Latest news with #JanHatzius
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Jobs report was softer than it suggests, says Goldman's Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the economist's thoughts on the latest jobs report, the Federal Reserve and more.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Goldman Sachs shrugs off court blocking Trump's tariffs
Goldman Sachs shrugs off court blocking Trump's tariffs originally appeared on TheStreet. Bitcoin and broader crypto markets remained choppy Thursday as macro uncertainty deepened following a court ruling blocking President Trump's April tariff hike. BTC was down 1.4% at $107,326, while Ethereum hovered around $2,730. 'This kind of geopolitical whiplash always spills over into crypto,' said pseudonymous trader @DeltaDecks, who runs a trading Discord focused on macro-crypto crossovers. 'The court ban on tariffs might delay Trump's trade war playbook, but the market expects him to find a workaround — and that keeps volatility high, especially for assets seen as inflation hedges like Bitcoin.' Earlier this week, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against the White House's steep reciprocal tariffs, calling them procedurally invalid. But according to a new note from Goldman Sachs, the setback may be short-lived. The bank's chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote that the Trump administration is expected to appeal the decision, while also turning to alternative legal powers — including Section 301 and Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — to reimpose tariffs. 'As the administration can impose an across-the-board tariff and country-specific tariffs under other legal authorities… this ruling increases uncertainty but might not change the final outcome for most major U.S. trading partners,' Hatzius wrote. Goldman added that with only 10 days to comply with the court's ruling, the administration is likely to invoke Section 122, which allows tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days on nations with large trade surpluses with the U.S. The note also predicted a wave of Section 301 investigations targeting major trade partners, although Goldman said it was unlikely the administration could finish all such probes 'within the next several months.' According to the trader DeltaDecks, Goldman Sachs' note signals to investors that "the tariff plan isn't dead — it's just getting rerouted." "They're basically saying: 'Relax, Trump still has tools,' the analyst added. "But for crypto, that's not reassuring. Crypto thrives on predictability and momentum. If Trump reimposes tariffs using Section 301 or 122, we could see more market shocks, especially if China or the EU retaliate." He continued, 'The minute you get another wave of tariff threats, capital rotates out of risk assets like crypto and into defensive plays. That's what you're seeing now with Bitcoin hovering under pressure and altcoins bleeding." Goldman Sachs shrugs off court blocking Trump's tariffs first appeared on TheStreet on May 29, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on May 29, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Larger tax-cut proposal not enough to offset drag on growth from tariffs: Goldman Sachs
A new report by Goldman Sachs finds that while House Republicans' tax cut package that's moving through the reconciliation process cuts taxes by more than previously thought, it's still not enough to offset the drag on economic growth created by tariffs. Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius noted in the report published Monday that the proposed tax cuts are larger than anticipated, by about 0.1% to 0.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the next few years. The report said some of the provisions related to tax cuts from 2017 that are due to expire at the end of this year, unless extended, are slightly more generous than expected, while the net business tax cut is slightly smaller with reinstated incentives for investment and expending offset by fewer subsidies for green programs. "The net individual income tax deductions and business investment incentives in the fiscal package pending in the House should have a positive impact on growth in 2026 and 2027," they wrote. "However, just as the revenue gains from tariff increases will more than offset the net increase in the deficit (compared with the current level) from the House fiscal package, the hit to growth from tariffs will more than offset the boost to growth from the fiscal package." Moody's Downgraded Us Credit Rating: What Does That Mean? Tariffs also factor into the overall fiscal outlook in relation to the tax-cut package through the generation of revenue, though tariff revenue isn't included in the estimate of the bill that will be produced by the Congressional Budget Office. Tariffs are taxes on imports that are paid by importers, who economists note often pass higher costs on to consumers via higher prices. Read On The Fox Business App The analysis found that while the tax-cut package would increase budget deficits by about 0.4% of GDP compared to current policy in the next few years, tariff revenue would likely exceed that difference. "Goods imports in 2024 totaled roughly 11% of GDP. Assuming that goods imports decline roughly proportionately to the 13 [percentage point] rise in tariffs we assume, tariffs should raise around 1.25% of GDP, or around $400bn in FY2026," the economists wrote. However, they noted that the "overall increase in federal revenues would be somewhat smaller, as we have lowered expectations for other revenues slightly as a result of the hit to growth from tariffs." Cbo Says Us Budget Deficits To Widen, National Debt To Surge To 156% Of Gdp Persistent budget deficits have caused the gross national debt to surge above $36 trillion and have prompted the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade the U.S. from their top tier over the last 15 years, with political dysfunction around the debt limit and curbing spending contributing to the moves. S&P lowered the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ in 2011 amid a debt-limit impasse, while Fitch Ratings issued a downgrade on the same scale in August 2023, citing an "erosion of governance" around managing the debt. Moody's on Friday issued its own downgrade, cutting the U.S. rating from the top-notch of Aaa down a rung to Aa1 due to deficit projections. Moody's Downgrades Us Credit Rating Over Rising Debt The Goldman Sachs report also said Moody's move "appears to have been influenced by the pending fiscal package." "While we do not believe the downgrade would force any holders of Treasury securities to sell, it highlights the deteriorating fiscal outlook and comes at a time when markets are already attuned to fiscal risks," Goldman wrote. "That said, Moody's projected 9% of GDP deficit in 2035 is roughly 2pp larger than our own." The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is a popular metric for comparing the fiscal to the size of the economy. Last year, in the federal government's fiscal 2024, the deficit was 6.4% of GDP, up from 6.1% in fiscal 2023 and 5.3% in fiscal 2022. The pandemic era peak was 14.7% in fiscal 2020 amid a surge of relief measures, while the all-time record is 26.9% in 1943 as World War II article source: Larger tax-cut proposal not enough to offset drag on growth from tariffs: Goldman Sachs Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Expect tariffs to cancel out any economic boost from Trump's tax cuts, Goldman Sachs says
Any boost to growth provided by the GOP tax bill will be offset by tariffs, Goldman Sachs wrote. Investors have been waiting for tax cuts and fiscal stimulus to boost the market. A sweeping fiscal package was advanced by a vote in the House of Representatives on Sunday. With Republicans' "big, beautiful bill" working its way through Congress, some may be growing hopeful that the sweeping fiscal package could provide a fresh boost to markets and the economy. That might be the case were it not for an equally powerful force facing the US: tariffs. Writing on Monday, analysts at Goldman Sachs said that the trade war might complicate the outlook for tax and spending cuts to provide a tailwind to growth. "The hit to growth from tariffs will more than offset the boost to growth from the fiscal package," a team led by Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote. After President Donald Trump's election win last November, investors grew convinced that pro-growth policies were coming to uplift both the economy and markets. Forecasted tax cuts and promises of deregulation fueled post-election gains, though both efforts were soon overshadowed by Trump's aggressive tariff campaign. Since then, trade negotiations have taken the edge off of last month's "liberation day" tariff package, and a budget bill has emerged on Capitol Hill. Included are tax cuts and efforts to deliver fiscal stimulus. To some economists, this has the potential to reignite economic growth, with positive implications for stocks. While Goldman didn't speculate on what the bill would do for markets, it emphasized that the drag from tariffs will overshadow any boost to the economy. Of course, things could still change, the bank said. There's the chance that state and local tax policy deductions become more generous, for instance, or that federal spending cuts occur sooner than is scheduled in the bill's current draft. In a May 12 note, Hatzius raised his 2025 US growth forecast to 1%, after the US and China temporarily dialed back tariffs. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Expect tariffs to cancel out any economic boost from Trump's tax cuts, Goldman Sachs says
Any boost to growth provided by the GOP tax bill will be offset by tariffs, Goldman Sachs wrote. Investors have been waiting for tax cuts and fiscal stimulus to boost the market. A sweeping fiscal package was advanced by a vote in the House of Representatives on Sunday. With Republicans' "big, beautiful bill" working its way through Congress, some may be growing hopeful that the sweeping fiscal package could provide a fresh boost to markets and the economy. That might be the case were it not for an equally powerful force facing the US: tariffs. Writing on Monday, analysts at Goldman Sachs said that the trade war might complicate the outlook for tax and spending cuts to provide a tailwind to growth. "The hit to growth from tariffs will more than offset the boost to growth from the fiscal package," a team led by Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote. After President Donald Trump's election win last November, investors grew convinced that pro-growth policies were coming to uplift both the economy and markets. Forecasted tax cuts and promises of deregulation fueled post-election gains, though both efforts were soon overshadowed by Trump's aggressive tariff campaign. Since then, trade negotiations have taken the edge off of last month's "liberation day" tariff package, and a budget bill has emerged on Capitol Hill. Included are tax cuts and efforts to deliver fiscal stimulus. To some economists, this has the potential to reignite economic growth, with positive implications for stocks. While Goldman didn't speculate on what the bill would do for markets, it emphasized that the drag from tariffs will overshadow any boost to the economy. Of course, things could still change, the bank said. There's the chance that state and local tax policy deductions become more generous, for instance, or that federal spending cuts occur sooner than is scheduled in the bill's current draft. In a May 12 note, Hatzius raised his 2025 US growth forecast to 1%, after the US and China temporarily dialed back tariffs. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
