Latest news with #JeromePowell
Forbes
2 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
As Fed Enters Blackout Period, June Meeting Expected To Hold Rates Steady
FILE - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Federal ... More Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, May 7, 2025, at the Federal Reserve in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File) Ahead of its next interest rate decision on June 11, Federal Open Market Committee members are now in a blackout period. This limits public comments on monetary policy. Recent speeches suggest that June's meeting will result in holding rates at their current 4.25% to 4.5% level. The CME FedWatch Tool, which gauges the implied forecast of fixed income markets implies it is almost a certainty that rates are held steady in June. However, the FOMC is watching the impact of tariffs closely and incoming data this month, and next, could help inform the path for interest rates later in 2025. The summary of a meeting between Jerome Powell and President Trump on May 29, also suggests the President is still looking for lower interest rates, but Powell has no interest in accommodating that if the economic outlook does not support it. For now, policymakers generally believe the U.S. economy is performing well, limited the need to cut interest rates. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr summarized the economy in the following way in a speech on May 15. 'In my view, the economy is on solid footing, with solid growth, low and stable unemployment, and inflation continuing to come down towards our 2 percent target. But the outlook has been clouded by trade policies that have led to an increase in uncertainty, contributing to declines in measures of consumer and business sentiment.' Some of these themes were echoed in a more recent speech on June 1 in Korea by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, in exploring the impact of tariffs, he said. 'I do expect tariffs will result in an increase in the unemployment rate that will, all else equal, probably linger. Higher tariffs will reduce spending, and businesses will respond, in part, by reducing production and payrolls.' Then continuing onto inflation Waller said the following, 'I expect the largest factor driving inflation will be tariffs. As I said earlier, whatever the size of the tariffs, I expect the effects on inflation to be temporary, and most apparent in the second half of 2025.' President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell met at the White House on May 29. Powell mentioned in response to a question at the press conference after FOMC's May meeting that he never requests meetings with the President, so presumably the meeting was at the President's request. President Trump has said in several public comments that he believes Powell should cut interest rates immediately. It appears Trump may have made that same point in the meeting with Powell. However, Powell noted that, 'path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.' As such, the President and Fed Chair may have had, in private, a similar debate to their public statements, with Trump calling for lower rates, and Powell stating that interest rates will be set based on economic data. So far, Trumps criticism of Powell doesn't appear to have had any bearing on monetary policy, despite temporarily shaking the markets in late April when it was believed Trump might try to fire Powell. On reported data, the economy continues to show robust job growth and somewhat cooling inflation. However, inflation remains above the FOMC's 2% goal, limiting the prospect for interest rate cuts currently. That's likely why rates won't be cut in June. The big question is tariffs. FOMC policymakers have signaled that they will wait and see what the impact of tariffs are based on the economic data. For now, the impact from tariffs on economic reports is muted, in part because of reporting lags and also because firms are evaluating their response. Once the data of tariff's economic impact becomes more evident, it's likely the FOMC's response will too. However, since that data likely won't come before the June meeting, rates are expected to be held steady.
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold prices climb as tariff jitters lift safe-haven demand
By Anmol Choubey (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed on Monday as an escalation in the Russian war in Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump's fresh threat to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum prompted investors to seek refuge in safe-haven bullion. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,305.85 an ounce, as of 0204 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $3,329.80. "With trade and geopolitical worries bubbling to the surface once again, it's no surprise to see gold ticking higher to start the week," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. "Risk assets are on the backfoot to start the week while a dip in the dollar is also keeping gold supported." [MKTS/GLOB] Trump said on Friday that he plans to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50% from 25%, prompting the European Commission to warn that Europe is prepared to retaliate. Ukraine and Russia escalated hostilities ahead of their second round of peace talks in Istanbul, with a wave of attacks that included one of Ukraine's boldest strikes of the war and an overnight drone assault by Russia. The U.S. dollar index edged 0.2% lower, making bullion less expensive for overseas buyers. [USD/] Markets are awaiting speeches from several U.S. Federal Reserve officials this week for cues on the monetary policy outlook, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak later in the day. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that interest rate cuts remain possible later this year even as the Trump administration's tariff regime is likely to push up price pressures temporarily. Gold, which is considered as a safe-haven asset during the time of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, tends to thrive in low-interest rate environment. Meanwhile, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to speak soon to iron out trade issues including a dispute over critical minerals, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday. Elsewhere, spot silver was steady at $32.99 an ounce, platinum was down 0.6% at $1,049.72 and palladium fell 0.5% to $965.77. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Mint
14 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Wall Street week ahead: Spotlight on jobs data, Jerome Powell's speech, manufacturing & services PMIs
After Wall Street closed the month of May with gains, investors will have plenty to data in the first week of June to gauge the market sentiment. The major focus will be on the jobs data for May, and S&P final manufacturing and services PMIs. Market participants will also keenly watch for US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at an event in Washington, DC. On the earnings front, big companies scheduled to report quarterly results include CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Broadcom. On June 2 (Monday), separate reports on S&P final US manufacturing PMI for May, ISM Manufacturing for May, construction spending for April, and monthly TBA Auto sales will be released. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver opening remarks on Monday at a conference in Washington. On June 3 (Tuesday), separate reports on factory orders for April and job openings for April will be declared. On June 4 (Wednesday), separate reports on ADP employment for May, S&P final US services PMI for May, ISM services for May, Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released. On June 5 (Thursday), separate reports on US trade deficit for April and US productivity for first quarter will be released. On June 6 (Friday), separate reports on US employment report for May and consumer credit for April will be released. Following companies are due to report first quarter earnings in the week ahead — Campbell's Company, CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, DocuSign, Samsara, and Rubrik. US stocks closed mixed on Friday as President Donald Trump slammed China before sounding upbeat about reaching a trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.34 points, or 0.13%, to 42,270.07. The S&P 500 lost 0.48 points, or 0.01%, at 5,911.69 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 62.11 points, or 0.32%, to 19,113.77. For the month, the S&P 500 rose about 6.2%, while the Nasdaq surged 9.6%.
Mint
16 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Wall Street week ahead: Spotlight on jobs data, Jerome Powell's speech, manufacturing& services PMIs
After Wall Street closed the month of May with gains, investors will have plenty to data in the first week of June to gauge the market sentiment. The major focus will be on the jobs data for May, and S&P final manufacturing and services PMIs. Market participants will also keenly watch for US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at an event in Washington, DC. On the earnings front, big companies scheduled to report quarterly results include CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Broadcom. On June 2 (Monday), separate reports on S&P final US manufacturing PMI for May, ISM Manufacturing for May, construction spending for April, and monthly TBA Auto sales will be released. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver opening remarks on Monday at a conference in Washington. On June 3 (Tuesday), separate reports on factory orders for April and job openings for April will be declared. On June 4 (Wednesday), separate reports on ADP employment for May, S&P final US services PMI for May, ISM services for May, Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released. On June 5 (Thursday), separate reports on US trade deficit for April and US productivity for first quarter will be released. On June 6 (Friday), separate reports on US employment report for May and consumer credit for April will be released. Following companies are due to report first quarter earnings in the week ahead — Campbell's Company, CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, DocuSign, Samsara, and Rubrik. US stocks closed mixed on Friday as President Donald Trump slammed China before sounding upbeat about reaching a trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.34 points, or 0.13%, to 42,270.07. The S&P 500 lost 0.48 points, or 0.01%, at 5,911.69 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 62.11 points, or 0.32%, to 19,113.77. For the month, the S&P 500 rose about 6.2%, while the Nasdaq surged 9.6%. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.39% from 4.43%. The two-year Treasury yield slipped to 3.90% from 3.92%.
Yahoo
20 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
1 Stock to Buy, 1 Stock to Sell This Week: Broadcom, Lululemon
Trump tariffs, U.S. jobs report, and last batch of earnings will be in focus this week. Broadcom's robust earnings outlook, driven by AI and software growth, makes it a standout buy this week. Lululemon's expected weak results and consumer spending concerns signal a sell. Looking for more actionable trade ideas? Subscribe now and save 45% off InvestingPro! Stocks on Wall Street ended lower on Friday, but the major indices notched a weekly gain and the biggest monthly increase since late 2023 as investors shook off trade war fears. The benchmark S&P 500 jumped 1.9% for the week and 6.2% in May. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 2% on the week and 9.6% for all of May, its biggest monthly gain since November 2023. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6% during the week and 3.9% for the month. Source: More volatility could be in store this week as investors continue to assess the outlook for the economy, inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings amid President Donald Trump's trade war. Most important on the calendar will be Friday's U.S. employment report for May, which is forecast to show the economy added 130,000 positions. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.2%. Ahead of the jobs report, the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs will also be closely watched. That will be accompanied by a heavy slate of Fed speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders maintained bets that the U.S. central bank would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, as per the Fed Monitor Tool. Source: Elsewhere, on the earnings docket, there are just a handful of corporate results due as the Q1 reporting season draws to a close, including Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD), Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE), and Nio (NYSE:NIO). Regardless of which direction the market goes, below I highlight one stock likely to be in demand and another which could see fresh downside. Remember though, my timeframe is just for the week ahead, Monday, June 2 - Friday, June 6. Broadcom, a leading semiconductor and software company with a market cap exceeding $1 trillion, is poised for a breakout week. The primary catalyst is its upcoming earnings report, expected to showcase robust financial performance. The company's fiscal Q2 report is scheduled to come out on Thursday at 4:15PM ET. Market participants expect a sizable swing in AVGO shares following the print, with options markets pricing in a potential $7 move, or roughly 8%, in either direction post-earnings. Source: InvestingPro Analysts expect Broadcom to deliver $1.57 per share, a robust 43% year-over-year increase, on revenue of $14.95 billion, up 20%. With data center investments continuing to accelerate globally and enterprise software spending showing resilience despite economic uncertainties, Broadcom appears well-positioned to deliver another strong quarter that could drive further appreciation in its shares. Analyst sentiment has been notably positive heading into the print. According to InvestingPro data, all 22 of the latest analyst revisions have been to the upside, highlighting confidence in Broadcom's continued expansion. The company's momentum mirrors that of AI leader Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), fueled by its dominance in data center infrastructure. With a history of beating earnings estimates and a forward P/E ratio that remains attractive compared to peers, Broadcom is well-positioned for upside. Positive guidance and potential dividend increases could further boost investor confidence. Source: AVGO stock ended Friday's session at $242.07, near its 52-week high of $251.88. Shares are up just 4% year-to-date in 2025 after delivering a robust 110% total return in 2024. InvestingPro's AI-powered quantitative model rates Broadcom with a 'GREAT' Financial Health Score of 3.05, reflecting strong profit and sales growth, high gross margins (over 76%), and a long-standing record of rising dividends. Be sure to check out InvestingPro to stay in sync with the market trend and what it means for your trading. Subscribe now for 45% off and position your portfolio one step ahead of everyone else! Conversely, Lululemon, a premium athleisure brand, faces a challenging week as it prepares to release earnings that are expected to disappoint. With intensifying competition in the activewear space and a lofty valuation that leaves little margin for error, LULU is vulnerable to a post-earnings sell-off. The yoga wear retailer is scheduled to release its first quarter update after the U.S. market closes on Thursday at 4:05PM ET. According to the options market, traders are pricing in a massive swing of 8.6% in either direction for LULU stock following the print. Source: InvestingPro The market is bracing for weak financials, driven by a slowdown in U.S. consumer spending on discretionary items like yoga gear and sportswear. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish with 19 downward revisions and no upward adjustments in the weeks preceding the report. Lululemon is expected to post an annual gain of 1.6% in adjusted earnings per share to $2.58, with revenue projected to increase by 6.8% from the year-ago period to $2.36 billion. Commentary from executives on the health of the U.S. consumer will be closely watched, as any signs of prolonged weakness could rattle investor confidence. Lululemon's forward guidance already disappointed last quarter, and there's a palpable risk that another underwhelming report could prompt further downgrades. The premium athletic apparel retailer, known for its $128 leggings and $68 workout tanks, faces increasing competition from both established athletic brands and fast-fashion retailers offering similar styles at lower price points. Source: The technical picture for Lululemon stock has deteriorated as well, with shares underperforming the broader market and key retail indices year-to-date. LULU stock closed at $316.47 on Friday, well below its 52-week high of $423.32. As per InvestingPro research, recent analyst commentary paints a picture of declining momentum. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) cut its price target, and BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) downgraded to Underperform, warning of shrinking margins and pricing pressures. Be sure to check out InvestingPro to stay in sync with the market trend and what it means for your trading. Whether you're a novice investor or a seasoned trader, leveraging InvestingPro can unlock a world of investment opportunities while minimizing risks amid the challenging market AI: AI-selected stock winners with proven track record. InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued. Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters, and criteria. Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying. At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY (NYSE:SPY)), and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ). I am also long on the Invesco Top QQQ ETF (QBIG), and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies' financials. The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight. Related articles 1 Stock to Buy, 1 Stock to Sell This Week: Broadcom, Lululemon These 4 Quantum Stocks Outperformed in May—Is There More Room to Run? Nvidia Rides the AI Supercycle With Another Beat - And Still Looks Underpriced Sign in to access your portfolio
