2 days ago
A Trump deal for Palestine could tame Iran's regime
Iran is at its weakest point in decades. Its proxies have been decimated, its economy and infrastructure is in tatters, and its isolation over its nuclear program is deepening. Blackouts stretch on for days, damaging household appliances and spoiling food. Government salaries barely cover basic needs. One asset manager in Tehran described people's mood to me as tired, angry, hungry, and thirsty.
The economic stress is stoking unrest. A nationwide truck drivers' strike began spreading in May. It's a labor dispute, and authorities threatened arrests. But the fear that once controlled the streets is eroding. Videos show ordinary Iranians encouraging striking workers, saying 'damet garm,' or 'more power to you.'
US President Donald Trump can accelerate this decline by removing all that is propping up the regime: the nuclear program and Tehran's adoption of the Palestinian cause. What if Trump's broader ambition for peace in the Middle East holds the key to ending the nuclear standoff and reshaping Iran itself?
The Islamic Republic has long anchored its legitimacy to defending the Palestinian cause, using proxies to pose an existential threat to Israel. Regime officials say that Palestine is the sole reason for their hostility toward Israel. The creation of a Palestinian state — or just a credible process toward one with backing from most Arab states — would strip Tehran of its ideological cover. All that would be left is a government that can't provide its citizens with electricity, salaries, or security.
That's why a Trump-brokered deal for a Palestinian state could break Tehran's narrative, and may produce a peace that extends beyond nuclear containment. And Trump doesn't have to rush on either front because the regime is teetering.
To be sure, regime change is not part of the Trump Doctrine and a peaceful transition to democracy is unlikely. But the combination of a nuclear agreement and a Palestinian state would poke holes in the script the Islamic Republic has been selling for generations, and may finally give Iran's long-suppressed opposition a chance to tell a new story.
Gulf states and Israel are on opposite sides of a nuclear deal. The Gulf aims to be at the center of a new regional order, balancing Israel and Iran, Johns Hopskins professor Vali Nasr writes in Foreign Affairs.
The central hurdle in nuclear talks: Iran's red line on uranium enrichment, The New York Times explains.
