Latest news with #JesseFerrell
Newsweek
a day ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Map Shows Where Tropical Storm Dalila Might Form Within 48 hours
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The fourth named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has a high chance of forming within the next 48 hours. A forecast map from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipates the storm will form south of Southern Mexico. Newsweek reached out to the NHC by email for comment. Why It Matters The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and has seen a very active start. Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the season in late May, followed by Hurricane Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme. All three storms formed before the average first date of June 10 for a named storm in this region. Now, the fourth named storm, which will be called Dalila, is expected to form in the next two days. A map from the National Hurricane Center shows where Tropical Storm Dalila could form within 48 hours, depicted in red. A map from the National Hurricane Center shows where Tropical Storm Dalila could form within 48 hours, depicted in red. National Hurricane Center What to Know The NHC has been monitoring the disturbance that could become Dalila for several days. "Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico," a tropical weather outlook from the NHC said about the disturbance. "Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so while it moves generally west-northwestward. Interests along the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system." The storm has a 90 percent chance of forming within 48 hours. There also is a 90 percent chance it will form within the next seven days. Forecasts about the storm's anticipated path have not yet been published but will likely be issued once it forms. AccuWeather meteorologists are anticipating 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific this season. An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, according to AccuWeather. Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific, with 12 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to 10 will likely become hurricanes, and two to five could develop into major hurricanes. What People Are Saying AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines previously told Newsweek: "There's no doubt three named storms so early is highly unusual. The first hurricane doesn't usually occur until last week of June." AccuWeather Meteorologist and Digital Producer Jesse Ferrell said in a report about the early start to the season: "The basin has seen plenty of storms form early, with 44 storms, including 19 hurricanes, forming in May in the historical record." What Happens Next Once Dalila forms, regular updates will be issued. In addition to the storm that could become Dalila, the NHC also is monitoring a disturbance offshore of Central America that has a near 0 percent chance of forming within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance of forming in the next seven days.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Eastern Pacific to churn out more tropical storms before Atlantic activity begins
The eastern Pacific Ocean will remain active in the coming days and weeks with more chances for tropical storms, AccuWeather meteorologists say. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is likely to remain quiet through the end of June, despite some early hints at tropical formation. The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially began on May 15, which was about two weeks ahead of the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1. "This year was one of the latest starts to any tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere, which not only includes the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific, but also the western Pacific," AccuWeather Meteorologist and Senior Content Editor Brian Lada said. Eastern Pacific has turned things around, is moving swiftly along Last year, the eastern Pacific got off to a record slow start with Tropical Storm Aletta not forming until July 4. This year, Tropical Storm Alvin formed on May 28, or about two weeks after the start of the season, but about two weeks ahead of the historical average for the first tropical storm. Alvin only lasted a few days and peaked as a 60-mph tropical storm over the open waters. Moisture from Alvin caused localized flooding in parts of Central America and Mexico, and some rain even reached parts of the south-central United States. •Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ Just days after Alvin's demise, two more tropical storms formed in the waters west of Central America and southwest of Mexico in the Pacific. Suddenly, the eastern Pacific jumped well ahead of the historical average pace and even set an early-season formation record. Barbara was named on June 4 and two days later, Cozme formed in roughly the same zone. Barbara went on to become a hurricane on June 9. However,, that status only lasted a matter of hours before slipping back to tropical storm intensity. "Barbara was the first hurricane or typhoon in the Northern Hemisphere this year," AccuWeather Meteorologist and Digital Producer Jesse Ferrell said, "Not since 1993 has the first hurricane-force storm been seen this late." Despite that late start in the Northern Hemisphere, the flurry of named systems in the eastern Pacific has taken center stage. The second named storm, Barbara, as a tropical storm and hurricane, is also ahead of schedule for the East Pacific basin. The second tropical storm typically forms around June 24 and the first hurricane about June 26. Cosme, the third named storm of this season, is also way ahead of schedule and one of the earliest third-named storms on record, with the historical average formation date of July 6. "The basin has seen plenty of storms form early, with 44 storms, including 19 hurricanes, forming in May in the historical record," Ferrell said. Yet another tropical storm is likely be just days away from forming in the eastern Pacific. The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season is Dalila. It is possible that, toward the middle and latter part of the summer, downpours from an eastern Pacific tropical rainstorm may enhance the North American monsoon and could bring heavy rainfall to parts of the southwestern U.S. Atlantic still waiting on first storm of 2025 For early-season development in the Atlantic to get a boost, meteorologists look for a front that dips down into the Gulf, Caribbean or Bahamas waters. Another way is for a large area of low pressure to form and slowly spin near Central America. This is known as a gyre. Thus far, fronts dipping in have been unsuccessful at initiating tropical development, and the gyre has failed to fully develop. "We still expect the Central American gyre to form later this month, and its formation could spur tropical development in waters in the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Although the gyre has yet to develop, another critical weather pattern is delaying the start of the Atlantic season-a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic, known as the Bermuda high. A strong Bermuda high can force budding tropical storms to track close to North America, assuming the tropical storms can form in the first place. Early in the season, that can be a challenging task, especially with water temperatures well short of their peak for the season. "The Bermuda high has been stronger than average this season and has helped to bring more dry air from northern Africa and dust (grains of sand) from the Sahara Desert westward across the Atlantic so far," DaSilva explained, "This, along with a significant amount of disruptive breezes, called wind shear, has greatly contributed to the slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season." AccuWeather is expecting a near- to above-historical-average Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season for 2025. Between three and six named tropical cyclones are forecast to directly impact the U.S. Based on the historical average, the first tropical storm does not form in the Atlantic until June 20 and the first hurricane not until Aug. 11. In 1992, for example, the first tropical storm did not form until Aug. 16. That storm would go on to become Category 5 Hurricane Andrew and would tear a swath of destruction across South Florida during the last week of August. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
2 states lead the nation in tornadoes after a rash of ferocious outbreaks
If you've been hearing more about tornadoes this spring than recent years, there's a reason for that: So far this year, the U.S. has seen more twisters reported by early May than in any year since 2011, AccuWeather meteorologist Jesse Ferrell reports. Ferocious outbreaks in March and April led to hundreds of tornadoes, along with dozens of deaths. As of May 6, the Storm Prediction Center has logged 724 preliminary tornado reports nationwide – 198 more than the historical average of 526. Ferrell said that two states stand out with unusually high numbers of tornado reports. Mississippi leads with 96 tornado reports through early May. Illinois follows with 82 reports. "Rounding out the top 5 are Missouri with 78, Texas with 74 and Alabama with 49," he said. As for tornado fatalities, this year, many of the twisters that caused deaths occurred in Missouri, Tennessee, and Mississippi, the Storm Prediction Center said. And according to AccuWeather, much of 2025's activity was driven by four major tornado outbreaks in March and April: • March 14-16: 182 reports• March 30-31: 56 reports• April 2-3: 112 reports• April 4-7: 56 reports However, the busy year has hit a bit of a lull in early May. "May's tornado count in the U.S. has gotten off to a slow start," said meteorologist Jonathan Erdman May 8 in an online forecast. As of May 8, only 20 tornadoes had been reported in the month. "But that may change due to an upcoming shift in the pattern next week that could bring more severe weather to the nation's midsection," he said, warning of threats of severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center, in a May 9 forecast, warned of a "risk for organized severe convection, including a few supercells," by the end of the week. May is typically the month with the most tornadoes in the U.S., Erdman reported. May 2024 was particularly intense for tornadoes: "Last May, 530 tornadoes tore through the U.S., more than double the average and just shy of the May record from 2003 (542 tornadoes)," he said. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: US has recored the highest number of tornado reports in over a decade
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
‘Looks like nothing happened': Amish make storm repairs so fast meteorologists couldn't assess damage
In the wake of damaging tornadoes that tore through parts of Michigan and Indiana last week, a story of resilience has quietly unfolded. After deadly tornadoes tornadoes ripped through rural parts of Michigan and Indiana last week, recovery began almost immediately-especially in Amish communities where rebuilding quietly took shape before the dust had settled. In Amish communities struck by twisters with winds up to 100 mph, repairs began not hours later, but immediately. Before National Weather Service teams arrived to assess damage, new shingles were already in place, barns reframed and storm debris cleared. By the time meteorologists reached the scene, it was hard to tell a tornado had come through at all. "They just fix it," NWS Meteorologist Dustin Norman said, according to The Associated Press. "When we get there, it looks like nothing happened. I completely respect how quickly they get stuff done." The severe weather outbreak brought large hail, damaging winds and dozens of tornadoes across the region. While many communities were left picking up the pieces, the Amish turned to the same principles they've followed for generations. Without the use of insurance claims or outside contractors, the Amish approach recovery through tradition, community ties and practical experience. When severe weather strikes, they come together and rebuild-quickly and efficiently. For them, resilience isn't a reaction; it's a way of life. While the swift recovery highlights the Amish community's strength and self-reliance, it can complicate efforts to accurately measure the full impact of a tornado. "The rating of tornadoes based on the Enhanced Fujita Scale hinges on NWS employees verifying tree and structure damage," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell. "If there's no damage verified, a rating can't be assigned for that spot in the tornado track."
Yahoo
18-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
When was the last EF5 tornado?
Tornadoes are among the strongest and deadliest types of weather, capable of destroying entire neighborhoods in minutes. However, the most powerful tornadoes, classified as EF5, make up less than 1% of all tornadoes in the United States, and it has been nearly 12 years since one touched down. There have been many powerful tornadoes that have carved deadly paths across the U.S. in recent years, but none have hit with the ferocity of an EF5. Moore, Oklahoma, tornado May 20, 2013 The most recent EF5 tornado in U.S. occurred on May 20, 2013, when a devastating twister barreled through Moore, Oklahoma, killing 24 and injuring hundreds more. The mile-wide tornado devastated several neighborhoods south of Oklahoma City with winds of 210 mph-the second time an EF5 hit Moore in the span of 14 years. It was on the ground for roughly 20 miles and hit several neighborhoods, including a housing complex in Westmoor, the Plaza Towers Elementary School, the Moore Medical Center, and Highland East Junior High School. Just 11 days later, another catastrophic tornado touched down in Oklahoma, hitting 35 miles northwest of Moore in El Reno. This was the widest tornado on record at 2.6 miles across, but it was ultimately rated an EF3. How are tornadoes rated? Tornadoes are rated on the Enhanced Fujita scale, an adaptation of the original Fujita scale, created by Dr. Tetsuya "Ted" Fujita in 1971. After a tornado occurs, a survey team inspects the damage. Based on the assessment, experts can then estimate the peak winds of the tornado, which determines the rating. The weakest are EF0s with winds under 85 mph, and they can cause minor damage to buildings and cause weaker trees to topple. If a tornado moves over an open area, such as a field, and there is no damage that can be surveyed, it is called an EF-unknown (EFU). EF5 is reserved for monstrous tornadoes with winds over 200 mph, strong enough to blow the bark off trees, rip up pavement and blow entire buildings off their foundations. There have been 59 tornadoes rated either F5 or EF5 in the U.S. since 1950, according to NOAA. This accounts for 0.08% of all tornadoes in that time span. EF5 tornado 'drought' It has been nearly 12 years since a tornado was given an EF5 rating, the longest stretch without such a powerful tornado in the U.S. since the 1950s. A study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in January investigated the current drought in EF5 tornadoes, and identified several factors behind the recent trends. "The EF scale can be somewhat subjective and hasn't been applied consistently over the years," AccuWeather Meteorologist and Digital Producer Jesse Ferrell said. "When we moved to the new EF scale in 2008, the wind speeds to confirm an F5/EF5 tornado changed from 200 to 201 mph, but damage indicators which validate the wind speeds did not change." Additionally, one of the indicators of an EF5 tornado is a home being swept clean from its foundation, but changes to building codes in recent years has made it harder for powerful tornadoes to cause such damage, Ferrell added.
