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Japan Forward
5 days ago
- Business
- Japan Forward
Births Fall Below 700,000 Far Earlier Than Expected: Is There a Way Out?
このページを 日本語 で読む The number of children born in Japan in 2024 fell below 700,000 for the first time. This is 14 years earlier than the government had projected. The sharp decline underscores the rapid pace of the country's falling number of births. A major factor behind the trend is the growing reluctance among young people to marry or have children, largely attributed to economic insecurity. In response, experts are calling for urgent measures to improve the financial situation of younger generations. In 2023, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimated that 755,000 children would be born to Japanese citizens in 2024. It had projected that the number of births would drop below 700,000 in 2038, with a forecast of 692,000 that year. Japan's social security system operates mainly on a pay-as-you-go model, funded by insurance premiums from the working-age population. If the number of births continues to decline at the current rate, the burden on workers will increase, putting the system's financial stability at risk. Time is also running out to reverse the trend. The number of people born in the 1990s, who are now of marriageable age, had been steady at around 1.2 million per year. However, that figure dropped below 1.1 million in 2005 and fell to under 1 million by 2016. Future birth cohorts are expected to shrink even further. The government has warned that the years leading up to 2030 may be the "last chance" to reverse the trend. However, effective countermeasures have yet to be implemented. Japan's total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, also fell to a record low of 1.15. Economic uncertainty is a major reason why more young people are choosing not to marry or have children. Takumi Fujinami, a senior researcher at the Japan Research Institute, said, "Lower-income individuals are less likely to have children. It's urgent that we improve the economic conditions of young people preparing for marriage or parenthood, for example, by raising the minimum wage." Fujinami also noted that the decline in births is affecting not only urban areas but rural regions as well. While dual-income households are now the norm, many rural areas still lack quality job opportunities for women. He emphasized the need to "rethink how female employment is structured in regional areas too." Author: Kazuyuki Nagahashi, The Sankei Shimbun このページを 日本語 で読む
The Independent
05-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
The Asian country that has seen its number of children fall for 44th year running
The crisis of declining birth rate in Japan continues to worsen, as new government figures showed the country's child population has fallen for the 44th straight year to a new record low. In Japan the total number of children aged under 15, including foreign nationals, dropped 350,000 to 13.66 million, according to the data released by the ministry of internal affairs and communications on Sunday. Children made up just 11.1 per cent of Japan's total population, which was about 120.3 million in October 2024 following a new record fall in the country's population. Japan's child population has been falling continuously since 1982, Japan Today reported. At least 3.14 million children are aged between 12 to 14, while just 2.2 million are in the group 0 to 2 years. The are 6.99 million boys and 6.66 million girls in Japan. Japan has the second-lowest ratio of children to adults among the 37 nations with a population of at least 40 million, behind South Korea on just 10.6 per cent, according to UN data. In February, the Japanese government announced that the number of babies born in the country fell to a record low of 720,988 in 2024 – a ninth consecutive year of decline. Births were down 5 per cent in a year, despite a range of steps unveiled in 2023 by former prime minister Fumio Kishida to boost childbearing, while a record number of 1.62 million deaths meant that more than two people died for every new baby born. The decline in Japan's population has been raising alarm bells for years, amid concerns over how a shrinking workforce will impact the country's economy and could even threaten national security. One Japanese expert on demographic trends has warned that if the birth rate continues its current rate of decline, the nation will be left with only one child under the age of 14 by January 2720. The latest figures released in April showed the overall population had fallen for the 14th straight year and marked the largest fall on record since the government began collecting comparable data in 1950. The number of people aged 75 or above grew by 700,000 to 20,777,000, accounting for a record 16.8 per cent of the entire population, the government said. About 29.3 per cent of Japan's population were made up of people aged 65 or above, according to reports. One reason for Japan's birth rate decline was that fewer marriages have taken place in recent years, stemming in part from the Covid-19 pandemic, said Takumi Fujinami, an economist at the Japan Research Institute. Although the number of marriages edged up 2.2 per cent to 499,999 in 2024, that came only after steep declines, such as a plunge of 12.7 per cent in 2020. "The impact could linger on in 2025 as well," Mr Fujinami told Reuters.
Japan Times
11-04-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
After two years in top job, BOJ's Ueda faces his biggest challenge yet
Under the leadership of Gov. Kazuo Ueda, who marked two years on the job this week, the Bank of Japan started to gradually unwind its decade-long experiment in super-easy money, a daunting task that he has handled well. "I think the BOJ has done a good job overall,' said Tomohisa Ishikawa, chief economist at the Japan Research Institute. Now comes the really tough part. Ueda, who took the helm at the BOJ on April 9, 2023, has to lead the central bank as the economy is buffeted by the worst trade war in decades, possibly ever. The bank has repeatedly said it intends to increase rates if key economic and price data are on track to meet its forecasts, with 2% underlying inflation as the key target. U.S. President Donald Trump last week announced new tariffs, with almost every country affected. Japan was targeted with a surprising 24% rate. They went into effect on Wednesday, but the president authorized a 90-day pause for most trade partners on the same day, citing the willingness on the part of many to negotiate solutions. A baseline 10% tariff will remain, as will 25% tariffs on vehicles. A new 25% auto parts tariff is scheduled for implementation next month. The announcement is a huge relief for policymakers for now, but the tariffs that were maintained are still quite high, and significant uncertainty remains. Trump has said he wants to see real change and not just cosmetic offers made to appease him. Prior to the introduction of the new U.S. tariffs, a number of BOJ watchers projected that rates would next be increased in the summer, while some said May was even possible due to high inflation readings. 'If the global economy slows and the currency market becomes unstable, it will be difficult for the BOJ to continue raising rates,' Ishikawa said. It's likely the BOJ will have no choice but to take a wait-and-see stance to gauge the effects of the U.S. tariffs, said Saisuke Sakai, chief economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies. Monetary policy decisions are set to grow more challenging as the economy is buffeted by tariffs. | Reuters Despite the 90-day pause, the economic impact could still be serious given that the 10% baseline tariffs are still in effect, along with the auto tariffs, while the trade war between the United States and China is intensifying, he said. 'The Japanese government is looking to introduce economic measures, such as supporting finance for smaller enterprises and distributing money to the public in response to the looming impact, so it's difficult for the BOJ to make a move under such circumstances," Sakai said. The central bank will probably not raise rates until it confirms economic data from the April-June period, which won't be available until August. 'I initially thought of a July rate hike as a main scenario, but I think it has become less likely," Sakai said. Expected volatility in the currency market will make the BOJ's job tougher, as the yen could go either way, declining or gaining. If the tariffs reignite inflation in the United States, the U.S. Federal Reserve might need to stop its rate-cut plan and might even need to raise rates again, which would increase yen selling pressure. In that case, the BOJ would be put in a difficult position. It would not want to further stress an already unstable economy, but a rate increase would be needed to defend the yen. Another possible scenario is that the yen might become a safe haven in the turmoil and gain if the global economy faces a downturn, which could lead the central bank to roll out some monetary stimulus measures, possibly even cutting rates. "I believe the BOJ has been raising rates in part to have the option of cutting them when something happens.' Ishikawa said. "But the current 0.5% is still not very high." It would be challenging to deliver sufficient monetary easing to stimulate the economy, he added. Although the BOJ has a tough road ahead, economists said the central bank has made steady progress to shift away from the ultraloose, unorthodox monetary policy over the past two years. "I think the leadership is quite stable, as the governor and the two deputy governors are very knowledgeable about economics and finance, which provides a strong sense of confidence,' Ishikawa said, adding that there has also been no major conflict with the political side. The BOJ introduced its first rate increase in 17 years in March last year, scrapping negative interest rates and setting a new target range of zero percent to 0.1%. The central bank also announced an end to its yield-curve-control program, which was designed to keep 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields to around zero percent, while it also stopped purchasing exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts. Since then, the BOJ upped rates in July and January to take the rate to 0.5%, the highest in 17 years. Sakai said while the BOJ was carefully proceeding, such a cautious approach has made it difficult for market participants to understand the bank's intentions, which led to the rate increase last July rattling markets. 'The bank couldn't get the market to anticipate the move. It shocked the market and caused an excessive reaction," he said. The BOJ has been keen to improve communications since last summer by utilizing speeches at events as a tool to help the market price-in the bank's intentions. As a result, the bank succeeded in getting the market to anticipate the rate increase in January, Sakai said. But communications will be more crucial from now on, as the economic outlook will be more uncertain than ever because of the U.S. tariffs, he added.
Korea Herald
27-02-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
Japan's births fell to record low in 2024
TOKYO -- The number of babies born in Japan fell to a record low of 720,988 in 2024 for a ninth consecutive year of decline, the health ministry said on Thursday, underscoring the rapid ageing and dwindling of the population. Births were down 5 percent on the year, despite a range of steps unveiled in 2023 by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to boost childbearing, while a record number of 1.62 million deaths meant that more than two people died for every new baby born. Although the fertility rate in neighbouring South Korea rose in 2024 for the first time in nine years, thanks to measures to spur young people to marry and have children, the trend in Japan has yet to show an upturn. Behind Japan's childbirth decline are fewer marriages in recent years, stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, said Takumi Fujinami, an economist at the Japan Research Institute. Although the number of marriages edged up 2.2 percent to 499,999 in 2024, that came only after steep declines, such as a plunge of 12.7 percent in 2020. "The impact could linger on in 2025 as well," Fujinami said. Unlike some Western countries, only a few of every 100 babies in Japan are born out of wedlock, suggesting a stronger correlation between marriages and births. Asked about the latest demographic data, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba noted the rise in the number of marriages. "We need to be aware the trend of falling births has not been arrested. But the number of marriages posted an increase. Given close ties between the number of marriages and the number of births, we should focus on this aspect as well," he said. News this week that South Korea's fertility rate rose to 0.75 in 2024 from 0.72 in 2023 suggested the demographic crisis there might have turned a corner. In Japan, the most recent data shows the corresponding figure for the average number of babies a woman is expected to have during her reproductive life came in at 1.20 in 2023. While Fujinami said it was too early for any meaningful comparison between the figures in the two countries, it was important for both to improve job opportunities and close the gender gap to encourage young people to marry and have children. Experts believe South Korea's positive turn resulted from government support in work-family balance, childcare and housing, as well as a campaign for businesses to nudge employees towards parenthood. (Reuters)
Iraqi News
27-02-2025
- Business
- Iraqi News
Japan's births fell to record low in 2024
The number of babies born in Japan fell to a record low of 720,988 in 2024 for a ninth consecutive year of decline, the health ministry said on Thursday, underscoring the rapid ageing and dwindling of the population. Births were down 5% on the year, despite measures in 2023 by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government to boost child-bearing, while a record number of 1.62 million deaths meant that more than two people died for every new baby born. Although the fertility rate in neighbouring South Korea rose in 2024 for the first time in nine years, thanks to measures to spur young people to marry and have children, the trend in Japan has yet to show an upturn. Behind Japan's childbirth decline are fewer marriages in recent years, stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, said Takumi Fujinami, an economist at the Japan Research Institute. Although the number of marriages edged up 2.2% to 499,999 in 2024, that came only after steep declines, such as a plunge of 12.7% in 2020. "The impact could linger on in 2025 as well," Fujinami said. Unlike some Western countries, only a few of every 100 babies in Japan are born out of wedlock, suggesting a stronger correlation between marriages and births. News this week that South Korea's fertility rate rose to 0.75 in 2024 from 0.72 in 2023 suggested the neighbouring nation's demographic crisis might have turned a corner. In Japan, the most recent data shows the corresponding figure for the average number of babies a woman is expected to have during her reproductive life came in at 1.20 in 2023. While it was too early for any meaningful comparison between the figures in the two countries, Fujinami warned, it was important for both to improve job opportunities and close thje gender gap to encourage young people to marry and have children. Experts believe South Korea's positive turn resulted from government support in the three areas of work-family balance, childcare and housing, as well as a campaign for businesses to nudge employees towards parenthood. SOURCE: REUTERS
