Latest news with #JoeGaffoglio
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US added 139K jobs in May, in line with expectations
The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May and the jobless rate held steady at 4.2 percent, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. The May jobs report showed the U.S. economy keeping pace despite uncertainty driven by President Trump's trade policy, largely matching the expectations of economists. The U.S. was projected to add roughly 125,000 jobs, according to consensus estimates. Employment growth in May was concentrated in health care and hospitality jobs while many other sectors stayed flat. Health care gained 62,000 jobs, exceeding recent averages, with about 60,000 jobs added between hospital services and ambulatory care services. Hospitality jobs were up by 48,000. Employment stayed mostly flat across construction, warehousing, manufacturing, transportation, and mining. Wages grew by 0.4 percent to hit an average of $36.24 in May. Wage growth has been trending down in recent months, though it has been outpacing declining inflation. 'May's healthy jobs report highlights ongoing stability in the labor market, signaling that an economic slowdown is not imminent and that the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates,' Joe Gaffoglio, CEO of Mutual Of America Capital Management, said in a commentary. The healthy jobs number likely strengthens the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see posture when it comes to cutting interest rates. The U.S. central bank has left rates at a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent since January after starting to cut them last year, citing policy uncertainty and Trump's trade war as reasons to hold off from cuts. This has led to tensions with Trump, who has blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell for his reluctance to spur the economy with lower interest rates in the face of his trade war, which is expected to add to inflation. A weak ADP Research Institute private employment report from earlier this week prompted additional criticism from Trump. ADP clocked just 37,000 new jobs added in April off predictions of more than 100,000. The ADP survey has had some reliability issues compared to government surveys during the postpandemic period. 'ADP number out. 'Too Late' Powell must now lower the rate. He is unbelievable. Europe has lowered nine times,' the president commented in a Truth Social post this week. Following government cost-cutting efforts undertaken by the Trump administration, the May jobs report showed a decrease in federal employment of 22,000 jobs. Federal employment is down by about 60,000 jobs since the beginning of the year. Cuts have been made at numerous agencies, including the IRS and the US Agency for International Development. 'All things considered, this is a good jobs report. The labor market continues to slow steadily, but the sky is not falling,' Olu Sonola, US economist with Fitch Ratings, said. 'Given the backdrop of trade policy uncertainties, the Fed will be relieved with this report. Labor force participation declined in May, dropping to 62.4 percent from 62.6 percent in April and eliciting some concern from economists. The size of the labor force declined slightly in May after increasing in April. 'Beneath the surface, there are a number of blemishes to be found. Labor force participation declined and sector participation in job creation was less than consistent,' Bankrate economic analyst Mark Hamrick commented. Updated at 9:13 a.m. EDT Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Miami Herald
02-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
April jobs report shows modest hiring slowdown but still solid labor market
The U.S. economy had another outsized month of new job gains in April, but downward revisions to prior estimates suggest some modest easing in the labor market ahead of the impact of tariffs and government-workforce cuts in coming months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 177,000 new jobs were created in April, a tally that topped Wall Street's 138,000 forecast and the downwardly revised March reading of 185,000. February's total was revised lower to a gain of 85,000. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Average hourly earnings eased as well, falling 0.2% from the previous month and slowing to an annual pace of 3.8%, just inside Wall Street's 3.9% forecast. The headline unemployment rate, which tracks only those who are actively seeking new employment, held at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 62.6%."Another stronger-than-expected jobs report is encouraging, although definitely not top of mind considering the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and global trade," said Joe Gaffoglio, president and chief executive at Mutual Of America Capital Management. "While the labor market continues to be a bright spot, that could change quickly if the imposition of tariffs leads to disruptions in supply chains and global trade." "March's 4.2% unemployment rate underscores resilience in the U.S. economy, but cracks have been forming," he added. "Job openings continue to decline and steady quit rates suggest workers are growing less confident about jumping to new roles. Given the more cautious stance both by companies and workers, ongoing job market momentum will be closely watched." U.S. stock futures extended their premarket advance following the data release, with futures tied to the S&P 500 indicating a 42-point opening-bell slump and the Nasdaq called 133 points higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was last called 295 points higher. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields rose 5 basis points to 4.266% following the data release while rate-sensitive 2-year notes rose 3 basis points to 3.739%. More Economic Analysis: Fed inflation gauge sets up stagflation risks as tariff policies biteU.S. recession risk leaps as GDP shrinksLike it or not, the bond market rules all Earlier this week, data from payroll processing group ADP showed private sector hiring slowed sharply, falling to just 62,000 over April. Employers attempted to "reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data," Nela Richardson, the group's chief economist, said. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, meanwhile, noted that April job cuts fell sharply from the previous month, but at just over 105,400, they remained some 63% higher than over the same month in 2024 and the highest for the month of April in five years. "Though the government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month," Senior Vice President Andrew Challenger said. "Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending," The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US added 228K jobs in March, jobless rate stays flat
The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate stayed roughly even at 4.2 percent, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. The monthly federal jobs report showed the labor market holding strong in March after another month of rising concern about the impact of President Trump's economic agenda and major cut to the federal workforce. March employment data came in well above economists' expectations of 135,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, according to consensus estimates. The report also showed a slight decline in federal government employment of just 40,000 jobs, far fewer than the more than 216,000 federal job cuts tracked by Challenger, Christmas and Gray in March. The combination of a strong jobs numbers, sticky inflation over the past few months, and sweeping new tariffs suggests the Federal Reserve will continue its pause on interest rate cuts. The central bank held interbank lending rates steady at a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent in its first two meetings of this year. 'The solid March jobs report highlights an economy that remains resilient despite sticky inflation, a drop in consumer confidence and uncertainty surrounding the impacts from recently introduced tariffs,' Joe Gaffoglio, president of Mutual of America Capital Management, wrote in a commentary. 'With inflation stuck well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target and uncertainty over tariffs, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon.' Federal government employment showed a decline of 4,000 jobs from February to March after an initiative by the Trump administration to pare the federal workforce. Cuts have been made to agencies including the IRS, USAID and other agencies. Government employment was up overall, with states adding 6,000 jobs and local governments adding 17,000 jobs on the month. Jobs numbers were revised down by nearly 50,000 across the first two months of the year, with 111,000 jobs added in January and 117,000 jobs added in February. The retail sector added 24,000 jobs in March, health care added 54,000 jobs, and the transportation and warehousing sector added 23,000 jobs. The March report comes at the end of a tumultuous week for the U.S. economy and financial markets, which have plunged in the wake of Trump's sweeping new tariffs. The stock market suffered Thursday its worst day of losses since 2020 after Trump imposed Wednesday a 10 percent universal tariff and effective import tax rates of up to 54 percent on other nations. Trump's new tariffs followed his prior imposition of import taxes on Canadian and Mexican goods, foreign metal and imported autos and auto parts. The president is on track to raise import taxes by roughly $600 billion, according to analyst estimates, even as the economy already showed signs of slowing earlier this year. Developing Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Miami Herald
04-04-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
March jobs report provides relief, but markets brace for weakness
The U.S. economy added a bigger-than-expected tally of net new jobs last month, data indicated Friday, providing markets with a small kernel of relief amid the extended tariff-triggered selloff. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 228,000 new jobs were created in March, a tally that topped Wall Street's 140,000 forecast and the downwardly-revised February reading of 117,000. January's tally was revised to a gain of 111,000. Average hourly earnings were steady in March, rising 0.3% from the previous month, but slowed to an annual pace of 3.8%, just inside Wall Street's 3.9% forecast. The headline unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate slipped 0.2 percentage point to 62.5%. "The solid March jobs report highlights an economy that remains resilient despite sticky inflation, a drop in consumer confidence and uncertainty surrounding the impacts from recently introduced tariffs," said Joe Gaffoglio, CEO and president at Mutual Of America Capital Management. "With inflation stuck well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and uncertainty over tariffs, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon, and may only begin to reevaluate this position should the job market deteriorate more significantly." U.S. stock futures pared some of their premarket declines following the data release, with futures tied to the S&P 500 indicating a 135 point opening bell slump and the Nasdaq called 480 points higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was last called 1,050 lower. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields rose 1 basis point to 3.905% following the data release while rate-sensitive 2-year notes also rose 1 basis point to 3.565%. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 0.1% lower at 101.911, the lowest since October. Related: Trump tariffs raise U.S. recession and stagflation risks Earlier this week, data from Challenger Gray showed corporate layoffs for the month of March nearly doubled from last year to 172,0107, with the DOGE-lead overhaul of the federal workforce accounting for 280,253 layoffs over the past two months. Payroll processing group ADP, meanwhile, reported a firmer-than-expected total of around 155,000 in terms of private sector job creation, despite the economic uncertainty and a pullback in consumer sentiment. More Economic Analysis: Gold's price hit a speed bump; where does it go from here?7 takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarksRetail sales add new complication to Fed rate cut forecasts Weakening U.S. growth, however, and the prospect of a near-term recession tied to President Trump's tariff regime, has boosted bets for deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts over the coming year. The CME Group's FedWatch now suggests a 42.5% chance of a quarter point reduction in May, up from just 18.5% last week, and indicates at least three rate cuts, and possibly four, by early December. Related: ADP jobs report suggests little tariff impact on private-sector hiring "Retaliatory tariffs and slower global trade could weigh on exports and financial markets, said Nuwan Jayawardana, director of investment research at Acuity Knowledge Partners. "This could amplify recessionary risks and push the Fed to provide monetary cushioning, especially if fiscal tools prove to be politically constrained," he added. The most likely Fed path after 'Liberation Day' is a pause or further hikes as cost-push inflation plays out," Jayawardana said. "However, a pivot to rate cuts is plausible – and potentially swift – if the tariffs do more economic damage than anticipated." The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
The Hill
29-01-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Fed holds rates steady as Trump tariffs loom, economy hums
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday after price increases ticked up over the last three months, suggesting inflation may still have some life in it. Central bankers held rates at a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent, in line with market expectations. The decision was unanimous among the voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the panel of Fed officials responsible for setting interest rates. The CME Fed Watch prediction algorithm based on futures contract prices had the probability of a hold in January at 99.5 percent on Wednesday. 'The Federal Reserve has decided to pump the brakes … with inflation lingering at around 3 percent and strong jobs numbers in recent months,' Joe Gaffoglio, head of Mutual of America Capital Management, wrote in a commentary. The pause in rate reductions comes as President Trump has been elbowing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to keep cutting rates to spur economic growth, reviving the tensions between the White House and the Fed that were a hallmark of Trump's first term. 'I think I know interest rates much better than they do, and I think I know it certainly much better than the one who's primarily in charge of making that decision,' Trump told reporters last week, shortly after being sworn into office. Wednesday's hold follows what many analysts believed to be a 'hawkish' rate cut in December that sent stock markets tumbling. 'The S&P 500 slumped by 2.95 percent that day, which was its second-biggest decline in the last two years, so the extent of their hawkishness came as a major surprise for markets,' Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen and others wrote in a Wednesday analysis. The Fed cut rates in September, November and December, seeking to spur investment in the economy after holding interest rates around 5.5 percent for a year in response to the pandemic inflation, which climbed as high as 9 percent in 2022. Inflation has climbed back toward 3 percent, rising from 2.4 percent in September even as the Fed pressed ahead with easing. Strength in prices and employment conditions caused the Fed to walk back its expectations for monetary easing this year, reducing the number of anticipated quarter-point cuts in December from four to two. With a new presidential administration and congress in office and the economy still likely processing trillions in pandemic-induced fiscal stimulus, economists have described the current monetary outlook as complex. 'The rate outlook is complicated,' UBS economist Paul Donovan noted in a Wednesday commentary. Real interest rates in the bond market have spiked in recent weeks, likely on concerns about the deficit that could be widened further by a Republican fiscal agenda, making the case for interest rate cuts even as price and employment data comes in hotter than expected. Trump's economic agenda, which could include import taxes that businesses could then pass on to consumers, may also have an inflationary effect, further reducing the need for cuts. 'Government policy adds uncertainty, which is reflected in bond market agitation. The Fed has to balance whether government spending restrictions might negatively affect growth, against how much any trade taxes will increase US inflation (specifically, whether US consumers will face second round inflation effects from tariffs),' Donovan said. Some Fed officials have doubled down on cutting rates despite the bank's improved assessment for 2025 economic performance. 'I believe that inflation will continue to make progress toward our 2 percent goal over the medium term and that further [interest rate] reductions will be appropriate,' Fed governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month. The U.S. money supply is approaching the high-point reached in 2022 before the Fed started cutting interest rates and selling securities in order to tighten economic conditions. After rising by 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter and 3 percent in the third quarter, first-quarter 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to clock in at 2.3-percent growth, according to the Atlanta Fed. The Fed is expecting 2.1-percent aggregate growth for this year.
