Latest news with #JohnMoura
Reuters
14-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Middle swath of North America at risk of power shortfalls this summer, regulator says
May 14 (Reuters) - The middle section of the U.S. and Canada could have a shortfall of electricity this summer if higher-than-normal forecasted temperatures drive up demand as a changing mix of power supplies increases reliability risks, the organization overseeing the area's grid said on Wednesday. Electricity demand in the United States and Canada has grown by 10 gigawatts since last summer -- a more than doubling of the previous year's increase -- while fossil-fired power supplies retire and solar power additions surge, the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation said. At the same time electricity consumption rises from data centers, manufacturing and the electrification of industries like transportation, the sources of power generation on the North American electrical grid are shifting from around-the-clock power plants like coal and nuclear to intermittent supply from renewables, like solar and wind. That change has presented new challenges for grid reliability during the summer months, according to NERC, when the use of energy-guzzling air conditioning systems threatens to strip resources on the grid and cause power shortfalls. ERCOT, which controls the Texas grid, will be tested in the early evening hours, when demand increases but solar power output wanes. "When the sun goes down, that late early evening time period, that's when there's potential to fall short," NERC's John Moura during NERC's annual Summer Reliability Assessment news conference call. In the Southwest Power Pool, which covers states, including Montana, New Mexico and Nebraska, low wind power generation could throw off the supply and demand balance. Major Midwestern grid operator MISO, meanwhile, is expected to have less supply than last year with the retirement of 1,575 megawatts of natural gas and coal-fired generation since last summer. Outlier region New England is also at elevated risk of shortfalls. More than 7 gigawatts of fossil-fired power generation, including coal and natural gas, is expected to have retired since last summer in North America. At the same time as those around-the-clock power supplies retire, about 30 gigawatts of installed solar capacity, along with 13 gigawatts of battery storage capacity, has been added on the continent over the last year, NERC said in its report. The U.S. and Canada will need to add new transmission lines and power supplies to keep up with demand and rising temperatures to avoid shortfalls in the summer months, said Moura, who leads NERC's reliability assessment and system analysis. "As demand grows, we've got to build infrastructure," Moura said.
National Observer
02-05-2025
- Business
- National Observer
A pan-Canadian power grid could prevent blackouts, report says
Canada will face a future battling blackouts on power grids stressed by soaring demand and more extreme weather unless the newly-elected Liberal government rapidly invests in a nationwide power grid and provincial network links, says a new study. The report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporate (NERC), the US-based authority responsible for the continent's bulk power system, found Quebec and Nova Scotia to be 'particularly' exposed to potential electricity shortages in the next 10 years, especially during the high-demand winter months. Energy 'deficits' in supply meeting demand were also identified in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and New Brunswick in the report, which covered a forecast period to 2033. Only BC and Manitoba are expected to see 'no resource deficiencies' in the 12 'weather years' studied by NERC. However, every province's grid was predicted to become 'increasingly vulnerable' during stretches of climate change-fuelled extreme weather and unable to manage power load increases. In Ontario, the country's biggest economy, increases are forecast to rise 75 per cent by 2050. 'Regulators and grid planners [need to] work together to further assess the risks highlighted in our analysis and consider a wide range of options to mitigate risks, including inter-regional transmission, [new] internal resources, demand response, energy storage [and] energy efficiency,' John Moura, NERC's director of reliability assessments and performance analysis, told Canada's National Observer. A national energy 'backbone' would create a 'dedicated path for expanding the necessary infrastructure to meet growing demand and facilitating cross-provincial interconnections," says KPMG's Zach Parston. Reliability risks were 'highly dependent' on regional weather conditions — how cold or hot an area became during winter and summer months, the NERC report found. But it noted that 12 to 14 gigawatts (GW) of grid interconnectors that would make it possible to shift power between provincial grids could be 'an effective vehicle to strengthen energy adequacy.' Release of the NERC report comes at a crucial time in Canada's energy transition, with the impact of US tariffs galvanizing discussion around how the country can reduce its reliance on long-standing links with US energy markets. 'National interest' projects Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party in its pre-election platform pledged to 'work with provinces and territories to build out an East-West electricity grid, in a historic nation-building project, to secure Canadians' access to affordable, reliable, clean, Canadian electricity.' 'We are going to aggressively develop projects that are in the national interest in order to protect Canada's energy security, diversify our trade, and enhance our long-term competitiveness — all while reducing emissions,' said Carney, in a statement at the time. Governments and industry have debated for decades the economic and environmental virtues — and technological viability — of a trans-Canada, interprovincially-connected grid. But the idea has stalled because exporting energy to power-hungry U.S customers has historically been more lucrative than selling to domestic markets, with US$3.2 billion worth of electricity flowing south in 2023. Zach Parston, head of global infrastructure advisory at KPMG in Canada, sees construction of a national energy 'backbone' as creating a 'dedicated path for expanding the necessary infrastructure to meet growing demand and facilitating cross-provincial interconnections.' The NERC report stresses the 'critical need' for improvement to Canada's 'inter-regional transfer capability' — the ability to transfer power between provincial grids — to manage the impacts of extreme weather and supply shortfalls. 'This enhancement is vital for ensuring energy reliability and optimizing generation resources, especially given the increasing electrification of the economy, and increasing vulnerabilities,' he told Canada's National Observer. Nick Martin, director of electricity at the Transition Accelerator, a think-tank, said a 'more reliable and resilient' Canadian electricity network would be good for the environment and economy, curbing emissions by adding more renewables to the grid and boosting 'overall prosperity' through jobs and economic growth. He added the provinces would have to play their part to make a nationwide grid a reality. 'Provinces will need to take proactive steps to strengthen their interregional electricity planning and coordination if we're going to realize the benefits of these valuable infrastructure projects —improved reliability, reduced costs, and lower emissions,' he said. Canada-wide grid price not prohibitive A coast-to-coast power grid would bolster energy sovereignty by wiring together provincial electricity networks so they could be balanced by power supply 'rolled in' from across the country, time-zone to time-zone, preventing black-outs and backing-up local and regional networks. The project, according to calculations by the David Suzuki Foundation (DSF). could be built for roughly the same price as the cancelled $24-billion Energy East bitumen pipeline, 'Studies have shown, time and again, that Canada's grid needs a wholesale upgrade in the face of greater demand and extreme weather events,' said Stephen Thomas, clean energy manager at the DSF, an environmental NGO. 'We have the problem that electricity systems in this country are not connected. That is a challenge to reliability and affordability,' he said. 'The solution set [of a nationwide power grid] is exciting because it is in line with the transition we badly need to see of moving away from fossil fuels on the grid and toward renewables.' Thomas pointed to provincial inter-ties making the addition of more wind, solar and other renewables nationwide 'all the more possible' given that an interconnected grid, backed by Canada's vast hydroelectric network, could 'roll power east and west' to help balance regional demand. 'Now, it is the role of the federal government, led by Mark Carney, to bring the provincial utilities together to build it — and to pay for these upgrades,' said Thomas. 'These would be great nation-building projects and part of the solution to the threats we see coming from the US due to how connected our energy system is with theirs.' The grids in Canada and the US have some 31 electricity transmission connection points along the shared border. Future US-Canada power trade? NERC's Moura said while a cross-country power transmission system would be key to future-proofing Canada's provincial grids, there were a 'multitude' of regional factors that needed to be considered in designing it — including how linked up to the US grid these networks continue to be. 'The planning process must consider a multitude of factors such as geography, energy availability, and reliability,' he said, noting that historically, Canadian and US grids were developed as a border-straddling integrated system in both the Eastern and Western regions of North America. 'An inherent benefit of this interconnected [North American] grid is geographic diversity and associated energy availability which allows entities to rely on surplus power on both sides of the border,' said Moura. 'Our analysis has found reliability benefits of enhancing interregional ties between the provinces, as well as with the US.' The Liberals have promised to set up a so-called Major Federal Project Office mandated to streamline the review process applied to industrial-scale projects, such as for power infrastructure, down to 'two years instead of five.' Industry experts CNO spoke with previously believe five years would be a 'reasonable timeframe' to build a trans-Canada grid. Several recent studies have suggested that under $2 billion in federal investment in interprovincial grids would immediately trigger private financing for nationwide transmission worth three times that figure. And there would be a knock-on effect of around 50 times more in capital spending on construction of renewable power plants over the next decade, once there was a 'route to market' for their power production. BC recently awarded 30-year power purchase deals to nine wind projects, which will eventually add some 5 GW of power to the provincial grid. Ontario and Quebec, meanwhile, have planned procurement rounds coming later this year for 7.5 W and 5 GW, respectively, something NERC sees as a 'considerable improvement in resource projections catching up to demand forecasts.' The Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau in its Clean Electricity Strategy — published last December before US tariffs were imposed on Canada — said a 'thriving, low-carbon economy' depended on 'building tomorrow's grids at the pace and scale needed to drive clean growth, strengthen our competitiveness, and attract more major investments.'
Forbes
13-04-2025
- Science
- Forbes
Renewing The Mandate To Safeguard The Energy Grid
Protection of the energy grid, or "the Grid," will be an issue of significant interest during the second Trump Administration. According to President Trump, he intends to prioritize national security concerns while investing in modernizing and enhancing America's energy infrastructure. He also understood the significance of safeguarding vital infrastructure against electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) and other dangers during his first term in office. Three main regions constitute the U.S. energy grid: the Texas Interconnected System, the Western Interconnection, which spans the Pacific Ocean to the Rocky Mountain states, and the Eastern Interconnection, which serves states east of the mountains. The Grid, an essential piece of infrastructure, consists of a network of over 7,000 power plants connected by hundreds of thousands of miles of high-voltage transmission lines. According to estimates, there are thousands of power-generating units and 70,000 transformer power substations. Even with the addition of automation and emerging technologies recently, the grid still relies heavily on older tech. 60% of circuit breakers are older than 30 years, while 70% of transmission lines are at least 30 years old, meaning they are nearing the end of their useful lifespans. As a result of the aging infrastructure and rising power consumption, the Grid is now more vulnerable to cascading failures, in which the failure of one component triggers a chain reaction of failures. The growth and expansion of data centers in itself is straining the Grid. Research by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for the Department of Energy shows that data centers' power consumption has tripled in the last ten years and may triple again by 2028. John Moura, Director of Reliability Assessment and System Analysis for the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC) told Reuters that the grid is not built to handle the loss of 1,500-megawatt data centers as they get larger and use more electricity. "Unless we add additional grid resources, it will eventually grow too big to handle." The fundamental truth is that the infrastructure of the US power grid is too outdated to handle the new era of data and growing computational needs. It is also highly susceptible to cyberattacks, EMP, natural disasters, and physical threats, all of which could have disastrous results. The reality of the ecosystem is that the Grid is essential for medical care, food and agriculture, water, data centers, telecommunications, stock exchanges, satellite ground systems, and other important infrastructure. RISKS TO THE GRID The power grid faces a wide range of risks. EMPs from geomagnetic solar flares, short-range missiles fired by terrorists or nation-states, cyberattacks, or physical attacks on utilities or power facilities are all examples of the risk landscape. Solar flares, which originate from storms on the Sun, constitute a persistent menace. Earth is believed to have experienced more than 100 solar storms in the last 150 years. Strong flares release particles of electromagnetic radiation that are aimed toward Earth and other planets in the solar system. The size of the flare, the scale of the coronal mass ejection, and the speed at which it moves from the Sun to Earth all affect how severe a solar storm is. The electrical grid can sustain serious damage from a type of flare known as an X-class flare. It is impossible to overlook the risk. An EMP attack could also be directed. An EMP strike could be carried out by a terrorist organization or rogue state that detonated a nuclear bomb far above the atmosphere, destroying electronics and the electrical grid. Former CIA Director James Woolsey testified before a House committee and said that if the US received an EMP attack, 'two-thirds of the US population would likely perish from starvation, disease, and societal breakdown.' "Natural EMP from a geomagnetic superstorm, like the 1859 Carrington Event or 1921 Railroad Storm, and nuclear EMP attack from terrorists or rogue states, as practiced by North Korea during the nuclear crisis of 2013, are both existential threats that could kill 9 of 10 Americans through starvation, disease, and societal collapse," said the late Dr. Peter Pry, executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and a member of the Congressional EMP Commission. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which acknowledges that hackers have targeted US public utilities control systems, partially protects The Grid. Many of the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) networks used by power companies to manage their industrial systems need to be updated and strengthened to withstand the increasing dangers of cybersecurity. The Russian cyberattack against Ukraine's power grid, which left 700,000 people without power, served as a reminder of the vulnerabilities in the electric grid. Countries need to step up their efforts to prevent cyberattacks on nuclear and other energy systems, according to the World Energy Council. They observe that the frequency, complexity, and expenses of data breaches are rising. The whole U.S. power system and other vital infrastructure might be taken down by a cyberattack launched by multiple nations, according to retired Admiral Mike Rodgers, a former leader of the National Security Agency (NSA) and U.S. Cyber Command. A successful ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline in 2021 offered insight into that vulnerability and the numerous attack points. In addition to disrupting the oil supply of the US East Coast, the attackers showed that there was no cybersecurity structure in place for event response and preparation. The majority of the vital infrastructure components of the U.S. energy grid now function in an internet-accessible digital environment. The trends of hardware and software integration, along with the expansion of networked sensors, are redefining hackers' opportunities for surface attacks. Both industry and the government have identified the vulnerabilities for cyberattacks. The U.S. energy grid is susceptible to cyberattacks, according to the General Accounting Office (GAO). The grid distribution systems, which transport power from transmission systems to customers, have become increasingly vulnerable, according to the GAO, partly because of the growing capabilities of technologies that enable remote access and linkages to business networks. Threat actors might be able to access those systems as a result, thereby interfering with operations. The reality is that artificial intelligence tools are enabling increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks. Criminal groups, state actors, and other entities are also targeting energy-critical infrastructure. The use of operational technology and the industrial internet of things has increased the attack surface. To combat cyber risks, energy infrastructure operators should use "security by design." Building agile systems with operational cyber-fusion is required by design for cybersecurity to monitor, identify, and react to new threats. Ultimately, we need to enhance the cybersecurity of the U.S. energy grid. Another worry is the physical threat posed to the Grid by malevolent acts, particularly by terrorists. A bomb and an incendiary device placed atop a 50,000-gallon fuel tank were used to target and assault a power facility in Nogales, Arizona, a decade ago. Fortunately, the endeavor was unsuccessful. Recently, other terrorist acts by extremist groups have targeted utilities with gunfire and bomb threats. Strategies To Help Protect the Grid There are various ways to lessen threats to the energy infrastructure from physical, existential, and cyber sources. These include spreading out energy sources and using smaller, independent networks; systems to stabilize voltage and devices to manage energy flow; setting better security rules, training, and emergency plans; protecting the grid from power surges and voltage issues; and creating ways to share information about weaknesses and threats. To restore power for various emergencies, systematic resilience planning is also essential. For instance, we should upgrade and replace outdated infrastructure with cutting-edge technology like automation systems, smart meters, and sensors to improve grid efficiency and dependability. Additionally, we should set up independent microgrids on a smaller scale, which can function independently or in tandem with the main grid, to supply localized electricity during emergencies or outages. Cyberattacks are becoming increasingly sophisticated thanks to artificial intelligence tools. Additionally, governmental actors, criminal gangs, and other assailants are targeting vital infrastructure related to energy. Operators of energy infrastructure should use "security by design" to combat cyber threats since connectivity brought about by the introduction of operational technology and the industrial internet of things has further increased the attack surface. For cybersecurity to be able to monitor, identify, and react to new threats, it is necessary to construct agile systems with operational cyber-fusion. Ultimately, we need to significantly improve the cybersecurity of the U.S. energy grid to withstand growing threats. The threat of an EMP is existential and will require more planning and resilience. President Trump signed Executive Order (E.O.) 13865, 'Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses,' on March 26, 2019, making it a national priority program to set resilience and security standards for vital infrastructure in the United States. E.O. 13865 states, 'An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) has the potential to disrupt, degrade, and damage technology and critical infrastructure systems. Human-made or naturally occurring EMPs can affect large geographic areas, disrupting elements critical to the nation's security and economic prosperity, and could adversely affect global commerce and stability. The federal government must foster sustainable, efficient, and cost-effective approaches to improving the nation's resilience to the effects of EMPs.' Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Programs Status Report In an article, 'Cost Analysis: Protecting The Grid and Electronics from EMP,' the authors proposed that a National Resilience Task Force, supported by the U.S. Department of Defense (Northern Command and the National Guard), the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Energy, could undertake a mitigation strategy to protect the U.S. critical infrastructure from the effects of an EMP. This effort could include the following actions: Source: Cost Analysis: Protecting the Grid and Electronics from an EMP - Domestic Preparedness To restore power for various emergencies, comprehensive resilience planning is essential. Current technologies can protect the Grid, requiring only leadership and investment to reduce vulnerabilities. The leadership for resolving the electric grid problem is going to come from the incoming administration. Since the majority of the country's vital infrastructure—such as the banking, healthcare, transportation, and communications systems—is owned by the private sector, it is reliant on the Grid. Co-investment, solid public-private sector partnerships, and cooperation in research, development, and prototyping will all be necessary to find answers. Such collaboration must involve a faster effort to finance and develop innovative technologies that can shield utilities from man-made or natural electromagnetic surges, further secure SCADA network hardware and software from cyberattacks, and improve the Grid's physical security. The investment in preserving civilization is worth it, even though estimates of costs vary. As more people become conscious of the precarious threat landscape and the consequences of inaction, there has been an increasing need for safeguarding The Grid. This heightened consciousness implies a need to act quickly and a mandate to support the incoming administration.
