Latest news with #JasonBrowne
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil tumbles, shares rise as Trump claims Iran-Israel ceasefire
STORY: Oil prices tumbled again on Tuesday, after Donald Trump said Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. Tehran's foreign minister later denied there was any formal agreement, but did say the country would stop its attacks if Israel ended what he called its 'illegal aggression'. International benchmark Brent crude was down over 2% in Asian morning trade, with similar falls for U.S. oil. That added to a 9% plunge the day before, when Iran did a token retaliation against a U.S. base in Qatar and signalled it was done for now. The news appeared to lift concern that Tehran could move to block the Strait of Hormuz waterway, through which about a fifth of the world's oil is moved. However, Alexis Investment Partners President Jason Browne says the drop in prices may have been exaggerated: "So again, a lot of that is people that maybe put on some hedges because they were worried that the prices were going to go up significantly and now they've got unwind those hedges. It's probably a little bit of an overreaction at the moment. So expect some volatility there, but we don't expect huge spikes.' Tuesday saw shares rally as tensions eased. Benchmark indexes in Tokyo and Hong Kong gained 1% or more, while South Korea's Kospi index jumped 2.5%. Tech stocks led the gains in Japan, with chip gear maker Tokyo Electron up over 4%. The more positive mood also saw money flow out of traditional safe havens, with gold down over 0.5% in Asian morning trade.
Reuters
14 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Oil price drop may be overreaction, says market expert
Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners says the oil price drop is "probably a little bit of an overreaction," as stocks rally on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
As ‘sell America' trade rattles Washington and Wall Street, here's what could bring U.S. markets back from the brink
Jason Browne said he would consider adding more Treasurys to his portfolio when the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5%. A previous version of this report indicated he had already bought more Treasurys. President Donald Trump's decision to pause some of his tariffs helped spur a rebound in stocks last week. But it didn't stop the pressure from spreading to other corners of the financial markets. Americans are 'doom-buying' coffee, olive oil and soap. What's the one thing I should stockpile to avoid tariff price hikes? I held power of attorney for my late brother. Can I withdraw money from his bank account to give to his favorite charity? I begged my adviser to sell amid the market turmoil. He dragged his feet and I lost $20,000. Do I have any recourse? 'The whole thing feels predatory': My grandma, 97, pays $170 a month for a $10,000 life-insurance policy. Should we stop payments? 'Are we out of our minds?' My husband and I are in our 70s. Should we use $600K of our savings to buy our dream home? A recent bout of aggressive weakness in the dollar and Treasurys has spurred concerns that the American 'brand' as an attractive destination for foreign investment capital has been tarnished, perhaps irreparably so. '[T]he more troubling narrative of late is the notion of what we call a 'sell America Inc.' risk,' a team of interest-rate strategists at ING said in a report shared with MarketWatch. Even Trump himself acknowledged that the bond market was 'very tricky' during a press conference after he announced his plan for a 90-day pause on new tariffs on many countries, suggesting that it might have inspired his decision to tone down his trade fight. But to many investors, seeing the dollar and bond prices fall in tandem has come as a shock. Speculation that investors in Japan and China might be pausing purchases of U.S. government bonds, or even unloading Treasurys outright, has added to the sense of dread, even though evidence of this has been lacking. Buyers showed up to auctions of 10-year and 30-year Treasurys held last week. In their report, the team at ING said it was unclear whether pressure on bonds and the dollar was coming from American investors or foreign ones. While markets remain in the grip of uncertainty spurred by Trump's decision to launch a trade fight with China — the world's No. 2 economy and one of the biggest U.S. trading partners — some investors are beginning to see a buying opportunity amid the chaos. Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners, told MarketWatch that large dips in stocks and bonds have, in the past, been great opportunities for investors with a more long-term focus. Browne said he thinks stocks like Nvidia Corp. NVDA and other members of the 'Magnificent Seven' were looking attractive at these valuations. He said he would consider adding more bond duration to his portfolio when the yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y nears 5%. While Trump's tariff agenda has been disruptive, it hasn't doomed U.S. capital markets, he said. 'At some point, everything will find its footing,' Browne told MarketWatch. 'It's only been a few days — give it time.' Central to the question of how quickly U.S. stocks might recover is whether or not investors have already passed the point of 'peak uncertainty.' David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Group's global wealth-management business, said on Friday that Trump's willingness to pause some of his tariffs was likely a first step toward restoring the confidence of investors and corporate executives alike. By demonstrating that he is attuned to capital markets and the economy, Trump may have helped dial back growing expectations for a recession. That could mean that 'peak uncertainty' has already passed. There is some data to back this idea. Julian Emanuel, an equity strategist at Evercore ISI, pointed out in a report shared with MarketWatch on Friday that Bloomberg's index of trade-policy uncertainty has started to decline over the past few days. 'It may be a blip, but [April 10] marked the first downtick in trade-policy uncertainty in weeks,' he said. Emanuel also highlighted that popular sentiment gauges like the American Association of Individual Investors' weekly survey have fallen to levels consistent with previous 'generational buying' opportunities in March 2009 and October 1990. Even if stocks do find a floor here, few strategists expect a swift return to where the market was in February, when the S&P 500 index last hit a record high. Simply too many risky scenarios could emerge over the next few months, said Michael Kramer, the founder of Mott Capital. Corporate earnings season has just begun, and a lack of clarity on trade policy could inspire many of America's biggest companies to pull their profit outlooks, as Delta Air Lines DAL did recently. A team of strategists at Bank of America said in a report shared with MarketWatch earlier this week that, when companies ditch their guidance, their shares tend to underperform. Plus, investors will be closely monitoring economic data due out over the next couple of months for any signs that Trump's tariffs are causing a slowdown in growth, a spike in unemployment or a boost to inflationary pressures. Recessions tend to produce grinding bear markets that result in S&P 500 declined of at least 20%. As of Friday's close, the index was down less than 11% from its Feb. 19 closing high, FactSet data showed. Kramer, for his part, thinks the market will keep pushing and prodding the administration until Trump finally capitulates, he said. Until that happens, the portfolio manager expects markets to remain volatile. 'I don't really know if announcing a couple of trade deals is going to help,' Kramer said. 'I think the market is going to keep pushing this until Trump basically reverses the whole thing.' Even a Trump reversal on trade might not be enough to soothe angry investors, others suggested. At this point, it might take more interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to revive investor confidence. 'I do not believe simply hitting a theoretical 'undo' button would bring us back to the highly optimistic and lower-volatility environment we saw coming into 2025,' said Ryan Dykmans, chief investment officer at Dunham & Associates Investment Counsel. 'It may take the combination of the Fed easing, along with tax relief, as well as continued deregulation,' he added. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, Nasdaq Composite COMP and S&P 500 SPX all saw strong rebounds this past week. As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 had gained 289.28 points, or 5.7%, on the week to finish at 5,363.36, its best weekly percentage-point gain since November 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose 50 basis points to 4.492% this week. As of 3 p.m. Eastern time on Friday, it was the yield's biggest weekly gain since Nov. 16, 2001, Dow Jones data showed. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y also was up sharply, tallying its biggest weekly gain since April 1987. The euro EURUSD strengthened by 3.7% to $1.136, its best week against the dollar DXY since March. Read: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns tariffs and trade war are causing 'considerable turbulence' in the economy Stocks that benefit from chaos are helping a husband-and-wife investing duo beat the competition Bond market is the Achilles' heel of Trump's 'big, beautiful' budget bill, say investors 7 stock picks from a global fund manager as markets 'enforce discipline' on Trump 'I ended up getting very sick': I'm divorcing an abuser. I've had two terrible attorneys — and fired them both. Do I sue? My late uncle's house is in foreclosure. A woman claims to be his daughter and my cousin is a squatter. What can we do? Sign in to access your portfolio
