Latest news with #Joumanna
Bloomberg
10 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Are Trump's Policies Harming the Dollar's Reign?
Live on Bloomberg TV CC-Transcript 00:00So we have been on the show tracking the weakness of the USD over the course of this year. And I guess the question that people are is asking is whether this is just a temporary pullback in relation to the uncertainty surrounding economic policies stemming from the US, or is it a structural retrenchment and a real diversification play away from the USD that's taking place? Joumanna, that's the multi-trillion dollar question that everyone is indeed trying to answer. If history is any guide, definitely price for greenback weakness ahead. Just take a look at how the dollar's performed since President Donald Trump took office. 10% down versus the euro. The pound, the Swiss franc and a down against every major currency in the world. Definitely a consensus trade, whether you're in Tokyo, Singapore or Hong Kong or New York is indeed a bearish dollar positions. So definitely watch this space. It is a $7.5 trillion a day market, after all. And overwhelmingly, people are expecting dollar weakness ahead. Yeah. And there's something that you talk about in the book. Take this this concept of a vicious cycle. Weaker USD, obviously could be inflationary, could expand the deficits even even further. What is the potential for this vicious cycle to kick in in terms of amplifying the weakness that we're already seeing in this market? Another great question. Very much so. In focus is the sell America trade. And as you correctly pointed out, is there a risk of a vicious cycle? We have seen pockets of explosions, particularly in Asia, for example, to Taiwan. Last month, surging, South Korean, once surging as well. Now, these aren't just moving in isolation. These incidents have, you know, really brought to financial markets as a whole and will have impact on the US economy because, after all, global trade is global trade for a reason. So as the trade war intensifies, you know, and the US deficit situation doesn't improve, this will definitely be an area of focus where we could see a lot more stress ahead. Okay. So then the question becomes, what is the viable alternative to the USD? A lot of uncertainty still about the European growth prospects. We've seen money pour into gold. Even Bitcoin was at one point pitched as an alternative to the USD, but it doesn't obviously enjoy the same characteristics of safety and being a reliable medium of exchange. So where does the money go if it's not in the dollar? It's another great question and believe it or not, it is something that I debate with traders, fund managers and strategists virtually every single day from Singapore. What is the alternative to the dollar Now if we take a look at the breakdowns? Gold is definitely one that has been touted as a potential alternative. You've also got Euro, the second most traded currency in the world and yen as another. But how viable they are as a true alternative when you consider that a dollar is at 88% of all trades in the world. You know, it's certainly up for debate. People are certainly hunting for alternatives. Whether or not that Titanic moves from the dollar remains to be seen.
Bloomberg
12 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Oil Steadies as Mideast Escalation Concerns Continue
00:00 What is your analysis, your assessment right now of of the oil market adjustments around this with Brent up just just 2/10 of a percent, but at 60, $76 a barrel in the session today. How much how much risk premium is priced in at this point? Good morning, Tom. Yeah, I mean, the risk premium that you'll see is that almost 10% increase that you've seen. You mentioned since the assault started on Friday the 13th. And we did see a big jump at the start of trading this week when we had those first initial attacks on some energy infrastructure in Iran, albeit those were domestic facilities. So so we have seen that that risk premium built in. Arguably there was some risk premium already supporting prices anyway, as a lot of traders were saying that prices could have been lower than the roughly 60 to 65 range that we'd seen before. This because of some of the tension here in the region. But at that kind of $75 area where market is really not signaling that they're concerned about an interruption in supplies. So the market is hedging its bets for a little bit. But really, we are in completely uncharted territories because we are in the first time where there's this massive state on state conflict between countries like Iran and Israel. You know, just think about what Joumanna was speaking about before. We we're kind of passing social media posts from the president to try to figure out what U.S. policy is going to be. So so it's really a lot of a lot of guesswork here. The signals are, of course, if there's more U.S. military equipment coming to the region, if Trump is speaking with security team, that signals there could be more escalation. But this goes completely against what some of Trump's base and some of his domestic supporters want, and I think against his his intent in terms of avoiding war. So we really have to see whether he's going to take that step to make a major escalation. And from Iran's point of view, they clearly want to avoid that, that bringing to bear of more military force by the United States on them. So the question is, would they lash out even if the U.S. is supporting Israel with with arms and with some support, would they lash out against bases that would then bring the U.S.? And so we're really in uncharted territory in trying to figure out how this is going to happen. Will cooler heads, as it were, prevail in terms of keeping the conflict combined confined at least to those two states, or will it spread out? And that's where the real risk comes in for the oil market. If that spreads, if there's any interruption of supplies, if it spreads to other producing countries in the region, which those countries here are really at great pains to to avoid. So so that's that's really a lot of things that the market has to take in. But right now they're not signaling concern about supply to.
Bloomberg
13-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Turkey Tries to Leverage Its NATO Muscle
Live on Bloomberg TV CC-Transcript 00:00So, I mean, for a long time we've been talking about the potential accession process of Turkey into the EU. Is that conversation back on the table again? Just like you said, Joumanna, I think up until a few weeks ago discussing Turkey and EU relations or Turkey's membership to the bloc was not taken quite seriously. But the US administration's policy direction is making EU officials, I think, revisit that membership bid. That was apparent in a press conference yesterday between Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, where both leaders highlighted the importance of having Turkey part of the bloc. President Erdogan has repeatedly said over the last few days that an EU without Turkey is unthinkable and that Turkey can provide benefits to the bloc in terms of security and defence. And I think Turkey's narrow membership and its strategic location, as well as having the second largest army and NATO's, definitely making EU officials rethink their security alliances and their strategic alliances. Yeah, I mean, it's it's also a part of NATO's. And also Turkey has emerged as a major powerbroker within the Middle East region as well. And you've got Donald Trump testing that transatlantic alliance. So would you say it actually makes sense for closer ties between the EU and Turkey right now? I think there are a lot of factors for the EU Turkey relations to deepen. Like like we both mentioned. Turkey is a NATO member and has the second largest army. And under President Erdogan, Turkey's defence capabilities have flourished over the past two decades, with the president really pushing for locally produced arms, whether that be, you know, drones or armoured vehicles or missiles. So the defence abilities are definitely one of his strong cards in terms of its location. So Turkey has traditionally straddled the east and the West and it has maintained good relations with both the Western allies as well as with Russia and China. And we've seen in the past how this geographical location made sense. It was a key actor in having Ukrainian grain be transported to international markets, for example. And Turkey and the EU would have a big economic relationship as well. The EU is Turkey's largest trade partner. Yeah, but that's not to say I think the relationship doesn't come without its challenges. We've seen a judicial crackdown in Turkey and that has in the past drawn the ire of the EU and has been a concern.
