of warheads each. China trails with hundreds.
Yes, but: Arms control is not at the top of the list for presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
The last major U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, New START, expires in less than a year. President Trump is unlikely to negotiate another major treaty that does not involve China.
And Beijing last year waved off conversations, citing weapons sales to Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province.
The bottom line: " We need to reinvest in our capability to understand these trends and to bring together people with deep expertise in technology and politics and these regions and these regional players if we're going to make ourselves safer," Carl Robichaud, the director of Longview's nuclear weapons policy program, said in an interview.
