12-02-2025
Eno Sarris' 2025 starting pitcher fantasy rankings with Stuff+ powered projections
For years, it's been harder to project pitchers than hitters — for a whole host of reasons. They get injured more and stay injured longer, yes, but they also see their performance change dramatically and quickly in ways that hitters don't. Think of a pitcher debuting a new pitch: He's probably a whole new pitcher now, not just the same guy who will return to his previous norms. There really isn't a corollary for hitters.
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But analysts have been hard at work narrowing the gaps. New tools that incorporate physical data from pitches as well as the pitchers' bodies, paired with better statistical techniques, have improved our pitcher projections. The rankings here attempt to synthesize contemporary research the best way we can. That work includes metrics that will be published here, as well as some behind-the-scenes help:
• Pitching+ and the associated Stuff+ and Location+ models
• Jordan Rosenblum's stuff-powered projections (ppERA% and ppK%)
• Jeff Zimmerman's health grades, which he publishes in The Process
• Baseball Prospectus' new arsenal grades
• Hand-projected innings totals based on health grades, team tendencies, and depth charts
The very best pitchers have elite Stuff+. They locate the ball well as evidenced by their historical walk and Location+ rates. They project well once their park, age, and relevant production are correctly weighted. They have good health grades based on their fastball velocity, age, and number and timing of arm injuries. And they have wide arsenals that can surprise the hitter with a mix of different pitches, shapes and velocities. They've built up the bulk needed to go deep into the season and are on a team likely to go with a standard five-man rotation.
Well, wait, that's just Paul Skenes. For everyone else, we have to figure out how to weigh their different strengths and flaws. That introduces some human bias, but also some opportunity, because every projection system makes its own choices about what goes into the meat grinder, and so there's a little subjectivity in every effort anyway. A human might just find the pitchers who fall between the cracks in every system.
As an example, Stuff+ has fared remarkably well in predicting the future based on a single model that uses only physical characteristics of pitches as inputs, but as the marketplace has produced more versions of the statistic, it was time for a refresh. The newest numbers, found here and also at FanGraphs in sortable leaderboards, split the single model into multiple ones (swing, take, foul, ball in play, etc), and added features like arm slot (which recently became available at Baseball Savant). In the future, we may find a way to fold in the type of arsenal work being done at Baseball Prospectus and Driveline into the stuff models to have a better idea of how starter's pitch mixes work, how they change performance and how they can be optimized.
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In the meantime, a human can try to look at these different models and weigh them the best they can.
This is a fantasy ranking, so a tough home park might hide the fact that some of these pitchers would be ranked higher in different parks. My bias is toward 15-team leagues with no injured list — you may find that if your league has unlimited IL spots, you'd want to push up the pitchers with great per-inning numbers and lower innings projections. They shouldn't be hard to find; they ended up clustered together. In a shallower league, you may also want to skip over some of the more boring veterans in the back half of the top 100 in favor of riskier, younger pitchers with less of a track record (say, pick a Kumar Rocker or Jackson Jobe over a Mitch Keller or Max Scherzer). If they don't work out, your wire is more likely to have a decent replacement waiting for you. As with years past, this google doc will house some goodies during the season like minor league Stuff+ numbers as well as deeper looks at the player pool.
Last year, these ranks produced cheap gems like Seth Lugo, Nestor Cortes, Cristopher Sánchez, Michael King, Bryan Woo, Shota Imanaga, Luis Gil and Jared Jones — along with some mistakes we can learn from. Best of luck as you search for the right pitching staff in your leagues this year.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Chris Szagola / Associated Press; Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire; Duane Burleson / Associated Press)
