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Fast Company
3 days ago
- Health
- Fast Company
How game theory explains vaccination rates and parents' choices
When outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles occur despite highly effective vaccines being available, it's easy to conclude that parents who don't vaccinate their children are misguided, selfish, or have fallen prey to misinformation. As professors with expertise in vaccine policy and health economics, we argue that the decision not to vaccinate isn't simply about misinformation or hesitancy. In our view, it involves game theory, a mathematical framework that helps explain how reasonable people can make choices that collectively lead to outcomes that endanger them. Game theory reveals that vaccine hesitancy is not a moral failure, but simply the predictable outcome of a system in which individual and collective incentives aren't properly aligned. Game theory meets vaccines Game theory examines how people make decisions when their outcomes depend on what others choose. In his research on the topic, Nobel Prize-winning mathematician John Nash, portrayed in the movie A Beautiful Mind, showed that in many situations, individually rational choices don't automatically create the best outcome for everyone. Vaccination decisions perfectly illustrate this principle. When a parent decides whether to vaccinate their child against measles, for instance, they weigh the small risk of vaccine side effects against the risks posed by the disease. But here's the crucial insight: The risk of disease depends on what other parents decide. If nearly everyone vaccinates, herd immunity —essentially, vaccinating enough people—will stop the disease's spread. But once herd immunity is achieved, individual parents may decide that not vaccinating is the less risky option for their kid. In other words, because of a fundamental tension between individual choice and collective welfare, relying solely on individual choice may not achieve public health goals. This makes vaccine decisions fundamentally different from most other health decisions. When you decide whether to take medication for high blood pressure, your outcome depends only on your choice. But with vaccines, everyone is connected. This interconnectedness has played out dramatically in Texas, where the largest U.S. measles outbreak in a decade originated. As vaccination rates dropped in certain communities, the disease—once declared eliminated in the U.S.—returned. One county's vaccination rate fell from 96% to 81% over just five years. Considering that about 95% of people in a community must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, the decline created perfect conditions for the current outbreak. This isn't coincidence; it's game theory playing out in real time. When vaccination rates are high, not vaccinating seems rational for each individual family, but when enough families make this choice, collective protection collapses. The free-rider problem This dynamic creates what economists call a free-rider problem. When vaccination rates are high, an individual might benefit from herd immunity without accepting even the minimal vaccine risks. Game theory predicts something surprising: Even with a hypothetically perfect vaccine—faultless efficacy, zero side effects—voluntary vaccination programs will never achieve 100% coverage. Once coverage is high enough, some rational individuals will always choose to be free riders, benefiting from the herd immunity provided by others. And when rates drop, as they have, dramatically, over the past five years, disease models predict exactly what we're seeing: the return of outbreaks. Game theory reveals another pattern: For highly contagious diseases, vaccination rates tend to decline rapidly following safety concerns, while recovery occurs much more slowly. This, too, is a mathematical property of the system because decline and recovery have different incentive structures. When safety concerns arise, many parents get worried at the same time and stop vaccinating, causing vaccination rates to drop quickly. But recovery is slower because it requires both rebuilding trust and overcoming the free-rider problem—each parent waits for others to vaccinate first. Small changes in perception can cause large shifts in behavior. Media coverage, social networks, and health messaging all influence these perceptions, potentially moving communities toward or away from these critical thresholds. Mathematics also predicts how people's decisions about vaccination can cluster. As parents observe others' choices, local norms develop, so the more parents skip the vaccine in a community, the more others are likely to follow suit. Game theorists refer to the resulting pockets of low vaccine uptake as susceptibility clusters. These clusters allow diseases to persist even when overall vaccination rates appear adequate. A 95% statewide or national average could mean uniform vaccine coverage, which would prevent outbreaks. Alternatively, it could mean some areas with near-100% coverage and others with dangerously low rates that enable local outbreaks. Not a moral failure All this means that the dramatic fall in vaccination rates was predicted by game theory, and therefore more a reflection of system vulnerability than of a moral failure of individuals. What's more, blaming parents for making selfish choices can also backfire by making them more defensive and less likely to reconsider their views. Much more helpful would be approaches that acknowledge the tensions between individual and collective interests and that work with, rather than against, the mental calculations informing how people make decisions in interconnected systems. Research shows that communities experiencing outbreaks respond differently to messaging that frames vaccination as a community problem versus messaging that implies moral failure. In a 2021 study of a community with falling vaccination rates, approaches that acknowledged parents' genuine concerns while emphasizing the need for community protection made parents 24% more likely to consider vaccinating, while approaches that emphasized personal responsibility or implied selfishness actually decreased their willingness to consider it. This confirms what game theory predicts: When people feel their decision-making is under moral attack, they often become more entrenched in their positions rather than more open to change. Better communication strategies Understanding how people weigh vaccine risks and benefits points to better approaches to communication. For example, clearly conveying risks can help: The 1-in-500 death rate from measles far outweighs the extraordinarily rare serious vaccine side effects. That may sound obvious, but it's often missing from public discussion. Also, different communities need different approaches: High-vaccination areas need help staying on track, while low-vaccination areas need trust rebuilt. Consistency matters tremendously. Research shows that when health experts give conflicting information or change their message, people become more suspicious and decide to hold off on vaccines. And dramatic scare tactics about disease can backfire by pushing people toward extreme positions. Making vaccination decisions visible within communities—through community discussions and school-level reporting, where possible—can help establish positive social norms. When parents understand that vaccination protects vulnerable community members, like infants too young for vaccines or people with medical conditions, it helps bridge the gap between individual and collective interests.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Health
- Yahoo
Game theory explains why reasonable parents make vaccine choices that fuel outbreaks
When outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles occur despite highly effective vaccines being available, it's easy to conclude that parents who don't vaccinate their children are misguided, selfish or have fallen prey to misinformation. As professors with expertise in vaccine policy and health economics, we argue that the decision not to vaccinate isn't simply about misinformation or hesitancy. In our view, it involves game theory, a mathematical framework that helps explain how reasonable people can make choices that collectively lead to outcomes that endanger them. Game theory reveals that vaccine hesitancy is not a moral failure, but simply the predictable outcome of a system in which individual and collective incentives aren't properly aligned. Game theory examines how people make decisions when their outcomes depend on what others choose. In his research on the topic, Nobel Prize-winning mathematician John Nash, portrayed in the movie 'A Beautiful Mind, showed that in many situations, individually rational choices don't automatically create the best outcome for everyone. Vaccination decisions perfectly illustrate this principle. When a parent decides whether to vaccinate their child against measles, for instance, they weigh the small risk of vaccine side effects against the risks posed by the disease. But here's the crucial insight: The risk of disease depends on what other parents decide. If nearly everyone vaccinates, herd immunity – essentially, vaccinating enough people – will stop the disease's spread. But once herd immunity is achieved, individual parents may decide that not vaccinating is the less risky option for their kid. In other words, because of a fundamental tension between individual choice and collective welfare, relying solely on individual choice may not achieve public health goals. This makes vaccine decisions fundamentally different from most other health decisions. When you decide whether to take medication for high blood pressure, your outcome depends only on your choice. But with vaccines, everyone is connected. This interconnectedness has played out dramatically in Texas, where the largest U.S. measles outbreak in a decade originated. As vaccination rates dropped in certain communities, the disease – once declared eliminated in the U.S. – returned. One county's vaccination rate fell from 96% to 81% over just five years. Considering that about 95% of people in a community must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, the decline created perfect conditions for the current outbreak. This isn't coincidence; it's game theory playing out in real time. When vaccination rates are high, not vaccinating seems rational for each individual family, but when enough families make this choice, collective protection collapses. This dynamic creates what economists call a free rider problem. When vaccination rates are high, an individual might benefit from herd immunity without accepting even the minimal vaccine risks. Game theory predicts something surprising: Even with a hypothetically perfect vaccine – faultless efficacy, zero side effects – voluntary vaccination programs will never achieve 100% coverage. Once coverage is high enough, some rational individuals will always choose to be free riders, benefiting from the herd immunity provided by others. And when rates drop – as they have, dramatically, over the past five years – disease models predict exactly what we're seeing: the return of outbreaks. Game theory reveals another pattern: For highly contagious diseases, vaccination rates tend to decline rapidly following safety concerns, while recovery occurs much more slowly. This, too, is a mathematical property of the system because decline and recovery have different incentive structures. When safety concerns arise, many parents get worried at the same time and stop vaccinating, causing vaccination rates to drop quickly. But recovery is slower because it requires both rebuilding trust and overcoming the free rider problem – each parent waits for others to vaccinate first. Small changes in perception can cause large shifts in behavior. Media coverage, social networks and health messaging all influence these perceptions, potentially moving communities toward or away from these critical thresholds. Mathematics also predicts how people's decisions about vaccination can cluster. As parents observe others' choices, local norms develop – so the more parents skip the vaccine in a community, the more others are likely to follow suit. Game theorists refer to the resulting pockets of low vaccine uptake as susceptibility clusters. These clusters allow diseases to persist even when overall vaccination rates appear adequate. A 95% statewide or national average could mean uniform vaccine coverage, which would prevent outbreaks. Alternatively, it could mean some areas with near-100% coverage and others with dangerously low rates that enable local outbreaks. All this means that the dramatic fall in vaccination rates was predicted by game theory – and therefore more a reflection of system vulnerability than of a moral failure of individuals. What's more, blaming parents for making selfish choices can also backfire by making them more defensive and less likely to reconsider their views. Much more helpful would be approaches that acknowledge the tensions between individual and collective interests and that work with, rather than against, the mental calculations informing how people make decisions in interconnected systems. Research shows that communities experiencing outbreaks respond differently to messaging that frames vaccination as a community problem versus messaging that implies moral failure. In a 2021 study of a community with falling vaccination rates, approaches that acknowledged parents' genuine concerns while emphasizing the need for community protection made parents 24% more likely to consider vaccinating, while approaches that emphasized personal responsibility or implied selfishness actually decreased their willingness to consider it. This confirms what game theory predicts: When people feel their decision-making is under moral attack, they often become more entrenched in their positions rather than more open to change. Understanding how people weigh vaccine risks and benefits points to better approaches to communication. For example, clearly conveying risks can help: The 1-in-500 death rate from measles far outweighs the extraordinarily rare serious vaccine side effects. That may sound obvious, but it's often missing from public discussion. Also, different communities need different approaches – high-vaccination areas need help staying on track, while low-vaccination areas need trust rebuilt. Consistency matters tremendously. Research shows that when health experts give conflicting information or change their message, people become more suspicious and decide to hold off on vaccines. And dramatic scare tactics about disease can backfire by pushing people toward extreme positions. Making vaccination decisions visible within communities – through community discussions and school-level reporting, where possible – can help establish positive social norms. When parents understand that vaccination protects vulnerable community members, like infants too young for vaccines or people with medical conditions, it helps bridge the gap between individual and collective interests. Health care providers remain the most trusted source of vaccine information. When providers understand game theory dynamics, they can address parents' concerns more effectively, recognizing that for most people, hesitancy comes from weighing risks rather than opposing vaccines outright. This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Y. Tony Yang, George Washington University and Avi Dor, George Washington University Read more: Texas records first US measles death in 10 years – a medical epidemiologist explains how to protect yourself and your community from this deadly, preventable disease Driving the best possible bargain now isn't the best long-term strategy, according to game theory Measles is one of the deadliest and most contagious infectious diseases – and one of the most easily preventable The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Web Release
29-05-2025
- Business
- Web Release
GEHRY PARTNERS DESIGNED NEXT PHASE OF BPS DEVELOPMENT TO PROGRESS FOLLOWING PLANNING CONSENT
Planning consent for the next phase of Battersea Power Station has been granted, marking another major step in delivering the vision for the 42-acre regeneration project. Battersea Power Station is to bring forward a new phase of residential, retail, community and leisure development having secured detailed planning approval from Wandsworth Council, completing Electric Boulevard, London's newest high street. This latest phase adds two new Gehry Partners designed residential buildings comprising 306 new homes. They will form an extension to the highly recognisable existing two buildings at Prospect Place, which are fully sold and occupied, and remain the only residential buildings in the UK designed by Frank Gehry, the world-famous architect and designer of the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao. The ongoing focus on sustainability means these latest designs have a more modern aesthetic to reduce the carbon footprint while green roofs will also be present throughout both buildings, contributing to a minimum 10% biodiversity net gain. Gehry Partners' latest additions to the Battersea Power Station streetscape will juxtapose white sculptural facades, in a postmodern interpretation of John Nash's neo-classical terraces that are stereotypical of Regency London, in contrast to the stark industrial brick architecture of the historic Power Station. In a first for Battersea Power Station and in line with the project's objective of creating a truly multigenerational community around the iconic Power Station, one of the new buildings, Prospect Place 3, is proposed to include senior living apartments, to be managed by a specialist operator for over 65s and includes access to additional care and on-site facilities. The second building, Prospect Place 4, will offer 122 new homes. As with Gehry Partners' first two buildings at Battersea Power Station, every home within this latest phase will be unique in design. Both buildings will sit on a communal podium, part of which extends to form a private garden square for residents. Positioned opposite to the new office building, 50 Electric Boulevard, which is over 50% let, and the western entrance of Battersea Power Station's London Underground station that is due to open later this summer, this latest approval allows Battersea Power Station to complete the development of London's newest high street, Electric Boulevard, adding 70,000 sq ft of new commercial space for shops, cafés and restaurants. Existing shops on the high street include children's clothing brand Lindex, Zara, Massimo Dutti, Boots Beauty and Borough Kitchen with more to come including WatchHouse, The Salad Project and R.W. Wolf barbers. This newest phase further extends Battersea Power Station's objective of creating new facilities and opportunities for the local area, expanding the existing community and cultural programme with the addition of a 15,000 sq ft Community Hub. This new civic space will be designed in partnership with Wandsworth Council. Local stakeholders will be consulted on the concept, vision and on the appointment of a specialist community cultural operator, who will curate a programme offering a wide range of events and activities to complement the existing offer. To encourage sustainable and healthy travel to and from Battersea Power Station, the new community facilities include an expanded Bike Hub, adjacent to the new Community Hub, which will have 600 spaces available for all, free of charge. Through its delivery and beyond, this phase will create over 400 jobs, adding to the existing total of over 6,800 jobs Battersea Power Station has provided to date as well as adding to the 2,500 residents who already call it home. Construction is expected to start later this year with completion anticipated in 2029. Frank Gehry, Founder of Gehry Partners, LLP, said: 'I am very happy that the next phase of the Battersea project is underway. These two buildings will help our masterplan, which was designed to create the feeling of a neighbourhood, come to fruition. In keeping the same body language of the original, we have continued the white material of these buildings, referencing the incredible history of the Nash Terraces. The winter gardens help break down the scale of the facades while also giving each unit a beautiful, light-filled space. Our goal from the beginning has been to make something that is unique to London and unique to this incredible new district in the city. I hope that we make the city proud.' James Wixley, Head of Development at Battersea Power Station Development Company (BPSDC), said: 'This milestone is the next step in realising the long-term vision for Battersea Power Station. With detailed planning consent now secured, we're extending Gehry Partners' distinctive architectural legacy, adding new homes while introducing senior living for the first time, and completing Electric Boulevard — London's newest high street. As well as lots of new opportunities in the form of shops, restaurants and jobs, the phase also includes a new Community Hub to support local events and activities which will be designed in close partnership with Wandsworth Council and the wider community. We are moving beyond the halfway point in delivering the masterplan and, together with our Malaysian shareholders, we look forward to starting on site in the coming months as we work towards another key milestone at this incredible regeneration project.' The regeneration of Battersea Power Station has created a vibrant mixed-used destination for London and a sixth town centre for the London Borough of Wandsworth with the Grade II* listed Power Station at its heart. Over 2,200 homes have been delivered to date, including 386 affordable homes at New Mansion Square in partnership with Peabody. The riverside neighbourhood is also home to more than 150 shops, bars, restaurants, and unique leisure experiences, and a thriving office community with over 3,500 office workers based across over 60 different companies, including Apple who has its 500,000 sq ft UK headquarters inside the Power Station. To be kept updated on the residential release for Phase 3C, please register your interest here – For more information about Battersea Power Station please visit and follow @BatterseaPwrStn to keep up to date with the latest news and events.
Forbes
20-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Stunning New Garden Suites Debut At The Trafalgar St. James, London
Exterior of Trafalgar St James hotel, London Stevie Campbell The former headquarters of Cunard, the well known transatlantic shipping company founded in 1840, is today one of London's best-located hotels, the Trafalgar St. James. On the south west corner of the John Nash designed Trafalgar square, the five-star hotel is ideally placed for art lovers, with free admission to the National Gallery and the National Portrait Gallery on the other side of the square. The National Gallery has just unveiled a major refurbishment and rehang of the Sainsbury wing, making it an even better time to see its collection of masterpieces of Western art from Raphael and Leonardo to Cezanne, Turner and Van Gogh. Also nearby is St Martin in the Fields, one of the most famous churches in London, offering wonderful lunchtime and evening classical concerts. National Gallery, St Martin in the Fields and Trafalgar Square getty Trafalgar St. James, part of Hilton's luxury Curio Collection, has recently launched the new Spring Garden Suites, six luxury suites, part of the hotel's £6 million renovation, a full refurbishment of the ground and lower ground floors and the opening of Rockwell Bistro & Wine Bar. The lobby opening into the restaurant and bar feels so much brighter and modern with the renovation. And there are plenty of helpful staff, ensuring that check in is a breeze. A new garden suite at The Trafalgar Pellier Photography The new Spring Garden Suites are tucked away on the lower ground floor but they are astonishingly bright, thanks to a clever lighting system that emulates daylight. The hotel has used innovative lighting company Light Cognitive to create the most realistic lighting effect possible. Light Cognitive used an LED innovation that follows nature's circadian rhythm. The lighting design is claimed to help to improve mood, sleep and health for guests. The warm, sophisticated interiors from from Design LSM (the award-winning studio behind another Hilton property, 100 Queen's Gate and restaurants Cinnamon Bazaar and Gaucho) are from a contrasting palette of bold colors against natural tones of dark oak and rattan. A lounge in new garden suite at the Trafalgar Pellier Photography Each suite has great amenities from a Nespresso Vertuo coffeemaker, a Dyson Supersonic hair dryer and Molton Brown toiletries. As well as being well away from the bustling Trafalgar Square above, a super comfortable bed and a sleep sound machine ensures a restful night's sleep. The six subterranean Spring Garden suites are in addition to the hotel's 131 bedrooms and suites on the upper floors. Rockwell Bistro & Wine Bar at Trafalgar St James, London Pellier Photography The redesigned lobby flows nicely into the elegant new restaurant and bar, also designed by Design LSM. Hotel guests can have breakfast at all-day destination, the Rockwell Bistro & Wine Bar. For guests and outside visitors, the Rockwell is an inviting oasis of calm, right on the corner of London's most famous square, a major tourist destination. The menu offers deli-style dishes and small plates for lunch and dinner, including Sussex Wagyu Beef, cured meats and cheeses. Menu highlights include Iberico ham croquetas and an incredibly delicious vegan pasta dish – Cavatelli with cavolo nero pesto, chilli, and Stracciatella cheese that you'd never guess is vegan. The wine list is comprehensive with wines from 15 countries including some of England's finest sparkling wines. The Rooftop bar at Trafalgar St James Trafalgar St James For panoramic views, The Rooftop definitely deserves its title as one of London's top skyline bars. Sip on the excellent cocktails and enjoy succulent burgers, prawn bao buns or nibbles while surveying Trafalgar Square, the London Eye and many more of the city's most recognisable landmarks. Booking in advance is recommended. An overnight stay in a Garden Suite is from £479 (room only).
Daily Mail
07-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Daily Mail
First look at stunning designs for the Queen Elizabeth II national memorial - and how YOU can have your say
Shortlisted ideas for the Queen Elizabeth II national memorial were unveiled today, including a bronze cast of a Windsor oak tree and a giant canopy of stone lily pads. Other ideas include audio installations with the late Queen's voice and a statue of her next to Prince Philip, and a 'graceful and strong' stone bridge with cascading water. Further options involve a 'tranquil family' of romantic royal gardens inspired by the Georgian architect John Nash and 'forest bathing in the heart of the city'. The public is being asked for its feedback on the five early design concepts for St James's Park in London as part of an online public exhibition which opened today. The competition is being run by Malcolm Reading Consultants, with feedback requested on the proposed designs by May 19. All statues are for illustrative purposes at this stage and a sculptor will be appointed later in the process. Hailed as one of the most significant design initiatives in modern British history, the memorial in the park near Buckingham Palace will provide the public with a permanent memorial to the country's longest-reigning monarch, who died in September 2022 aged 96. A panel of committee members will select the winning concept and work with the team on the final design, which is expected to be unveiled in 2026, which would have been the late Queen's 100th birthday year. The committee will also select an artist, through a separate process, to create a figurative representation of Elizabeth II for the site on The Mall. The final design will be submitted to King Charles III and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for approval. You can click here to have your say after looking at these five design concepts: 1. Foster + Partners A 'tranquil family' of royal gardens inspired by John Nash's original landscape of the park, linked by a natural stone tessellated path by Lord Foster of Foster + Partners with artist Yinka Shonibare, ecologist Professor Nigel Dunnett and landscape architect Michel Desvigne Paysagiste. Other elements include a statue of the Queen alongside Philip on Birdcage Walk next to a Prince Philip Gate and, on the other side of the park, an equestrian statue of the Queen in a new civic space called Queen Elizabeth II Place at Marlborough Gate. The plans also incorporate a contemporary wind sculpture for reflection, audio installations of the Queen's voice, a digital conservatory and a translucent Unity Bridge. 2. Heatherwick Studio Bridge of Togetherness - A memorial walk inspired by the idea of 'togetherness' with 70 lily pad stepping stones by Heatherwick Studio with sculptor and ceramicist Halima Cassell, MRG Studio, Webb Yates and Arup. At the centre of the bridge is a limestone sculpture of the late Queen, whose childhood nickname was Lilibet, protected by a giant canopy of eight carved sculptural lily pads, with the stone chosen because it will 'age with dignity'. An innovative stone bridge over soil, tree roots and water, featuring a gentle cascade of water onto the lake, to represent the late Queen as the bedrock of the nation has been designed by J&L Gibbons with production designer Michael Levine, and William Matthews Associates. It aims to capture a 'meandering flow of geology carrying people through an ephemeral choreography of blossoming and colour beneath the high tree canopy' and includes glades to invite 'forest bathing in the heart of the city'. The Queen's Oak - An exact bronze cast of an 'awe-inspiring' ancient oak from Windsor Great Park, representing the late Queen's strength and endurance and symbolising the monarchy, is the central focus of a design by Tom Stuart-Smith with Jamie Fobert Architects and artist Adam Lowe of Factum Are. The digitally scanned replica tree would stand on a plinth in the lake, with a curved stone bridge as a viewing platform. There would also be a serpentine memorial path, for all ages and abilities, which incorporates inlaid bronze casts of significant objects from the late Queen's life and a 'sonic soundscape' of memories from those she impacted. A thread of pathways and landscapes 'gently woven through the natural fabric' of the park with a pair of 'elegant bridges' have been suggested by WilkinsonEyre with artists Lisa Vandy and Fiona Clarke. Aiming to impose the 'lightest footprint' on the park, the thread, with symbolic spaces for reflection, focuses on seven themes of the late Queen's life - reign, faith, Commonwealth, values, nature, family, and Prince Philip.
