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Reuters
30-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Brazil 2025 Robusta harvest in full swing and could beat estimates, experts say
SAO PAULO, May 30 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2025 Robusta coffee crop collection, including the Conilon variety, is advancing strongly and could beat initial estimates, industry experts told Reuters this week, as the harvest weighs on prices. "Field reports indicate strong yields, and expectations are that the crop may even exceed initial forecasts," said Jonas Ferraresso, a coffee agronomist who advises Brazilian farmers. Public and private sources are pointing towards a record crop, Ferraresso said. Crop collection for Cooabriel - Brazil's largest Conilon coffee cooperative - in the state of Espirito Santo is in full swing, the organization's President Luiz Carlos Bastianello said in an interview, estimating that around 25% of the total harvest had been completed. According to broker StoneX, 23.4% of Brazil's expected 2025 Robusta crop had been harvested as of May 26. "The expectation we have now is really for a larger harvest, possibly larger than the 2022 harvest, a harvest with reasonably good quality as well," Bastianello said, adding that production in Espirito Santo is forecast at over 17 million 60-kilogram (132.3 lb) bags. In the 2022 harvest, some 16 million 60-kilogram bags were harvested, Bastianello said. Unseasonable rainfall in the region during the current harvest is not an issue and could suggest a good Conilon crop in 2026, he added. Prices for the commodity have declined as the new crop is collected, said Fernando Maximiliano, coffee market intelligence manager for broker StoneX in Brazil. "Robusta coffee (prices) have been falling significantly in recent weeks. This is already a sign of the arrival of this new harvest," Maximiliano said. Earlier this week, Robusta coffee futures on ICE fell to a 5-1/2 month low of $4,550 per metric ton. The potential for a record crop is causing "significant urgency" among Robusta growers to harvest and sell, Ferraresso said. "The concern now is how this increased supply might affect prices in the coming months."
Reuters
28-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Brazil 2025 Arabica coffee harvest showing smaller crop with better beans, experts say
SAO PAULO, May 28 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2025 Arabica coffee harvest is starting with mixed sentiment as ground operations confirm forecasts of a smaller crop during a so-called off year, while bean size shows improvement, industry experts told Reuters this week. In the Cerrado Mineiro region, where producers have collected around 4% of the expected crop, an average of 30% to 40% of beans have a screen size of 17-18, said Wellis Caixeta, coffee purchasing manager for cooperative Expocacer. Screen size 17-18 is near the top of the scale and bigger beans more easily fill the 60-kilogram (132.3-lb) bags that coffee is sold in. "It's very good and much better than in previous years," Caixeta said, adding the results could indicate a harvest with a better yield. The proportion of so-called peaberry coffee beans, which resemble peas instead of sporting two flat sides, is also slightly higher, Caixeta added. Productivity for Arabica coffee is leaning towards the lower end, confirming forecasts, said Jonas Ferraresso, a coffee agronomist who advises Brazilian farmers. The biennial Arabica coffee cycle alternates between years of higher and lower production, with 2025 expected to be an off year. "It's rare to find farms with high productivity this year," Ferraresso said, adding that harvesting has started in most areas. Dry weather earlier in the season led to poorly developed and undersized beans in the top third of many trees, while coffee cherries that ripened earlier have already dropped to the ground and will likely also be of lower quality, Ferraresso said. "I estimate that around 20% to 30% of the Arabica crop will consist of defective or lower-quality beans, while 70% to 80% will be of good quality," he said. Arabica output is expected to decline 13.5% in the 2025 crop, said Fernando Maximiliano, coffee market intelligence manager for broker StoneX in Brazil. While Ferraresso expects less than 10% of the crop to be harvested so far, StoneX estimates that just over 12% of Arabica has been collected as of May 26, Maximiliano said. With low Arabica stocks in storage, StoneX expects availability to increase towards mid-June, Maximiliano said, adding that the arrival of a colder front could slow harvesting. "Forecasts show the arrival of a polar front," Maximiliano said. "If that happens, everything will change."
