8 hours ago
This airline is facing the ultimate makeover test
It shed the irreverent, slightly scrubber clothes it wore as Virgin Blue more than a decade ago as it sought to become a full-service, multi-brand airline group under former chief executive John Borghetti. That was its Qantas mini-me period.
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In a financial sense, the period in which it sought to clone Qantas was a speculator failure.
For its shareholders, which were mainly large offshore airlines, Virgin was a financial black hole that suffered a string of losses. In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, it lost the support of financiers and shareholders and collapsed under a mountain of debt and a pandemic-induced revenue stasis.
But Borghetti's reign also marked the heyday period for Australia's flying public.
He invested millions into Virgin's product – its aircraft, its food, loyalty scheme and its lounges. At one stage, travellers were fed feasts devised by celebrity chef Luke Mangan and could fly some domestic business class routes on a full lie-down seat.
It also forced Qantas to lift its service game in what became a service race to the top. This market-share war also led to a price war – a dream for customers who received peak service levels with discount airfare prices.
But it was unsustainable.
Under Bain's ownership, yet another version of Virgin was crafted, which could or should be its Goldilocks market position.
Arguably, it does retain some of the disruptor/challenger original DNA and some of the premium features it grew under Borghetti.
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It will compete with Qantas and with low-cost carrier Jetstar, but its strategy is to commandeer the middle – the more cost-conscious small- and medium-sized business market and the higher-end leisure traveller. It will do so by pitching its pricing a bit below Qantas mainline, but above Jetstar.
The recovery in its earnings over the past two years suggests this strategy should be a winner.
Australia has demonstrated it can support two airlines (and three differently pitched airline brands) as long as none of them does anything to disrupt the status quo.
But there is a large aviation graveyard full of those that attempted to introduce a third national airline.
The Virgin prospectus (which is the float sales document) says that Australia is a structurally attractive market because of large distances between capital cities and the lack of a fast and efficient train network. You can add to that a wealthy population that has prioritised travel even in the face of a cost-of-living crisis and high interest rates.
The secret to Virgin's success going forward will be to know its place in the market and not lose sight of it.
Beyond that, Virgin, like any airline needs a good smattering of luck – given the fact that black swan events can blow up the best-laid plans.
