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Newsweek
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Pakistan Nuclear Weapons: How Far Can Missiles Travel?
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Pakistan became nuclear capable just prior to the turn of the century but possesses about the same number of weapons, if not more, than neighbor India. Why It Matters Pakistan and India are embroiled in a new entanglement feared to lead to warfare following the April 22 terrorist attack in the India-controlled part of Kashmir, perpetrated by Islamist terrorists linked to Pakistan, that led to 26 deaths. Pakistani officials said Wednesday that they had "credible intelligence" that India intends to carry out military action against it in the "next 24-36 hours on the pretext of baseless and concocted allegations of involvement in the Pahalgam incident," according to Reuters. What To Know Pakistan became a nuclear power in 1998. Unlike India, the nation has no "first use policy" that vows not to be the first to fire such weapons unless provoked. In 1999, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency projected that Pakistan would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020. Estimates within the past five years have put Pakistan's official nuclear arsenal, consisting of air, sea and land weapons, at about 170. Pakistani army soldiers stand on a vehicle carrying a long-range ballistic missile Shaheen during the Pakistan Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2022. Pakistani army soldiers stand on a vehicle carrying a long-range ballistic missile Shaheen during the Pakistan Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2022. GHULAM RASOOL/AFP via Getty Images But nuclear experts more recently acknowledged that the 170-warhead stockpile could realistically grow to around 200 by this year due to the country's growth rate. Pakistan's Mirage III and Mirage V fighter bombers, located at two bases, are nuclear-capable. The Mirage V wields nuclear gravity bombs as part of a small arsenal, according to the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists. Mirage III can launch Ra'ad air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) as well as the add-on Ra'ad-II. The Ra'ad "can deliver nuclear and conventional warheads with great accuracy," according to a 2011 press release issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations, a media and public relations wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces. It can travel 350 kilometers and "complement[s] Pakistan's deterrence capability" by achieving "strategic standoff capability on land and at sea." The Ra'ad II, tested in February 2020, has even more range and can reportedly reach targets of 600 kilometers. Pakistan, which has been sanctioned by countries like the United States in the past, boosted its nuclear arsenal over many years due to threats from India. Both countries gained independence from Great Britain in 1947 yet have repeatedly clashed over claims of Kashmir. John Erath, senior policy director at the nonprofit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told Newsweek that India has a "huge advantage" in a air warfare with Pakistan due to the proximity of Pakistan's population centers being within reach of Indian aircraft and ballistic missiles. "India and Pakistan have been regional rivals since they got their independence, so the the idea of border clashes and tension that could lead to military action is never not there," Erath said. "It goes and it comes a little bit as to the seriousness. The last time we saw things like what are going on now was in 2019, when there were shots fired over the border and there was an Indian strike on a Pakistani facility that they said was training terrorists. "I would take that as something of a model and expect that if the Indians feel that they have to take some kind of action in response to this massacre, they would do something like that—strike a Pakistani facility or what they believe is a training facility or one of these militant groups." But it would be conventional, Erath added, saying "therein lies the danger" should a missile be fired with a conventional payload and Pakistani officials come under the assumption that the payload is nuclear and requires a response. In a speech on December 19, 2024, former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer speech, sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Arms Control Association, said that Pakistan's missile activity is an "emerging threat to the United States." He claimed Pakistan is pursuing "increasingly sophisticated missile technology," such as long-range ballistic missiles and large rocket motors that could eventually "strike targets well beyond South Asia, including the United States." A statement issued in response to Finer's comments by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry did not confirm nor deny the development of more long-range missiles. Erath said that both India and Pakistan have been carefully planning out wartime strategies over the course of 60 years should attacks become extreme. "Pakistan is definitely in an inferior position," he said. "They have a smaller country, a smaller military, fewer resources, but they know what they're up against and they they have ideas about how to stop it, including as a last resort the use of nuclear weapons. "If one side or the other were to make a major military incursion, as we see in Ukraine, that sort of thing is very difficult to do. It requires tremendous logistics, tremendous resources and tremendous expense, and neither side really want to take that on unless they feel that they have no other option. "The best that both sides and the rest of the world can do now is to urge restraint and look for what the off-ramp is going to be." What People Are Saying India Prime Minister Nemandra Modi said on X that India will "identify, track and punish every terrorist, their handlers and their backers. ... We will pursue them to the ends of the earth." U.S. State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated: "The United States stands with India, strongly condemns all acts of terrorism. We pray for the lives of those lost and for the recovery of the injured and call for the perpetrators of this heinous act to be brought to justice." U.S. Vice President JD Vance said: "Growing relations between our countries over the last decade are part of what led America to designate India a Major Defense Partner — the first of that class." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun: "We strongly condemn the attack. China firmly opposes all forms of terrorism. We mourn for the lives lost and express sincere sympathies to the bereaved families and the injured." What Happens Next Nuclear provocations will be the major goal for diplomacy from the perspective of the United States, whose leaders have offered full-throated support to India due to decades of allyship. The situation's outcome will not just impact South Asia but could also reshape global security, particularly with China's growing influence in the region.
Newsweek
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
India's Nuclear Weapons: How Far Can Missiles Travel?
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. India has been a nuclear power for over 50 years, possessing an arsenal that is publicly clandestine but capable in warfare—notably against its neighboring country, Pakistan, amid their decades-long clash over Kashmir. Why It Matters Last week, animosities reignited after Islamist militants shot and killed 26 people in Pahalgam, in the India-administered stretch of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region. Harsh rhetoric erupted out of Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, two nations that have been aggressive toward one another—largely due to laying claim over the Kashmir region—since both achieved independence from Great Britain in 1947. On Wednesday, Pakistan said it had "credible intelligence" that India intends to carry out military action against it in the "next 24-36 hours on the pretext of baseless and concocted allegations of involvement in the Pahalgam incident," Reuters reported. What To Know India first tested its nuclear weapons in 1974, becoming the sixth country to detonate a nuclear weapon. The arsenal ranges from 10 to 40 kilotons, though exact numbers remain unknown, according to The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. While the exact number of nuclear weapons has never been made fully public by India, the nation's stockpile was estimated to be 160 nuclear warheads in 2022, according to the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists. A soldier salutes next to an Akash missile system during the country's 76th Republic Day parade in New Delhi on January 26, 2025. A soldier salutes next to an Akash missile system during the country's 76th Republic Day parade in New Delhi on January 26, 2025. SAJJAD HUSSAIN/AFP via Getty Images They said that India at that time produced enough military plutonium, approximately 700 kilograms, for 140 to 210 nuclear warheads—data which has been supported by the International Panel on Fissile Materials. India can deliver approximately 48 nuclear warheads via the aging Mirage 2000H/I, Jaguar IS/IB and potentially the French-made Rafale aircraft, according to the Nuclear Information Project—the first two of which were deployed in the early 1980s and have ranges of 1,850 and 1,600 kilometers, respectively. The Rafale has a range of about 2,000 kilometers. There were 64 land-based missiles as of 2022. "In a nuclear exchange, which we certainly hope does not happen, India has a huge advantage because Pakistan's population centers are within reach of Indian aircraft and ballistic missiles—and many Indian population centers are difficult to hit from Pakistan," John Erath, senior policy director at the nonprofit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told Newsweek. He added: "The real—I hate to use the phrase center of gravity—but the focal point of the Pakistani state is in Punjab, and that's very close to the Indian border. So Indian reach those centers of Pakistani identity relatively easily." Erath said that Indian nuclear policy has been relatively consistent in that they don't want to use such weapons as a deterrent, either against Pakistan or China—the latter of which has been involved in border disputes with India every few years, where some shots have been fired but no major warfare has occurred. "China has an extensive and growing number of nuclear weapons, and this makes the Indians very nervous that one of these border states could spiral out of control and lead to a nuclear response," he said. "China has a 'no first use' policy on its nuclear weapons, but that's increasingly difficult to believe." What People Are Saying U.S. State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated: "The United States stands with India, strongly condemns all acts of terrorism. We pray for the lives of those lost and for the recovery of the injured and call for the perpetrators of this heinous act to be brought to justice." U.S. Vice President JD Vance said: "Growing relations between our countries over the last decade are part of what led America to designate India a Major Defense Partner — the first of that class." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun: "We strongly condemn the attack. China firmly opposes all forms of terrorism. We mourn for the lives lost and express sincere sympathies to the bereaved families and the injured." What Happens Next Nuclear provocations will be the major goal for diplomacy from the perspective of the United States, whose leaders have offered full-throated support to India due to decades of allyship. The situation's outcome will not just impact South Asia but could also reshape global security, particularly with China's growing influence in the region.
