4 days ago
Who will win the Hamilton by-election?
Photo by JeffLast week, Scotland's First Minister, the SNP's John Swinney, used the front-page of the Daily Record to write a column, not to the Scottish nation, but to the voters of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, a set of towns south of the Clyde and just south-east of Glasgow.
His message was simple. In the by-election to come – then seven days out – this was the choice: Vote Labour, get Reform. But vote SNP, stop Reform.
The Hamilton by-election is a contentious one. The SNP won the seat in 2021. And Labour came a strong second. In 2024, in a similarly shaped Hamilton seat for the General Election, Labour won. In normal circumstances, they should be winning it again. But Reform is on the march. And they are polling almost a fifth of the popular vote in Scotland right now. Gone are the days of 'English nationalist' Nigel Farage – Reform is something else.
Now, Swinney's dismissal of Labour might be statistical illiteracy. But it's a strategy. The SNP's view is that in order to shore up their own support, elections characterised as SNP vs Reform will err in the SNP's favour. Not in all corners of Scotland, I grant you. But in most.
And in saying to despondent, apathetic Labour voters – who in England stayed home – that in this election it is Reform or the SNP, the hope is those Labour voters will come Swinney's way. But there is a catch: in elevating the party into prominence it might just push Reform's poll ratings, and by-election performances, up further.
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Britain Predicts anticipates an SNP hold 'by around one thousand votes'. Labour should come second. Reform should come third with a large 23 per cent. But given error margins, my forecast cannot rule out Reform pipping Labour for second. And the forecast cannot rule out the SNP losing Hamilton, or winning it without breaking a sweat. Those scenarios are just less likely than a hold of a thousand votes.
The wild card here is Reform. Reform's presence in Scotland is a broad one. My analysis of what polls we do have suggests Reform is picking up one tenth of those who voted Yes in the independence referendum, as well as one-in-twenty SNP supporters.
Primarily, though, Reform's appeal is coming from unionists and former Conservatives. But for it to have a presence among the now departed columns of ScotNats and Labour supporters is telling. Reform is eating into everything in Scotland. Which only adds to the uncertainty. Don't be surprised if they pip Labour for second. The data doesn't guarantee it. But it doesn't rule it out.
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