Latest news with #JosephBriggs
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Goldman Sachs warns tariffs won't help the U.S. boost manufacturing productivity as tech in American factories continues to lag
U.S. manufacturing has decelerated recently, both as a result of increased competition from China and as part of a broader manufacturing productivity slowdown. Goldman Sachs analysts argue tariffs will not lower supply chain and labor costs enough to boost reshoring, and instead, increased automation will be the most likely driver of a manufacturing productivity boost. As China continues to best the United States in manufacturing capabilities, tariffs may not be America's best bet to boost factory productivity. Instead, the U.S. should look to AI and automation to gain an edge in manufacturing, Goldman Sachs analysts argue. President Donald Trump aspires to return factory jobs to American shores by imposing steep tariffs on U.S. manufacturing rivals, but the taxes can only incentivize reshoring so much, analysts said in a note published Thursday. Instead, manufacturers should look to automation and the ever-more-accessible artificial intelligence as their best chance for boosting domestic manufacturing. 'A pickup in the pace of innovation—potentially from recent advances in robotics and generative AI—therefore remains the catalyst most likely to reverse the long-run stagnation in manufacturing productivity,' analyst Joseph Briggs and colleagues said in the note. As China capitalizes on automation and cheaper labor to grow its export footprint, the Bank of America Institute has found mounting evidence of a recent U.S. manufacturing slowdown, including U.S. Census Bureau data showing new orders for manufactured durable goods decreasing 6.3% in April. The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has fallen since March, also indicating a contraction. The U.S.'s productivity woes are part of a larger manufacturing productivity slowdown happening over the last two decades as a result of investment pullback following the global financial crisis, as well as a slowdown in the burst of technological advancements of the early 2000s, according to Goldman Sachs. Trump's tariff plans for China—which the president has not disclosed, despite touting a new trade deal—aim to help the U.S. claw back manufacturing opportunities from its economic rival. But while they make consumers' lives more expensive, they are not a panacea for manufacturers, the bank argued in its note. 'Tariffs are unlikely to result in much reshoring because production costs in other countries are well below the U.S.' for most products (even after accounting for tariffs), and China will likely continue to grow its exports on the back of cost advantages and industrial policy support,' the note said. Instead, analyst Briggs said, the U.S. should focus on another area in which it's lagging: automation. The U.S. has trailed other manufacturing giants in implementing AI into factory operations, according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Henderson Institute report released earlier this month. Only 46% of U.S. respondents of BCG's Global Manufacturing Survey of 1,000 manufacturers reported multiple use cases of AI in their plants, falling short of the 62% average and lagging behind China's 77%. 'This is one of the key technologies that I think could drive productivity growth in a cost-competitive manner,' Briggs told Fortune. 'And we just haven't seen that occur on a meaningful scale yet.' The U.S. did not previously invest in factory automation as a result of a 'hangover' from the global financial crisis, Briggs said, but the U.S. now has a real shot at prioritizing factory technology updates, given the growing ubiquity and therefore affordability of automation and AI. Companies such as aviation precision parts-maker MSP Manufacturing have already begun to adapt accordingly. MSP president and chief operating officer Johnny Goode recently learned of an AI-powered software able to program the machine building the precision parts, reducing production time from an hour and a half to seven minutes per part—plus 15 minutes necessary for a human operator to refine it. 'I was like, holy snap, this is going to be a game changer,' Goode told Fortune's Jeremy Kahn this week. 'Going from 90 minutes to 22 minutes is a big deal, and we've seen that get even better as we've learned to use the software more.' Goldman Sachs analysts conceded that while automation provides the largest area for growth in manufacturing productivity in the U.S., it is unlikely to solve the broader manufacturing slowdown, which is global. The slowdown is 'historically unusual,' Briggs said, with the maturation of the tech sector the likely culprit. Any hope for a global uptick in productivity would come from mass advancement and adoption of AI and robotics on a large scale. 'The main thing that would drive a large pickup in manufacturing productivity and manufacturing growth would be a sharp increase in the pace of innovation,' Briggs said. 'And this type of inflection upwards and technological progress are very hard to predict.' Advancement in tech could have a two-fold benefit for domestic manufacturing productivity, both in driving factory investments and in bettering technology to be installed in factories to automate tasks. But with the specifics of the future of AI and automation applications still unknown, it's difficult to predict whether a reversal of a domestic manufacturing slowdown is truly possible. 'We just need to see it happen before we have a lot of confidence in that dynamic being a big driver,' Briggs said. This story was originally featured on
CNBC
20-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Chinese exporters are offering sweet deals to U.S. businesses. They often come wrapped in fraud
Chinese exporters are offering lucrative deals to U.S. customers with promises of bearing the full burden of tariffs. Look beneath and there's a web of illicit activity that's propping up these shipments from China. By using the "delivered-duty-paid" shipping approach where sellers pay for all import duties, and by under-invoicing shipments, some Chinese sellers are able to offer U.S. customers pre-tariff prices, while still turning a profit, according to legal experts and industry veterans. Here's how the scheme plays out: Chinese exporters, often through freight forwarders — companies that handle the logistics of shipping merchandise — understate the value of goods or mislabel them, often both, in the shipping documents to draw lesser duties. Shipments are then routed through shell companies, registered under names of foreign entities or individuals, that act as "importers of record," which the U.S. government deems responsible for the accuracy of customs filings and all applicable duties. Importers are required to secure a minimum $50,000 customs bond from U.S. surety providers as a guarantee to the government that they will pay tariffs. When they fail to settle the tariffs on time, the bond covers the duties. Once the bond has been utilized, often these shell companies default and cease operations, only to quickly set up a new entity — and the cycle repeats. "Often these companies don't bother to file bankruptcy. They simply turn off the phone, close email accounts, and choose whatever mailing address they have [to open a new firm]," said David Forgue, partner at Chicago-based law firm Barnes, Richardson & Colburn, making it difficult for the surety to chase them for tariff reimbursement. This tactic is not new. "The incentive to underreport always exists while tariffs are in place, said Joseph Briggs, managing director at Goldman Sachs. Now, it has gained greater momentum, as businesses scramble to sidestep the new levies imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in his second term. A search for "double clearance and all tax inclusive" on Chinese social media Xiaohongshu turns up numerous ads promising cheap delivery for furniture, refrigerators and other big-ticket houseware goods to the U.S. ports, with all tariff fees included. Many are able to offer such deals by under-valuing and misclassifying shipments, industry veterans told CNBC. "It's an open secret in the industry," said Ash Monga, founder and CEO of Guangzhou-based Imex Sourcing Services, a supply chain management company. "Opening a shell company is easy, you can do that in a couple of hours. You can open as many companies as you want. The cost is a few hundreds, so this whole process is easy to execute and can be replicated as many times as you want," Monga added. Adopting this practice is being increasingly discussed among U.S. firms sourcing in China, as businesses look to skirt Trump's latest tariffs, he said. An owner of a Guangdong-based electronics manufacturer told CNBC on condition of anonymity that there have been an increase in U.S. buyers pushing Chinese suppliers to go down this route. China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, a trade body under the Ministry of Commerce, did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment. American businesses are underestimating civil and criminal risks, whether they actively pressure their suppliers to circumvent tariffs or are unwitting beneficiaries of the practice, legal and customs experts warned. "It is scary how businesspeople, like 90% [of them], believe that if they are not listed as the official importer of record, they are somehow immune from any civil or criminal liability for the import," said Dan Harris, an attorney and partner at Seattle-based law firm Harris Sliwoski. There is also a rise in cases where businesses are being hit with tariff payments, even though they are not the designated importers on record. Harris said there's been an increase in his clients facing unexpected customs bills and seized shipments, as the overseas sellers failed to settle import duties. It is "a horrible game" for U.S. businesses complicit in this scheme, as they could face substantial liability under the customs law and other laws like the False Claims Act, said Forgue. For businesses still paying pre-tariff prices on imports from China, claiming ignorance of potential customs fraud is unlikely to stand as a credible defense, Harris warned. "There's no way an American company that had been paying $20 for products, paid only $25" when there was a double-digit tariff, Harris said. The importers could request their suppliers for a copy of the customs documents to check classification and declared values to mitigate risks, Harris said. Businesses worry that competitors accepting these deals may undercut prices, leaving law-abiding firms at a disadvantage. "Consumers are most likely to choose the cheapest options and it will be very difficult to compete with people who do business illegally," said Cze-Chao Tam, founder and CEO of Trinity International, a California-based houseware provider. The company manufactures and sources its items from China and Southeast Asia, besides the U.S. Facing import duties of up to 55%, Tam is negotiating with key buyers on price hikes. "Our buyers are not going to accept a full pass-through," she said, adding that she expects the company's margins to take a hit. Trump's tariff policy is a giant stress test for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, or CBP — the government body tasked with collecting tariffs and policing imports. "There's a massive volume of trade coming in from China and other countries ... there just simply wouldn't be enough resources to be able to to screen them all," said Alex Capri, a former U.S. customs officer in Los Angeles. As the CBP inspect only a fraction of incoming cargos, a "laser-focused" cargo selectivity system that sorts high-risk shipments and determine the type of examination required becomes increasingly crucial in curbing tariff evasion through under-invoicing and mislabeling, said Capri. Underscoring how enforcing tariffs could be tricky, Trump had to delay the repeal of duty-free imports of low-cost packages from China to put enforcement procedures and systems in place. In April, there was a 10-hour "glitch" in the customs system that prevented importers from inputting a code that would have exempted freight already on water from being subjected to higher duties. Illicit transshipment, where goods are routed through a third-country to conceal their Chinese origin, has also been used to dodge tariffs at the risk of fines and jail time. A Goldman Sachs' report released in January estimated that the tariffs Trump imposed on China during his first term saw evasions worth $110 billion to $130 billion in 2023, with understating value and mislabeling each contributing $40 billion and rerouting accounting for $30 billion to $50 billion. In comparison, the total duty, taxes and fees collected by CBP in fiscal 2023 was $92.3 billion, according to government data. To curb illicit tariff evasion, Capri expects the U.S. government to put pressure on foreign governments during ongoing trade negotiations to enhance law enforcement efforts at the point of departure. "You simply cannot wait until the cargo is either on the water or arriving at the U.S. port," he said, adding that it will be more efficient to put the onus on the exporting country. Matthew Galeotti, the head of the Justice Department's Criminal Division, issued a new guidance last week that that prioritized trade and customs fraud, particularly tariff evasion, as one of the focus areas for investigation and prosecution. Trump has said the federal government is taking in $2 billion a day from tariffs. While official figures indicate that was an overstatement, customs duties collected did hit a record level in April, totaling $16.3 billion, according to data from U.S. Treasury Department. A CBP spokesperson told CNBC that tariff enforcement was being done through "a combination of legal authority, advanced systems, and operational procedures designed to ensure that duties owed are paid." "As a result of recent presidential actions, enforcement will include the most severe penalties permitted by law," the spokesperson said.
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Expanding Generative AI with Databricks Deal
We recently published a list of . In this article, we are going to take a look at where Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) stands against Coatue's other most important AI stocks. Artificial intelligence (AI) has fueled a major rally in the technology sector, driving up key market indices. Over the past year, the S&P 500, heavily influenced by tech giants, has risen by nearly 22%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite has surged over 26%. Initially, market analysts had predicted an increase in interest around growth options for 2024 due to easing inflation and potential rate cuts. However, AI has taken this expected interest and amplified it into an economy-wide wave of optimism. While tech stocks have been the primary beneficiaries, AI's influence is expanding across industries such as manufacturing, supply chain, transportation, entertainment, and retail. Investment in AI is growing rapidly across various sectors. A recent Goldman Sachs report estimates that global businesses will invest nearly $1 trillion in AI infrastructure over the next few years. Venture capital (VC) investments in AI startups are also on the rise. In the first half of 2024 alone, VC firms made approximately 200 AI-related deals, injecting nearly $22 billion into the sector. The average AI startup funding round now exceeds $100 million, with company valuations averaging over $1 billion. In contrast, non-AI startups typically receive around $20 million in funding and have valuations near $200 million, indicating AI's outsized appeal to investors. Companies that were early adopters of AI have experienced significant gains, particularly those specializing in graphics processing units (GPUs), AI chips, and generative AI technologies. The median returns of AI-linked firms in the S&P 500 stand at 20%, compared to just 2% for non-AI stocks. AI companies are also responsible for 90% of the total returns on the NASDAQ Composite Index. These gains are expected to drive earnings growth and contribute to broader economic expansion. According to Joseph Briggs, a senior global economist at Goldman Sachs, AI is projected to automate 25% of all work tasks in the next decade, increasing US productivity by 9% and boosting GDP growth by more than 6%. Read more about these developments by accessing 10 Best AI Data Center Stocks and 10 Buzzing AI Stocks According to Goldman Sachs. Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management argues that AI could be the start of a new 'super cycle' in the tech industry. Previous cycles included the rise of personal computers in the 1980s, networking in the 1990s, wired internet in the 2000s, and mobile internet in the 2010s, leading to the cloud era. However, software and internet experts Kash Rangan and Eric Sheridan highlight a key difference: this time, companies are linking AI investments directly to revenue generation, providing a financial safety net that was absent in past cycles. Since the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in early 2023, the industry's focus has shifted from software to AI hardware and infrastructure. AI infrastructure companies have collectively added nearly $6 trillion to their market capitalization since Q1 2023. Before large-scale AI automation becomes commonplace—MIT economist Daron Acemoglu estimates this will take more than a decade—AI infrastructure is expanding into areas such as utilities, energy, internet, and industrials. Interestingly, companies in these sectors that support AI development have posted returns rivaling those of traditional AI firms. The growing demand for AI-driven data centers is also driving investments in the energy and utilities sectors. Goldman Sachs analysts Carly Davenport and Alberto Gandolf expect AI adoption to drive a surge in electricity demand not seen in decades. However, whether AI's growth will align with energy infrastructure investments remains uncertain due to regulatory constraints and supply chain limitations in the utilities sector. Even if necessary investments materialize, their full benefits may take years to reach AI companies. Read more about these developments by accessing 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock and Beyond the Tech Giants: 35 Non-Tech AI Opportunities. Some investors remain cautious, fearing an AI bubble similar to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s. However, current data suggests that AI valuations are far more grounded than those of the dot-com era. At the height of the dot-com bubble, software firms traded at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 132x, compared to a five-year average of 37x in 1999. In contrast, in 2023, even the biggest AI stocks had P/E ratios around 39x, with a five-year average of 40x. These figures suggest that AI valuations are not overinflated, reinforcing investor confidence in AI's long-term potential. AI companies are increasingly targeting multi-trillion-dollar valuations, comparable to today's largest software and internet firms. Over the past decade, tech giants have scaled their businesses to unprecedented levels, combining billions of users, hundreds of billions in revenue, and tens of billions in net income. Today, a handful of firms account for 80% of the valuation of the Fortune 500. These companies dominate industries such as smartphones, e-commerce, cloud computing, and software-as-a-service (SaaS), all of which AI is poised to disrupt. As a result, these firms are aggressively incorporating AI into their business strategies to maintain market leadership. Some investors worry that AI firms could overshadow software companies, impacting long-term valuations. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for software stocks, which peaked in 2021, is now at an all-time low. Slower earnings growth has also contributed to negative sentiment in the sector. Coatue's research shows that over the next twelve months, only 1% of SaaS companies expect 30% earnings growth, down from 30% during the SaaS boom. However, as human-machine interaction shifts towards natural language processing and generative AI, software companies that successfully integrate AI into their platforms are likely to thrive. As inflation cools, rate hikes ease, and prospects for a soft economic landing improve, AI's macroeconomic outlook remains strong. AI is now the primary driver of future earnings growth in the S&P 500. According to Coatue's projections, AI-linked stocks are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 20% over the next three years, outperforming non-AI stocks by approximately 14%. Additionally, 40% of future tech sector earnings are expected to be fueled by AI advancements. All available data points to a bright future for AI investments, with its influence extending far beyond traditional tech firms. As companies continue integrating AI into their operations, productivity and economic growth are set to accelerate, making AI one of the most transformative forces in modern history. For this article, we selected AI stocks by combing through a note on the AI industry by Coatue Management. These stocks are also popular among other hedge funds. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (). A customer entering an internet retail store, illustrating the convenience of online shopping. Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 286 Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) operates as a technology conglomerate with core interests in the ecommerce business. In the report for the third quarter of 2024, operating cash flow increased 57% to $112.7 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $71.7 billion for the trailing twelve months ended September of the prior year. Free cash flow also increased to $47.7 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $21.4 billion for the trailing twelve months ended September of the prior year. This demonstrates the company's strong cash generation, with significant improvements in both operating cash flow and free cash flow over the past year. In addition, the company's strategic collaboration with Databricks aims to accelerate the development of custom models built with Databricks Mosaic AI on AWS and for Databricks to leverage AWS Trainium chips as the preferred AI chip. This would help customers improve price performance when building generative AI applications, solidifying the company's position in the competitive market. Overall, AMZN ranks 1st on our list of Coatue's most important AI stocks. While we acknowledge the potential of AMZN as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for a stock that is more promising than AMZN but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and Complete List of 59 AI Companies Under $2 Billion in Market Cap Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV): AI-Optimized Energy Solutions Driving Efficiency
We recently published a list of . In this article, we are going to take a look at where GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:GEV) stands against Coatue's other most important AI stocks. Artificial intelligence (AI) has fueled a major rally in the technology sector, driving up key market indices. Over the past year, the S&P 500, heavily influenced by tech giants, has risen by nearly 22%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite has surged over 26%. Initially, market analysts had predicted an increase in interest around growth options for 2024 due to easing inflation and potential rate cuts. However, AI has taken this expected interest and amplified it into an economy-wide wave of optimism. While tech stocks have been the primary beneficiaries, AI's influence is expanding across industries such as manufacturing, supply chain, transportation, entertainment, and retail. Investment in AI is growing rapidly across various sectors. A recent Goldman Sachs report estimates that global businesses will invest nearly $1 trillion in AI infrastructure over the next few years. Venture capital (VC) investments in AI startups are also on the rise. In the first half of 2024 alone, VC firms made approximately 200 AI-related deals, injecting nearly $22 billion into the sector. The average AI startup funding round now exceeds $100 million, with company valuations averaging over $1 billion. In contrast, non-AI startups typically receive around $20 million in funding and have valuations near $200 million, indicating AI's outsized appeal to investors. Companies that were early adopters of AI have experienced significant gains, particularly those specializing in graphics processing units (GPUs), AI chips, and generative AI technologies. The median returns of AI-linked firms in the S&P 500 stand at 20%, compared to just 2% for non-AI stocks. AI companies are also responsible for 90% of the total returns on the NASDAQ Composite Index. These gains are expected to drive earnings growth and contribute to broader economic expansion. According to Joseph Briggs, a senior global economist at Goldman Sachs, AI is projected to automate 25% of all work tasks in the next decade, increasing US productivity by 9% and boosting GDP growth by more than 6%. Read more about these developments by accessing 10 Best AI Data Center Stocks and 10 Buzzing AI Stocks According to Goldman Sachs. Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management argues that AI could be the start of a new 'super cycle' in the tech industry. Previous cycles included the rise of personal computers in the 1980s, networking in the 1990s, wired internet in the 2000s, and mobile internet in the 2010s, leading to the cloud era. However, software and internet experts Kash Rangan and Eric Sheridan highlight a key difference: this time, companies are linking AI investments directly to revenue generation, providing a financial safety net that was absent in past cycles. Since the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in early 2023, the industry's focus has shifted from software to AI hardware and infrastructure. AI infrastructure companies have collectively added nearly $6 trillion to their market capitalization since Q1 2023. Before large-scale AI automation becomes commonplace—MIT economist Daron Acemoglu estimates this will take more than a decade—AI infrastructure is expanding into areas such as utilities, energy, internet, and industrials. Interestingly, companies in these sectors that support AI development have posted returns rivaling those of traditional AI firms. The growing demand for AI-driven data centers is also driving investments in the energy and utilities sectors. Goldman Sachs analysts Carly Davenport and Alberto Gandolf expect AI adoption to drive a surge in electricity demand not seen in decades. However, whether AI's growth will align with energy infrastructure investments remains uncertain due to regulatory constraints and supply chain limitations in the utilities sector. Even if necessary investments materialize, their full benefits may take years to reach AI companies. Read more about these developments by accessing 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock and Beyond the Tech Giants: 35 Non-Tech AI Opportunities. Some investors remain cautious, fearing an AI bubble similar to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s. However, current data suggests that AI valuations are far more grounded than those of the dot-com era. At the height of the dot-com bubble, software firms traded at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 132x, compared to a five-year average of 37x in 1999. In contrast, in 2023, even the biggest AI stocks had P/E ratios around 39x, with a five-year average of 40x. These figures suggest that AI valuations are not overinflated, reinforcing investor confidence in AI's long-term potential. AI companies are increasingly targeting multi-trillion-dollar valuations, comparable to today's largest software and internet firms. Over the past decade, tech giants have scaled their businesses to unprecedented levels, combining billions of users, hundreds of billions in revenue, and tens of billions in net income. Today, a handful of firms account for 80% of the valuation of the Fortune 500. These companies dominate industries such as smartphones, e-commerce, cloud computing, and software-as-a-service (SaaS), all of which AI is poised to disrupt. As a result, these firms are aggressively incorporating AI into their business strategies to maintain market leadership. Some investors worry that AI firms could overshadow software companies, impacting long-term valuations. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for software stocks, which peaked in 2021, is now at an all-time low. Slower earnings growth has also contributed to negative sentiment in the sector. Coatue's research shows that over the next twelve months, only 1% of SaaS companies expect 30% earnings growth, down from 30% during the SaaS boom. However, as human-machine interaction shifts towards natural language processing and generative AI, software companies that successfully integrate AI into their platforms are likely to thrive. As inflation cools, rate hikes ease, and prospects for a soft economic landing improve, AI's macroeconomic outlook remains strong. AI is now the primary driver of future earnings growth in the S&P 500. According to Coatue's projections, AI-linked stocks are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 20% over the next three years, outperforming non-AI stocks by approximately 14%. Additionally, 40% of future tech sector earnings are expected to be fueled by AI advancements. All available data points to a bright future for AI investments, with its influence extending far beyond traditional tech firms. As companies continue integrating AI into their operations, productivity and economic growth are set to accelerate, making AI one of the most transformative forces in modern history. For this article, we selected AI stocks by combing through a note on the AI industry by Coatue Management. These stocks are also popular among other hedge funds. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (). Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 89 GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:GEV) is an energy company that engages in the provision of various products and services that generate, transfer, orchestrate, convert, and store electricity. The firm demonstrated a strong financial performance in 2024, with revenues reaching $18.1 billion, a 4% increase from the previous year, and a segment EBITDA margin improvement of 260 basis points to 12.5%. This growth is attributed to robust demand for gas power equipment and services. The company has been actively integrating AI into its operations to enhance efficiency and sustainability. For instance, GE Vernova's Autonomous Tuning leverages AI and machine learning to automate gas turbine tuning, optimizing performance under varying conditions and contributing to fuel cost savings. In partnership with Chevron and Engine No. 1, GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) plans to construct natural gas power stations to support AI data centers in the US. This initiative aims to provide up to 4 gigawatts of power by the end of 2027. Overall, GEV ranks 13th on our list of Coatue's most important AI stocks. While we acknowledge the potential of GEV as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for a stock that is more promising than GEV but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and Complete List of 59 AI Companies Under $2 Billion in Market Cap Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): AI Revenue Soars with Data Center Growth
We recently published a list of . In this article, we are going to take a look at where NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stands against Coatue's other most important AI stocks. Artificial intelligence (AI) has fueled a major rally in the technology sector, driving up key market indices. Over the past year, the S&P 500, heavily influenced by tech giants, has risen by nearly 22%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite has surged over 26%. Initially, market analysts had predicted an increase in interest around growth options for 2024 due to easing inflation and potential rate cuts. However, AI has taken this expected interest and amplified it into an economy-wide wave of optimism. While tech stocks have been the primary beneficiaries, AI's influence is expanding across industries such as manufacturing, supply chain, transportation, entertainment, and retail. Investment in AI is growing rapidly across various sectors. A recent Goldman Sachs report estimates that global businesses will invest nearly $1 trillion in AI infrastructure over the next few years. Venture capital (VC) investments in AI startups are also on the rise. In the first half of 2024 alone, VC firms made approximately 200 AI-related deals, injecting nearly $22 billion into the sector. The average AI startup funding round now exceeds $100 million, with company valuations averaging over $1 billion. In contrast, non-AI startups typically receive around $20 million in funding and have valuations near $200 million, indicating AI's outsized appeal to investors. Companies that were early adopters of AI have experienced significant gains, particularly those specializing in graphics processing units (GPUs), AI chips, and generative AI technologies. The median returns of AI-linked firms in the S&P 500 stand at 20%, compared to just 2% for non-AI stocks. AI companies are also responsible for 90% of the total returns on the NASDAQ Composite Index. These gains are expected to drive earnings growth and contribute to broader economic expansion. According to Joseph Briggs, a senior global economist at Goldman Sachs, AI is projected to automate 25% of all work tasks in the next decade, increasing US productivity by 9% and boosting GDP growth by more than 6%. Read more about these developments by accessing 10 Best AI Data Center Stocks and 10 Buzzing AI Stocks According to Goldman Sachs. Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management argues that AI could be the start of a new 'super cycle' in the tech industry. Previous cycles included the rise of personal computers in the 1980s, networking in the 1990s, wired internet in the 2000s, and mobile internet in the 2010s, leading to the cloud era. However, software and internet experts Kash Rangan and Eric Sheridan highlight a key difference: this time, companies are linking AI investments directly to revenue generation, providing a financial safety net that was absent in past cycles. Since the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in early 2023, the industry's focus has shifted from software to AI hardware and infrastructure. AI infrastructure companies have collectively added nearly $6 trillion to their market capitalization since Q1 2023. Before large-scale AI automation becomes commonplace—MIT economist Daron Acemoglu estimates this will take more than a decade—AI infrastructure is expanding into areas such as utilities, energy, internet, and industrials. Interestingly, companies in these sectors that support AI development have posted returns rivaling those of traditional AI firms. The growing demand for AI-driven data centers is also driving investments in the energy and utilities sectors. Goldman Sachs analysts Carly Davenport and Alberto Gandolf expect AI adoption to drive a surge in electricity demand not seen in decades. However, whether AI's growth will align with energy infrastructure investments remains uncertain due to regulatory constraints and supply chain limitations in the utilities sector. Even if necessary investments materialize, their full benefits may take years to reach AI companies. Read more about these developments by accessing 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock and Beyond the Tech Giants: 35 Non-Tech AI Opportunities. Some investors remain cautious, fearing an AI bubble similar to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s. However, current data suggests that AI valuations are far more grounded than those of the dot-com era. At the height of the dot-com bubble, software firms traded at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 132x, compared to a five-year average of 37x in 1999. In contrast, in 2023, even the biggest AI stocks had P/E ratios around 39x, with a five-year average of 40x. These figures suggest that AI valuations are not overinflated, reinforcing investor confidence in AI's long-term potential. AI companies are increasingly targeting multi-trillion-dollar valuations, comparable to today's largest software and internet firms. Over the past decade, tech giants have scaled their businesses to unprecedented levels, combining billions of users, hundreds of billions in revenue, and tens of billions in net income. Today, a handful of firms account for 80% of the valuation of the Fortune 500. These companies dominate industries such as smartphones, e-commerce, cloud computing, and software-as-a-service (SaaS), all of which AI is poised to disrupt. As a result, these firms are aggressively incorporating AI into their business strategies to maintain market leadership. Some investors worry that AI firms could overshadow software companies, impacting long-term valuations. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for software stocks, which peaked in 2021, is now at an all-time low. Slower earnings growth has also contributed to negative sentiment in the sector. Coatue's research shows that over the next twelve months, only 1% of SaaS companies expect 30% earnings growth, down from 30% during the SaaS boom. However, as human-machine interaction shifts towards natural language processing and generative AI, software companies that successfully integrate AI into their platforms are likely to thrive. As inflation cools, rate hikes ease, and prospects for a soft economic landing improve, AI's macroeconomic outlook remains strong. AI is now the primary driver of future earnings growth in the S&P 500. According to Coatue's projections, AI-linked stocks are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 20% over the next three years, outperforming non-AI stocks by approximately 14%. Additionally, 40% of future tech sector earnings are expected to be fueled by AI advancements. All available data points to a bright future for AI investments, with its influence extending far beyond traditional tech firms. As companies continue integrating AI into their operations, productivity and economic growth are set to accelerate, making AI one of the most transformative forces in modern history. For this article, we selected AI stocks by combing through a note on the AI industry by Coatue Management. These stocks are also popular among other hedge funds. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (). Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 193 NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) provides graphics, computing and networking solutions. In the report for the fourth quarter of 2024, GAAP earnings per diluted share was $4.93, showing an increase of 33% from the previous quarter and up 765% from a year ago. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $5.16, showing an increase of 28% from the previous quarter and up 486% from a year ago. These metrics indicate strong financial performance driven by higher revenues and improved margins, positioning the company for continued success. Also, record quarterly data center revenue was $18.4 billion, showing an increase of 27% from the third quarter, indicating heightened demand for data center products or services, possibly driven by trends like cloud computing expansion. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has also launched AI foundation Models for RTX AI PCs. These models offered as NVIDIA NIM microservices, are accelerated by new GeForce RTX 50 Series GPUs, which feature up to 3,352 trillion operations per second of AI performance and 32GB of VRAM. Overall, NVDA ranks 4th on our list of Coatue's most important AI stocks. While we acknowledge the potential of NVDA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for a stock that is more promising than NVDA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and Complete List of 59 AI Companies Under $2 Billion in Market Cap Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
